Speculation: 2023-24-25-26 Sharks Roster Discussion

[Star Platinum]

A deal involving Eklund for Byram as the main pieces, and picking up Stenberg is the way

 

[TheBeard]

they need to get past the BOS and PHI picks before they can "rebuild" "reset" whatever.... it actually lines up well with Matthews.

90% of me thinks this move was made so Boston doesn't get a premium pick.

Matthews is gonna play maybe 40 games this year. That back is in bad shape, similar to Mark Stone in that at any moment he could be put on LTIR. If that happens this team is vying for last place in the Atlantic again with or without another big season from Raddysh.

 

[weastern bias]

"A big #1C can create superstar wingers that are otherwise not all that good."

I wonder if Celebrini is exactly the same?

No need to wonder, we just saw it

Graf scored 20 goals and Sharks fans at large were tricked into thinking Regenda is an NHL player because Celebrini has the superpower of turning scrubs into goal scorers, he's like a magic trick out there

 

[zombie kopitar]

k

 

[Star Platinum]

The real win is only paying him for 4 years instead of 8

Carrying the husk of 35+ year old Raddysh for 4 extra seasons when we are trying to win with 24+ year old Celebrini in his prime would have been a painful anchor, at least Rielly has manageable term

I don't want Rielly on the team for $1M, let alone $7.5 because it means we're not trying hard enough to get a much better first line LHD. That gives you a left side defense of Rielly, Orlov, and Dickinson while figuring out what happens with Mukhamdullin. That's no better than the trainwreck we had last year.

 

[Star Platinum]

k

Wanting Stenberg is fine, but add another Eklund to Buffalo pipedream?

You got off light.

 

[weastern bias]

I don't want Rielly on the team for $1M, let alone $7.5 because it means we're not trying hard enough to get a much better first line LHD. That gives you a left side defense of Rielly, Orlov, and Dickinson while figuring out what happens with Mukhamdullin. That's no better than the trainwreck we had last year.

It's better than last year because Rielly takes over the role Klingberg occupied last year while actually being an NHL caliber skater

It's uninspiring, but I'd prefer an uninspiring move at a marginal acquisition cost with manageable term instead of chasing a homerun prematurely in the worst UFA class in recent memory while the roster isn't ready to compete anyway, that's the kind of move that can damage our eventual hopeful contention window like Edmonton did over and over to the McDavid timeline

Next year we'll be a middling team at best, I don't want to overinvest to chase immediate success at the expense of future success, we're still couple of seasons away from needing to make the big "go-for-it" move, staying patient and boring is the better long term plan for right now

 

[zombie kopitar]

Wanting Stenberg is fine, but add another Eklund to Buffalo pipedream?

You got off light.

alright hand me down a heavier sentence there sport, the whole board is on the edge of their seat waiting to see what you do next

 

[matt trick]

A deal involving Eklund for Byram as the main pieces, and picking up Stenberg is the way

I think we're going to bring in Byram, but still not a guarantee we go Stenberg.

Byram's no better than average defensively, but he'd be an excellent PMD. Although RD makes him more valuable, I think Reid reaching Byram's ceiling is a good forecast, but not a guarantee. I think he could be better, but if we took Reid and he ended up a #2 offensive guy with a big RH shot, that's not bad at 2OA. Byram's age is also ideal, and he can make Dickinson's life easier. There are a few other teams who may offer a more compelling now piece (Kyrou, McTavish, maybe Tippet or Wright, don't think Knies is viable, but they should take him if he is), but Eklund is one of the better options. If they use their cap elsewhere, we also have a lot of futures.

Byram has a few challenges. He wants PP1 time (this was reported, it aligns with the mindset of elite athletes; but only confirmed by Servalli). He will cost real assets, and Buff prefers someone who can help now. He will cost significant ACV (north of $9.5M, perhaps as much as $11M). One of these will put off most teams, but not all.

Some Buff fans like Eklund, others don't. If we were to move him, I'm not 100% convinced we go Stenberg. Verhoeff (trade down or otherwise) could still be a good pick. Long-term, it's not perfect, but there's a pretty good collection of skating, size, offensive ability, and potential shutdown guys. I like Carels too, but we'd still be light at RD.

Now:
Byram-Kesselring
Orlov-Muk
Dickinson-Desharnis

Future:
Byram-Kesselring (offensive)
Dickinson-Verhoeff (shutdown)
Muk-Pohlkamp (soft minutes)

With no Stenberg, I think we still have four 1st liners of the future (including Cherny) and a good trio on the third line with Wenny, Graf, and Sherwood. Maybe Musty makes it, but if not those top 6 spots would be coveted by top UFA forwards/trade requests.

Maybe we go full Sabre-Sharks and add Tuch, Byram, and Kesselring.

 

[TheBeard]

Team isn't bringing in any other young-ish D-man. Grier is drafting Reid and gonna let Kesserling show what he can do before signing him to a decent contract. He's not bringing in anyone else that's gonna need a new deal.

 

[Star Platinum]

Team isn't bringing in any other young-ish D-man. Grier is drafting Reid and gonna let Kesserling show what he can do before signing him to a decent contract. He's not bringing in anyone else that's gonna need a new deal.

How is Kesselring going to show what he can do before July 1?

 

[TheBeard]

How is Kesselring going to show what he can do before July 1?

He’s gonna file for arbitration and play on a one year prove it deal going into UFA. One of the main reasons Buffalo wanted to move him. They didn’t want to go through the arbitration process and he wanted more playing time to maximize his potential earnings. A younger Raddysh if you will.

 

[weastern bias]

He’s gonna file for arbitration and play on a one year prove it deal going into UFA. One of the main reasons Buffalo wanted to move him. They didn’t want to go through the arbitration process and he wanted more playing time to maximize his potential earnings. A younger Raddysh if you will.

If this happens I will retroactively be upset with the trade

Moving down in the 1st round, even late in the 1st, for a potential 1 year rental on a non playoff team is poor asset management

 

[matt trick]

He’s gonna file for arbitration and play on a one year prove it deal going into UFA. One of the main reasons Buffalo wanted to move him. They didn’t want to go through the arbitration process and he wanted more playing time to maximize his potential earnings. A younger Raddysh if you will.

Assuming you're referring to Byram?

When your a 26 year-old and have $4M in career earnings (probably $1.5-1.8M banked), and just put up two points in a year, you definitely feel the call to secure the bag.

Buff didn't have the space to risk signing him long-term. SJ does. Buff also has some org quality D depth.

Grier was in on Dobson (they wanted #2). I'd be surprised if he feels that role has been solved by Kesselring.

I agree that Reid+Byram doesn't make a huge amount of sense, though it could work through Reid's D+4. In such a scenario, I think Verhoeff, or Stenberg become the likely pick.

 

[TheBeard]

If this happens I will retroactively be upset with the trade

Moving down in the 1st round, even late in the 1st, for a potential 1 year rental on a non playoff team is poor asset management

I ultimately think they come to a 2 year compromise.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

He’s gonna file for arbitration and play on a one year prove it deal going into UFA. One of the main reasons Buffalo wanted to move him. They didn’t want to go through the arbitration process and he wanted more playing time to maximize his potential earnings. A younger Raddysh if you will.

If he files for arbitration, the team is going to make it two years.

 

[Star Platinum]

He’s gonna file for arbitration and play on a one year prove it deal going into UFA. One of the main reasons Buffalo wanted to move him. They didn’t want to go through the arbitration process and he wanted more playing time to maximize his potential earnings. A younger Raddysh if you will.

NHL insider reveals reason Sabres traded Michael Kesselring to Sharks

My first preference wouldn't be a one year deal, but it's not a good year for him to go the arbitration amount. I don't think he'd get much of a figure coming off of injury with a 2 point year. If I'm Grier and he really wants a one year deal, I'd give him a bit of a good faith offer and offer him somewhere in the $3M for one year range to start things off on the right foot to say "we want you here and you're gonna get every opportunity to prove you're a Top 4 guy."

 

[zombie kopitar]

I think we're going to bring in Byram, but still not a guarantee we go Stenberg.

Byram's no better than average defensively, but he'd be an excellent PMD. Although RD makes him more valuable, I think Reid reaching Byram's ceiling is a good forecast, but not a guarantee. I think he could be better, but if we took Reid and he ended up a #2 offensive guy with a big RH shot, that's not bad at 2OA. Byram's age is also ideal, and he can make Dickinson's life easier. There are a few other teams who may offer a more compelling now piece (Kyrou, McTavish, maybe Tippet or Wright, don't think Knies is viable, but they should take him if he is), but Eklund is one of the better options. If they use their cap elsewhere, we also have a lot of futures.

That's a likely outcome for Reid, and imo a reason why picking him over Stenberg is not pragmatic. Especially when we have the assets to acquire Byram (or someone else like Nemec,Spence, ect).

I like a trade down for Verhoeff more than picking Reid as well fwiw, I just think passing on an NHL ready winger with huge upside for a lotto ticket dman is not the move. Waiting 4+ years for a dude to maybe develop into a #1 d-man is by no means a horrible thing, i'd be happy for the talent, but we already have that in Dicky, 2 years ahead, there's not a single guy in this draft who profiles much different than him.

 

[weastern bias]

I ultimately think they come to a 2 year compromise.

I think we're giving him a contract everyone thinks looks stupid like we did with Sherwood but the cap spike will mitigate the long term risk and in the end he'll be decent value

I can't imagine we give him fewer than 5 years after Grier stuck his neck out to target him specifically

 

[TheBeard]

Assuming you're referring to Byram?

When your a 26 year-old and have $4M in career earnings (probably $1.5-1.8M banked), and just put up two points in a year, you definitely feel the call to secure the bag.

Buff didn't have the space to risk signing him long-term. SJ does. Buff also has some org quality D depth.

Grier was in on Dobson (they wanted #2). I'd be surprised if he feels that role has been solved by Kesselring.

I agree that Reid+Byram doesn't make a huge amount of sense, though it could work through Reid's D+4. In such a scenario, I think Verhoeff, or Stenberg become the likely pick.

I was referring to Kesser.

 

[TheBeard]

I think we're giving him a contract everyone thinks looks stupid like we did with Sherwood but the cap spike will mitigate the long term risk and in the end he'll be decent value

I can't imagine we give him fewer than 5 years after Grier stuck his neck out to target him specifically

Grier has never signed anyone because of potential. Everyone has had a track record of sorts.

 

[sampler]

Mario Lemieux was great at turning scrubs like Rob Brown and crackheads like Kevin Stevens into world beaters.

Exactly. I wish Smith and Celly were not such close friends, because I could see Smith being worth a fortune on the trade market, but I actually don't think he's all that good at hockey. Without Celly, I bet he's a serviceable middle six winger, good hockey IQ, vision, an shot, but slow as molasses and soft.

Jumbo creating Cheechoo helped us land heatley. Jumbo creating Seto helped land Burns.

I wonder if Celebrini can serve a similar purpose? The sharks have so much great young players, but we cannot afford to keep them all if they all explode. Fair long term estimates include 15+ for celly, 10+ smith, 10+ misa, 10+ Stenberg?, 10+ dick, 5+ graf, 8+ cherny, 8+ asky....

obviously, some of those guys may not develop into high level players, but if enough do, the sharks will find the cap to be a big problem in 4 years, just as Dallas is running into issues with Robertson. However, if Celly can create a star out of a few of those guys, then grier can strategically trade one or two for a giant futures package to ensure mutiple ELC players each year. It feels like the key to long term (10-20 years) competitive rosters centers around either consistently finding incredible under the radar value plays (like Raddysh, Walker, or Gostisbehere), or trading overvalued guys for nice packages.

Wonder if grier can take advantage of the Celebrini/Thornton effect to keep a steady stream of top picks ad good young players on ELCs providing key cap value.

 

[TheBeard]

NHL insider reveals reason Sabres traded Michael Kesselring to Sharks

My first preference wouldn't be a one year deal, but it's not a good year for him to go the arbitration amount. I don't think he'd get much of a figure coming off of injury with a 2 point year. If I'm Grier and he really wants a one year deal, I'd give him a bit of a good faith offer and offer him somewhere in the $3M for one year range to start things off on the right foot to say "we want you here and you're gonna get every opportunity to prove you're a Top 4 guy."

He would be thrilled with that knowing he’s gonna get every opportunity to produce going into UFA. It would be a massive miss for Grier if this happens.

 

[Patty Ice]

This F-ing sucks! I woulda been thrilled with that raddysh deal!! The first 4 (ages 30-33) years are at a very nice number relative to likely performance. A #1 RHD who can play 23 mins/gm and put up 60+ pts is worth way more than 8.5. The last 3 years (ages 35-37) will be an albatross, but by that point 8.5M will be more like 5-6M in relative dead space. Not that big a loss for a #1 RHD for the next few years. I woulda been happy to see grier do a 5 x 10M, but oh well....

Of course, this also confirms the risk averse Grier thesis. Grier is just not a guy who will take any real risk. His deals (for external players, not mack) at this stage are just shorter and smaller. He's not a guy who hands out 70M contracts to 30 year olds.

Toronto will try to trade Rielly, but Grier wont eat 7.5 x 4 for a 32 year old mediocre guy. He won't be coming here unless toronto retains half the salary and adds a sweetener.

The one good news of this deal is 8.5M is not a huge cap hit for a D who put up over 20 goals and 70 pts. Could make other D (like trouba) far cheaper. Still, Trouba is not a Grier guy as he too will command 4+ years at 32 years old. If Grier can land trouba for 2 x 9M per, that would be perfect for our cap structure (we have TONS of space this year and netx, but not in 3-4+ years), but I doubt it.

Looks like you have a dozen or two off-season plans to revise.

 

[weastern bias]

Grier has never signed anyone because of potential. Everyone has had a track record of sorts.

Kesselring does have a track record of success in Arizona and Utah as well as winning gold at the WHC under Warsofsky, last year was the off season that I think Grier sees as an aberration