Rumor: 2023-2024 Trade Rumors and Free Agency: Offseason Edition

[Balthazar]

I just can't see Vancouver retaining anything on Miller for the next 8 years.

FTR his contract is 7 years.

But yea:

Kadri last year: age 32, 7M X 7, cost: 0 asset
or
Miller w/ retention: age 30, 7M X 7, cost: two 1st rd picks + Newhook


I mean...you do get nearly 2 more years of "prime" with Miller and his contract will end at age 37 instead of 39. So it may be not as bad as I originally thought.

 

[Foppa2118]

Some context is needed here. McTavish is earlier in his development than Byram.

Byram was drafted in 2019 and McTavish was drafted in 2021. So, last year was McTavish’s 1st year in the NHL, and this was Byram’s 3rd.

Byram also played 7 more minutes per game than McTavish this year. That’s significant. Naturally he’s going to get more opportunity within that.

You’re talking about Byram needing more opportunity, but he had a lot more than McTavish. He barely played with Zegras. I think you look at a 43 point season playing basically 3rd line minutes, that’s pretty damn good.

I think there’s room for growth in both players games, but probably more with McTavish, especially on a second line with Rantanen.

This is missing some important context as well though Northern.

Bo's only 1.5 years older than McTavsh, and he's only played 2 more regular season NHL games than him. Yes two. So I don't see a big difference in their development time. Going off seasons is pretty misleading, since Bo has barely played in those seasons.

If you want to go off last season's production, Bo paced for a very similar 14 goals and 46 points to his 20 goal 47 point pace this year, while playing an even lesser role mostly on the third pair, with even less PP time, compared to McTavish's 17 goal 44 point pace this year.

As for role, whatever role McTavish had, it wasn't that much smaller than Bo's on defense playing on the second pair this year, getting about a 20 second PP2 shift at the end of the power play.

Meanwhile, McTavish played on PP1 and averaged 1:19 more than Bo this year. 33% of McTavish's points came on the PP, while only 25% of Bo's did. Season before only 6% of Bo's points came on the PP with 1 point.

All of that means there's a good chance Bo will produce at an even higher pace, if given a bigger role on the team as expected.

Bo is also a defenseman not a forward, so the overall TOI comparison is apples to oranges. Defenseman play more anyway, and forwards spend most of their shift trying to score, while defenseman spend most of their shift defending.

This is also why it's meaningful when a defenseman outscores or outpaces a forward in both goals and points.

That may not stay the same if McTavish gets better, but 21 year old 20+ goal 50+ point, two way, top pairing capable defenseman like Bo clearly is don't grow on trees, and they should NEVER be traded to fill a 2C role. Nor do they need to, in order to acquire one.

 

[CobraAcesS]

This is missing some important context as well though Northern.

Bo's only 1.5 years older than McTavsh, and he's only played 2 more regular season NHL games than him. Yes two. So I don't see a big difference in their development time. Going off seasons is pretty misleading, since Bo has barely played in those seasons.

If you want to go off last season's production, Bo paced for a very similar 14 goals and 46 points to his 20 goal 47 point pace this year, while playing an even lesser role mostly on the third pair, with even less PP time, compared to McTavish's 17 goal 44 point pace this year.

As for role, whatever role McTavish had, it wasn't that much smaller than Bo's on defense playing on the second pair this year, getting about a 20 second PP2 shift at the end of the power play.

Meanwhile, McTavish played on PP1 and averaged 1:19 more than Bo this year. 33% of McTavish's points came on the PP, while only 25% of Bo's did. Season before only 6% of Bo's points came on the PP with 1 point.

All of that means there's a good chance Bo will produce at an even higher pace, if given a bigger role on the team as expected.

Bo is also a defenseman not a forward, so the overall TOI comparison is apples to oranges. Defenseman play more anyway, and forwards spend most of their shift trying to score, while defenseman spend most of their shift defending.

This is also why it's meaningful when a defenseman outscores or outpaces a forward in both goals and points.

That may not stay the same if McTavish gets better, but 21 year old 20+ goal 50+ point, two way, top pairing capable defenseman like Bo clearly is don't grow on trees, and they should NEVER be traded to fill a 2C role. Nor do they need to, in order to acquire one.

Yes

So if he's the chip, it needs to be someone with 1C upside. I'm comfortable they know that.

 

[Foppa2118]

Yes

So if he's the chip, it needs to be someone with 1C upside. I'm comfortable they know that.

With MacKinnon on the team, I disagree it's even worth it to trade Bo for 1C upside. Bo's basically already established himself as a top pairing D.

They're going to have to lose Girard or Toews for cap reasons anyway, and a Girard/Toews + Newhook + 1st trade should be able to get them a pretty damn good 2C.

Maybe with Landy on LTIR that changes next year and they keep Toews and G. But I don't think that's the right approach either.

They're going to lose one of them anyway, so they should just use the added cap space to fill out the forward depth next year, beyond adding a 2C. Especially with Val a question mark.

 

[CobraAcesS]

With MacKinnon on the team, I disagree it's even worth it to trade Bo for 1C upside. Bo's basically already established himself as a top pairing D.

They're going to have to lose Girard or Toews for cap reasons anyway, and a Girard/Toews + Newhook + 1st trade should be able to get them a pretty damn good 2C.

Maybe with Landy on LTIR that changes next year and they keep Toews and G. But I don't think that's the right approach either.

They're going to lose one of them anyway, so they should just use the added cap space to fill out the forward depth next year, beyond adding a 2C. Especially with Val a question mark.

I'd agree with that, but the right 1 & 2 punch can also shift the balance.

But no that's not what I'd prefer them to do.

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

I just can't see Vancouver retaining anything on Miller for the next 8 years. That's a lot to ask. If anything, because of his contract, it might drive the price to acquire him down. Personally, I would rather try for someone else besides Miller. That dude got paid, and then his effort level at times this season was less than ideal. Add that to the known issues he caused in their locker room, and that he has a NMC over the full 8 years of the deal, and I'd just stay away.

Here's a question that IDK if anyone knows the answer to, when you retain on a contract, does it have to be over the length of the deal? Like, could you get a team to retain a specified amount over x-amount of years, and then the cap hit becomes full after that?

Has to be the full length of the deal.

If we asked Vancouver for $1M of retention on Miller, that alone probably costs a 1st round pick. That would be $7M in retention over the 7 years and although its not a perfect simple comparison, cap dumps of $6M are worth a 1st round pick so it would be roughly the same for retention transactions.


That said, it could arguably still be worth it if Vancouver was willing. 2023 + 2024 1sts + Newhook for Miller at $7M for example. Though quite frankly I dont think Vancouver would have interest in those picks given what they did with the 1st round pick they got from Horvat. They're clearly not interested in a rebuild or retool at this point.


For Miller they'd want Byram from us for sure. Maybe Toews with an extension agreed upon.

 

[Hasbro]

Has to be the full length of the deal.

If we asked Vancouver for $1M of retention on Miller, that alone probably costs a 1st round pick. That would be $7M in retention over the 7 years and although its not a perfect simple comparison, cap dumps of $6M are worth a 1st round pick so it would be roughly the same for retention transactions.


That said, it could arguably still be worth it if Vancouver was willing. 2023 + 2024 1sts + Newhook for Miller at $7M for example. Though quite frankly I dont think Vancouver would have interest in those picks given what they did with the 1st round pick they got from Horvat. They're clearly not interested in a rebuild or retool at this point.


For Miller they'd want Byram from us for sure. Maybe Toews with an extension agreed upon.

This is a case where asking them to retain a $1 (Canadian) would get turned down since that eats up one of their retention slots for 7 years.

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

This is a case where asking them to retain a $1 (Canadian) would get turned down since that eats up one of their retention slots for 7 years.

Most likely, but you never know. With the ownership Vancouver has they're most likely never going to do a rebuild and so at that point they're highly unlikely to use those retention slots. So if they get a piece in the deal they really want(IE Byram) they might be willing to do it. $1M also isn't much cap wise, barely 1%.

 

[AvsMakar08]

Is Lundell still available for a trade?

 

[Cypher]

Gudas is so good. Hope the Avs go after him via UFA.

 

[atreyuavenged]

Watch it be someone like Holl if EJ is put out to the pasture.

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

Panthers are showing another example of how meaningless Defensive depth is. Marc Staal is playing Top 4 minutes lol.

 

[CobraAcesS]

Panthers are showing another example of how meaningless Defensive depth is. Marc Staal is playing Top 4 minutes lol.

That's what Manson was supposed to do if healthy, but on a whole other level.

Almost everyone awesome not a star fkn broke lol. Litterally or got worse.

 

[Balthazar]

Gudas has been an absolute stud for the Panthers so far. UFA at the end of the year, he's probably earning himself a pretty big contract.

 

[Mighty Makar]

Gudas is so good. Hope the Avs go after him via UFA.

I wanted him and Bennett at the deadline. If the Panthers were out, of course.

 

[The Moops]

I wanted him and Bennett at the deadline. If the Panthers were out, of course.

Bennett would fit in good here. I think he was 2/11 or something on the faceoff dot tonight

 

[expatriatedtexan]

The only way I would take Miller is if he voids any NMC/NTC. Even then, at Newhook and a 1st, I still think we could do better. I really don't like his age starting this thing, I'd rather give big money to a younger player, and more importantly I don't really want to add another hot head. We've already got Nate when he gets in a tizzy and this season for some reason Mikko's gone freaking nuts with the cross-checking. Do we really want to add another to the mix?

I'd take him over Compher being resigned to be a top-six player, but I really think there are better options and fits. Although the price to acquire is affordable.

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

The only way I would take Miller is if he voids any NMC/NTC. Even then, at Newhook and a 1st, I still think we could do better. I really don't like his age starting this thing, I'd rather give big money to a younger player, and more importantly I don't really want to add another hot head. We've already got Nate when he gets in a tizzy and this season for some reason Mikko's gone freaking nuts with the cross-checking. Do we really want to add another to the mix?

I'd take him over Compher being resigned to be a top-six player, but I really think there are better options and fits. Although the price to acquire is affordable.

Literally no chance we'd get a better player for that package.


Miller is a borderline 1C and he isn't just a 1 year rental. At this point in Newhooks value curve, that package would struggle to get us a 2C rental.

 

[Freaky Styley]

With MacKinnon on the team, I disagree it's even worth it to trade Bo for 1C upside. Bo's basically already established himself as a top pairing D.

They're going to have to lose Girard or Toews for cap reasons anyway, and a Girard/Toews + Newhook + 1st trade should be able to get them a pretty damn good 2C.

Maybe with Landy on LTIR that changes next year and they keep Toews and G. But I don't think that's the right approach either.

They're going to lose one of them anyway, so they should just use the added cap space to fill out the forward depth next year, beyond adding a 2C. Especially with Val a question mark.

Agreed. Role with Bo + one of Toews/Girard in the top 4 and sign a bottom pair D.

If needed, go out and find a more reliable guy. Certainly easier to find a solid bottom pair D at the deadline than a high-end top 6F

 

[PAZ]

Panthers are showing another example of how meaningless Defensive depth is. Marc Staal is playing Top 4 minutes lol.

Not an example until they win the cup. Nobody talks about the teams that made it to the conference finals.

 

[Freaky Styley]

Not an example until they win the cup. Nobody talks about the teams that made it to the conference finals.

Ya I think that script will change pretty quick lol. Literally if any of the other teams win except Edmonton depth (at all positions) will be the main reason

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

Not an example until they win the cup. Nobody talks about the teams that made it to the conference finals.

It is still absolutely an example


They're beating teams with much better D cores then them. Simple as that. They're proving once again that Forwards and forward depth is far, far more important then Defensive depth.

 

[Freaky Styley]

It is still absolutely an example


They're beating teams with much better D cores then them. Simple as that. They're proving once again that Forwards and forward depth is far, far more important then Defensive depth.

What are you smoking Pierce? 'Proving once again'? When has this ever been the case?

We literally won last year because of our defensive depth. Bo was a 3rd pairing dman who stepped up when Girard got hurt. He was one of our best players in the final. Time and time again defense has proven to win championships.

Pittsburgh is the only team that may be the exception here over the last 10 years. And this isn't just about player caliber, but style of the team and defensive forwards. Right now FLA is getting a little bit of that from everyone buying in but also mostly surviving on the back of Bob

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

What are you smoking Pierce? 'Proving once again'? When has this ever been the case?

We literally won last year because of our defensive depth. Bo was a 3rd pairing dman who stepped up when Girard got hurt. He was one of our best players in the final. Time and time again defense has proven to win championships.

That just isn't true at all. Centers are the most important position in hockey.

 

[MacKaRant]

With MacKinnon on the team, I disagree it's even worth it to trade Bo for 1C upside. Bo's basically already established himself as a top pairing D.

I don't think Bo has established himself as a top pair D yet. Wildly inconsistent and has had repeated defensive lapses throughout the season. In Game 5 against Seattle when Makar was out and you'd want him to step up, he had the worst metrics on the team 32% xGF in 24 minutes of 5v5 ice time. Toews far outplayed Bo in the Seattle series.

And this is before you consider the injury history and the risk there.

Bo has the potential to be a top pair guy, but he's not there yet and I think his game was in better shape during the Cup run than the previous season. Didn't take a step forward (injuries didn't help of course), probably went a little backwards.