2023-24 #2: Phantoms (AHL), Reading Royals (ECHL), NCAA, Jrs., Int'l, etc.

[thedjpd]

Interesting. He might be shy and appreciated the support of his parents? Maybe he fell because he is introverted and not an alpha dog? IDK. Regardless, given what he shows on the ice, I’d have preferred if the Flyers picked him. It still stings that they passed.

That said, I have no choice but to cheer for Jett and hope the Flyers made a less than terrible….maybe even somewhat good decision.

Agreed, I'd rather have Buium.

But the one thing that seems to be consistent about Luchanko - every where he's playing where pros finally start "watching him" (as in, not pre-draft scouting reports and highlights) - they are already changing their tune about his ability and talent. It's a little surprising in this day and age, but maybe he just did fly a bit under the radar?

I mean, people 'saw tape' - including the Flyers beats - but when they watched him at dev camp, were like 'whoa, wait a minute, this guy's got serious talent.'

Then at the WJSS, many of the national beats were already like 'dude is making a serious case to be on the WJC team" - and he's not 18 yet.

I mean, I know it sucks to give the Flyers credit, and really the only way they would get a ton here is if Buium flops and Luchanko excels (of which I don't see the former happening), but maybe they actually did have them rated similarly (read: accurately) and just went with the C?

I dunno. Feels weird to give them much credit, and it still seemed like too risky of a bet, but let's hope they are right.

 

[Sizzle Chest]

I hope both players have great careers. They can’t change where teams drafted them and do not deserve to bear the weight of decisions made/not made by organizations filled with professionals whose job it is to figure out draft order who may/may not have gotten it right.

These are 17 & 18 year old kids. And knuckleheads like us on chat boards are critiquing their likelihood of success and failure.

The irony will be when Buium refuses to sign with Minnesota and signs with the Flyers as a free agent out of college, haha.

 

[Ghosts Beer]

Agreed, I'd rather have Buium.

But the one thing that seems to be consistent about Luchanko - every where he's playing where pros finally start "watching him" (as in, not pre-draft scouting reports and highlights) - they are already changing their tune about his ability and talent. It's a little surprising in this day and age, but maybe he just did fly a bit under the radar?

I mean, people 'saw tape' - including the Flyers beats - but when they watched him at dev camp, were like 'whoa, wait a minute, this guy's got serious talent.'

Then at the WJSS, many of the national beats were already like 'dude is making a serious case to be on the WJC team" - and he's not 18 yet.

I mean, I know it sucks to give the Flyers credit, and really the only way they would get a ton here is if Buium flops and Luchanko excels (of which I don't see the former happening), but maybe they actually did have them rated similarly (read: accurately) and just went with the C?

I dunno. Feels weird to give them much credit, and it still seemed like too risky of a bet, but let's hope they are right.

I hadn't watched any Luchanko because he had no hype, especially as a top 12 pick.

So I watched a lot of video of him after the pick to get to know him, and I loved him. He could fly, had a great motor, and tremendous vision and passing abilities.

This guy really flew under the radar because at the beginning of the season wasn't on any early top draft prospects lists, was one of the youngest players in the draft, almost eligible for next year's draft instead, and sneaked up on everyone by getting better and better throughout the season on a mediocre team.

He also seems to be a real character kid, smart, well-spoken, a fitness nut, and blew away athletic testing at the combine and prospects game.

And, yes, it's true, the Flyers need centers. So I really like the pick. I think he's only scratching the surface and is going to explode with a huge next season.

This kid could easily be something akin to a Dylan Larkin or faster Mike Richards.

 

[JojoTheWhale]

Now the Flyers beats are meaningful prospect evaluators. There is no bottom.

It's the same argument as Gauthier all over again with the same people not listening to what is mostly being said. Luchanko was a consensus 1st rounder. No one reasonable is calling him anything less than a good prospect. There's something seriously wrong if he's not clearly more skilled than almost everyone attending something on the level of a dev camp.

 

[renberg]

Being on a poor team doesn’t help a player gain notoriety. He ends up being viewed as one of the also rans. Then he gets placed with some guys who have talent and his own level pops. He can do some nice things but I want to see him show a better shot.

 

[thedjpd]

Now the Flyers beats are meaningful prospect evaluators. There is no bottom.

It's the same argument as Gauthier all over again with the same people not listening to what is mostly being said. Luchanko was a consensus 1st rounder. No one reasonable is calling him anything less than a good prospect. There's something seriously wrong if he's not clearly more skilled than almost everyone attending something on the level of a dev camp.

I'm not sure if you were trying to be condescending here, and nobody called them top notch evaluators. They are no better than you or me making said evaluations, but this forum certainly makes these projections with certainty don't they? Zuium is an all around, no doubt about it #1 D-Man, and Luchanko is just a middle 6 center. Said with 100% confidence.

At the WJSS, it was the same scouts that 'created the rankings' that everybody is so attached to here making similar praise-worthy comments; so maybe, just maybe, there's more to the picture.

The logic is absolutely fanatical: the scouts are 100% right about Buium being a top 5 pick, perhaps best D in the draft (even though he was the 6th dman taken), and there's no logical explanation as to why he fell except "GMs are stoopid" - but these same evaluators of talent are 100% right in that Luchanko tops off as a "Scott Laughton."

Both, apparently, are true.

Being on a poor team doesn’t help a player gain notoriety. He ends up being viewed as one of the also rans. Then he gets placed with some guys who have talent and his own level pops. He can do some nice things but I want to see him show a better shot.

That's fair and he's been self-crticial on that too, and Flyers guidance. If you do not have any flaws, you are a consensus top 2 or 3 pick (and even still, flaws exist). This is where development comes. Whether we trust the Flyers or not to do it, is another question.

 

[renberg]

I'm not sure if you were trying to be condescending here, and nobody called them top notch evaluators. They are no better than you or me making said evaluations, but this forum certainly makes these projections with certainty don't they? Zuium is an all around, no doubt about it #1 D-Man, and Luchanko is just a middle 6 center. Said with 100% confidence.

At the WJSS, it was the same scouts that 'created the rankings' that everybody is so attached to here making similar praise-worthy comments; so maybe, just maybe, there's more to the picture.

The logic is absolutely fanatical: the scouts are 100% right about Buium being a top 5 pick, perhaps best D in the draft (even though he was the 6th dman taken), and there's no logical explanation as to why he fell except "GMs are stoopid" - but these same evaluators of talent are 100% right in that Luchanko tops off as a "Scott Laughton."

Both, apparently, are true.


That's fair and he's been self-crticial on that too, and Flyers guidance. If you do not have any flaws, you are a consensus top 2 or 3 pick (and even still, flaws exist). This is where development comes. Whether we trust the Flyers or not to do it, is another question.

And this is where the problems for the last decade begins. Development matters and with this organization, it stalls.
Luchanko has quicks; so does Morgan Frost. How has he been managed. IDK, perhaps Danny or Sharp can work with Luchanko and other forwards whose skill is in open ice to develop. All the present coaches want to do is create muckers and grinders. Silly to do that in a league where speed matters more than ever.

 

[deadhead]

There's a reason Frost went #27, even in a "redraft" 3 years later, Wheeler only had him at #20.
He's a good player but he doesn't play up to his speed and skill set, and I don't think it's about development, he's learned to play defense, he's improved in a number of aspects of his game.

But he doesn't have "it." He doesn't take over games. His motor runs hot and cold, I don't think it's a matter of effort, rather, he has a tendency to play passive instead of driving play. It may be something he grows out of, but at this point it's probably innate.

Three of his wings scored at a higher rate, TK, Farabee, and Tippett. So you can't blame his linemates.

 

[JojoTheWhale]

I'm not sure if you were trying to be condescending here, and nobody called them top notch evaluators. They are no better than you or me making said evaluations, but this forum certainly makes these projections with certainty don't they? Zuium is an all around, no doubt about it #1 D-Man, and Luchanko is just a middle 6 center. Said with 100% confidence.

I speak toward opinions, not people. Your attempt to brand everyone who posts here as a monolith is childish and a sign of an incomplete, emotional thought. I think you can do better than that.

I personally value the average beat writer’s opinion on a draft pick as utterly worthless because they’re mostly based on the opinions of others. The overwhelming majority of them are not out there grinding tape or looking into what does and doesn’t tend to translate. That has zero overlap with the job of being a beat.

I can not and will not speak for anyone else. Here’s what I posted in his thread immediately following the pick:

Like FLYguy said in the draft thread, there are some really good indicators of room for growth here. The problem is just doing it this early and passing Buium to do it.

It’s smartest team in the room disease. They seem completely comfortable drafting for 95th+ Percentile outcomes. No one can do that consistently.

My problem is with the team, not the player. My specific issues can be determined now because they are entirely constrained to the process. I hope he’s Yzerman. The only thing that mattered on draft day was the process, not the result.

 

[Ghosts Beer]

Being on a poor team doesn’t help a player gain notoriety. He ends up being viewed as one of the also rans. Then he gets placed with some guys who have talent and his own level pops. He can do some nice things but I want to see him show a better shot.

I agree I'd like to see a better shot, and use it more.

With his elite grip strength, he ought to be able to develop a good one. And indeed I saw a couple of promising clips of him from development camp where he really ripped it, so it appears he's been working on it.

 

[usahockey22flyers]

Agreed, I'd rather have Buium.

But the one thing that seems to be consistent about Luchanko - every where he's playing where pros finally start "watching him" (as in, not pre-draft scouting reports and highlights) - they are already changing their tune about his ability and talent. It's a little surprising in this day and age, but maybe he just did fly a bit under the radar?

I mean, people 'saw tape' - including the Flyers beats - but when they watched him at dev camp, were like 'whoa, wait a minute, this guy's got serious talent.'

Then at the WJSS, many of the national beats were already like 'dude is making a serious case to be on the WJC team" - and he's not 18 yet.

I mean, I know it sucks to give the Flyers credit, and really the only way they would get a ton here is if Buium flops and Luchanko excels (of which I don't see the former happening), but maybe they actually did have them rated similarly (read: accurately) and just went with the C?

I dunno. Feels weird to give them much credit, and it still seemed like too risky of a bet, but let's hope they are right.

Three things really stick out to me with Jett

1. We need more offense from him this year. No excuses
2. He doesn’t turn 18 for 2 more weeks - crazy!
3. Did you happen to watch Guelph this year? I didn’t see much but I was told they were so up and down. Do you know much about them next season? Will be fun to watch!

 

[thedjpd]

I speak toward opinions, not people. Your attempt to brand everyone who posts here as a monolith is childish and a sign of an incomplete, emotional thought. I think you can do better than that.

I personally value the average beat writer’s opinion on a draft pick as utterly worthless because they’re mostly based on the opinions of others. The overwhelming majority of them are not out there grinding tape or looking into what does and doesn’t tend to translate. That has zero overlap with the job of being a beat.

I can not and will not speak for anyone else. Here’s what I posted in his thread immediately following the pick:



My problem is with the team, not the player. My specific issues can be determined now because they are entirely constrained to the process. I hope he’s Yzerman. The only thing that mattered on draft day was the process, not the result.

Your statement of speaking towards only opinions, then proceeding to call my statement childish, and then further condescending that you think I can “do better” is quite inconsistent with your original premise. Regardless, I don’t think it’s particularly outlandish to call this board perhaps the most negative of any fanbase in our small corner of the internet, so regardless of poor delivery, it is still my opinion and not directed to any singular person.

Coming to beat writers - I don’t recall claiming that their opinions are infallible. What I did say, though, is that they were there at dev camp watching these players live. That’s a more substantial opinion than the majority of us watching clips - myself included. Then for that to be corroborated by the professionals (at least in part) watching the WJSS - some who generated their draft risks and rankings prior to the draft that we are referencing, is pretty solid validation.

Does it mean we made the right pick? Who knows. Not our job to be right. But it is Briere’s - and it does shed light as to what they saw and perhaps why they made that pick. Do I agree? Nope. Too risky to play with that high a pick, I’d have gone consensus as well. But again, it isn’t my job to be right - I’m just saying I can see their logic. And seemingly more and more are as well.

 

[JojoTheWhale]

Your statement of speaking towards only opinions, then proceeding to call my statement childish, and then further condescending that you think I can “do better” is quite inconsistent with your original premise. Regardless, I don’t think it’s particularly outlandish to call this board perhaps the most negative of any fanbase in our small corner of the internet, so regardless of poor delivery, it is still my opinion and not directed to any singular person.

Coming to beat writers - I don’t recall claiming that their opinions are infallible. What I did say, though, is that they were there at dev camp watching these players live. That’s a more substantial opinion than the majority of us watching clips - myself included. Then for that to be corroborated by the professionals (at least in part) watching the WJSS - some who generated their draft risks and rankings prior to the draft that we are referencing, is pretty solid validation.

Does it mean we made the right pick? Who knows. Not our job to be right. But it is Briere’s - and it does shed light as to what they saw and perhaps why they made that pick. Do I agree? Nope. Too risky to play with that high a pick, I’d have gone consensus as well. But again, it isn’t my job to be right - I’m just saying I can see their logic. And seemingly more and more are as well.

This is exactly what I mean when I say you’re not reading what’s being said to you. I’m saying one opinion where you keep finding new ways to lump everyone who posts here together while explaining that you’re not doing that is a lazy road to go down. The opinion. Not you. Please stop putting those words in my mouth.

The people that put time into watching full games of players often put those opinions out there before the draft. Some players are discussed in more depth than others, but the point is that there is a chasm between opinions that say generic claptrap like “good passer” and those with specifics about the leveraging of specific attributes. People used to say the prospect version of Phil Myers was big. That’s utterly useless regurgitation anyone with a web broswer can find. Tell me specific ways in which we leverages that. Does he break up a lot of entries at the line with his reach maybe? The more we lump the former in with the latter, the more we dumb down the general discourse and everyone loses. We can all collectively do much better than that. Beat writers give us useless generics. They’re paid to cover the daily goings on of the team for their audiences.

As far as the professionals thing, I would think we could move beyond that by now. There is enough info out there to understand all major sports are not exactly meritocracies. There are tons of qualified people who make their living in hockey and tons who should be nowhere near an org. Once again, generalizing misses the point entirely. These are largely billion dollar lemonade stands and should be treated as such.

 

[blackjackmulligan]

There's a reason Frost went #27, even in a "redraft" 3 years later, Wheeler only had him at #20.
He's a good player but he doesn't play up to his speed and skill set, and I don't think it's about development, he's learned to play defense, he's improved in a number of aspects of his game.

But he doesn't have "it." He doesn't take over games. His motor runs hot and cold, I don't think it's a matter of effort, rather, he has a tendency to play passive instead of driving play. It may be something he grows out of, but at this point it's probably innate.

Three of his wings scored at a higher rate, TK, Farabee, and Tippett. So you can't blame his linemates.

I am not a Frost fan by any stretch of the imagination. Can you honestly say the coach has put him in a position to succeed on a full time basis? If yes would love to hear your explant ion.

 

[deadhead]

I am not a Frost fan by any stretch of the imagination. Can you honestly say the coach has put him in a position to succeed on a full time basis? If yes would love to hear your explant ion.

Last season he played with the best group of wings, Tippett (2.31), TK (2.28), Farabee (2.25).
Meanwhile Frost scored at a 1.77 rate.
You can't get in a much better "position to succeed."

Sometimes a player is who he is.

 

[BernieParent]

Last season he played with the best group of wings, Tippett (2.31), TK (2.28), Farabee (2.25).
Meanwhile Frost scored at a 1.77 rate.
You can't get in a much better "position to succeed."

Sometimes a player is who he is.

"Ladies and gentlemen, context has left the building!"

 

[deadhead]

This is exactly what I mean when I say you’re not reading what’s being said to you. I’m saying one opinion where you keep finding new ways to lump everyone who posts here together while explaining that you’re not doing that is a lazy road to go down. The opinion. Not you. Please stop putting those words in my mouth.

The people that put time into watching full games of players often put those opinions out there before the draft. Some players are discussed in more depth than others, but the point is that there is a chasm between opinions that say generic claptrap like “good passer” and those with specifics about the leveraging of specific attributes. People used to say the prospect version of Phil Myers was big. That’s utterly useless regurgitation anyone with a web broswer can find. Tell me specific ways in which we leverages that. Does he break up a lot of entries at the line with his reach maybe? The more we lump the former in with the latter, the more we dumb down the general discourse and everyone loses. We can all collectively do much better than that. Beat writers give us useless generics. They’re paid to cover the daily goings on of the team for their audiences.

As far as the professionals thing, I would think we could move beyond that by now. There is enough info out there to understand all major sports are not exactly meritocracies. There are tons of qualified people who make their living in hockey and tons who should be nowhere near an org. Once again, generalizing misses the point entirely. These are largely billion dollar lemonade stands and should be treated as such.

Anyone who reads business history knows there are a lot of incompetent CEOs out there running billion dollar corporations.

 

[GapToothedWonder]

Regardless, I don’t think it’s particularly outlandish to call this board perhaps the most negative of any fanbase in our small corner of the internet

Don't spend much time on the other teams boards do you.

 

[thedjpd]

This is exactly what I mean when I say you’re not reading what’s being said to you. I’m saying one opinion where you keep finding new ways to lump everyone who posts here together while explaining that you’re not doing that is a lazy road to go down. The opinion. Not you. Please stop putting those words in my mouth.

The people that put time into watching full games of players often put those opinions out there before the draft. Some players are discussed in more depth than others, but the point is that there is a chasm between opinions that say generic claptrap like “good passer” and those with specifics about the leveraging of specific attributes. People used to say the prospect version of Phil Myers was big. That’s utterly useless regurgitation anyone with a web broswer can find. Tell me specific ways in which we leverages that. Does he break up a lot of entries at the line with his reach maybe? The more we lump the former in with the latter, the more we dumb down the general discourse and everyone loses. We can all collectively do much better than that. Beat writers give us useless generics. They’re paid to cover the daily goings on of the team for their audiences.

As far as the professionals thing, I would think we could move beyond that by now. There is enough info out there to understand all major sports are not exactly meritocracies. There are tons of qualified people who make their living in hockey and tons who should be nowhere near an org. Once again, generalizing misses the point entirely. These are largely billion dollar lemonade stands and should be treated as such.

Agreed in generalities, but what or who makes you or anybody else here an appropriate judge of these lemonade stands? We are not in the know; we can choose not to trust based on failed expectations we determine, but with much less information. So we pool together data from where and what we can. I don’t see a flaw in that approach; in fact it’s the only one we can take.

A good chunk of the hockey world views Bettman as a failure. Yet he’s likely viewed as a huge success by those who employ him - but fans generally hate him. We don’t know; but can infer based on the fact that he’s been around forever.

It’s really easy to sit on the outside and make judgements. The rule of meritocracy has never actually existed; expecting that is a fool’s errand.

 

[thedjpd]

Don't spend much time on the other teams boards do you.

Enough, at least.

 

[JojoTheWhale]

Agreed in generalities, but what or who makes you or anybody else here an appropriate judge of these lemonade stands? We are not in the know; we can choose not to trust based on failed expectations we determine, but with much less information. So we pool together data from where and what we can. I don’t see a flaw in that approach; in fact it’s the only one we can take.

A good chunk of the hockey world views Bettman as a failure. Yet he’s likely viewed as a huge success by those who employ him - but fans generally hate him. We don’t know; but can infer based on the fact that he’s been around forever.

It’s really easy to sit on the outside and make judgements. The rule of meritocracy has never actually existed; expecting that is a fool’s errand.

Discussing the process from the bits of info we do get feels like a legitimate course of action to me. I don't like their reasoning for why they do and don't make certain moves. I believe that's far more linked with future success than whether any one player turns into a first line quality guy or not.

I think you can call Bettman both a wild success and a failure at the same time. His two chief jobs are to keep the owners happy and to grow the game. He's seemingly brilliant at the former and inept at the latter. I know some people will argue about the failure to grow the game, but as recently as 12 years ago, the NHL had a slightly higher cap number than the NBA. Now it's careening toward the NBA doubling them up. There are projections where the NBA breaches 350MM per team in a decade. They're on completely different scales. Whichever of the two jobs you choose to put more emphasis on gives you a reasonable answer.

 

[GapToothedWonder]

Why be on a message board at all of you attitude can be boiled down too "we aren't professionals and they are so there is no point to having opinions"

 

[deadhead]

I don't really get that excited by not following the consensus, b/c the consensus tends to center on safe picks, that is, players coming off big years.

Problem is you're drafting a player for what they're going to be at 21 or so.

A few emerge early, and a tendency is to assume their progress will be linear but we often see these top young players flatline, b/c their early success is simply "accelerated", that is, they physically mature early but that leaves less room for later improvement. If you're already fast, skilled, with great body control, you may simply have reached your physical limits.

A few are "late bloomers", especially those who have physical jumps at 17-18, and their body control and hand to eye coordination lag for a year or two, but when it comes together they explode on the scene.

But take any list a year before the draft, and compare it to the year of the draft, and you can see how volatile development is between 16-18.

The problem with gambling on projection is it adds an element of risk, but it's also the opportunity to bet on upside - if Luchanko is a late birthday who was just coming into his own last season as his body filled out (seems to have added 15 lbs from 16 to 17) he could potentially be better than Catton, who went #8. On the other hand, if his flaws (shooting, etc.) are innate, maybe he ends up as a better version of Poehling.

My bet is he's going to be a better, more physical version of Frost, but who knows.

 

[blackjackmulligan]

I don't really get that excited by not following the consensus, b/c the consensus tends to center on safe picks, that is, players coming off big years.

Problem is you're drafting a player for what they're going to be at 21 or so.

A few emerge early, and a tendency is to assume their progress will be linear but we often see these top young players flatline, b/c their early success is simply "accelerated", that is, they physically mature early but that leaves less room for later improvement. If you're already fast, skilled, with great body control, you may simply have reached your physical limits.

A few are "late bloomers", especially those who have physical jumps at 17-18, and their body control and hand to eye coordination lag for a year or two, but when it comes together they explode on the scene.

But take any list a year before the draft, and compare it to the year of the draft, and you can see how volatile development is between 16-18.

The problem with gambling on projection is it adds an element of risk, but it's also the opportunity to bet on upside - if Luchanko is a late birthday who was just coming into his own last season as his body filled out (seems to have added 15 lbs from 16 to 17) he could potentially be better than Catton, who went #8. On the other hand, if his flaws (shooting, etc.) are innate, maybe he ends up as a better version of Poehling.

My bet is he's going to be a better, more physical version of Frost, but who knows.

That would suck.

 

[deadhead]

Here's Wheeler's 2024 top 32 as of August, 2023:
1. Celebrini [1]
2. Eiserman [20]
3. Levshenov [2]
4. Demidov [5]
5. Kiviharju [122]
6. Helenius [14]
7. Catton [8]
8. Mews [74]
9. Dickinson [11]
10. Masse [66]
11. Chernyshov [33]
12. Ritchie [45]
13. Hutson [43]
14. Brandsegg-Nygard [15]
15. Howe [46]
16. Parekh [9]
17. Buium [12]
18. Jiricek [16]
19. Yakemchuk [7]
20. Hage [21]
21. Sennecke [3]
22. Elick [36]
23. Vaisanen [96]
24. Boisvert [18]
25. Zether [129]
26. Christoforo [ND]
27. Ustinkov [ND}
28. Freij [37]
29. Skahan [65]
30. Felicio [ND]
31. Hemming [29]
32. Zetterberg

Lindstrom [4]
Iginla [6]
Silayev [10]
Luchanko [13]
Parascak [17]
Connelly [19]
Sorin [22]
Solberg [23]
Beaudoin [24]
Letourneau [25]
Greentree [26]
Vanackar [27]
Gridin [28]
Emery [30]
Danford [31]
O'Reilly [32]