Speculation: 2023-2024 General Lightning Discussion - Part 3

[LTIR Trickery]

Re: Verhaeghe you have to realize he also has to sign the deal and want to stay, unless you wanted to risk arbitration forcing us to sign him for even more than we could afford. You can blame Cooper as much as JBB for that for giving him the sense he wouldn't have a good chance of breaking into the top 6 scoring role here.

Carter was offered a contract, he just took a role promised to him in Florida instead.

 

[Rschmitz]

Here's the simple, objective truth. When JBB has a full cupboard of picks and prospects and the most talented roster in the league, he's looked great. When the cupboard is empty and the roster watered down, hes looked less great.

Even if the belief is he was gifted the current group of players and the two cups, he deserves big credit for Hagel, and he threaded the needle this TDL with picking up Duclair. That's my opinion, this isn't Jay Feaster, he's actually capable of being ingenuitive.

He also deserves a transition period, we were clearly all in, the step back was necessary to consolidate the organization.

The big question is if he can rebuild the talent levels now. If the plan is to rest on his laurels and enter every season as a fringe playoff team with an aging roster and limited expectations, instead of exploring ways to find cheaper/better talent, he's not doing a great job. Let's see what happens this offseason

 

[Rschmitz]

Carter was offered a contract, he just took a role promised to him in Florida instead.

You sure? He wasn't even extended a qualifying offer from us, two days later he signed with Florida.

I think you're confusing him for JMass, who did leave for an expanded role despite us offering him the same deal.

Florida stole two hidden gems from under our noses.

 

[These Are The Days]

Why are we talking about dudes from 5 to 8 years ago like they'd still be blowing it up here? We couldn't have afforded to keep them even if we had wanted to. The cap hasn't gone up since like 2019 and after 3 years of going all in (nearly threepeating in the process mind you), we're dumpster diving for leftovers and we're getting pissed for getting leftovers.

 

[Rschmitz]

Why are we talking about dudes from 5 to 8 years ago like they'd still be blowing it up here? We couldn't have afforded to keep them even if we had wanted to. The cap hasn't gone up since like 2019 and after 3 years of going all in, we're dumpster diving for leftovers and we're getting pissed for getting leftovers.

You mean the guy on the other bench who's skull f***ing us every chance he gets? I have no idea why that would be relevant to talk about him right now, lol

 

[LTIR Trickery]

You sure? He wasn't even extended a qualifying offer from us, two days later he signed with Florida.

I think you're confusing him for JMass, who did leave for an expanded role despite us offering him the same deal.

Florida stole two hidden gems from under our noses.

Nope, there were discussions and offers. He was just promised a bigger role in South Florida.

 

[These Are The Days]

You mean the guy on the other bench who's skull f***ing us every chance he gets? I have no idea why that would be relevant to talk about him right now, lol

Alright. I'm gonna sit here and listen to how we'd have hung onto CV and JM in a flat cap and why it was better than Goodrow, Hagel, Savard, Paul and Coleman. I'm gonna nuke the 2 Cups we won while we're at it because we won without them

 

[Rschmitz]

Alright. I'm gonna sit here and listen to how we'd have hung onto CV and JM in a flat cap and why it was better than Goodrow, Hagel, Savard, Paul and Coleman

Season isn't even over and they are trying to prepare themselves mentally. It's just a coping mechanism, I wouldn't try to engage in rational thought with it.

Nope, there were discussions and offers. He was just promised a bigger role in South Florida.

Can you provide a source for me? I looked with no luck. Thanks!

 

[These Are The Days]

Season isn't even over and they are trying to prepare themselves mentally. It's just a coping mechanism, I wouldn't try to engage in rational thought with it.



Can you provide a source for me? I looked with no luck. Thanks!

For what it's worth, I'm about 2 more bad periods from joining you. The reason I'm carrying on like this is because the next time I breathe a sigh of relief that matches the one I had when we beat Dallas, I'll find out I either have a healthy baby or me/someone I love doesn't have cancer. We might be getting our ass kicked but I cannot force myself to be upset. The only thing I'd have done differently is a soft reset right after the back to back. Trade Killer and Sergachev and keep all the assets. Downside: no Paul and Hagel


Annndddd that's why I'm not a GM

 

[Renopucker]

Wayyy off topic I guess, but on a lighter note, has anybody else noticed the lack of "playoff beards" on every team? I'd say less than 50% of the guys are sporting 'em. Did this start last year and I just didn't notice? Maybe its just the grizzled vets that have them. Oh, btw, the Bruins just dumped the fallen leafs. Everything is puckering in TO.

 

[Rschmitz]

For what it's worth, I'm about 2 more bad periods from joining you. The reason I'm carrying on like this is because the next time I breathe a sigh of relief that matches the one I had when we beat Dallas, I'll find out I either have a healthy baby or me/someone I love doesn't have cancer. We might be getting our ass kicked but I cannot force myself to be upset. The only thing I'd have done differently is a soft reset right after the back to back. Trade Killer and Sergachev and keep all the assets. Downside: no Paul and Hagel


Annndddd that's why I'm not a GM

I'm just happy we made the playoffs, you won't hear any complaining from me.

Wayyy off topic I guess, but on a lighter note, has anybody else noticed the lack of "playoff beards" on every team? I'd say less than 50% of the guys are sporting 'em. Did this start last year and I just didn't notice? Maybe its just the grizzled vets that have them. Oh, btw, the Bruins just dumped the fallen leafs. Everything is puckering in TO.

We're just to used to seeing them since we have long postseason runs. It's round 1, a lot of guys shave them off at the start lol

 

[DMB06]

Here's the simple, objective truth. When JBB has a full cupboard of picks and prospects and the most talented roster in the league, he's looked great. When the cupboard is empty and the roster watered down, hes looked less great.

Even if the belief is he was gifted the current group of players and the two cups, he deserves big credit for Hagel, and he threaded the needle this TDL with picking up Duclair. That's my opinion, this isn't Jay Feaster, he's actually capable of being ingenuitive.

He also deserves a transition period, we were clearly all in, the step back was necessary to consolidate the organization.

The big question is if he can rebuild the talent levels now. If the plan is to rest on his laurels and enter every season as a fringe playoff team with an aging roster and limited expectations, instead of exploring ways to find cheaper/better talent, he's not doing a great job. Let's see what happens this offseason

I agree with some of this but that Jeannot trade really spoils most of it. It was really bad dude, like unbelievably bad.

And I know about the cap restrictions but man, it sure would be nice to still have McDonagh.

 

[Sky04]

Here's the simple, objective truth. When JBB has a full cupboard of picks and prospects and the most talented roster in the league, he's looked great. When the cupboard is empty and the roster watered down, hes looked less great.

Even if the belief is he was gifted the current group of players and the two cups, he deserves big credit for Hagel, and he threaded the needle this TDL with picking up Duclair. That's my opinion, this isn't Jay Feaster, he's actually capable of being ingenuitive.

He also deserves a transition period, we were clearly all in, the step back was necessary to consolidate the organization.

The big question is if he can rebuild the talent levels now. If the plan is to rest on his laurels and enter every season as a fringe playoff team with an aging roster and limited expectations, instead of exploring ways to find cheaper/better talent, he's not doing a great job. Let's see what happens this offseason

Obviously that's not the plan but no GM in cap era has ever found a way around this. It's inevitable at this point, you have to pay the players who contributed to those wins and then fill out the rest of the rosters on low cap, low quality players.

The pattern seems to be that if you stick with that same aging core you go down with the ship, yeah sure they know how to win but they're also less effective players now then when they were winning, while taking up more capspace and therefore getting less help. Doing something innovative is knowing when to ditch "core members" and re-tool with what works before your window completely shuts, every other team tries to re-find the magic in supporting cast while their "core" is actually performing worse every season.

 

[Stammertime91]

Obviously that's not the plan but no GM in cap era has ever found a way around this. It's inevitable at this point, you have to pay the players who contributed to those wins and then fill out the rest of the rosters on low cap, low quality players.

The pattern seems to be that if you stick with that same aging core you go down with the ship, yeah sure they know how to win but they're also less effective players now then when they were winning, while taking up more capspace and therefore getting less help. Doing something innovative is knowing when to ditch "core members" and re-tool with what works before your window completely shuts, every other team tries to re-find the magic in supporting cast while their "core" is actually performing worse every season.

I think Vegas' cold blooded mentality is showing you can do things differently. Imagine we moved Stamkos Two years ago and kept McDonagh, maybe brought in a 20-25 goal winger. In hindsight, that probably would've been a decent move but it's sport entertainment as well. Moving on from core players causes a lot of uproar and disinterest. Not to mention how players would feel about management or any sort of loyalty having signed a contract.

I mentioned what you said about GMs not knowing how to handle this tandem of success and rolling over a new guard a couple months ago. It's true. We probably hung onto Stamkos and Hedman too long under a "new model" where we could split their salary into two quality players but no GM off the back of b2b cups is going to move a Conn Smythe/Norris defenseman and the face of their franchise. We would have assets and maybe a more balanced team now, but people would've lynched JBB.

I'm somewhere between how we've handled this and how Vegas is doing things. It's just tough to look at players that have meant so much to this franchise like 91 and 77 and say, see ya later, we want to go a different route.

Also, if we did that to either one after the Colorado series let's say, I could have seen Kucherov requesting a trade. There's obviously a difference between a newer franchise in Vegas churning through players like Tinder dates, but for us, these guys have spent a long time together through ups and downs. I could see JBB or whoever the GM is being more reliant upon depth than a "core" after Stamkos and Hedman retire. Cirelli, Sergachev, and Cernak got deals signifying importance, but I don't see them as core pieces. Maybe Sergachev.

 

[Rschmitz]

I agree with some of this but that Jeannot trade really spoils most of it. It was really bad dude, like unbelievably bad.

And I know about the cap restrictions but man, it sure would be nice to still have McDonagh.

I am the first person to hate on the Jeannot deal, this is why I said he’s been struggling to repair this roster without assets. He knows how to throw 1st round picks around to fix a problem, but not roster build from scratch.

 

[flying squirrel]

<<< Below from other thread that's closed, this seems to be GM talk anyways >>>
Not going to talk of blowing team up, trading players, etc. either. Will wait until players/coaches are done battling for Lightning, themselves, and us fans in playoffs. But will say this now, BriseBois/Lightning have been dealt a tough hand. From having to deal with flattest cap any "Cup" winners have ever dealt with during cap era. GM is fair game right now, so.....

Dominant NHL teams, Cap growth from 1st "Cup" >> 2 yrs after last "Cup" won.

• Chicago 2010-2017 >> 75,000,000 - 56,000,000 = 21 mil growth to keep (7yrs).
• Pittsburgh 2009-2019 >> 79,000,000 - 56,000,00 = 23 mil growth to keep (10yrs).
• Lightning 2015-2024 >> 72,000,00 - 69,000,00 = 14 mil growth to keep (9yrs).

BriseBois/Lightning cap growth while trying to 3-peat.

• Lightning 2020-2023 >> 82,000,000 - 81,000,000 = 1 mil growth to keep (3yrs).
• Lightning 2019-2024 >> 83,000,000 - 79,000,000 = 4 mil growth to keep (5yrs).

Numbers above are rounded to million, and data is not 100% perfect, but very close to numbers. The above paints picture needed: we can see that during Lightning's most dominate run ever, they had to deal with scraps trying to keep it all together. Those comparing Lightning situation to either Hawks or Pens are comparing apples -vs- bananas. Especially when one considers players salary's are more per year now = Cause and Effect >>> impact. Players made less when Hawks and Pens were doing deep playoffs runs, and they both had much more, to hold that all together There's lots to weigh here and not so cut & dry as some fans think this is. Sure there's other angles & reasoning I'm not seeing myself...

Lightning and GM's have dealt with smallest scraps any NHL powerhouse has ever dealt with during cap era. Especially at end of that awesome run! BriseBois has made some great production -vs- cost moves at beginning, and during 3-peat attempt. But some moves that weren't best cost -vs- production. But I doubt we're even this competitive without those moves made. Plus, I think trade -vs- cost GM paid for some players didn't help those players at all. I mean at all!!!! That was not smart by GM, but at same time... Wondering how many Lightning fans could've taken that.... "Cap-crap chicken sandwich" and turned into a decent "Cap chicken soup". It's never easy making chicken crap into chicken soup! GM/Lightning did OK considering Lightning didn't have much ingredients, or much left in cupboard to cook with. GM has done very well at times and other times not so well. I'll leave rest of this for off-season talk after we have all of playoffs to consider. Trust me, it's not all is sunny times with GM...

There's plenty of mistakes, and great moves by this GM: it's the possibility of pride, with the want this to be..."His Team" team, treatment of existing players since McD, and other things that bother me more. Mistakes and misses happen when bargain-shopping for right contracts to fill cap-quickened roster exodus. Especially considering other NHL teams aren't going to bend to every Lightning's whim either. The first trades going for "Cups" and 3-peat(Paul & Hagel) were fine and understandable. But other trades stink of think nothing but long-term for this team, no concerns with making existing players work while making this "His Lightning Team". Stinks of new GM wanting to get out from under Yzerman's "Team built" shadow. Who knows, but just seems that way sometimes.

Go Lightning !!!!

 

[Hockeyville USA]

<<< Below from other thread that's closed, this seems to be GM talk anyways >>>
Not going to talk of blowing team up, trading players, etc. either. Will wait until players/coaches are done battling for Lightning, themselves, and us fans in playoffs. But will say this now, BriseBois/Lightning have been dealt a tough hand. From having to deal with flattest cap any "Cup" winners have ever dealt with during cap era. GM is fair game right now, so.....

Dominant NHL teams, Cap growth from 1st "Cup" >> 2 yrs after last "Cup" won.

• Chicago 2010-2017 >> 75,000,000 - 56,000,000 = 21 mil growth to keep (7yrs).
• Pittsburgh 2009-2019 >> 79,000,000 - 56,000,00 = 23 mil growth to keep (10yrs).
• Lightning 2015-2024 >> 32,000,00 - 69,000,00 = 14 mil growth to keep (9yrs).

BriseBois/Lightning cap growth while trying to 3-peat.

• Lightning 2020-2023 >> 82,000,000 - 81,000,000 = 1 mil growth to keep (3yrs).
• Lightning 2019-2024 >> 83,000,000 - 79,000,000 = 4 mil growth to keep (5yrs).

Numbers above are rounded to million, and data is not 100% perfect, but very close to numbers. The above paints picture needed: we can see that during Lightning's most dominate run ever, they had to deal with scraps trying to keep it all together. Those comparing Lightning situation to either Hawks or Pens are comparing apples -vs- bananas. Especially when one considers players salary's are more per year now = Cause and Effect >>> impact. Players made less when Hawks and Pens were doing deep playoffs runs, and they both had much more, to hold that all together There's lots to weigh here and not so cut & dry as some fans think this is. Sure there's other angles & reasoning I'm not seeing myself...

Lightning and GM's have dealt with smallest scraps any NHL powerhouse has ever dealt with during cap era. Especially at end of that awesome run! BriseBois has made some great production -vs- cost moves at beginning, and during 3-peat attempt. But some moves that weren't best cost -vs- production. But I doubt we're even this competitive without those moves made. Plus, I think trade -vs- cost GM paid for some players didn't help those players at all. I mean at all!!!! That was not smart by GM, but at same time... Wondering how many Lightning fans could've taken that.... "Cap-crap chicken sandwich" and turned into a decent "Cap chicken soup". It's never easy making chicken crap into chicken soup! GM/Lightning did OK considering Lightning didn't have much ingredients, or much left in cupboard to cook with. GM has done very well at times and other times not so well. I'll leave rest of this for off-season talk after we have all of playoffs to consider. Trust me, it's not all is sunny times with GM...

There's plenty of mistakes, and great moves by this GM: it's the possibility of pride, with the want this to be..."His Team" team, treatment of existing players since McD, and other things that bother me more. Mistakes and misses happen when bargain-shopping for right contracts to fill cap-quickened roster exodus. Especially considering other NHL teams aren't going to bend to every Lightning's whim either. The first trades going for "Cups" and 3-peat(Paul & Hagel) were fine and understandable. But other trades stink of think nothing but long-term for this team, no concerns with making existing players work while making this "His Lightning Team". Stinks of new GM wanting to get out from under Yzerman's "Team built" shadow. Who knows, but just seems that way sometimes.

Go Lightning !!!!

Lightning got stuck in between trying to get younger and still going all in for a Cup. As we've seen in other sports (ex: Golden State Warriors), it's incredibly difficult to thread that needle/dilemma.

Plus as you said, they've gotten f***ed by a flat cap. Doesn't mean BriseBois has made some bad moves in UFA and trades.

 

[LTIR Trickery]

You sure? He wasn't even extended a qualifying offer from us, two days later he signed with Florida.

I think you're confusing him for JMass, who did leave for an expanded role despite us offering him the same deal.

Florida stole two hidden gems from under our noses.

I'm sure. They had every intention of signing him, because who doesn't want depth, but he wanted more than 12 minutes a game and a chance to show he can score at the NHL level.

 

[Rschmitz]

I'm sure. They had every intention of signing him, because who doesn't want depth, but he wanted more than 12 minutes a game and a chance to show he can score at the NHL level.

This doesn't compute. If they had every intention of signing him, why not qualify his league minimum salary and guarantee retention? He was an RFA. If he goes to arbitration and wins, you can just let him walk if it's too much. If another team like Florida starts sniffing, they'd have to give us picks.

 

[LightningStrikes]

This doesn't compute. If they had every intention of signing him, why not qualify his league minimum salary and guarantee retention, he was an RFA. If he goes to arbitration and wins, you can just let him walk if it's too much. If another team like Florida starts sniffing, they'd have to give us picks.

Probably wanted to do what’s best for the player.

 

[Rschmitz]

Probably wanted to do what’s best for the player.

Why offer him a contract then?

 

[LightningStrikes]

Why offer him a contract then?

Ha! Hell if I know.

They knew there wasn’t a bigger role for him with the team (short term) at the time. We had like two legit 2nd lines without CV. But then they could’ve traded him. Seems like bad asset management from the outside but I don’t have the details.

 

[Rschmitz]

Ha! Hell if I know.

They knew there wasn’t a bigger role for him with the team (short term) at the time. We had like two legit 2nd lines without CV. But then they could’ve traded him. Seems like bad asset management from the outside but I don’t have the details.

My only point is that we didn't offer him a contract, because if we were going to we would have qualified him for league minimum. What I remember is what you said, he wasn't going to get a huge role here so we didn't qualify him and let him go.

 

[Hockeyville USA]

Ha! Hell if I know.

They knew there wasn’t a bigger role for him with the team (short term) at the time. We had like two legit 2nd lines without CV. But then they could’ve traded him. Seems like bad asset management from the outside but I don’t have the details.

They overvalued Stephens, Volkov, and to a lesser extent, Barre Boulet. While Verhaeghe was technically ahead of Joseph on the depth chart, Joseph was faster, younger and had more NHL experience.

They weren't willing to make the New England Patriots glory years cut throat style trade to cut bait with "their guys" in Stephens and Volkov. Just sucks they didn't even bother to qualify or attempt to trade Verhaeghe out of conference.

 

[The Macho King]

I mean... I'm really wondering what y'all expect. We're without our second best defensemen after losing important depth talent every offseason. The Jeannot deal was bad - no way around that. Forget the price for the player - those were picks we could have used on more impactful trades.

But it's hard to get pissed with that deal when JBB has "overpaid" three other times for players and they've each worked out to varying degrees (Hagel, Coleman, Goodrow). If Jeannot was a 15g, 35 point guy with his physicality it would feel fine. Instead he's like an 8-10 goal 20 point guy so that sucks. But the difference is in the margins there.

But shit - we weren't going to be the late 70s Habs. The question is if this core can stay good long enough to retool the roster around them a bit. We've already got some of the supporting pieces in Hagel and Paul - the question is if we can get a bit more depth (mainly on D).