Rumor: 2023-2024 Trade Rumors and Free Agency: Offseason Edition

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John Mandalorian

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I think a lot of teams would like a Sam Girard but their fan base on HFBoards will say they don’t want him.

The main board is a weird echo chamber in perpetuating myth/faulty truisms. For example, a Montreal fan was talking up the idea that D need to be more physical than mobile. The Avs were very effective last year with their mobility. Not only did Chiarot not help Florida, but the Lightning immediately dumped McDonagh after the Avs made him look like a statue.

The 2023 Avs in general seemed less physical and even frail/fragile. Even Nichushkin had some drop off in how he was able to hound the puck. Once you got past MacKinnon, Rantanen, Nichushkin, and Lehkonen, they didn't have enough skill to rely only on skill and they also brought little else.

Barbashev would've been a good add for the Avs.

The Avs needed more guys to create forced errors but while also having some discipline.
 

Pierce Hawthorne

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This is more for my curiosity, what team could use Girard?

Teams that would need/want more puck moving ability from the back end. But also keeping an eye on what teams are willing to use undersized Dmen.

It definitely wouldn't be a huge list by any means which also will impact Girards value I would say.


Off the top of my head, Buffalo looks like arguably the best fit IMO. I could see Chicago having interest because they just need good Dmen in general right now but with Bedard coming in they might be looking for some Dmen that can move the puck up to the forwards well.

Beyond that, maybe Montreal, Columbus, Nashville?


Not a lot of fits.
 

Gruyeriev

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The main board is a weird echo chamber in perpetuating myth/faulty truisms. For example, a Montreal fan was talking up the idea that D need to be more physical than mobile. The Avs were very effective last year with their mobility. Not only did Chiarot not help Florida, but the Lightning immediately dumped McDonagh after the Avs made him look like a statue.

The 2023 Avs in general seemed less physical and even frail/fragile. Even Nichushkin had some drop off in how he was able to hound the puck. Once you got past MacKinnon, Rantanen, Nichushkin, and Lehkonen, they didn't have enough skill to rely only on skill and they also brought little else.

Barbashev would've been a good add for the Avs.

The Avs needed more guys to create forced errors but while also having some discipline.
Barbashev might have been a good get. In retrospect even Domi could have been had for cheap and been an improvement.
 
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John Mandalorian

2022 Avs: The First Dance
Nov 29, 2018
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Teams that would need/want more puck moving ability from the back end. But also keeping an eye on what teams are willing to use undersized Dmen.

It definitely wouldn't be a huge list by any means which also will impact Girards value I would say.


Off the top of my head, Buffalo looks like arguably the best fit IMO. I could see Chicago having interest because they just need good Dmen in general right now but with Bedard coming in they might be looking for some Dmen that can move the puck up to the forwards well.

Beyond that, maybe Montreal, Columbus, Nashville?


Not a lot of fits.

Washington fans were interested in Girard. But one thing worth considering is cost control. A team that's not a desired destination might value the term on his contract.

He's been part of a winning culture in Colorado too. This wouldn't be the main reason but potentially its part of the rationalization.
 

NOTENOUGHRYJOTHINGS

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That's a product of the lack of forward depth quite frankly... although I don't really agree that our D was that much worse this year. At least not significantly. Makar was still arguably the best D in the league when he played, Toews and Byram were a little worse particularly on Defense, but the rest were pretty much the same and Girard was actually better this year than last year.


But last year we had 2 quality forward lines all season long even with injuries, in the playoffs we had 3 or 4 good forward lines. This year, we pretty much had 1 good line all season. That depth has an impact on the Defense and just how much they could impact the game.


It's kind of yet another example of why forwards are more important than Dmen. Forwards have a much bigger opportunity to impact the game.
Nuke: $3 million
Kadri: $4.5 million
MacK: $7 million
Lekhonen: $2.3 million
Landeskog: $7 million
Rantanen: $9.3 million

That's like $33 million cap hit with no one on an ELC.

In terms of percentage of cap that's got to be one of the best top 6 in the cap era.

And for all the flak JTC gets you can do a lot worse for his cap hit.

Then LOC Cogliano and Helm at Wal mart level contracts.

Arguably the worst cap hit to value forward on the team was Jost who got thrown into the dumpster midway through the season.

Forward depth was just as important if not more so than defensive depth.

The Avs regularly had both Manson and JJ getting decent amounts of minutes as the #4 and #5. That's not bad for the circumstances but for a cup winner it's hardly amazing.
 

John Mandalorian

2022 Avs: The First Dance
Nov 29, 2018
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Barbashev might have been a good get. In retrospect even Domi could have been had for cheap and been an improvement.

Domi really didn't cost that much at the TDL. If the Avs wanted him, they could have likely had him. Of course, the underwhelming performance by the bottom 9 in the playoffs might have made them pivot.
 
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Foppa2118

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I don't think Bo has established himself as a top pair D yet. Wildly inconsistent and has had repeated defensive lapses throughout the season. In Game 5 against Seattle when Makar was out and you'd want him to step up, he had the worst metrics on the team 32% xGF in 24 minutes of 5v5 ice time. Toews far outplayed Bo in the Seattle series.

And this is before you consider the injury history and the risk there.

Bo has the potential to be a top pair guy, but he's not there yet and I think his game was in better shape during the Cup run than the previous season. Didn't take a step forward (injuries didn't help of course), probably went a little backwards.

I have lots of thoughts on this, so apologies for the long post.

When Bo first played on the top pair this year with Makar, I think he made it pretty obvious he not only was capable of playing in that role, he excelled at it. There was a noticeable improvement on the team IMO when they first swapped Toews with Bo. He made Makar better as well.

I think Bo made some uncharacteristic mistakes at times this year, but his defensive lapses were overstated compared to others on the team. It was a reaction to him being highly praised beforehand. There's a natural tendency for some to tear down the king or the heir apparent, by holding them to a higher standard than others.

In reality the entire D core struggled a lot this year. They all tried to do too much with a depleted roster.

On a per game basis, I would bet Toews and even Makar had more mistakes than Bo. Cale had lots of them this year. More than any other season. Toews was quite bad in a lot of games this year. Manson struggled in the games he played trying to play through a high ankle sprain. MacDermid struggled more than last season.

JJ and EJ were about the same IMO, but EJ was forced into a bigger role with the injuries on the right side to Manson and Makar. Also when both were in the lineup, he was forced to play on his off left side for really the first time in his career, which has never been a strong suit of his, because Bednar/Pratt wanted to run a true top 4 and play Girard/Toews on their off right side, and they moved EJ to the left instead of Manson. I think this is why JJ was slotted to play ahead of EJ to start the playoffs.

Sammy who often times has struggled with mistakes in the past I think was quite good in the second half of the season. I think he has a lot of pride, and increased his intensity in his D zone battles to overcome his limitations. He wasn't perfect, but it was great to see him improve.

Bo for the bulk of his season was quite good, but was kind of up and down to end the regular season and a few times in the playoffs. So I think there's some recency bias there in evaluations of him. But this is also when they were pushing the hardest to win the division and advance in the playoffs with a depleted roster that kept getting worse.

Toews I agree was better than Bo against Seattle, but I think this was because Devon had been struggling defensively most of the year, so he really simplified his game and didn't try to do much of anything offensively. IMO the right balance for the situation they were in with a depleted roster, was somewhere between how Bo and Devon approached the role.

Bo on a strictly talent and IQ/awareness basis, I still maintain is the best defenseman defensively on the team. His defensive reads are a clear notch above the other D men. He makes more subtle old school "smart" defensive plays than other D men on the team. He separates guys from the puck and boxes them out in the corners better than other D men on the team. His desperation plays in bad situations are often better than the others. He's got a good active stick. These are the true defensive plays that you should judge defenseman on that don't show up in stat sheets.

What Bo struggled with the most though at the end of the year was turnovers in the D zone. It also impacted some of his coverage, because I think the root of the problem was he was thinking too far ahead offensively with the team desperately needing offense. These are classic young defenseman problems though. Not an indicator of how truly good he is defensively.

He was trying to help the team offensively with so much offense missing, but I think he let his focus get ahead of the play, instead of focusing on reading the play in front of him first, and letting that guide him. Usually this is a strength of his though, so that's why I don't see it as a long term problem. Just a young defenseman's problem at the highest level of hockey with little margin for error.

He just needs to iron out the consistency, that's the main issue with him right now, but that's the same for every 21 year old D man like him. He's only played 91 regular season games, but for some reason people hold him to the same standard as 300+ and 400+ game defenseman like Devon Toews or Sam Girard. Compared to other 91 game NHL defenseman though, he's playing outstanding.

He's still learning what works and what doesn't for him at the NHL level. He'll figure it out pretty soon I think. He's a quick learner and he's just too good not to.
 

Pierce Hawthorne

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Nuke: $3 million
Kadri: $4.5 million
MacK: $7 million
Lekhonen: $2.3 million
Landeskog: $7 million
Rantanen: $9.3 million

That's like $33 million cap hit with no one on an ELC.

In terms of percentage of cap that's got to be one of the best top 6 in the cap era.

And for all the flak JTC gets you can do a lot worse for his cap hit.

Then LOC Cogliano and Helm at Wal mart level contracts.

Arguably the worst cap hit to value forward on the team was Jost who got thrown into the dumpster midway through the season.

Forward depth was just as important if not more so than defensive depth.

The Avs regularly had both Manson and JJ getting decent amounts of minutes as the #4 and #5. That's not bad for the circumstances but for a cup winner it's hardly amazing.

Yep... IMO our forward depth last year was far more impressive then our Defensive depth. Manson, EJ, JJ as 4-6 Dmen really isn't anything to write home about. But Makar and Toews are super studs and Byram was fantastic in the playoffs, so it didn't matter what the depth looked like.


This year's Avs showed it doesn't work like that with the forwards. If you don't have 4 lines that bring good qualities to the table, you're not going anywhere.
 

Balthazar

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Best fit for Girard is Ottawa if they believe that he can play on the right side.
 

Foppa2118

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Best fit for Girard is Ottawa if they believe that he can play on the right side.

Not a great fit for the Avs though with centers. Stuzle and Norris probably wouldn't be moved anyway, but even if they moved Norris he's too expensive, and has too much term to retain.

If they move G it's gonna have to be for a center because it doesn't look like the UFA market will help them with a 2C this year.
 

Balthazar

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Not a great fit for the Avs though with centers. Stuzle and Norris probably wouldn't be moved anyway, but even if they moved Norris he's too expensive, and has too much term to retain.
Shane Pinto :nod:
 

Foppa2118

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Shane Pinto :nod:

Maybe, but I'd see if they can get a better return by packaging Newhook and their 1st with G, before going that route. Feels like G has more value than Pinto.

He's still young but 35 points in today's NHL isn't much. Would be 25 or so points a few years ago. He'd have to improve a fair amount to be an upgrade on JTC.

He's not that young either. He turns 23 in November, so he's closer to the end of his development than the beginning. Think I'd prefer a more sure thing in return for Girard if possible.
 

Balthazar

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For Pinto or Norris?
They aren't moving Norris for G for sure.

It would have to be Pinto, but they refused to move him for Chychrun so who knows.
Maybe, but I'd see if they can get a better return by packaging Newhook and their 1st with G, before going that route. Feels like G has more value than Pinto.

He's still young but 35 points in today's NHL isn't much. Would be 25 or so points a few year ago. He'd have to improve a fair amount to be an upgrade on JTC.

He's not that young either. He turns 23 in November, so he's closer to the end of his development than the beginning. Think I'd prefer a more sure thing in return for Girard if possible.
He's very young with legit 2C upside.
 

Gruyeriev

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I’m torn. I like the idea of a younger 2C who is cost controlled and it’s a bit of a gamble if they live up to their potential. On the other hand if we are in a win now mode for 2 years or so, someone more proven seems safer but harder to manage the cap.
 

NOTENOUGHRYJOTHINGS

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Yep... IMO our forward depth last year was far more impressive then our Defensive depth. Manson, EJ, JJ as 4-6 Dmen really isn't anything to write home about. But Makar and Toews are super studs and Byram was fantastic in the playoffs, so it didn't matter what the depth looked like.


This year's Avs showed it doesn't work like that with the forwards. If you don't have 4 lines that bring good qualities to the table, you're not going anywhere.
I didn't even remember Bura who was something like the 9th most important F on the team but was basically brought in by Seattle to be a top liner.
 

Foppa2118

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He's very young with legit 2C upside.

He has 2C upside but 23 isn't that young for a forward. He's a few months older than Newhook. If that's the best they can get, so be it though.

Maybe he takes a big step next season, but it would be a risk that he can be an upgrade on JTC, that I'm not sure they can afford to take. They kind of have to hit with a Girard/2C trade.
 

Avsfan1921

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But last year we had 2 quality forward lines all season long even with injuries, in the playoffs we had 3 or 4 good forward lines. This year, we pretty much had 1 good line all season. That depth has an impact on the Defense and just how much they could impact the game.


It's kind of yet another example of why forwards are more important than Dmen. Forwards have a much bigger opportunity to impact the game.
I really don’t think this is an example of mostly lack of forward depth as you are suggesting. The brain farts on the d as a whole was on another level. I get that they had less outlet options, and forward support was less than last year defensively but their transition in skating wasn’t there and their offensive zone decisions were highly questionable in many games. That’s not due to lack of forward depth, they just weren’t at the level they were last year. Everyone outside of Girard was worse imo. Some due to injury, overworking the horses and whatnot, but they were worse in every area of the ice overall. Not just because of forward support imo.
 
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Gruyeriev

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I didn't even remember Bura who was something like the 9th most important F on the team but was basically brought in by Seattle to be a top liner.
He did play on their top line for most of the regular season until he got injured. I think Eeli Tolvanen picked up some of the slack in their top 6, because they really do have depth. Just like Vegas really.

In the expansion draft the Kraken really left a lot of good players on the table and people thought they were crazy but Ron Francis had a plan and they have built/stole quite a good team even though they may not have a super star player.
 
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