Rumor: 2023-2024 Trade Rumors and Free Agency: Off-season is in full swing

[JH21]

I think the path forward with Toews is pretty clear. He plays this year and you try to extend him next off-season. You can’t give him 9, so if he doesn’t take a discount you let him go.

I think there’s a lot of value in keeping Toews this year, seeing as the Avs and Oilers are going to be on a collision course in the West imo. Part of the reason Colorado beat them last time was because of the overwhelming advantage on the backend.

I also think Byram could use one more year of development before moving into that role full-time.

Why can't we give him 9?

We have 17 mil in space next year with 8 core forwards signed and our top 4 Dmen signed (minus Toews)

Sign him for 9 and trade Girard for futures and we still have 13 mil in space to fill out the roster.

Then in 2024 we wpild have 35 mil in space taking Toews 9 mil salary into account to sign Rantanen, Byram and Georgiev.

You don't keep middling average players around making 5 mil a year and let star players walk.

 

[Colorado Avalanche]

Who cares. You keep elite players over average players all day long.

Find me one trade in the past 10 years where a team traded a star player for pieces and didn't get fleeced.

True. Keep your elite players.

 

[NorthernAvsFan]

Why can't we give him 9?

We have 17 mil in space next year with 8 core forwards signed and our top 4 Dmen signed (minus Toews)

Sign him for 9 and trade Girard for futures and we still have 13 mil in space to fill out the roster.

Then in 2024 we wpild have 35 mil in space taking Toews 9 mil salary into account to sign Rantanen, Byram and Georgiev.

You don't keep middling average players around making 5 mil a year and let star players walk.

I probably should’ve phrased that better.

You could find a way to do it, it’s just not something I’d do.

You’re talking about trading Girard, which I’d certainly look at if Toews signed at a reasonable cap hit.

I’m not going to 9 with Toews though. I don’t think it’s the best way to use the cap. The only guys I’m giving that kind of money to are Makar, MacKinnon, and Rantanen.

You start handing out too many 9+ contracts and you don’t have depth.

Can’t really ignore Toews age here. If he was 25, I might try to make it work.

 

[EdAVSfan]

Why can't we give him 9?

We have 17 mil in space next year with 8 core forwards signed and our top 4 Dmen signed (minus Toews)

Sign him for 9 and trade Girard for futures and we still have 13 mil in space to fill out the roster.

Then in 2024 we wpild have 35 mil in space taking Toews 9 mil salary into account to sign Rantanen, Byram and Georgiev.

You don't keep middling average players around making 5 mil a year and let star players walk.

That assumes Landeskog doesn't come back.

If Landeskog comes back, we sign Toews for 9, trade Girard for futures, the Avs would have a salary cap of just under 81M, for 13 players. That leaves you with 6.7M for 8-9 players.

Thats almost half the team at league-minimum contracts.

 

[Belgican]

I don’t know how much and how long for Toews, but if the Avs are serious about extending their actual window, they should try to sign him now.

 

[thedoctor]

Yes, only because their 1st round pick turned out to be Byram. The players we got are average at best.

Bowen Byram
Sam Girard
Vlad Kamanev
Andrew Hammond
Shane Bowers
Matthew Steinberg

For Duchene.

Meanwhile Duchene has scored 138 goals over 6 years averaging 23 a year.

Byram may end up being the best player out of that trade but in the 6 years since the trade happened Duchene was clearly the best.

Hey you asked, I delivered.

And yeah that's how it works, you have to hit to win in such a trade. You are trading known immediate value for futures. The futures are dice rolls. Odds are almost always in favor of the futures being less value, but the upside and altered timing are often the right move.

In the Avs' situation with Toews, you're right that if we're going to gain value on the team in raw player ability, that's unlikely. But that's not really what's going on, that's what everyone is telling you. You can't have a team of 20 10m players. You must find balance.

The Avs risk being crazy top heavy with a Toews extension, and in its own way that might doom the team's contending chances if they have shitty depth all the time as a result. The right move might be to roll the dice on our (excellent) pro scouting finding cheaper upside elsewhere exactly like they did to find Toews in the first place.

 

[dahrougem2]

Karlsson, Doughty, Werenski, Macavoy, Fox, Jones, Nurse, Josi, Hamilton and Makar are the defensemen in the NHL that currently make 9 million or more. Toews' agent is going to point straight at Nurse and Jones and use them as leverage in his negotiations. Every agent knows about the big coming cap increase in the next few years. There's absolutely no way Toews will sign an extension for under 9. This will be his only pay day in the NHL. He's going to make it count. Hometown discount is a myth. Mikko didn't take one, MacK didn't take one, Landy didn't take one, Kadri didn't take one, no one is going to take one.

I don't believe there is a single comparable defensemen that you listed there.

 

[Avs_19]

Two guys who stood out while looking at the Capfriendly list are Pietrangelo and Spurgeon due to the age and production. Toews might fall somewhere between those two for his AAV unless they give him 8 years to get the cap hit down, which I doubt.

I think he’s one of the best defensemen in the NHL. He got some Canadian Olympic team and fringe Norris buzz and I still feel he’s underrated.

 

[the_fan]

The only way Avs can resign Toews is if they trade Girard. When Toews contract is up, the cap is gonna go up by like 5 or 6 mill, which means they’ll have to come up with another 3 or 4 mill. This is of course not counting on Landy coming back. If Landy comes back, I have no freakin idea what the hell they gonna do.

 

[GeoRox89]

I probably should’ve fraised that better.

You could find a way to do it, it’s just not something I’d do.

You’re talking about trading Girard, which I’d certainly look at if Toews signed at a reasonable cap hit.

I’m not going to 9 with Toews though. I don’t think it’s the best way to use the cap. The only guys I’m giving that kind of money to are Makar, MacKinnon, and Rantanen.

You start handing out too many 9+ contracts and you don’t have depth.

Can’t really ignore Toews age here. If he was 25, I might try to make it work.

Damn strawberries. Always been more of a blackberry fan myself

Toews age curve is actually an interesting case. He came into the league so much older than normal that it’s hard to tell if he’ll have a short peak and fall off at a normal age or keep going longer with less wear on his body

 

[Balthazar]

I don’t know how much and how long for Toews, but if the Avs are serious about extending their actual window, they should try to sign him now.

Absolutely not. We don't know yet what Byram can do and we don't know if Toews is going to keep regressing, which would make him cheaper later.

 

[sethro109]

I don't believe there is a single comparable defensemen that you listed there.

Seth Jones​

GP	G	A	PTS	+/-	PIM	S	PPG	PPA	SHG	SHA	GWG	TOI/G	PROD
72	12	25	37	-38	30	178	2	10	0	1	1	24:27	47:34

Darnell Nurse​

GP	G	A	PTS	+/-	PIM	S	PPG	PPA	SHG	SHA	GWG	TOI/G	PROD
82	12	31	43	26	64	203	0	1	2	1	4	23:29	44:48

Devon Toews​

GP	G	A	PTS	+/-	PIM	S	PPG	PPA	SHG	SHA	GWG	TOI/G	PROD
80	7	43	50	39	26	165	1	6	0	0	0	25:06	40:10

You see these stat lines and you really don't see comparables?

 

[dahrougem2]

Seth Jones​

GP	G	A	PTS	+/-	PIM	S	PPG	PPA	SHG	SHA	GWG	TOI/G	PROD
72	12	25	37	-38	30	178	2	10	0	1	1	24:27	47:34

Darnell Nurse​

GP	G	A	PTS	+/-	PIM	S	PPG	PPA	SHG	SHA	GWG	TOI/G	PROD
82	12	31	43	26	64	203	0	1	2	1	4	23:29	44:48

Devon Toews​

GP	G	A	PTS	+/-	PIM	S	PPG	PPA	SHG	SHA	GWG	TOI/G	PROD
80	7	43	50	39	26	165	1	6	0	0	0	25:06	40:10

You see these stat lines and you really don't see comparables?

Why are you pulling random stats?

For example, Darnell Nurse signed his new contract after scoring 16 goals and 36 points in 56 games. He also signed it as a 25 year old.

There aren't any comparables to Toews being a 30 year old UFA defensemen.

 

[sethro109]

Why are you pulling random stats?

For example, Darnell Nurse signed his new contract after scoring 16 goals and 36 points in 56 games. He also signed it as a 25 year old.

There aren't any comparables to Toews being a 30 year old UFA defensemen.

Those aren't random stats. Those are last season totals. That's the first thing his agent will use in negotiations. Age won't play a big factor in his average. Karlsson signed his huge contract when he was 29. Someone on the open market will give him 9 a year, and that’s where all of his leverage comes from.

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

If Toews wants it he will easily get $9M on the market. I dont know if he'd get 7 years though.


This might also be a situation where the Avs use the 8th year to get the aav down.

If he gets offered 7x$9M, that's $63M. If the Avs offered the same $63M for 8 years instead, that would be $7.875M.


Similar to how we were able to get a discount on Nuke by going 8 years the Avs may be able to do the same with Toews.

 

[AnimalMother73]

I don’t think they sign Toews this summer, if they do. Too much uncertainty with other players that could really make the coming years difficult. I suspect they are using the full season to see if a) Byram takes another step in development (and stays healthy) and b) Landy can play again. Because if Landy comes back and Byram takes a significant step forward they will be likely be paying him close to the 9 million mark in two years.

 

[expatriatedtexan]

I don’t think they sign Toews this summer, if they do. Too much uncertainty with other players that could really make the coming years difficult. I suspect they are using the full season to see if a) Byram takes another step in development (and stays healthy) and b) Landy can play again. Because if Landy comes back and Byram takes a significant step forward they will be likely be paying him close to the 9 million mark in two years.

I can see that. But if I'm Toews' agent, and we don't get a deal done this summer, I'm telling him to hold out until July 1 for offers. The Avs are going to have to worry about Rants being a year from UFA next summer and that should be their priority then. Toews should be the priority the rest of this summer.

 

[TruePowerSlave]

Toews walking would be a complete disaster that sets the team back big time. He is clearly the 2nd best Dman on the roster and a core piece.

 

[AnimalMother73]

I can see that. But if I'm Toews' agent, and we don't get a deal done this summer, I'm telling him to hold out until July 1 for offers. The Avs are going to have to worry about Rants being a year from UFA next summer and that should be their priority then. Toews should be the priority the rest of this summer.

Do you think we could afford 3 top paid D men - Makar, Toews and Byram? Maybe in 2025 8-9 million / player will have less of an overall impact w the rising cap. Obviously making an assumption on Bryan’s growth curve here just think it would be challenging to have that much coin tied up in 3 of your D, almost certain G and Manson would have to go. It may be doable but I suspect the rest of the D core would have to be paid at the low end of 5th / 6th Dmen get.

 

[JH21]

Do you think we could afford 3 top paid D men - Makar, Toews and Byram?

We can and we will

 

[Vaslof]

Toews walking would be a complete disaster that sets the team back big time. He is clearly the 2nd best Dman on the roster and a core piece.

That's selling Byram short. It wouldn't be surprising if he's better than Toews as soon as next season. If Byram didn't exist then yeah we would have to sign Toews no matter the cost.

 

[henchman21]

I'm pretty sure everyone recognizes the risk. The debate I'm seeing is that :
1) Some think it was a bad move because there is risk, therefore they should have done something else, i.e. unload Girard and use that cap space on a 2C. I'm not sure they realize that it would be very, very hard to keep Toews next year if you use Girard's cap space elsewhere. Or most probably they don't care about next year.
2) Others think it was a good move, despite the risk, because they like the odds, it cost nothiing and we still have G as a asset to use if things go wrong.

Its the exact same think with Drouin. There is risk therefore its a bad move. They should have acquired a bona fide top 6 forward to replace Landeskog. Usually those in that category are the same wo ar in category 1) above. How they think we could have the cap space to get both a real 2C and a real Landeskog replacement is beyond me however...

As for RyJo, I just think that going from "Top 10 when he cares" to "as you describe him now" in roughly a year's time doesn't fit the "nothing has changed really". But that's OK, people can change their mind, nothing wrong with that. It’s not like he was amazing in the last few years. Actually I fully agree with your current assessment. It’s the previous one that I always thought was over the board.

There is a major difference on top 10 and top 10 when he cares…which is a major qualifier with RyJo. but hey go ahead and cook.


RyJo is one of the most talented centers of the last decade, and I’ve still said the upside is high here (it’s not top 10 any more with his natural age regression, but he’s talented)… many times said since the trade. I’ve liked the move. Those making it seem like it will absolutely work out, aren’t seeing the truth. Those not seeing his upside, aren’t seeing the talent.

 

[Andrew Wiggin]

Absolutely not. We don't know yet what Byram can do and we don't know if Toews is going to keep regressing, which would make him cheaper later.

I am in the camp that Toews has to be signed going into this year or traded. Hopefully they learned their lesson with Statsny and Landeskog you can't wait until they play out their last season unless the player is unwilling to talk extension then you trade them. If a team is planning on playoffs too you can't make a trade at the deadline either because you will likely need that player like the Statsny situation. You can still sign Toews then make the same decision between Girard and Byram depending on what Byram does and if he can stay healthy.

 

[LOFIN]

Samsonov arbitration should come down very soon. Will be interesting to see what the Leafs do to manage their salary cap clusterf***. Hopefully the arbitrator hits them with over 4mil.

 

[JH21]

That's selling Byram short. It wouldn't be surprising if he's better than Toews as soon as next season. If Byram didn't exist then yeah we would have to sign Toews no matter the cost.

Is it a bad thing that we would have 3 legit #1 defenders?