Speculation: - 2023-24-25-26 Sharks Roster Discussion | Page 1315 | HFBoards - NHL Message Board and Forum for National Hockey League
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Speculation: 2023-24-25-26 Sharks Roster Discussion

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It looks more and more likely to me that Spence is the type of ideal Grier target. Or a guy like Murphy on a 2 year deal.

Of course, if that turns out right, I wonder what grier is gunna do with all the cap space next year? We have 40M right now: graf will be around 5. Kessel around 4. Mukh around 3. Osty around 1-2. That would give the sharks 13 forwards, 5D, and both goalies and still around 25+M in cap space. Even adding spence and resigning Desi would leave us with 17+M in space. Would stink to just waste it.... Any bad 1 year deals grier can take to get more assets?

Pietrangelo from VGK for a 3rd round pick thsi year would be an intriguing grier-like move. Vegas needs to clear his salary to resign andersson, so they will want to move him for sure. Word is that he wants to come back from injury making moving him even more essential as he cant be buried on IR. If he can return, he's a perfect add for the sharks given his 1 year term, cup winning pedigree, RHD. He'd be the new, shinier Klingberg. Worst case for the sharks, we get a 3rd round pick for using cap space we wouldn't be using otherwise.

*Edit: to be clear, the 3rd rounder is FROM vegas. i.e.: the sharks get it in exchange for taking Piet's salary. Akin to the price or ellis type move.
 
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sampler said:
I didnt know about Raddysh's connection to toronto. I would bet grier was not anywhere in the ballpark on raddysh. I bet he never really inquired. Grier doesnt want a 30 year old on a 7+ year contract. too risky.
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Again Grier and the sharks aren’t a factor in this at all. This isn’t because Grier didn’t check in or ask or whatever.

Raddysh wanted to stay east. Be closer to home and make money. Living on the other side of North America clearly was a non starter.

Maybe Grier asked his agent, I would expect he did in fact because that’s the job… but the reason you didn’t hear noise about him to the sharks was clearly it was a non starter.

Again this has nothing to do with Grier and what contract he was willing or not willing to give.

If people want to find stuff to pass judgement on Grier for… there is plenty of things to. This isn’t one of them.
 
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Hodge said:
AFP undershot their Raddysh contract projection by 25% on term and 5.44% on AAV

If we assume their Trouba projection is off by the same amount he should get 5x6.75M

I'd rather do that than trade for Rielly or Nurse tbh
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Unfortunately I think Trouba gets a Ken Holland special, like $9Mx6

He's exactly the guy we should target in UFA
 
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sampler said:
Why would grier take on 4 years and big $ for a 32 year old, let alone give up something of value? Doesnt fit the timeline at all! you guys think grier was a 7.5M cap hit on a 35/36 year old just when he needs the space for the kids? I don't understand this unless Toronto retains ~50% and the cap hit is around 4M.
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I don't particularly want him, however, I thought OEL was washed and he just put up a great season at 33. Same with Fowler. Getting out of Toronto will be good for him. I think the fans, the pressure, and the history of failing sucks to deal with. I also think some of their stars quit on the coach. SJ would be a breath of fresh air.

I think he'll be a legit top 4 d-man and PMD for the next 2, maybe 3 years. He'd be our best d-man this year and perhaps the following one. If he's on the team for 3 years, I don't think he'll be the reason we can't retain a key player.

In year 4, you might have to buy him out (4M savings, $2M penalty the following year), or trade him at 50% to a team in need of a vet and some cap ($3.75M savings, $6M salary) when he has a 10 team NTC.

Compared to Raddysh it's lower upside, but also quite a bit lower downside.

I'd rather we spend assets for Byram (provided he's available) or try in free agency (if he gets there), while using someone like Trouba on a 3 year deal.
 
sampler said:
Why would grier take on 4 years and big $ for a 32 year old, let alone give up something of value? Doesnt fit the timeline at all! you guys think grier was a 7.5M cap hit on a 35/36 year old just when he needs the space for the kids? I don't understand this unless Toronto retains ~50% and the cap hit is around 4M.
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Because 7.5 isnt big money now.... the key is is term. He gets 4 years at 7.5M. He likely cant sign a guy to a deal like that in FA.

Its an easy contract to get out of in year 3 and 4 because all the bonuses are paid etc.

There are plenty of reasons for Rielly. Also Rielly is from.... VAN (western canada)... what are the rumors, he wants to go west.
 
Hodge said:
Rielly definitely has positive value in this market
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Only if Toronto is willing to retain a sizable amount of his contract which it doesn't sound like they are willing to do. Rielly's age, NMC, contract length and amount make him a negative value asset. While he is much better than Klingburg, Rielly is not a premier dman even in the current market.

I'd look for something more like Gaudette and a late round pick (5th or 6th round) for Rielly and a 2nd or 3rd round pick. Sharks might throw in a token prospect like Landen or something along those lines.
 
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sampler said:
Why would grier take on 4 years and big $ for a 32 year old, let alone give up something of value? Doesnt fit the timeline at all! you guys think grier was a 7.5M cap hit on a 35/36 year old just when he needs the space for the kids? I don't understand this unless Toronto retains ~50% and the cap hit is around 4M.
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A worse Reilly for 4 years fits the timeline much better than Raddysh for 8.
 
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Got Mullet said:
Only if Toronto is willing to retain a sizable amount of his contract which it doesn't sound like they are willing to do. Rielly's age, NMC, contract length and amount make him a negative value asset. While he is much better than Klingburg, Rielly is not a premier dman even in the current market.

I'd look for something more like Gaudette and a late round pick (5th or 6th round) for Rielly and a 2nd or 3rd round pick. Sharks might throw in a token prospect like Landen or something along those lines.
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Rielly doesn't have a great amount of trade value but it's positive. At the very least those picks would be going in the opposite directions.
 
Total change of subject... I was musing last night on the Thornton effect:

"A big #1C can create superstar wingers that are otherwise not all that good."

The Thornton effect created major trade value for Cheechoo, Setoguchi, and others. Thornton made Marleau into a 70-80 player when he was rally a 50-60 pt player naturally. A great GM can recognize the Thornton effect and sell his wingers for high value allowing future asset accumulation while being competitive for the entire career of that 1C

I wonder if Celebrini is exactly the same? I wonder how good Smith is on his own? Or how mnay of Graf's points last year were after he was paired with celly. it feels like whoever plays on celly's wing is gunna go off, and when they do, grier can flip them for big futures and keep the party going for Mack's entire career.
 
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Would the Sabres 1st for Spence and Florida 3rd be appealing? I don't particularly love the offerings at 27OA and Spence is probably worth around a second. Just spitballing here.
 
sampler said:
Total change of subject... I was musing last night on the Thornton effect:

"A big #1C can create superstar wingers that are otherwise not all that good."

The Thornton effect created major trade value for Cheechoo, Setoguchi, and others. Thornton made Marleau into a 70-80 player when he was rally a 50-60 pt player naturally. A great GM can recognize the Thornton effect and sell his wingers for high value allowing future asset accumulation while being competitive for the entire career of that 1C

I wonder if Celebrini is exactly the same? I wonder how good Smith is on his own? Or how mnay of Graf's points last year were after he was paired with celly. it feels like whoever plays on celly's wing is gunna go off, and when they do, grier can flip them for big futures and keep the party going for Mack's entire career.
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Mario Lemieux was great at turning scrubs like Rob Brown and crackheads like Kevin Stevens into world beaters.
 
SJS1991 said:
I wouldn’t read into this deal. The rumors are Raddysh wanted to stay east and be near home… Ontario Canada.

The rumors are that he (Raddysh) wanted TOR… when he told the TBL he wasn’t resigning, they did what smart teams do and got something for nothing.

This has nothing to do with SJ or Grier… and their lack of anything.
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Clearly Toronto has no tax issue like California
 
Shark Finn said:
30 year-old and breakthrough season, gee, I wonder what could go wrong. Not necessarily saying it will, but still. I wonder what number will Morgan Rielly wear for us?
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greta-thunberg-how-dare-you.gif
 
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SJS1991 said:
they are... they cant rebuild. All of their draft picks belong to BOS and PHI. They need to try and be good this year and next.

Cant just hand them top 10 picks.
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They should have just bit the bullet because this move doesn't make them anything more than a fringe wildcard team. If they were smart they start the teardown next year.
 
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sampler said:
This F-ing sucks! I woulda been thrilled with that raddysh deal!! The first 4 (ages 30-33) years are at a very nice number relative to likely performance. A #1 RHD who can play 23 mins/gm and put up 60+ pts is worth way more than 8.5. The last 3 years (ages 35-37) will be an albatross, but by that point 8.5M will be more like 5-6M in relative dead space. Not that big a loss for a #1 RHD for the next few years. I woulda been happy to see grier do a 5 x 10M, but oh well....

Of course, this also confirms the risk averse Grier thesis. Grier is just not a guy who will take any real risk. His deals (for external players, not mack) at this stage are just shorter and smaller. He's not a guy who hands out 70M contracts to 30 year olds.

Toronto will try to trade Rielly, but Grier wont eat 7.5 x 4 for a 32 year old mediocre guy. He won't be coming here unless toronto retains half the salary and adds a sweetener.

The one good news of this deal is 8.5M is not a huge cap hit for a D who put up over 20 goals and 70 pts. Could make other D (like trouba) far cheaper. Still, Trouba is not a Grier guy as he too will command 4+ years at 32 years old. If Grier can land trouba for 2 x 9M per, that would be perfect for our cap structure (we have TONS of space this year and netx, but not in 3-4+ years), but I doubt it.
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Calm down. Raddysh most likely wanted to play for his hometown team and wasn't interested in re-upping with us.

And if I'm Raddysh I'd much prefer the 8x8.5M over 5x10M because he's likely to turn into a pumpkin by the time he's 35 and not get another contract afterwards.
 
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Star Platinum said:
Not that I wanted to give Raddysh an 8 year deal, but if he's playing in Toronto for $8.5 million and Rielly is playing here for $1M less, I am going to throw a hissy fit the likes of which have never been seen.
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The real win is only paying him for 4 years instead of 8

Carrying the husk of 35+ year old Raddysh for 4 extra seasons when we are trying to win with 24+ year old Celebrini in his prime would have been a painful anchor, at least Rielly has manageable term
 
TheBeard said:
They should have just bit the bullet because this move doesn't make them anything more than a fringe wildcard team. If they were smart they start the teardown next year.
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they need to get past the BOS and PHI picks before they can "rebuild" "reset" whatever.... it actually lines up well with Matthews.
 
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