2023-2024 Blues Multi-Purpose Thread

[joe galiba]

And when it comes to Kyrou, I don't really care about his defensive play that much. I don't want him to completely disengage from it, but I'm not worried if he never makes much more improvement. I think he's fine to be the offensive winger that isn't on the line getting tough matchups.

The part that I'm more worried about with him, his scoring consistency. In back to back seasons, he's had very rough starts, that can't be a trend, he has to be someone that can start a season strong. Then, from the night Bannister took over to 2/22, he had 14 goals and 28 points in 28 games, with a +5 rating. He had a 15.7% shooting %, so nothing was wildly unsustainable there. That's the player we are paying him to be. His next 9 games had 1 goal, 3 points, and a -8.

It's fine to be streaky, but the extreme streaks that players like Kyrou and Schenn seem to have these past 2 seasons can't happen. And really good players will have some horrific streaks like that in their career, so it's not unique or anything, but that's the part that I'm more worried about when it comes to Kyrou, not really his defense. We are paying him for the production during his hot streaks, so he either needs to do that more consistently or his hot streaks have to be way hotter, so his season totals match up with what he's being paid.

I think the streakiness is a bit overblown, he is getting paid to be a very good scorer and those types of players are streaky, if he was getting paid like a elite scorer that would be different, as the elite guys (McDavid, MacKinnon, Crosby, Matthews Ovechkin, etc...) are not streaky

 

[bleedblue1223]

I think the streakiness is a bit overblown, he is getting paid to be a very good scorer and those types of players are streaky, if he was getting paid like a elite scorer that would be different, as the elite guys (McDavid, MacKinnon, Crosby, Matthews Ovechkin, etc...) are not streaky

Streaks are fine if end of year production is high enough. Right now, his peaks aren't high enough to overcome his valleys IMO. At least for this season specifically.

 

[Brian39]

I think that the Thomas contract has a very real chance to be a top 10 contract in the league for about 5 years. Max term RFA center contracts have quickly crept up in AAV since we signed him.

Thomas, Norris, and Stutzle all signed in the $7.95M-$8.35M range on deals that were viewed as teams purchasing some potential in a flat cap. Then MacKinnon re-set the market by (rightfully) demanding a contract bigger than the one McDavid had signed 5 years earlier.

Following the MacKinnon signing, the AAVs really crept up. Between then and the opening of free agency in 2023, Barzal, Larkin, Horvat, Dubois, and Hintz all signed 8 years deals with AAVs in the $8.45M-$9.15M range. After the opening of free agency last summer, Aho signed an 8 year deal at $9.75M and Pettersson just signed one at $11.6M.

I think the going rate for a young 1C is already up to $9M+ AAV and we are still in year 1 of the Thomas deal. With the cap about to go up $4M, I think we are quickly approaching the point where the going rate for a young 1C is $10M+ on a max term deal. I really believe that it would take a $10M x 8 year deal to extend Thomas if he were a pending RFA this summer (with arbitration rights and just 1 year from UFA status). If not that deal, then something very close to it.

The value should only keep getting better, but it is already very good.

 

[Xerloris]

I think the streakiness is a bit overblown, he is getting paid to be a very good scorer and those types of players are streaky, if he was getting paid like a elite scorer that would be different, as the elite guys (McDavid, MacKinnon, Crosby, Matthews Ovechkin, etc...) are not streaky

MacKinnons 30 something consecutive games with a point seems kind of streaky to me.

 

[Brockon]

MacKinnons 30 something consecutive games with a point seems kind of streaky to me.

Almost like it was too good to be true, right?

Spoiler alert... It is. He's only on an 11 game point streak right now, having been held pointless for 3 consecutive games in early February - it's in the screenshot below, as is the link if you want to verify it.

MacKinnon's point streak you're alluding to is qualified - it's a home game point streak. Still insane, but not climbing the NHL records yet. 30 some consecutive games would have him registering the 5th longest point streak in league history.

Nathan MacKinnon 2024-25 Stats per Game - NHL - ESPN

The 2024-25 NHL season stats per game for Nathan MacKinnon of the Colorado Avalanche on ESPN. Includes full stats, per opponent, for regular and postseason.

www.espn.com

Edit : grammar, Italicized... Initial post reads e consecutive games. I guess I didnt hold my phone key down long enough to get the number in.

 

[Brockon]

... You really get hung up on the raw totals and can't see the forest for the trees. I haven't banged on this drum for a while, so thank you for providing a nice segue to re-iterate and bring up cap hit percentage and its relevance when comparing contracts and wincing at cap hit numbers out of context.

I've pieced together a little guessing game for you in paint, using capfriendly data. I'll share the answers when you're done.

There are 4 cup winners, and 3 players with no cup in the following image giving points, gp and +/- from sometime in the 2010-present season, listing the players cap hit %.
I want you to give me your guess at their cap hit AAV - based on how you value their performance, then i'll share identities, AAV and contract years.

View attachment 834672

@TheDizee you've been online several times since I put this up, and I'm still waiting for your response.

I'll reiterate - I don't want the players names. I want your opinion on the value of their cap hit vs the production they bring.

I'm well aware that because it covers 2010-22 contracts, those $ values aren't going to line up in an apples to apples comparison - which is the whole point I'm trying to drive home to you. Raw cap hits aren't what they used to be, your perception of what's worth 8m AAV needs to change, because contracts have evolved significantly over the past decade.

 

[Mike Liut]

I’m really hoping Bolduc, Dean and Snuggs are on the team next year. I’m ready for the youth movement. Add them to Thomas, Kyrou and Neighbors and soon to be Dvorsky, and we could be pretty legit in the next couple years.

 

[Bye Bye Blueston]

Not really a surprise, but Army is apparently going to be GM of Team Canada for 26 Olympics. So apparently he remains highly regarded by those inside the game, who apparently know much less about hockey than some of our posters here who want him fired.

 

[Majorityof1]

Not really a surprise, but Army is apparently going to be GM of Team Canada for 26 Olympics. So apparently he remains highly regarded by those inside the game, who apparently know much less about hockey than some of our posters here who want him fired.

Give me a break. Great hockey minds get fired for good reason. And running an Olympic team for Canada is a lot different than GMing a NHL club. You can find a real-life Tarzan who has been living in the jungle raised by apes and has had no human contact, teach them a few words in English and then give them the reigns of Team Canada. They'd still medal.

 

[Drubilly]

Give me a break. Great hockey minds get fired for good reason. And running an Olympic team for Canada is a lot different than GMing a NHL club. You can find a real-life Tarzan who has been living in the jungle raised by apes and has had no human contact, teach them a few words in English and then give them the reigns of Team Canada. They'd still medal.

I know right?!? Army still has enough time to kick Petro off the team.

 

[Ted Hoffman]

Not really a surprise, but Army is apparently going to be GM of Team Canada for 26 Olympics. So apparently he remains highly regarded by those inside the game, who apparently know much less about hockey than some of our posters here who want him fired.

Awesome for him. This proves he's a genius in the same way someone I once worked with was a great chief actuary because kept getting jobs as a chief actuary and companies did "really well" when he was there, ignoring that their performance was largely the same with or without him, there was no measurable improvement with him, and on at least one occasion he was "offered the chance to retire early for all his hard work" [aka "seek employment elsewhere within a specified amount of time without getting fired and having an action reported for professional discipline"].

I hope he remembers to bring his actuary table to meetings and it gives him all the answers he needs.

 

[Reality Czech]

I know right?!? Army still has enough time to kick Petro off the team.

I doubt 36 year old Petro will make Team Canada in 2 years. He's already falling off hard.

 

[Drubilly]

I doubt 36 year old Petro will make Team Canada in 2 years. He's already falling off hard.

 

[Brian39]

I’m really hoping Bolduc, Dean and Snuggs are on the team next year. I’m ready for the youth movement. Add them to Thomas, Kyrou and Neighbors and soon to be Dvorsky, and we could be pretty legit in the next couple years.

I'm ready for the youth movement and I'm hoping that those 3 are ready to play in the NHL next year. As much as I'm ready to start seeing the fruits of our drafting/developing/acquiring, I don't want them up in the NHL if they aren't ready for the role that they will be playing.

I'm pleasantly encouraged by Bolduc so far, but the guy I see right now isn't a player I want here full time. He can absolutely take that step by training camp and I hope he does. But if he comes to camp the exact same player as he is right now, then I'd prefer to send him back to the AHL to start the year.

I have my doubts about Dean's from my brief Springfield viewings and his stat line, but I hope he gets some NHL games down the stretch. I think Snuggy's play with the puck on his stick is NHL-ready, but I always have a hard time telling just how well the rest of an NCAA's game will quickly translate to the NHL.

I hope that all 3 take another step in the summer and come to camp looking like they deserve to make an NHL roster. Next season is all about developing the next wave of players and it would be nice if the older players in that wave could do it at the NHL level.

But I wouldn't view it as the end of the world if 1-2 of them need more development outside the NHL. I think trying to develop multiple non-NHL-ready prospects while also continuing to develop Neighbours and an NHL-ready-prospect opens you up to harming the development of all of them.

 

[Brian39]

Not really a surprise, but Army is apparently going to be GM of Team Canada for 26 Olympics. So apparently he remains highly regarded by those inside the game, who apparently know much less about hockey than some of our posters here who want him fired.

Give me a break. Great hockey minds get fired for good reason. And running an Olympic team for Canada is a lot different than GMing a NHL club. You can find a real-life Tarzan who has been living in the jungle raised by apes and has had no human contact, teach them a few words in English and then give them the reigns of Team Canada. They'd still medal.

I think the answer is in the middle of these. Being named GM of Canada isn't decisive proof that he is good at his job, but it is also not irrelevant to that analysis.

Reputation among within the industry is a pretty damn important quality in an industry where you are constantly negotiating with those peers. Reputation within the industry is an important quality for a leadership position where subordinates often follow a boss to a new organization. GMs and Presidents of Hockey Operations are by their nature positions where your connections and relationships are exceedingly important.

It's not everything, but it is tangibly important. This is an industry where firing a GM generally causes multiple other important people to leave the organization.

 

[Bye Bye Blueston]

I'm ready for the youth movement and I'm hoping that those 3 are ready to play in the NHL next year. As much as I'm ready to start seeing the fruits of our drafting/developing/acquiring, I don't want them up in the NHL if they aren't ready for the role that they will be playing.

I'm pleasantly encouraged by Bolduc so far, but the guy I see right now isn't a player I want here full time. He can absolutely take that step by training camp and I hope he does. But if he comes to camp the exact same player as he is right now, then I'd prefer to send him back to the AHL to start the year.

I have my doubts about Dean's from my brief Springfield viewings and his stat line, but I hope he gets some NHL games down the stretch. I think Snuggy's play with the puck on his stick is NHL-ready, but I always have a hard time telling just how well the rest of an NCAA's game will quickly translate to the NHL.

I hope that all 3 take another step in the summer and come to camp looking like they deserve to make an NHL roster. Next season is all about developing the next wave of players and it would be nice if the older players in that wave could do it at the NHL level.

But I wouldn't view it as the end of the world if 1-2 of them need more development outside the NHL. I think trying to develop multiple non-NHL-ready prospects while also continuing to develop Neighbours and an NHL-ready-prospect opens you up to harming the development of all of them.

Yes. And I think it’s important for us to remember that Bolduc and Dean are a year behind neighbours. Last year he was marginal nhl player, like bolduc is now. Not completely out of place but not good and not ready to be. This year he is legit. I think it’s reasonable to hope (expect?) Bolduc to make similar progress. Dean seems a bit behind him, but getting nhl experience now can be helpful.

This team’s biggest need for the short term is better 2C. Other than Thomas we don’t have anyone good enough to drive possession and help get kids pucks in position to succeed. Schenn needs to be winger going forward and Hayes is just a guy. This to me is bigger need than upgrading d. Long term we need to add at least 1 if not more top 4 d beyond what we have in system, but 2C is more immediate need both in terms of improving our team and developing our kids.

 

[bleedblue1223]

I agree. If I'm in a discussion on here with someone that wants Army fired, I'd find arguing that he's the GM of Canada, so therefore he's a top GM and we shouldn't fire him to be pretty weak, but at the same time, it's also not nothing. They wouldn't put someone in charge that makes poor decisions. This is a job that I imagine many top people want and Army has had the role many times in the past. At a minimum I think it does indicate that through the league or Hockey Canada, Army is viewed as a top tier GM on the same level as guys like Nill, Yzerman, Sweeney, McCrimmon, etc.

And as a fan of a team, it's good when your management is involved in these things. It was discussed in some Athletic articles, but the process helps give you insight on what other GMs think of your players and other players around the league, so it's just more information for Army to take back to the Blues.

 

[Bye Bye Blueston]

I agree. If I'm in a discussion on here with someone that wants Army fired, I'd find arguing that he's the GM of Canada, so therefore he's a top GM and we shouldn't fire him to be pretty weak, but at the same time, it's also not nothing. They wouldn't put someone in charge that makes poor decisions. This is a job that I imagine many top people want and Army has had the role many times in the past. At a minimum I think it does indicate that through the league or Hockey Canada, Army is viewed as a top tier GM on the same level as guys like Nill, Yzerman, Sweeney, McCrimmon, etc.

And as a fan of a team, it's good when your management is involved in these things. It was discussed in some Athletic articles, but the process helps give you insight on what other GMs think of your players and other players around the league, so it's just more information for Army to take back to the Blues.

I’m sorry, but advocating to fire army at this point is silly. If someone is doing that, it shows they aren’t to be taken seriously. No GM is perfect. Army has made mistakes, big ones even, but his track record speaks for itself. Not just Cup, but decade of sustained top level play as he turned over much of core of team. And his pivoted to rebuilding roster and accumulating assets to do so has positioned us well for future, yet folks still complain bc they want us to burn it down so we can be next Sabres…

 

[Majorityof1]

I’m sorry, but advocating to fire army at this point is silly. If someone is doing that, it shows they aren’t to be taken seriously. No GM is perfect. Army has made mistakes, big ones even, but his track record speaks for itself. Not just Cup, but decade of sustained top level play as he turned over much of core of team. And his pivoted to rebuilding roster and accumulating assets to do so has positioned us well for future, yet folks still complain bc they want us to burn it down so we can be next Sabres…

I'm not advocating to fire Armstrong but saying it's out of the question is silly. Sports are a what have you done for me lately industry. Who cares what he did 2009-2019? He's utterly shit the bed since then. He's made major mistakes that gave led to us being in an untenable situation.

The league evolves. If he can't keep up with that, or if his skill set is better suited to the circumstances the team faced before as opposed to now, it would be silly to outright deny a conversation around moving on. Gms rarely last a decade. GMs with as much or more success than Army get fired. It is not out if the realm of possibility he should be too. I think it's premature. But we should consider it. He had success in Dallas but ge also left them in a decade long hole.

 

[Snubbed4Vezina]

I wonder if any of the fire Armstrong cult believes the Blackhawks dynasty would exist if the 2010-11 season (the first season after they won their first Cup under Quenneville) was disrupted by a global pandemic and they were handed a flat salary cap for the three seasons that followed.

I find it hard to believe they would have been able to have the level of success they did in fielding a Championship team.

 

[Majorityof1]

I wonder if any of the fire Armstrong cult believes the Blackhawks dynasty would exist if the 2010-11 season (the first season after they won their first Cup under Quenneville) was disrupted by a global pandemic and they were handed a flat salary cap for the three seasons that followed.

I find it hard to believe they would have been able to have the level of success they did in fielding a Championship team.

Boston was the team we barely beat in the finals. Look at where they are and where we are. Same pandemic, same flat cap. Everyone had to deal with that. The league didn't come in and say, we need to curtail spending, so St. Louis, you get a flat cap but Boston you can spend more

 

[Frenzy31]

Boston was the team we barely beat in the finals. Look at where they are and where we are. Same pandemic, same flat cap. Everyone had to deal with that. The league didn't come in and say, we need to curtail spending, so St. Louis, you get a flat cap but Boston you can spend more

They bottomed out in 2015 and 16. They had 6 picks in top 52 in 2015. In 2016 they had 2 1st rounders. Frankly they shit the bed in 2015. They had Berg, Kreijki, March, Pasta, Chara, ext. on their roster.

Last year we closed our window in a re-whatever. And I view us kind of where Boston was in 2015. I think we did a better job with our 1st rounders, but.... And I we are a D away from being where they are now.

They had a magical run last year that ended early and now they are not a threatening as other teams in the East.

 

[Snubbed4Vezina]

They bottomed out in 2015 and 16. They had 6 picks in top 52 in 2015. In 2016 they had 2 1st rounders. Frankly they shit the bed in 2015. They had Berg, Kreijki, March, Pasta, Chara, ext. on their roster.

Last year we closed our window in a re-whatever. And I view us kind of where Boston was in 2015. I think we did a better job with our 1st rounders, but.... And I we are a D away from being where they are now.

They had a magical run last year that ended early and now they are not a threatening as other teams in the East.

The Bruins were also in a unique situation because they had an elite center willing to play for a small fraction of what he was worth during the flat cap years. Krejci essentially did the same.

At the end of the day, teams that were in the early stages of their windows with their current cores had a much easier time handling a flat cap, rather than a team like the Blues that was in win-now mode and had to face the harsh reality that everything they had planned to do to keep the window as open as long as possible was now impossible.

 

[BlueDream]

I wonder if any of the fire Armstrong cult believes the Blackhawks dynasty would exist if the 2010-11 season (the first season after they won their first Cup under Quenneville) was disrupted by a global pandemic and they were handed a flat salary cap for the three seasons that followed.

I find it hard to believe they would have been able to have the level of success they did in fielding a Championship team.

I love this flat cap excuse.

Go look at how many players the Blackhawks lost after each of their Cup wins. They were constantly losing depth due to the Cap.

But you know the difference between them and us? The Blackhawks made sure they kept the right guys. They knew their elite players deserved the money, and kept their core. Only like 4 players were with them through that entire dynasty.

So yeah, this is a pretty terrible comparison and a desperate attempt to defend Armstrong.

 

[Snubbed4Vezina]

I love this flat cap excuse.

Go look at how many players the Blackhawks lost after each of their Cup wins. They were constantly losing depth due to the Cap.

But you know the difference between them and us? The Blackhawks made sure they kept the right guys. They knew their elite players deserved the money, and kept their core. Only like 4 players were with them through that entire dynasty.

So yeah, this is a pretty terrible comparison and a desperate attempt to defend Armstrong.

The flat cap isn't an excuse, it's a reality. The Blackhawks still had a growing cap to address their issues. Those contract extensions handed out to Kane, Toews, Keith, Seabrook, Crawford, etc. in a flat cap NHL would've made their success impossible.

Frankly, if someone can't even relent on how a flat cap posed a significant obstacle in keeping a championship team together, that tells me all I need to know someone's ability to look beyond emotion when analyzing the situation.