2023-24 #2: Phantoms (AHL), Reading Royals (ECHL), NCAA, Jrs., Int'l, etc.

[Jersey Fan 12]

Pretty down on the pecking order - and doesn't seem like too many fans on here follow the Royals - but the signing of goalie Vinnie Purpura is intriguing. He was 15-4-4 for Adirondack last year before suffering a season-ending injury.

Given the current goalie situation in Lehigh Valley it would be interesting to see if he goes to camp with the Phantoms as well.

 

[GKJ]

 

[BernieParent]

Bernard: 6'5", 205 lb. 16 points and 92 PIM in 64 ECHL games last season. Shocking, I know.

RHD Sedley's numbers look interesting: 112 points over 3 seasons with Owen Sound (194 games), and he participated in the previous two Flyers Development Camps. He's only 21, and I'd much rather spend a Phantoms slot on him than a 30-year-old career AHLer.

 

[Fight4yourRight]

Bernard: 6'5", 205 lb. 16 points and 92 PIM in 64 ECHL games last season. Shocking, I know.

RHD Sedley's numbers look interesting: 112 points over 3 seasons with Owen Sound (194 games), and he participated in the previous two Flyers Development Camps. He's only 21, and I'd much rather spend a Phantoms slot on him than a 30-year-old career AHLer.

You have to keep Deslauriers on his toes somehow.

 

[deadhead]

Bernard: 6'5", 205 lb. 16 points and 92 PIM in 64 ECHL games last season. Shocking, I know.

RHD Sedley's numbers look interesting: 112 points over 3 seasons with Owen Sound (194 games), and he participated in the previous two Flyers Development Camps. He's only 21, and I'd much rather spend a Phantoms slot on him than a 30-year-old career AHLer.

Probably Reading bound, but you need enough at Reading for call-ups due to injury and/or promotions from LHV to the main club.

 

[GKJ]

 

[Rebels57]

Zoom Drain? The jokes continually write themselves.

 

[Fight4yourRight]

Zoom Drain? The jokes continually write themselves.

Don’t laugh. It’s what Flahr uses to solve all his post-buffet plugged toilet needs.

 

[BigToe]

 

[BillDineen]

Many of the scouts remain from this period as well.

 

[freakydallas13]

Genuinely surprised it was only 50%,

 

[deadhead]

Meaningless number. Bader doesn't give any context, how draft picks from each group is distributed, and the success rate at each point in the draft. Since his tiers are basically based on scoring at lower levels, obviously Tier 1 will be very successful at the top of the draft. But after that ????

 

[VladDrag]

Meaningless number. Bader doesn't give any context, how draft picks from each group is distributed, and the success rate at each point in the draft. Since his tiers are basically based on scoring at lower levels, obviously Tier 1 will be very successful at the top of the draft. But after that ????

Backread a few pages. He posted the groups a little back.

 

[deadhead]

Backread a few pages. He posted the groups a little back.

Yes. But what he doesn't do is a breakdown by group and draft position.

What you want to know is the predictive value of those groups at various points in the draft.

Group 5 is going to have a low hit rate overall, because most of the players in Group 5 aren't very good, but the back of the draft will be dominated by these guys b/c better players are gone.

However, a group 5 guy taken early may indicate a late bloomer that scouts have noted - so you want to see the success rates at various points in the draft.

I don't think Bader is much of an analytics guy, seems more like some guy with a spreadsheet doing percentages. Mabye I'm wrong about him, but it's going to take a look under the hood and not just some numbers thrown out there without context.

 

[VladDrag]

Yes. But what he doesn't do is a breakdown by group and draft position.

What you want to know is the predictive value of those groups at various points in the draft.

Group 5 is going to have a low hit rate overall, because most of the players in Group 5 aren't very good, but the back of the draft will be dominated by these guys b/c better players are gone.

However, a group 5 guy taken early may indicate a late bloomer that scouts have noted - so you want to see the success rates at various points in the draft.

I don't think Bader is much of an analytics guy, seems more like some guy with a spreadsheet doing percentages. Mabye I'm wrong about him, but it's going to take a look under the hood and not just some numbers thrown out there without context.

He’s a data guy - look at his linked in profile. He has a master in stats, and he’s been in the professional realm of analytics/stats/research since 2007.

 

[BernieParent]

So is this a reasonable -- actual, not ideal -- estimated Phantoms line-up? I prioritized signed players and plugged in the best options of the RFAs.

Forwards

Olle Lycksell - Jacob Gaucher - Cooper Marody

Rhett Gardner - Massimo Rizzo - Samu Tuomaala

Jon-Randall Avon - Anthony Richard - Alexis Gendron

Elliot Desnoyers - Rodrigo Abols - Sawyer Boulton

Zayde Wisdom

Defense

Emil Andrae - Ronnie Attard

Hunter McDonald - Helge Grans

Adam Ginning - Ethan Samson

Xavier Bernard - Sam Sedley

Goal

Cal Petersen

Keith Petruzelli

Parker Gagahen

Alexei Kolosov ???

 

[renberg]

So is this a reasonable -- actual, not ideal -- estimated Phantoms line-up? I prioritized signed players and plugged in the best options of the RFAs.

Forwards

Olle Lycksell - Jacob Gaucher - Cooper Marody

Rhett Gardner - Massimo Rizzo - Samu Tuomaala

Jon-Randall Avon - Anthony Richard - Alexis Gendron

Elliot Desnoyers - Rodrigo Abols - Sawyer Boulton

Zayde Wisdom

Defense

Emil Andrae - Ronnie Attard

Hunter McDonald - Helge Grans

Adam Ginning - Ethan Samson

Xavier Bernard - Sam Sedley

Goal

Cal Petersen

Keith Petruzelli

Parker Gagahen

Alexei Kolosov ???

If Kolosov was in goal, could that lineup beat the Flyers?

 

[ponder719]

If Kolosov was in goal, could that lineup beat the Flyers?

I'm fairly certain Michkov could beat that lineup by himself, so no.

If he was having a maintenance day, well, coin flip.

 

[deadhead]

He’s a data guy - look at his linked in profile. He has a master in stats, and he’s been in the professional realm of analytics/stats/research since 2007.

Then he should be doing something more sophisticated than look - here's an aggregate %.
He gives no details, simple regression? What variables? What's the SD?

I mean I don't need any statistical analysis to note that players who score more at lower levels, on average, will have a higher probability of success. But correlation isn't causation.

Now a problem at lower levels is obtaining stats, it's hard even to find minutes played, but if that's the reason for a simple approach, say so, point out its impact on the validity of any correlation, etc.

 

[Doodootheclown]

both rookie games sold out in under 5 minutes

 

[VladDrag]

Then he should be doing something more sophisticated than look - here's an aggregate %.
He gives no details, simple regression? What variables? What's the SD?

I mean I don't need any statistical analysis to note that players who score more at lower levels, on average, will have a higher probability of success. But correlation isn't causation.

Now a problem at lower levels is obtaining stats, it's hard even to find minutes played, but if that's the reason for a simple approach, say so, point out its impact on the validity of any correlation, etc.

I'm not saying there shouldn't be more information given, but I'm giving him the benefit of the doubt, given his history, that they are not just random numbers compiled on a spreadsheet.

 

[deadhead]

I'm not saying there shouldn't be more information given, but I'm giving him the benefit of the doubt, given his history, that they are not just random numbers compiled on a spreadsheet.

I'd be more generous if he didn't post everything with the presumption of "I'm so smart, . . . "
There's some really impressive analytics that have been done by "amateurs," some of whom are now on NHL teams. From what I've seen posted from him, I don't put Bader in that tier.

After reading empirical econometrics and prediction models for forty years, my sense is that it's really hard, and anyone in any field who thinks they have a superior model should develop a little humility.

Weather forecasting is now pretty accurate out to 3-5 days, and there's hope AI might extend this out to a week, after that, errors dominate.

Most futures markets only go 1-2 years out at most, because investors don't trust predictions past that mark.

My favorite quote: "All models are wrong, but some are useful." [George E.P. Box]
How useful a model is depends on both how wrong and what use.

 

[BringBackHakstol]

No, there's no way the Flyers aren't doing things correctly. Inconceivable.

 

[Doodootheclown]

both rookie games sold out in under 5 minutes

Was able to get tickets now? With plenty of options. Maybe they limited it early on or something

 

[VladDrag]

I'd be more generous if he didn't post everything with the presumption of "I'm so smart, . . . "
There's some really impressive analytics that have been done by "amateurs," some of whom are now on NHL teams. From what I've seen posted from him, I don't put Bader in that tier.

After reading empirical econometrics and prediction models for forty years, my sense is that it's really hard, and anyone in any field who thinks they have a superior model should develop a little humility.

Weather forecasting is now pretty accurate out to 3-5 days, and there's hope AI might extend this out to a week, after that, errors dominate.

Most futures markets only go 1-2 years out at most, because investors don't trust predictions past that mark.

My favorite quote: "All models are wrong, but some are useful." [George E.P. Box]
How useful a model is depends on both how wrong and what use.

Pot, meet kettle.