2023-2024 Playoff Tracker - updated after each DET game

[Roomba With a Bauer]

Fans are like this:

Month ago: we just need to win "our" games and we are fine;
Week ago: we just need to win against Washington and Pittsburgh and we are fine;
Today: we just need Washington and Pens to loose their remaining games and we are fine;
Week from now: golfing....

And yet 90% of fans see "a lot of positives".

The truth is this team blew it at multiple levels.

If Lalonde is fired that is at least one huge positive.

Put a real coach on this team with this roster and we are likely fighting Toronto for 3rd in the division.

Bad decisions like not using time outs and not pulling goalies are costing this team a lot of points.

 

[Retire91]

It's a miricle this team is sniffing the playoffs. If we wanted to make the playoffs this year we needed to fire Holland a few years earlier

 

[Henkka]

It's interesting how this goalie mess is going on everywhere.

Tristan Jarry was totally busted as Penguins' starter, and now it's Nedeljkovic, who is turning their season around and has got points from 11-games in-a-row. :O

We had three goalies, everyone started hot and turned cold.

Why not trying Cossa earlier.

 

[Pavels Dog]

Put a real coach on this team with this roster and we are likely fighting Toronto for 3rd in the division.

This roster ain't what you think it is.

 

[GarlicbreadTB]

It's wild how we're still in with a chance. Battle of the Mid...

 

[GarlicbreadTB]

Caps and Pens both have difficult games left. But annoyingly doubtful we can take advantage of that.

 

[schuelma24]

Caps and Pens both have difficult games left. But annoyingly doubtful we can take advantage of that.

Right - if you're just looking at things purely on paper, you could easily argue the Wings have a good shot - they're schedule is significantly easier than Caps and Pens.

... of course, in reality, I'd argue Montreal has played better than the Wings for the last month so paper doesn't mean all that much.

 

[Snuggs]

Runs over. It was a good ride for a while.

38 year rebuild still in play.

 

[LongTimeDRWF]

We have fewer loser points than any of the teams around us. Isles would be well out of the playoffs without their 15 pts.

The wings have 9 OT/SO wins versus 9 loser points (so 18 OT games), other teams such as NYI 9 OT/SO wins to 15 OTL (24 OT games), the others have pretty dismal OT records, Pens 4 OT/SO wins 12 loser points (16 OT games), Caps/Philly 4 OT/SO wins vs 11 OTL (15 OT games), so one could argue the reason the wings are in it is they are better (for a change) at the OT/SO game. But other than NYI, the OT games are pretty balanced in number, it is what it is, but dammit, we are seeing the wings play meaningful games heading into the last week of the regular season

I hope the one of lessons learned for the team is every game of the 82 matters so don't take any of them off and be consistent, had they gone 0.500 hockey from end of February, there is no race, they would have had clinched a while ago.

It is damn hard to flip the switch and count on having great results, it is easy to get goalied in this league, or have things like flu go around and wreck your month. (I think this week we are actually seeing a mostly healthy team this week for the first time in a while, likely too late for this year, but not out of it quite yet, hope for win out and see where the chips land)

I am greatly heartened by the growth in the kids in the lineup, SY should have gotten what he needed to see for leadership, so let's see a couple more next year, at least 1 D-man and a forward into the mix. (Berggren is not a kid, he belongs next year too, and despite the rumours, if SY did offer him a mid-season contract, SY considers him a keeper and will get one done unless JB wants to move on).

 

[Snuggs]

Teams point ceilings* assuming each wins every remaining game.

NYI* 95pts. (division)/(last wildcard)

PIT* 92pts. (division)/(last wildcard)
WSH* 91pts. (division)/(last wildcard)
DET* 91pts. (last wildcard)
PHI* 89pts. (division*technically)/(last wildcard)

Pretty sure Buffalo was officially eliminated with PIT hitting 86 points.

 

[GarlicbreadTB]

Pens and Islanders play each other last game too which could be interesting if we're still in with a chance.

 

[LongTimeDRWF]

Caps and Pens both have difficult games left. But annoyingly doubtful we can take advantage of that.

NYI doesn't have a cake walk, the Rangers tomorrow, followed by Jersey and Pens, if the Real Rags show up and Jersey holds at home, they could be heading into their final matchup with the Pens with only 89 points, they are the only team we could potentially win a tiebreaker with (both have 27 RW and 36 ROW), and for the wings to get 4 points in 2 games to tie them in points, they should be moving ahead in the tiebreaker. (Hope for some RW wins)

 

[Hen Kolland]

I'd argue Montreal has played better than the Wings for the last month so paper doesn't mean all that much.

There's not much to argue here; out of curiosity, I spent some time this morning looking to see exactly how catastrophic things have been since March started, and it was as bad as it felt.

On the last day of Feb, we had 72 points and a point % of 60% which was good for 6th in the East and 12th in the league overall. Since March started, in 19 games, we have totaled 13 points with a point % of 34.2% which is dead last in the East and 29th in the league ahead of only the Flames, Ducks and Sharks. From a goal differential perspective, we were 6th in the East and 11th in the League; March onward we are 2nd last in the East and 28th in the league. The only Eastern Conference team we are ahead of is Philly, and they lost their starting goaltender when he was arraigned for sexual assault.

A friend told me today that he saw something suggesting that we had the 3rd worst March of all time among teams that entered the month with a playoff spot. In all of NHL history.

It felt like complete shit the entire way through, but when you add context and relative ranks to the league into the mix, it's easy to understand the stance of "Lalonde shouldn't have a job" and while I don't necessarily stand there today, it becomes harder to defend when in 19 games since March started (8 without Larkin) that you can only produce 13 points.

Looking at the entire season, only two teams in the league have a points percentage below 34.2% for their entire season...Chicago and San Jose...two teams whose front offices have legitimately tried to be as bad as possible this season.

 

[Axel Sandy Pelikan]

Fans are like this:

Month ago: we just need to win "our" games and we are fine;
Week ago: we just need to win against Washington and Pittsburgh and we are fine;
Today: we just need Washington and Pens to loose their remaining games and we are fine;
Week from now: golfing....

And yet 90% of fans see "a lot of positives".

The truth is this team blew it at multiple levels.

Well dude, what do you want us to do?

It sucks that they’ve blown it. They were in the catbird’s seat and let it slip. That happened.

It’s also now plainly obvious that

1). Guys like Raymond can drive the bus.
2) Seider needs help on the backend and we can’t just run him out like he’s Nick Lidstrom
3). Our goaltending situation is completely untenable.

I'll never buy in that the first reaction to a collapse is "FIRE THE COACH". I mean, does he not get credit for having them in that successful place to begin with?

I mean, it's god f***in awful... but realistically, he's down to his #3 goalie who he's been riding like he's Igor Shesterkin.

I will absolutely light Lyon up for the game against the Pens. That was ridiculous. But in all honestly, he played great against the Caps. Compher lazily cleared it up the center right to a Cap and they got a clean shot. And the other was Alexander f***in Ovechkin with time at the faceoff dot.

Lyon has played great for the position he was put into. It doesn't excuse his abysmal game against the Pens, but it's really misguided to want to fire him out of a trebuchet.

 

[Detroit Knights]

Well, it sucks that the playoffs are probably flying away... but this whole last week has been playoff intensity. Yeah, it's not a playoff series, but every single trip down the ice is important and Raymond is thriving. Seider has a lot of work to do.

I am in a bitter sweet situation. I hate that this is all happening because if we would have just won one game during the terrible december we had and won one game during the most recent 7 game losing streak, we would be in a phenomenal position right now.

On the other hand, it's sweet because of what you said: the intensity. I have not seen raymond, seider, or larkin for that matter ever play with this hard of intensity. DBC has been playing very well defensively and yeah he hasn't scored in 20 games but at least he is not just skating around creating chances and doing nothing else. He is hustling (while falling down but still).

I honestly believe after that shorthanded goal last night that there is no way we are bring back Sprong. I don't hate keeping him, but I completely understand if we don't resign. I could also see and love it if we didn't resign veleno, too.

 

[DamonDRW]

Well dude, what do you want us to do?

It sucks that they’ve blown it. They were in the catbird’s seat and let it slip. That happened.

It’s also now plainly obvious that

1). Guys like Raymond can drive the bus.
2) Seider needs help on the backend and we can’t just run him out like he’s Nick Lidstrom
3). Our goaltending situation is completely untenable.

I'll never buy in that the first reaction to a collapse is "FIRE THE COACH". I mean, does he not get credit for having them in that successful place to begin with?

I mean, it's god f***in awful... but realistically, he's down to his #3 goalie who he's been riding like he's Igor Shesterkin.

I will absolutely light Lyon up for the game against the Pens. That was ridiculous. But in all honestly, he played great against the Caps. Compher lazily cleared it up the center right to a Cap and they got a clean shot. And the other was Alexander f***in Ovechkin with time at the faceoff dot.

Lyon has played great for the position he was put into. It doesn't excuse his abysmal game against the Pens, but it's really misguided to want to fire him out of a trebuchet.

Maybe things are be a bit realistic about our current state and our future? We found a way to miss the playoffs despite being 2pts out of the third place a month ago, we have no one at the offense as Raymond is playing this year for his 8M/8y contract, Kasper and Danielson scored 30pts less in the NHL as compared to let's say Benson because we need two way centers, we will draft at 15 thus year, etc. Well, we even seriously discuss the potential of Cleveland (who scored 8pts in THREE f***ing seasons) for a month now.

I'm not getting how to stay positive about all these things.

 

[Detroit Knights]

Why not trying Cossa earlier.

I would only even consider this if it is a guarantee in the last game of the year that we are done.

Even then, I am not sure I would because if he does not do well, then he has to go back to GR with a possible shattered confidence for their playoff experience run. I doubt it would happen but goalies are weird and the littlest things could mess with them for years it feels like lol

 

[Axel Sandy Pelikan]

Maybe things are be a bit realistic about our current state and our future? We found a way to miss the playoffs despite being 2pts out of the third place a month ago, we have no one at the offense as Raymond is playing this year for his 8M/8y contract, Kasper and Danielson scored 30pts less in the NHL as compared to let's say Benson because we need two way centers, we will draft at 15 thus year, etc. Well, we even seriously discuss the potential of Cleveland (who scored 8pts in THREE f***ing seasons) for a month now.

I'm not getting how to stay positive about all these things.

It's not worth discussing this with you. Yeah, shit sucks right now. Kasper and Danielson have a grand total of 15 f***ing minutes in the NHL. Cool, Benson got drafted and played well. I know that's a needle in the eye of all of you prospect mavens.

How about YOU be a little bit realistic about out future. It's clear as f***in day that Yzerman has been about "treading water" and being competitive in this 2021-now stretch with only most guys only 1-3 year deals. The whole plan has been financial flexibility and building up the miniors. It sucks that they tanked away a nice playoff position with bad play. Really sucks. But they were a team that overperformed winning 7 in a row and underperformed in the month following that. Shit man, this is hockey. They played well enough to beat the Caps... and they didn't. The skaters (sans Kane) played well enough to beat Pitt last night... but they didn't. it happens. Lyon had a nightmare game and so did Kaner.

Who on earth is discussing the potential of Brady Cleveland? When has one word been uttered about that pick outside of his draft topic?

You stay positive by seeing that Detroit has good hockey players at the NHL level, they've drafted talented youngsters (Kasper and Danielson for a couple have been quite good and Mazur was really good) and with the cap continuing to go up they have a lot of flexibility and a GM who has been successful before. Not saying blindly trust Yzerman, but if he was successful with Team Canada and then successful with Tampa... I'm not going to be like "He's a complete idiot that doesn't know what he's doing".

Bringing together a competitive team/roster takes time. This is the same shit that people who wanted to drum Harbaugh out for not winning a Natty at Michigan by 2019 or 2020 were doing. Oh it's been four years and he hasn't won? Better fire him to hire John Tortorella!

It's interesting how this goalie mess is going on everywhere.

Tristan Jarry was totally busted as Penguins' starter, and now it's Nedeljkovic, who is turning their season around and has got points from 11-games in-a-row. :O

View attachment 850328

We had three goalies, everyone started hot and turned cold.

Why not trying Cossa earlier.

Because goalies are lunatics. Goalies are literal headcases. That is not a position where the reasoning for bringing up a guy and playing him can NOT ever be "Why not?" You want to be thoughtful and deliberate bringing them on... or else you do what Detroit did with Howard and Mrazek and ruin two good goalies because you're yo-yoing them in and out of the lineup.

 

[Detroit Knights]

You stay positive by seeing that Detroit has good hockey players at the NHL level, they've drafted talented youngsters (Kasper and Danielson for a couple have been quite good and Mazur was really good) and with the cap continuing to go up they have a lot of flexibility and a GM who has been successful before. Not saying blindly trust Yzerman, but if he was successful with Team Canada and then successful with Tampa... I'm not going to be like "He's a complete idiot that doesn't know what he's doing".

I think an interesting hypothetical in relation to this post is: if we had the exact same rebuild as tampa bay to win two nattys and lose in the finals for the three peat, would you be okay with it?

if yes, then we have another 4 years or so left. if not, then you just want instant gratification like everyone else these days and that's fine and all, but you'll be more disappointed than happy.

Don't know if anyone here likes him but as an example, Gary Vaynerchuk (Gary Vee) says that you need to fall in love with the journey to appreciate when you are on top. It'll taste so much sweeter when it happens.

 

[Retire91]

I really don't understand the whingeing. If you are complaining about missing the playoffs you either just like to complain, are so addicted to disappointment that you seek it, or just don't understand reality.

Yzerman would have loved to make the playoffs this year but he did not intentionally build for it. The rebuild is on schedule. We are in the lucky to get in phase of the rebuild. If we don't get in, it's not underperforming, this is where this team, the way it is built should be. It was always going to be a slow roll. There is a good percentage of complainers that would still complain even if we made the playoffs. It's complaining just for the sake of complaining. We still have so many prospects in the pipeline that need a chance to fill out. We are not there yet and in all honesty not even really that close.

We saw what prioritizing the playoffs above all else does to a team. Yzerman was intentionally hired because we are fixing the damage from prioritizing the playoffs every year above all else. It can't always be about the playoffs as much as some people don't want to hear it. You can scream at a pot of water all you want, it is going to boil when it boils.

 

[Winger98]

It's not worth discussing this with you. Yeah, shit sucks right now. Kasper and Danielson have a grand total of 15 f***ing minutes in the NHL. Cool, Benson got drafted and played well. I know that's a needle in the eye of all of you prospect mavens.

How about YOU be a little bit realistic about out future. It's clear as f***in day that Yzerman has been about "treading water" and being competitive in this 2021-now stretch with only most guys only 1-3 year deals. The whole plan has been financial flexibility and building up the miniors. It sucks that they tanked away a nice playoff position with bad play. Really sucks. But they were a team that overperformed winning 7 in a row and underperformed in the month following that. Shit man, this is hockey. They played well enough to beat the Caps... and they didn't. The skaters (sans Kane) played well enough to beat Pitt last night... but they didn't. it happens. Lyon had a nightmare game and so did Kaner.

Who on earth is discussing the potential of Brady Cleveland? When has one word been uttered about that pick outside of his draft topic?

You stay positive by seeing that Detroit has good hockey players at the NHL level, they've drafted talented youngsters (Kasper and Danielson for a couple have been quite good and Mazur was really good) and with the cap continuing to go up they have a lot of flexibility and a GM who has been successful before. Not saying blindly trust Yzerman, but if he was successful with Team Canada and then successful with Tampa... I'm not going to be like "He's a complete idiot that doesn't know what he's doing".

Bringing together a competitive team/roster takes time. This is the same shit that people who wanted to drum Harbaugh out for not winning a Natty at Michigan by 2019 or 2020 were doing. Oh it's been four years and he hasn't won? Better fire him to hire John Tortorella!



Because goalies are lunatics. Goalies are literal headcases. That is not a position where the reasoning for bringing up a guy and playing him can NOT ever be "Why not?" You want to be thoughtful and deliberate bringing them on... or else you do what Detroit did with Howard and Mrazek and ruin two good goalies because you're yo-yoing them in and out of the lineup.

Bingo. It would have been nice to make the playoffs this year. It's incredibly frustrating how the Wings pissed that opportunity away. But it does not make or break the rebuild or the long term goals of the franchise.

Disagree about ruining Howard, though. Guy played over 500 games over 10+ seaons with a .912 sv%. Guy was a good goalie who had some injury issues at times.

 

[schuelma24]

I really don't understand the whingeing. If you are complaining about missing the playoffs you either just like to complain, are so addicted to disappointment that you seek it, or just don't understand reality.

Yzerman would have loved to make the playoffs this year but he did not intentionally build for it. The rebuild is on schedule. We are in the lucky to get in phase of the rebuild. If we don't get in, it's not underperforming, this is where this team, the way it is built should be. It was always going to be a slow roll. There is a good percentage of complainers that would still complain even if we made the playoffs. It's complaining just for the sake of complaining. We still have so many prospects in the pipeline that need a chance to fill out. We are not there yet and in all honesty not even really that close.

We saw what prioritizing the playoffs above all else does to a team. Yzerman was intentionally hired because we are fixing the damage from prioritizing the playoffs every year above all else. It can't always be about the playoffs as much as some people don't want to hear it. You can scream at a pot of water all you want, it is going to boil when it boils.

I don't disagree, but I think there should have been more of a balance this year between being competitive and getting the kids up for the experience. I'd feel so much better about this last month if it was Johannsen, Mazur, and Berggren taking lumps and developing rather than veterans screwing up who won't be here next year.

 

[GreatGordie9]

Before the season started the Wings were projected at 85 points and not make the playoffs. We have somewhat exceeded expectations especially if we finish above our current total.

 

[KJoe88]

I still believe we make it.

 

[minimal]

The context of how we ended up here matters--if this team was more steadily mid throughout the whole season instead of whipsawing from the top of the world to the gutter, I think we'd have a lot more whelmed fans here than not.

It's probably safe to say they're not making the playoffs at this point, but I don't think anyone can deny that the last couple of weeks have been playoff-lite in their intensity and ramifications. That being said, what hurts the most is that I think this team likely takes a step back in some way next year and won't get as close. Happy to be wrong.