Speculation: 2023-2024 General Lightning Discussion - Part 3

[RussianGuyovich]

i agree, a healthy serge could easily be the difference in this series at the moment. i trust the JBB process and can't wait for him to overpay for another player this off season and see what we get.

 

[These Are The Days]

I mean... I'm really wondering what y'all expect. We're without our second best defensemen after losing important depth talent every offseason. The Jeannot deal was bad - no way around that. Forget the price for the player - those were picks we could have used on more impactful trades.

But it's hard to get pissed with that deal when JBB has "overpaid" three other times for players and they've each worked out to varying degrees (Hagel, Coleman, Goodrow). If Jeannot was a 15g, 35 point guy with his physicality it would feel fine. Instead he's like an 8-10 goal 20 point guy so that sucks. But the difference is in the margins there.

But shit - we weren't going to be the late 70s Habs. The question is if this core can stay good long enough to retool the roster around them a bit. We've already got some of the supporting pieces in Hagel and Paul - the question is if we can get a bit more depth (mainly on D).

Preach mate

 

[EmptyNetAssassin]

I mean... I'm really wondering what y'all expect. We're without our second best defensemen after losing important depth talent every offseason. The Jeannot deal was bad - no way around that. Forget the price for the player - those were picks we could have used on more impactful trades.

But it's hard to get pissed with that deal when JBB has "overpaid" three other times for players and they've each worked out to varying degrees (Hagel, Coleman, Goodrow). If Jeannot was a 15g, 35 point guy with his physicality it would feel fine. Instead he's like an 8-10 goal 20 point guy so that sucks. But the difference is in the margins there.

But shit - we weren't going to be the late 70s Habs. The question is if this core can stay good long enough to retool the roster around them a bit. We've already got some of the supporting pieces in Hagel and Paul - the question is if we can get a bit more depth (mainly on D).

We claimed him off waivers. No one predicted him to evolve into the player he is now

 

[DFC]

Notable leaves since JBB toon over

Verhaghe
Killorn
Palat
Maroon
Perry
McDonagh
Colton
Schenn
Bogosian
Coleman
Goodrow
Gourde

Players to come in
Hagel (fantastic. Credit where its due)
Paul (okay)
Dehaan
Cole
Sheary
Jeannot
Dumba
Duclair

You're not gonna keep everyone but man...way to chose the wrong ones. Either capitalize on gaining assets and moving players, don't give such terrible contracts that hurt the team and don't make poor trades that strip you of assets to aquire better talent or move deadweight.

Almost every one of those players priced themself off the team. The bottom list is a list of cheap replacements.

This is just the cap at work. We had guys on ELCs and bridge deals through the glory years. Then it came time to pay them. That cost us other players.

 

[Hockeyville USA]

The window shut last year and it's completely closed, dead on arrival now.

Love the memories of watching the Cup teams and the warrior like grind effort to get to the 2022 Final.

Would have been nice to get another Cup but that's why it's the hardest trophy to win. 2018 pisses me off for how that team pissed away a pretty easy path to a Cup.

 

[TheSchmidt]

JBB is a good frontrunner.

It should have been a huge red flag when he paid a 1st for Barclay Goodrow. There's a reason Coleman and Gourde are still main pieces of their teams and Rangers fans want him bought out.

The guy can't evaluate players and find bargains. We're paying Sheary and Jeannot whatever we are to average like 7 minutes this series while Florida is paying Mikkola 2.5 to eat up 20+ minutes

I know it's a tough job with the salary cap not moving, but he's failed miserably.

 

[Hockeyville USA]

JBB is a good frontrunner.

It should have been a huge red flag when he paid a 1st for Barclay Goodrow. There's a reason Coleman and Gourde are still main pieces of their teams and Rangers fans want him bought out.

The guy can't evaluate players and find bargains. We're paying Sheary and Jeannot whatever we are to average like 7 minutes this series while Florida is paying Mikkola 2.5 to eat up 20+ minutes

I know it's a tough job with the salary cap not moving, but he's failed miserably.

The biggest red flag is overpaying for UFAs when you're in a natural advantage of being a no tax state where you should be able to get even better value.

Overpaying in trades is a result of him losing his mind plus low AAV players costing far more at the deadline because they have huge value in the flat cap era

Tangent: DeMelo, Chatfield, Pesce, Walker, Roy are the top right shot D UFAs for this summer, for all of your references

 

[JTBF81]

The biggest red flag is overpaying for UFAs when you're in a natural advantage of being a no tax state where you should be able to get even better value.

Overpaying in trades is a result of him losing his mind plus low AAV players costing far more at the deadline because they have huge value in the flat cap era

Tangent: DeMelo, Chatfield, Pesce, Walker, Roy are the top right shot D UFAs for this summer, for all of your references

Chatfield works perfectly if he makes it to ufa. As long as JBB clears out the dead weight guys(Sheary, Jeannot and Perbix,.there's enough space for Stamkos, Duke.or.another F in the ~4 range and Chatfield in the 3 range. DeMelo, Walker or Roy would require spending considerably less at F, and I doubt they go after Pesce with his latest injury news.

 

[LTIR Trickery]

Pesce wouldn't be a bad option. Montour, if Florida somehow can't sign him, would be a great pickup but likely too rich for us currently. OEL is another that could possibly come on a cheaper deal and likely be a great fit with Hedman, and gives Cernak to babysit Sergy and Raddysh.

 

[Hockeyville USA]

Pesce wouldn't be a bad option. Montour, if Florida somehow can't sign him, would be a great pickup but likely too rich for us currently. OEL is another that could possibly come on a cheaper deal and likely be a great fit with Hedman, and gives Cernak to babysit Sergy and Raddysh.

BriseBois should have pursued OEL more last summer. Worked when he got Shattenkirk. Instead, he signs De Haan who hasn't been consistently playable in 4-5 years, proceeding to let Cole walk

 

[TheSchmidt]

I'm know this isn't some hot take, but 4/6 of the dmen need to be replaced next year before worrying about the forwards imo. Getting some guys who can actually move the puck would hopefully make the 5v5 offense a little better

Hedman and Sergy can stay (though i woudn't be opposed to moving him)

Cernak just ain't that guy anymore, you could probably find a guy who does what he does nowadays for half that cap hit.

Don't even care the quality of the return.

Utah would seem like a great fit. They're gonna wanna try to make some flashy moves and have the need.

 

[Soul Assumption]

yeah you can see when a guy like Montour on the ice he makes a huge difference in the offensive zone. TBL has 5 dmen who have ZERO offensive skills combined

 

[Byrddog]

It is going to be a long summer. This is a position here both coach and GM are fired. That said IMO Coop is not the issue. Defending JBB at this point is asinine, not every move a GM makes will be gold but as a body of work since the last cup he has made some real bonehead decisions. The only decent moves he has made has been Hagel and Duclair. By even now Hagel is overpaid on his new contract. Drawing the Panthers in round one has not helped. Clearly the Panthers are a better team. I expect somehow we get a win in game four and the series is a wrap in game 5. One step at a time now it starts next week by replacing JBB and maybe Coop. Then we can get into players to see how long it takes to return to cup contenders. Just squeaking in the post season is not acceptable to this team.

 

[LightningStrikes]

Both (Coop/JBB) should be fine or rather safe. With an almost stagnant salary cap the past few years and players getting paid after three Cup runs JBB took some gambles that didn’t pan out and Coop tried to change stuff to make it work but it didn’t. But what else could they have done? I don’t think Vinik will look at the situation and start firing people. Especially with key injuries playing a part as well this season (Vas, Serg).

 

[DFC]

I'm know this isn't some hot take, but 4/6 of the dmen need to be replaced next year before worrying about the forwards imo. Getting some guys who can actually move the puck would hopefully make the 5v5 offense a little better

Hedman and Sergy can stay (though i woudn't be opposed to moving him)

Cernak just ain't that guy anymore, you could probably find a guy who does what he does nowadays for half that cap hit.

Don't even care the quality of the return.

Utah would seem like a great fit. They're gonna wanna try to make some flashy moves and have the need.

I would say 2 of the defensemen. It's a bit of a luxury to have 6/7 guys who are solid nhl D. But we need 4 or 5. As much as we like Raddysh, he's a bottom pairing D on a contender.

It is going to be a long summer. This is a position here both coach and GM are fired. That said IMO Coop is not the issue. Defending JBB at this point is asinine, not every move a GM makes will be gold but as a body of work since the last cup he has made some real bonehead decisions. The only decent moves he has made has been Hagel and Duclair. By even now Hagel is overpaid on his new contract. Drawing the Panthers in round one has not helped. Clearly the Panthers are a better team. I expect somehow we get a win in game four and the series is a wrap in game 5. One step at a time now it starts next week by replacing JBB and maybe Coop. Then we can get into players to see how long it takes to return to cup contenders. Just squeaking in the post season is not acceptable to this team.

The idea that Hagel is overpaid given the current state of NHL contracts is just insane.

 

[DFC]

Both (Coop/JBB) should be fine or rather safe. With an almost stagnant salary cap the past few years and players getting paid after three Cup runs JBB took some gambles that didn’t pan out and Coop tried to change stuff to make it work but it didn’t. But what else could they have done? I don’t think Vinik will look at the situation and start firing people. Especially with key injuries playing a part as well this season (Vas, Serg).

I think they both have next year before their seats warm up TOO much. And I think our relationship with Cooper is too good/respectful to call it a "firing" when it happens.

 

[Lightning1995]

Decade long run of excellence. 7 Eastern conference final appearances. 4 cup finals, two championships. This core delivered in spades.

The gig is up, I hope Vinik doesn’t drag this out like Pitt and Wash. The assets on this team would bring back huge value and they will all waive when they see the writing on the wall. 25 1st is top 10 protected

 

[Stammertime91]

This is what I'd lock in:

Hagel - Point -
______ - Stamkos - Kucherov
______ - Paul -
Motte - Glendening - Eyssimont

Hedman -
Sergachev -
Lilleberg - Raddysh/Crozier

There's two guys worth listening in on and that's Cernak and Cirelli because of their value. Cirelli being highly regarded league wide and a center. Cernak being a RHD. Both would return assets or a younger roster player that can fill a need. This team has needed wingers as we always shift centers to wing instead. That's why Duclair looked like an immediate fit. I'm all for letting him walk after this round. Has the compete level of a plastic bag out there. Chaffee is decent and maybe worth keeping but when you factor in keeping Eyssimont AND most likely, Jeannot even though we don't want him, the bottom six still looks like shit. It's God awful. Production, energy, leadership, it's dog shit. Paul with two physical wingers that can skate would be insane.

Defense obviously needs help. Sergachev unfortunately got hurt and that singed our backend, but even with him, it needs more defensive minded guys capable of not hot potatoe-ing the puck. Let Dumba, Perbix, and CDH go. Please. Trade Perbix. Listen on Cernak. As @DFC said, we like Raddysh but he shouldn't be on the first pairing. I like the guy a lot, but he is in over his head at times. I'd like to see a defensive defenseman with Sergachev and a PMD like Rutta used to be with Hedman, one better defensively than Raddysh (like Rutta was as well).

In short, there's a lot of AHL/NHL tweener quality on the team that helped us clinch, but until we get serious, we are going to be annual first round exits.

 

[DFC]

Decade long run of excellence. 7 Eastern conference final appearances. 4 cup finals, two championships. This core delivered in spades.

The gig is up, I hope Vinik doesn’t drag this out like Pitt and Wash. The assets on this team would bring back huge value and they will all waive when they see the writing on the wall. 25 1st is top 10 protected

100% this. Before we complain about players and management too much, this was the most successful franchise in the league for the last decade. It's been better here than anywhere else.


This is the decline. It's worth another shot or two, because our main players are still in their primes. But any team who does better in the cap era will be a dynasty.

 

[bigdaddio]

Im just still frustrated we refuse to ice the puck when things are breaking down. New rule, if the puck passes behind the net more than 1 time and you get it on your stick just fire it down the ice. Almost every goal from Florida is ring it around the zone blue-line around the back of the goal, win fore check ring it around again, win forecheck, ring it again, get a bounce in the slot score.

 

[OffBy1]

100% this. Before we complain about players and management too much, this was the most successful franchise in the league for the last decade. It's been better here than anywhere else.


This is the decline. It's worth another shot or two, because our main players are still in their primes. But any team who does better in the cap era will be a dynasty.

I agree with most of what you've been saying except our main players being in their prime.

Hedman and Stamkos (despite his warrior performance last night) are definitely not. Point isn't creating offensive on his own like he used to. Cirelli is tied for the team lead right now with a -4 through three games and has 1 point. Vasy and Kuch are the only two that look like they are in their primes to me and I believe Kuch exhausted himself from carrying the team through the regular season.

I think we'll get more of the same if we take another shot or two and just delay the inevitable rebuild.

 

[Felonious Python]

Bunderthug has been giving 'George Lopez in Blue Beetle' vibes lately.

 

[LTIR Trickery]

Decade long run of excellence. 7 Eastern conference final appearances. 4 cup finals, two championships. This core delivered in spades.

The gig is up, I hope Vinik doesn’t drag this out like Pitt and Wash. The assets on this team would bring back huge value and they will all waive when they see the writing on the wall. 25 1st is top 10 protected

Kuch is 30 and point is 28. The gig is up.

Real truth is they have to hit with a prospect here soon to help. You have Jeannot here for another year, and Sheary here for 2 more (with NTC). Some guys get raises, theres not a lot of cash to work with looking forward, at least not for 2ish seasons. Unless they can wrap someone like Sheary and Cernak up in a deal for help and/or relief, the only real help coming is likely internally.

 

[Byrddog]

I would say 2 of the defensemen. It's a bit of a luxury to have 6/7 guys who are solid nhl D. But we need 4 or 5. As much as we like Raddysh, he's a bottom pairing D on a contender.


The idea that Hagel is overpaid given the current state of NHL contracts is just insane.

Insane quite possibly, however he is tied for 75th in the league in goals. Now I suppose one could make a case that all those should be in the 6.5 mil range. The thing is in a cap restricted league the contracts are bloated. Even through the flat years of Covid there has been little restraint on the money given out. Give the number of expensive contracts held by the bolts the roster is forced to where this one is. A few high end guys nd a load of 4th liners and inadequate defensemen.

I Hagel is a nice player he would be great at 4mil. But just comparing him to hat this guy got or that one does not make sense it is just trying to justify paying him more same with Sergi. It’s really clear that Cirelli overpaid as well due to the needs of the roster. Hagel is being paid more for his youth a direction the league has been heading. Hagel does not carry a line like Kuch or Point can he’s a improvment over Palat but all around does not play the role Killer did. It is impossible to ignore the contracts JBB gave out after the two cup wins. The players living up o those contracts is a issue because they all have term.

 

[LTIR Trickery]

Insane quite possibly, however he is tied for 75th in the league in goals. Now I suppose one could make a case that all those should be in the 6.5 mil range. The thing is in a cap restricted league the contracts are bloated. Even through the flat years of Covid there has been little restraint on the money given out. Give the number of expensive contracts held by the bolts the roster is forced to where this one is. A few high end guys nd a load of 4th liners and inadequate defensemen.

I Hagel is a nice player he would be great at 4mil. But just comparing him to hat this guy got or that one does not make sense it is just trying to justify paying him more same with Sergi. It’s really clear that Cirelli overpaid as well due to the needs of the roster. Hagel is being paid more for his youth a direction the league has been heading. Hagel does not carry a line like Kuch or Point can he’s a improvment over Palat but all around does not play the role Killer did. It is impossible to ignore the contracts JBB gave out after the two cup wins. The players living up o those contracts is a issue because they all have term.

Hes a 25 year old forward with 25, 30, and 26 goals in the last 3 seasons, He makes 1.5 million currently which is ridiculous and makes 9 next season on a 6.5 caphit. Thats... a fantastic deal. There is a lot of shit on this roster that you could point at and put together a likely decent argument about it being bad, but Hagel is probably the absolute worst example to use.