2023-2024 Blues Multi-Purpose Thread

[Xerloris]

This is where he ranks against the rest of the team (the 23 players [forwards and defenseman] who has played more than 100 minutes) per NaturalStatTrick He is in the top 5 the team in all but 10 of the 63 areas

	All Strengths	5v5	Even Strength
CF/60	1	3	3
CA/60	2	4	4
CA%	1	3	3
FF/60	1	3	3
FA/60	2	5	4
FF%	1	2	2
SF/60	1	3	3
SA/60	2	5	5
SF%	1	3	3
GF/60	4	3	4
GA/60	15 (RT is 19, Buch is 18)	14 (RT is 3, Buch is 8)	21 (Buch is 15, RT is 12)
GF%	4	5	9
xGF/60	3	3	4
xGA/60	8 (Buch is 15, RT is 18)	3 (Buch is 6, RT is 10)	18 (RT is 20, Buch is 19)
xGF%	1	3	6
SCF/60	2	3	3
SCA/60	1	7	7
SCF	1	3	3
HDCF/60	2	6	4
HDCA/60	1	4	3
HDCF%	1	3	2

I would definitely not be calling him elite. But he is one of the best defensive forwards we have this season (Tho that bar isn't a very tall one to climb). He needs to be better no doubt, but, he is making strides in the correct direction defensively.

I knew he was doing better defensively but that is a rather massive leap from where he was last year. That's pretty impressive. Almost like he's worked hard and he cares. Weird.

 

[bleedblue1223]

He's "good" defensively in the sense that someone like Karlsson is or other offensively sheltered players are. He's put in the offensive zone more than others and because he's a good possession player, he tends to stay in the offensive zone.

That's the issue I have with some advanced Stat interpretations, it mixes defensive ability with possession ability.

 

[ScratchCatFever]

Well, one thing I learned at the Metalcore Concert I went to tonight. Country Roads is not just a Blues hockey thing.

Who all did you see?

 

[Celtic Note]

He's "good" defensively in the sense that someone like Karlsson is or other offensively sheltered players are. He's put in the offensive zone more than others and because he's a good possession player, he tends to stay in the offensive zone.

That's the issue I have with some advanced Stat interpretations, it mixes defensive ability with possession ability.

The other team cannot score if you have the puck (barring an own goal…cough Bergevin).

 

[bleedblue1223]

Yeah, and as we can see now with poor defensive players and possession players, we need improvements in both areas.

 

[Linkens Mastery]

Who all did you see?

Beartooth, The Plot in You, Invent Animate, and sleep Theory. Amazing concert.... tho back to the Blues.

 

[Linkens Mastery]

From the eye test with Kyrou, he has definitely taken good steps defensively. He's shown good defensive stick work and has been using his speed to close gaps and has been rewarded for it quite a bit and had been more aggressive. He still has issues with consistency and his floating, but most players in his style of play have those exact same issues.

As the cap increases and other players start getting paid more and more his contract is not going to look nearly as disastrous as many people here proclaim it to be.

 

[bleedblue1223]

Yep, we will be returning to the days where long-term deals either no longer are achors or become bargains. Thomas in a couple seasons will probably be a huge value deal.

 

[Bobby Orrtuzzo]

I knew he was doing better defensively but that is a rather massive leap from where he was last year. That's pretty impressive. Almost like he's worked hard and he cares. Weird.

Dizee in shambles

Beartooth, The Plot in You, Invent Animate, and sleep Theory. Amazing concert.... tho back to the Blues.

I always knew I liked you

 

[TheDizee]

From the eye test with Kyrou, he has definitely taken good steps defensively. He's shown good defensive stick work and has been using his speed to close gaps and has been rewarded for it quite a bit and had been more aggressive. He still has issues with consistency and his floating, but most players in his style of play have those exact same issues.

As the cap increases and other players start getting paid more and more his contract is not going to look nearly as disastrous as many people here proclaim it to be.

saving this post for future reference

8 million dollars for a 50-60 point player, LOL.

 

[BadgersandBlues]

He's "good" defensively in the sense that someone like Karlsson is or other offensively sheltered players are. He's put in the offensive zone more than others and because he's a good possession player, he tends to stay in the offensive zone.

That's the issue I have with some advanced Stat interpretations, it mixes defensive ability with possession ability.

I haven't dug into the numbers, but he's been on Thomas' wing basically the last 40+ games and they line up against the top lines of the other team pretty frequently. Maybe he misses a shift here or there at the end of a game when we're protecting a lead, but for the most part I don't think we shelter him much. Offensive zone faceoffs, yes. But QoC no.

 

[Snubbed4Vezina]

There's nothing Kyrou can do to save his reputation from a loud segment of fans in this fanbase. He could maintain this level of defense, see his shooting pct. normalize, and become a PPG or near-PPG player in his age 26 season, and you'd still have certain people who will claim the eye test tells them he's lazy, one-dimensional, and not worth his contract. Their minds have been made up, no matter where his career trajectory takes him. There's no sense in wasting time engaging with those types of people.

It's like a friend of mine who would never stop talking about how the Cardinals should fire Tony LaRussa every season, even after winning two World Series. We don't have many meaningful conversations about baseball.

 

[Linkens Mastery]

There's nothing Kyrou can do to save his reputation from a loud segment of fans in this fanbase. He could maintain this level of defense, see his shooting pct. normalize, and watch him become a PPG or near-PPG player in his age 26 season, and you'd still have certain people who will claim the eye test tells them he's lazy, one-dimensional, and not worth his contract. Their minds have been made up, no wonder where his career trajectory takes him. There's no sense in wasting time engaging with those types of people.

It's like a friend of mine who would never stop talking about how the Cardinals should fire Tony LaRussa every season, even after winning two World Series. We don't have many meaningful conversations about baseball.

The only way some Blues fans would be Happy with Kyrou is if he gets traded and he sucks on the new team. We keep him he plays well, they say he needs to be better. We keep him he sucks, he's terrible and a cancer. We trade him he plays well, why in the hell didn't he do that for us.

 

[Snubbed4Vezina]

The only way some Blues fans would be Happy with Kyrou is if he gets traded and he sucks on the new team. We keep him he plays well, they say he needs to be better. We keep him he sucks, he's terrible and a cancer. We trade him he plays well, why in the hell didn't he do that for us.

I don't think they'd be happy with that either. 'What a waste of time and money to keep him on the team as long as we did.'

 

[Brockon]

saving this post for future reference

8 million dollars for a 50-60 point player, LOL.

... You really get hung up on the raw totals and can't see the forest for the trees. I haven't banged on this drum for a while, so thank you for providing a nice segue to re-iterate and bring up cap hit percentage and its relevance when comparing contracts and wincing at cap hit numbers out of context.

I've pieced together a little guessing game for you in paint, using capfriendly data. I'll share the answers when you're done.

There are 4 cup winners, and 3 players with no cup in the following image giving points, gp and +/- from sometime in the 2010-present season, listing the players cap hit %.
I want you to give me your guess at their cap hit AAV - based on how you value their performance, then i'll share identities, AAV and contract years.

 

[oPlaiD]

Maybe they'll change their tune when we get Jorconn Smyrou in six years. #believe

Okay I don't have that much koolaid, but the Kyrou hate really is insane. It's just ignoring all context about contract value and cap hits through the league.

 

[Linkens Mastery]

... You really get hung up on the raw totals and can't see the forest for the trees. I haven't banged on this drum for a while, so thank you for providing a nice segue to re-iterate and bring up cap hit percentage and its relevance when comparing contracts and wincing at cap hit numbers out of context.

I've pieced together a little guessing game for you in paint, using capfriendly data. I'll share the answers when you're done.

There are 4 cup winners, and 3 players with no cup in the following image giving points, gp and +/- from sometime in the 2010-present season, listing the players cap hit %.
I want you to give me your guess at their cap hit AAV - based on how you value their performance, then i'll share identities, AAV and contract years.

View attachment 834672

I forgot how bad Kessel's +/- was. lol

 

[Snubbed4Vezina]

Maybe they'll change their tune when we get Jorconn Smyrou in six years. #believe

Okay I don't have that much koolaid, but the Kyrou hate really is insane. It's just ignoring all context about contract value and cap hits through the league.

Most of those people put the failures of this team squarely on the shoulders of Jordan Kyrou and his contract. It's comical.

 

[Brockon]

I forgot how bad Kessel's +/- was. lol

Shhhh no helping him! I'm trying to illustrate a point here. I want see exactly how he values the production of each guy in the cobbled together image I provided.

For someone ranting about the "8m dollar 50-60 point guy" after Kyrou starts working on what everyone complained endlessly about, I'm really curious how he values the totals and how close his guesses are. The goal isn't to identify the players, but drill home the Cap hit % being a part of the puzzle when looking at the rising contract values - which is something that is consistently moaned about ($ values of contracts, rather than observing the fairly stagnant CH% outside of the McDavid, MacKinnon, Pastrnak and Matthews tier stars).

 

[Brockon]

Yep, we will be returning to the days where long-term deals either no longer are achors or become bargains. Thomas in a couple seasons will probably be a huge value deal.

I'm of the opinion that Thomas' contract already looks like good value in year 1.

I'm really looking forward to see how favourable it is to comparable players in another few years - where I expect it to be raved about how well DA did signing him to this deal.

Looking at this season exclusively at centers on Capfriendly, RT is 10th in PPG scoring. His cap hit is 23rd and cap hit % is 26th. His points could fluctuate from year to year, but more players are going to leap frog him on that cap hit and cap hit % - like Pettersson, Scheifele's deals next season, and I expect more to leap frog the cap stats soon.

 

[bleedblue1223]

I haven't dug into the numbers, but he's been on Thomas' wing basically the last 40+ games and they line up against the top lines of the other team pretty frequently. Maybe he misses a shift here or there at the end of a game when we're protecting a lead, but for the most part I don't think we shelter him much. Offensive zone faceoffs, yes. But QoC no.

Now, naturalstattrick doesn't have QoC or QoT, and I'm not sure which site provides those metrics for free, so I won't dig into QoC until I get the numbers on that, but when it comes to zone starts, the Thomas line will likely get tough line matchups, but they get heavy offensive zone starts, so the line isn't used like a traditional shutdown like like O'Reilly's line was. That's a major factor for why possession stats are going to be very high, and why I don't like when people associate good possession metrics with good defensive play. In net, good possession players do mean that the other team is less likely to score while they are on the ice, but it says nothing about their actual defensive skills or effort.

If people want to compare possession stats against different players, you have to normalize, it has to be with players of similar deployment, so are they fed offensive minutes or defensive minutes, and then you'll have to account for quality of teammates and competition. Saying Kyrou is an elite defensive forward because possession numbers line up withe Selke centers that play a completely different role is just silly, and that's what the Reddit post was doing.

I'm of the opinion that Thomas' contract already looks like good value in year 1.

I'm really looking forward to see how favourable it is to comparable players in another few years - where I expect it to be raved about how well DA did signing him to this deal.

Looking at this season exclusively at centers on Capfriendly, RT is 10th in PPG scoring. His cap hit is 23rd and cap hit % is 26th. His points could fluctuate from year to year, but more players are going to leap frog him on that cap hit and cap hit % - like Pettersson, Scheifele's deals next season, and I expect more to leap frog the cap stats soon.

It's certainly good value, but what I'm talking about is where in a few years, we'll have surplus value in the millions, where his comps will start earning 10M+, and he's still around 8. Sort of how the Avs had insane value on MacKinnon's deal before he signed his current deal.

 

[bleedblue1223]

And when it comes to Kyrou, I don't really care about his defensive play that much. I don't want him to completely disengage from it, but I'm not worried if he never makes much more improvement. I think he's fine to be the offensive winger that isn't on the line getting tough matchups.

The part that I'm more worried about with him, his scoring consistency. In back to back seasons, he's had very rough starts, that can't be a trend, he has to be someone that can start a season strong. Then, from the night Bannister took over to 2/22, he had 14 goals and 28 points in 28 games, with a +5 rating. He had a 15.7% shooting %, so nothing was wildly unsustainable there. That's the player we are paying him to be. His next 9 games had 1 goal, 3 points, and a -8.

It's fine to be streaky, but the extreme streaks that players like Kyrou and Schenn seem to have these past 2 seasons can't happen. And really good players will have some horrific streaks like that in their career, so it's not unique or anything, but that's the part that I'm more worried about when it comes to Kyrou, not really his defense. We are paying him for the production during his hot streaks, so he either needs to do that more consistently or his hot streaks have to be way hotter, so his season totals match up with what he's being paid.

 

[Brockon]

Now, naturalstattrick doesn't have QoC or QoT, and I'm not sure which site provides those metrics for free, so I won't dig into QoC until I get the numbers on that, but when it comes to zone starts, the Thomas line will likely get tough line matchups, but they get heavy offensive zone starts, so the line isn't used like a traditional shutdown like like O'Reilly's line was. That's a major factor for why possession stats are going to be very high, and why I don't like when people associate good possession metrics with good defensive play. In net, good possession players do mean that the other team is less likely to score while they are on the ice, but it says nothing about their actual defensive skills or effort.

If people want to compare possession stats against different players, you have to normalize, it has to be with players of similar deployment, so are they fed offensive minutes or defensive minutes, and then you'll have to account for quality of teammates and competition. Saying Kyrou is an elite defensive forward because possession numbers line up withe Selke centers that play a completely different role is just silly, and that's what the Reddit post was doing.


It's certainly good value, but what I'm talking about is where in a few years, we'll have surplus value in the millions, where his comps will start earning 10M+, and he's still around 8. Sort of how the Avs had insane value on MacKinnon's deal before he signed his current deal.

Are Larkin's 10m or Barzal's 9.125m not significant enough differences for you to appreciate comparing contracts in their first year already looking worse than Thomas' contract?

Tied in scoring with Barzal in PPG, ahead of Larkin. Cheaper than both and playing near 1 min more aTOI. There's more to it than offense, and I'll try to delve into something slightly more significant than scoring rates and cap hits tommorow.

I agree that's only going to look better as league contracts go up in value - but I think it already looks awesome at 23% less than Larkin is paid in year 1 of his extension.

 

[bleedblue1223]

Are Larkin's 10m or Barzal's 9.125m not significant enough differences for you to appreciate comparing contracts in their first year already looking worse than Thomas' contract?

Tied in scoring with Barzal in PPG, ahead of Larkin. Cheaper than both and playing near 1 min more aTOI. There's more to it than offense, and I'll try to delve into something slightly more significant than scoring rates and cap hits tommorow.

I agree that's only going to look better as league contracts go up in value - but I think it already looks awesome at 23% less than Larkin is paid in year 1 of his extension.

I don't disagree, I guess my point is more, that 2-4 years from now, we'll see inferior players make more than Thomas, giving us insane value. If our defensemen can somehow hold onto their current level of play, they won't be anchors like we project them to be, because 6.5 will just be the going rate for 2nd pair dmen.

I remember back when Chicago signed Toews and Kane to those massive deals, and that was coming off back to back seasons of a cap increase over 7%. They signed those deals knowing they were rich early on, but would eventually become fair and even solid deals by the end, on the assumption that the similar increases would continue. Reality was, we never saw and increase like those seasons again, and then eventually had a flat cap. Luckily Kane was always a good deal, but the Toews one was a disaster.

I'll be curious if cap increase stabilize at a solid number or if we'll deal with fluctuation and will GMs go back to signing deals at an inflated value early on, that eventually becomes good value at the end, or similar to a deal like Thomas, where it's pretty fair at the start, that will only increase in surplus value as time goes on.

 

[Celtic Note]

And when it comes to Kyrou, I don't really care about his defensive play that much. I don't want him to completely disengage from it, but I'm not worried if he never makes much more improvement. I think he's fine to be the offensive winger that isn't on the line getting tough matchups.

The part that I'm more worried about with him, his scoring consistency. In back to back seasons, he's had very rough starts, that can't be a trend, he has to be someone that can start a season strong. Then, from the night Bannister took over to 2/22, he had 14 goals and 28 points in 28 games, with a +5 rating. He had a 15.7% shooting %, so nothing was wildly unsustainable there. That's the player we are paying him to be. His next 9 games had 1 goal, 3 points, and a -8.

It's fine to be streaky, but the extreme streaks that players like Kyrou and Schenn seem to have these past 2 seasons can't happen. And really good players will have some horrific streaks like that in their career, so it's not unique or anything, but that's the part that I'm more worried about when it comes to Kyrou, not really his defense. We are paying him for the production during his hot streaks, so he either needs to do that more consistently or his hot streaks have to be way hotter, so his season totals match up with what he's being paid.

The streaky play is valid to bring up. I think now that he has a year of more focus on defensive play that next year will be more telling of the player he will be the rest of his career. Also, I think it’s pretty obvious that he and Berube had a strained relationship. Not having that to deal with that should help reduce the friction that could have been a deterrent to consistency.