2023-24 #2: Phantoms (AHL), Reading Royals (ECHL), NCAA, Jrs., Int'l, etc.

[wankstifier]

Is Barkey scoring mostly on the PP?

 

[Magua]

Is Barkey scoring mostly on the PP?

Bonk has 5 more PP points in 4 less games than Barkey (and triple the PP goals). Just to show what a farce that is.

Barkey is a very impactful 5 on 5 player in every game I’ve watched going back to playoffs. He leads the OHL with 6 shorties too, which is more than his 4 PP goals. But I’m sure Frost can explain to him why he won’t be a future PKer.

 

[mr4tno]

Will watch certain guys tonight:

Desnoyers is having an off year, but he really wasn't an offensive player to start with, though part of that falloff is he's not on the PP this season. I think he was always a bottom six guy but would like to see more, that is, is he a 3rd line guy or strictly 4th line forechecker?

Avon - reminds me of Poehling, decent but not great skill set, but really fast (fastest player in OHL two years running), smart, plays 200 foot game, 20 years old so needs time. Was listed at 6'0 174 at EP, so also needs to fill out.

Attard - just put back on PP, most of his scoring at ES where he's second on the team, the key is his defense, his NHL role will be a defensive first big RHD who sneaks up the weak side on offense for one timers. So less concerned with his scoring than whether he's playing "the right way." Like the "new and improved" Risto.

Andrae - needs to start taking over games, should be dominating AHL the way Brink has since he returned, though to be fair, only had 92 SHL before he came over, and only 44 AHL games so far. So maybe being a little too demanding of him right now.

Toumaala - off the puck is the key, he can skate and shoot, he's never going to be a top playmaker, but his key to success is making things happen with his legs without the puck on the forecheck, and getting back on defense. But grade on a curve, this is his first high level competition at 20.

Brink - it's all about off the puck play for him, he's too good for the AHL, he's really there just to work on defensive fundamentals and playing a more complete game. The open spot next year will be on the 3rd line with Tippett, TK, Farabee, Foerster ahead of him at wing.

Ginning - he has improved his skating and passing, but still not good enough, but if they trade Seeler, there is an opening for a big, physical LHD at #6/#7 if he shows he can handle that role.

Watched the game last night (what a waste of time). Coaching is abysmal. I do not know what kind of pictures IL has but they must be doosies. Andrae flat out sucks. Can't skate a lick and his Hockey IQ is lower than whale crap. When he is on the ice the other team is guaranteed at least 1 2-on-1. Another wasted second round pick.

 

[deadhead]

On the other hand, Ginning and Attard looked very good.
Brink didn't play as well as his first couple games.

 

[wankstifier]

Bonk has 5 more PP points in 4 less games than Barkey (and triple the PP goals). Just to show what a farce that is.

Barkey is a very impactful 5 on 5 player in every game I’ve watched going back to playoffs. He leads the OHL with 6 shorties too, which is more than his 4 PP goals. But I’m sure Frost can explain to him why he won’t be a future PKer.

Thanks! I just discovered that I could've found this easily on CHL site.

Also, is Barkey playing C? Notice he's getting a lot of faceoffs, but he's listed as a RW.

 

[FLYguy3911]

Here is Bonk's scoring breakdown.

	G	A1	A2	Total	INV%
ES	4	6	10	20	17.3%
PP	11	6	9	26	50.4%
SH	0	2	2	4	23.2%
Total	15	14	21	50	29.2%

*ES includes 6v5 and 5v6 situations such as over the weekend when he scored a 6v5 goal in the final minute.

I've been studying statistical profiles for a bit now. A few red flags:

• More PP points than ES points. Generally an indicator of scoring not translating well to the next level.
• More goals than primary assists as a defenseman.
• Sub 10% ES primary involvement.
• High percentage of secondary assists.
• ~3x as many PP goals as ES goals
• 15% shooting percentage for a player that went ~11 months between ES goals.

While a near 30% overall involvement is certainly solid for a D+1 defensemen playing for a powerhouse program, it is highly inflated by his PP production. In the games that he plays, he has a point on over half of the PP goals London scores. Not just on the ice, in totality. For a non-QB that is ridiculously high and likely not sustainable or projectable considering his role. These numbers are also after a recent hot stretch from both team and player.

As for his ES scoring profile, he doesn't share the most promising company. Here are the notable CHL players who scored at a similar ES rate in their D+1:

Connor Murphy
Jonathon Blum
Kyle Capobianco
Travis Dermott
Travis Hamonic
Kale Clague
Philippe Myers
Jamie Oleksiak
Mirco Muller
Brandon Gormley
Scott Harrington
Dillon Heatherington

You'll notice a theme with these players. Mind you, these are just the guys that established themselves as NHLers to some degree. It's more than an 80% bust rate from this bucket of players. If you open the parameters a bit, Rasmus Andersson pops up just north of Bonk, but should you expect the lone exception?

 

[BillDineen]

Here is Bonk's scoring breakdown.

	G	A1	A2	Total	INV%
ES	4	6	10	20	17.3%
PP	11	6	9	26	50.4%
SH	0	2	2	4	23.2%
Total	15	14	21	50	29.2%

*ES includes 6v5 and 5v6 situations such as over the weekend when he scored a 6v5 goal in the final minute.

I've been studying statistical profiles for a bit now. A few red flags:

• More PP points than ES points. Generally an indicator of scoring translating to the next level.
• More goals than primary assists as a defenseman.
• Sub 10% ES primary involvement.
• High percentage of secondary assists.
• ~3x as many PP goals as ES goals
• 15% shooting percentage for a player that went ~11 months between ES goals.

While a near 30% overall involvement is certainly solid for a D+1 defensemen playing for a powerhouse program, it is highly inflated by his PP production. In the games that he plays, he has a point on over half of the PP goals London scores. Not just on the ice, in totality. For a non-QB that is ridiculously high and likely not sustainable or projectable considering his role. These numbers are also after a recent hot stretch from both team and player.

As for his ES scoring profile, he doesn't share the most promising company. Here are the notable CHL players who scored at a similar ES rate in their D+1:

Connor Murphy
Jonathon Blum
Kyle Capobianco
Travis Dermott
Travis Hamonic
Kale Clague
Philippe Myers
Jamie Oleksiak
Mirco Muller
Brandon Gormley
Scott Harrington
Dillon Heatherington

You'll notice a theme with these players. Mind you, these are just the guys that established themselves as NHLers to some degree. It's more than an 80% bust rate from this bucket of players. If you open the parameters a bit, Rasmus Andersson pops up just north of Bonk, but should you expect the lone exception?

His shooting % is due to where he shoots from on the PP

 

[deadhead]

I don't think his PP scoring is translatable, but he's almost doubled his ES scoring rate in his D+1 season. He was drafted based on his projectable body, IQ, mobility and defense, not his offense. So the offensive jump is a good sign that he's developing an all around game.

His future is probably a Niskanen type role, a reliable partner who can contribute on offense but doesn't drive the defensive pair. Niskanen was a late developer, didn't really establish him self as a top 4 D-man until he was 27, don't think Bonk will take that long.

However, let's see how he finishes the season, he's on a ridiculous tear right now, last ten games 10-11 21 +14, if he sustains that pace, well, that's a heck of an upward developmental trajectory.

 

[FLYguy3911]

His shooting % is due to where he shoots from on the PP

Yup. Absolutely.

He did not have a single goal until 11/9. They switched his role on the PP and he went for 16 goals in 23 games since. I would not expect a forward to hold that pace.

 

[mr4tno]

On the other hand, Ginning and Attard looked very good.
Brink didn't play as well as his first couple games.

Actually I forgot about Ginning's play I was so pissed off at andrae's but you are correct

 

[deadhead]

Actually I forgot about Ginning's play I was so pissed off at andrae's but you are correct

After I looked at Andrae's experience, something like 90 SHL and 40 AHL games and he doesn't turn 22 for three more weeks, I felt more charitable. Though I think he needs to stay in the AHL this season, he doesn't look NHL ready right now.

 

[wasup]

On the other hand, Ginning and Attard looked very good.
Brink didn't play as well as his first couple games.

You have any idea how many times we had D men up pinching in the O zone only to give up 2 on 1s all night . We must have given up 6-7 odd man breaks last night while maybe having 1 ourselves , you can't do that and expect to win games . They are really missing Bel pickle down there as he seems to be a steadying player on that back end . He has only played 1 game since being sent down a month ago . Andrae was not caught up last night but his game in the last month or so has not been great , lack of foot speed , agility seem to be an issue right now

Yes , one of Ginning better games for sure .

As far as the coaching goes , Laczynski is out so guess who is centering the 1st line and 1st line pp unit last night , [ Gardner ] . You know the guy who have zero offense to his game . Our pp went 0 for 5 with 2 shots on goal .

Desnoyers is struggling for sure . He centers the second line and second line pp but is really struggling with puck possession . They seem to be able to take the puck off him quite easily and I did not notice that last year . He seems good at seeing something and jumping on it but is not able to hang onto the puck long enough to then create something .

 

[JojoTheWhale]

More PP points than ES points. Generally an indicator of scoring not translating well to the next level.

• More goals than primary assists as a defenseman.
• High percentage of secondary assists.

It is the best feeling when someone puts in the time and work you lazily avoided and confirms your priors for you.

 

[Psuhockey]

Here is Bonk's scoring breakdown.

	G	A1	A2	Total	INV%
ES	4	6	10	20	17.3%
PP	11	6	9	26	50.4%
SH	0	2	2	4	23.2%
Total	15	14	21	50	29.2%

*ES includes 6v5 and 5v6 situations such as over the weekend when he scored a 6v5 goal in the final minute.

I've been studying statistical profiles for a bit now. A few red flags:

• More PP points than ES points. Generally an indicator of scoring not translating well to the next level.
• More goals than primary assists as a defenseman.
• Sub 10% ES primary involvement.
• High percentage of secondary assists.
• ~3x as many PP goals as ES goals
• 15% shooting percentage for a player that went ~11 months between ES goals.

While a near 30% overall involvement is certainly solid for a D+1 defensemen playing for a powerhouse program, it is highly inflated by his PP production. In the games that he plays, he has a point on over half of the PP goals London scores. Not just on the ice, in totality. For a non-QB that is ridiculously high and likely not sustainable or projectable considering his role. These numbers are also after a recent hot stretch from both team and player.

As for his ES scoring profile, he doesn't share the most promising company. Here are the notable CHL players who scored at a similar ES rate in their D+1:

Connor Murphy
Jonathon Blum
Kyle Capobianco
Travis Dermott
Travis Hamonic
Kale Clague
Philippe Myers
Jamie Oleksiak
Mirco Muller
Brandon Gormley
Scott Harrington
Dillon Heatherington

You'll notice a theme with these players. Mind you, these are just the guys that established themselves as NHLers to some degree. It's more than an 80% bust rate from this bucket of players. If you open the parameters a bit, Rasmus Andersson pops up just north of Bonk, but should you expect the lone exception?

This is the perfect time to trade him in a package for something really good with Drysdale now on the team and the upcoming draft loaded with potential top 4 defensemen.

 

[FLYguy3911]

This is the perfect time to trade him in a package for something really good with Drysdale now on the team and the upcoming draft loaded with potential top 4 defensemen.

Won't happen. They were the high team on him and based on Keith Jones' comments, they believe in his offensive outbreak. Plus he's best buds with Dale Hunter.

 

[deadhead]

They have mobile, offense first D-men in Drysdale, Sanheim and York. Andrae is similar, and even Attard is primarily a shooting D-man. Zamula's primary value is 3LHD, PP2, not defense.

Someone has to actually play defense, if you trade Seeler, you're left with Bonk, Ginning and MacDonald.

 

[blackjackmulligan]

Will watch certain guys tonight:

Desnoyers is having an off year, but he really wasn't an offensive player to start with, though part of that falloff is he's not on the PP this season. I think he was always a bottom six guy but would like to see more, that is, is he a 3rd line guy or strictly 4th line forechecker?

Avon - reminds me of Poehling, decent but not great skill set, but really fast (fastest player in OHL two years running), smart, plays 200 foot game, 20 years old so needs time. Was listed at 6'0 174 at EP, so also needs to fill out.

Attard - just put back on PP, most of his scoring at ES where he's second on the team, the key is his defense, his NHL role will be a defensive first big RHD who sneaks up the weak side on offense for one timers. So less concerned with his scoring than whether he's playing "the right way." Like the "new and improved" Risto.

Andrae - needs to start taking over games, should be dominating AHL the way Brink has since he returned, though to be fair, only had 92 SHL before he came over, and only 44 AHL games so far. So maybe being a little too demanding of him right now.

Toumaala - off the puck is the key, he can skate and shoot, he's never going to be a top playmaker, but his key to success is making things happen with his legs without the puck on the forecheck, and getting back on defense. But grade on a curve, this is his first high level competition at 20.

Brink - it's all about off the puck play for him, he's too good for the AHL, he's really there just to work on defensive fundamentals and playing a more complete game. The open spot next year will be on the 3rd line with Tippett, TK, Farabee, Foerster ahead of him at wing.

Ginning - he has improved his skating and passing, but still not good enough, but if they trade Seeler, there is an opening for a big, physical LHD at #6/#7 if he shows he can handle that role.

You certainly have what seems like a high opinion of players who very likely will not sniff the NHL as regulars.

Attard will never make the NHL if that is the expectation. Why not cater to his strong points and coach that part of his game up instead of trying to make him into something he is not nor will ever be. Deynoyers will also never amount to an NHL player. Samu and Andrea we shall see though for Samu it looks a lot better now than 8 months ago. Brink is not too good for the AHL. Though he should be called very very soon. Not even sure he should have been sent down.

 

[VladDrag]

They have mobile, offense first D-men in Drysdale, Sanheim and York. Andrae is similar, and even Attard is primarily a shooting D-man. Zamula's primary value is 3LHD, PP2, not defense.

Someone has to actually play defense, if you trade Seeler, you're left with Bonk, Ginning and MacDonald.

Cam York - Offensive first D-man:

 

[deadhead]

York has less than two full seasons under his belt and just turned 23. He wasn't drafted for his defense.
Torts has pushed him to be more aggressive, but I think right now he's being too careful not to make mistakes, as he gains confidence I think he'll produce more on offense.

Notice the gap between GAR and xGAR on offense (and on defense as well, puck luck or just still learning how to finish plays).

 

[FLYguy3911]

Cam York - Offensive first D-man:

View attachment 813871

He's 5'11 180 bro.

Anyone who watched him at Michigan could tell you this outcome was possible, which makes the org putting all of their eggs into the York/Andrae basket come draft time look foolish. I expected a bit more offensively but conservative players at the college level are going to have a tough time scaling up to the NHL level. I was always much more impressed with his defensive positioning (he blocked tons of shots) and stickwork than anything else.

 

[VladDrag]

York has less than two full seasons under his belt and just turned 23. He wasn't drafted for his defense.
Torts has pushed him to be more aggressive, but I think right now he's being too careful not to make mistakes, as he gains confidence I think he'll produce more on offense.

Notice the gap between GAR and xGAR on offense (and on defense as well, puck luck or just still learning how to finish plays).

You're right. He's actually been fine offensively, particularly at ES. What kills his offense is the very dark red PP numbers as well. Same thing happened to Frost last year - had great ES numbers but awful PP numbers, and that tanked his overall ranking.

The point I was really making was in response to , "Someone has to actually play defense," York is playing defense quite well, and he's not an offensive-first defenseman.

He's 5'11 180 bro.

Anyone who watched him at Michigan could tell you this outcome was possible, which makes the org putting all of their eggs into the York/Andrae basket come draft time look foolish. I expected a bit more offensively but conservative players at the college level are going to have a tough time scaling up to the NHL level. I was always much more impressed with his defensive positioning (he blocked tons of shots) and stickwork than anything else.

I bet he'll be fine offensively as he grows. As DH said, there does appear to be some 'luck' going against him. However, some players consistently underperform their expected, and some players consistently overperform. At some point that in itself is indicative of ability imo.

 

[deadhead]

He's 5'11 180 bro.

Anyone who watched him at Michigan could tell you this outcome was possible, which makes the org putting all of their eggs into the York/Andrae basket come draft time look foolish. I expected a bit more offensively but conservative players at the college level are going to have a tough time scaling up to the NHL level. I was always much more impressed with his defensive positioning (he blocked tons of shots) and stickwork than anything else.

Huh, what? They had Sanheim and Zamula, they targeted Drysdale, they drafted Bonk and Sotheran, picked up Grans and are patiently developing Ginning and Attard.

They will probably draft at least one, probably 2 D-men in the first three rounds of this draft and another next draft.

Now none of them are Makar, but who is? There are very few elite offensive D-men who are full sized and also above average defensively. Most are one dimensional, defensive liabilities.

 

[deadhead]

The point I was really making was in response to , "Someone has to actually play defense," York is playing defense quite well, and he's not an offensive-first defenseman.

You need a couple big bois on defense, it's nice to drive play and keep the puck in the O-zone, but even the best puck control offenses spend 45% of their time on defense - and a big part of defense in your zone is keeping the puck out of danger areas, winning board battles to stop the cycle, and standing up PFs driving the net.

I think York is very efficient, and will get better with experience, but he has physical limitations, lack of size, lack of straight line speed. I think he can be a good D-man within those constraints.

 

[blackjackmulligan]

Huh, what? They had Sanheim and Zamula, they targeted Drysdale, they drafted Bonk and Sotheran, picked up Grans and are patiently developing Ginning and Attard.

They will probably draft at least one, probably 2 D-men in the first three rounds of this draft and another next draft.

Now none of them are Makar, but who is? There are very few elite offensive D-men who are full sized and also above average defensively. Most are one dimensional, defensive liabilities.

They are 24 and soon to be 25. How much more patient should they be? Neither will be an NHL regular unfortunately. Even Zamula the jury is still out on.

 

[captainpaxil]

There's fewer legitimate power forward in the league more guys just willing to score the gritty goals so while the rangey defenseman is appreciated it's just not as forgiving to the stay at home type anymore.
Ristolainen might be as close as we get to the big snarly type and I worry more about the lack of abrasive temperament than I do a lack of size