2023-2024 Blues Multi-Purpose Thread

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BadgersandBlues

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None of this is to say that a window will for sure open by 2025/26, but I don't at all think we should write off 2025/26 just because the prospects shouldn't be expected to be where Thomas was at in his D+5 season.
I agree - but it's getting harder and harder for me to see how this works out. We've all been hoping for a 2-4 year retool - but with how things are going, it's looking like it's going to be more like 7+.

We were one of the worst teams in the league under Berube at 5v5 from a metrics perspective. We had the worst PP and the worst PK.

Now we have Bannister and.....we still suck. Yes, the PP has shown signs of life, which is good - but we are now above only the Hawks in 5v5 xGF% since we made the change to Bannister - worse even then the Sharks. In short, Bannister has not been an answer for what ails us - frankly, at 5v5 we were better under Berube.

This team is consistently relying on it's goalie to be the team's best player night in and night out. I love Binner, and I have very high hopes for Hofer, but neither guy is going to become a top 3-5 goalie in the league in the next two years imo, which is what this team needs with the defense constructed the way it is. We can't stop the rush and we can't beat a strong forecheck. Our offense relies almost entirely on Thomas carrying the mail.

I don't want to trade Buch, but I don't see us becoming competitive again in the next 2-3 years unless things break exceptionally our way. I'm really not sure what I'd do right now, b/c it doesn't seem like we have a core to build around. Our veteran core isn't good enough to get it done, and our younger core isn't really even in the NHL.

Honestly, until we can depend on our bevy of 1-3 round picks from the last three years to handle meaningful NHL ice time, I really don't see how this team improves. And imo by that time all of Parayko/Binner/Buch are going to be well on the downside of their careers.
 

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Per the Athletic today:

9. According to their Net Rating, the St. Louis Blues have only three skaters this year who have put up above-average value: Robert Thomas, Jordan Kyrou and Pavel Buchnevich. That’s it.

St. Louis has an extremely thin lineup below its top line and that means even a new coach bump hasn’t cured what’s ailed this team. It’s been a little over a month since Drew Bannister was hired and while the team is 8-5-1 in that time, the underlying process remains abysmal.

Only the Chicago Blackhawks have a worse expected goals rate than St. Louis’ 42.7 percent during the time frame and its 44 percent of the goals isn’t much better. Both are sizeable drops from where they were under Craig Berube and point to a team that isn’t likely to hang around the playoff race.
 

bleedblue1223

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Yep, our depth is terrible, and looking at O'Reilly's stat line is depressing. Not sure if a return of him was possible or if we chose Hayes over him, but Schenn fallig off a cliff is not good for hopes of a quick retool.
 
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Mike Liut

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Honest question. When is the last time we’ve outplayed somebody? I feel most of our wins lately are from teams on B2B, playing their back up goalie or Binny stealing them.
 
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Spektre

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With all the talk regarding keeping/trading Buch, it's getting me thinking about what we think is a realistic timeline to start competing again for a Cup. We're in a really weird place - we have 1-3 great pieces up front on our current roster (Buch/Thomas/Kyrou), 1 really solid piece on our back end (Parayko) and a goalie that we can win a Cup with if we have enough talent around him.

The issue I keep coming back to when it comes to Buch - It's hard to see how the door opens at all for the better next season. Our defensive core is locked in and clearly isn't good enough. No one on our back end is at an age where we can expect improvement. So let's just assume that we suck again next year too. After next season, we get a lot more flexibility on the trade front of Krug/Faulk/Schenn/Leddy - which would also be the first season of a Buch extension, where he will be 30, with Parayko and Binner at 32. Are we really going to trade 3/4's of our top 4 D in one off-season? Probably not. Even 2 would be tough. Who are we replacing them with? We do have a bunch of D prospects, but outside Lindstein, really no one jumps off the page as a top 4 guy.

Before I get into the forward prospects, I'd like to point out that it took Thomas until his D+5 season to really break out offensively and become a top line player for us - and that was with him in the NHL by his D+2 season.

By 25-26, Bolduc and Dean will be in their D+5 seasons. Neither has given any indication they are ready for even a cup of coffee in the NHL at this point, so that's two prospects we're hoping to see massive growth from to even be ready to take a regular NHL shift by 25-26. Snuggy will be in his D+4 season, and I have the hope that he will have at least one full season under his belt by that point. Dvo/Stenberg/Lindstein will all be in their D+3 seasons - perhaps one of them will have played a full season in the NHL, perhaps not - but this kinda gets to my point - we have all these prospects, and they all look like they have the opportunity to play in the NHL and do well in the NHL - but expecting them to become a Robert Thomas-esque contributor this early in their development seems a fool's errand.

So basically, by the start of 25-26 we're going to have a 32 year old Parayko and a 32 year old Binner. I'm worried less about Binner as Hofer has looked like a real potential replacement - but (and I feel like I've been a broken record about this for the last 2+ years) wtf are we going to do about this defense?

I'm not trying to be a doomer, but expecting us to compete for a top 3 in our division as well as a Cup as early as 25-26 just doesn't seem feasible with the current timeline on this crop of prospects - maybe 2-3 years after that, sure, but by then Buch will be 32-33 and clearly on the decline. I guess this is my roundabout way of saying I do think we should trade him, while also trying to stimulate conversation on how we could potentially improve quicker then the timeline I laid out above to change my mind and keep him.


We know Armstrong (or hopefully any GM) doesn't just look at the franchise with a year-to-year mindset. I have zero experience working for the NHL. It wasn't hard to see the direction of the franchise. None of us are sitting down with Army and being told his thoughts, but that would be fun. He obviously wanted to trade Krug and was blocked. He basically denied the Parayko rumors last year without specifically saying so. At the same time, he expected the Blues to be competing for a playoff spot this year.

My question has always been, what's the point?

The only answer that makes sense is, it's always about the money. I just want to have a beer with Army and for him to say.. look.. we have to say things in public to look one way, but at the end of the day.. we have to make some decisions based on the bottom line. I don't like that answer but there's no other choice but to accept it.

Nobody knows what the roster will look like next year or the year after, other than several pieces. One thing that has stayed consistent in the NHL, even with the salary cap, is lots of turnover every year.

I didn't agree with trying to bring in Sanheim. It looks like he's turned things around, but I thought it was too big of a gamble given the state of the franchise. I'm expecting Army to trade for a similar type/age LHD. Given his public comments, to which I was really surprised to hear, I think Krug could be bought out after this year. If that happens it instanly grants $6,166,667 in cap space. The Blues would be on the hook for $2,333,333 until the end of the 29-30 season.

If I'm wagering money, it's not on the buyout scenario. I think Army finds a way to trade Krug somehow.

I will maintain it was much better for the organization to tank this year. I'm not talking top 10 pick. I'm talking top 3. This organization needs elite prospects. That's the quickest way to really be competitive again.

Picking in the top 3, plus trading Buchnevich for futures, could have catapulted this stale status of Blues hockey.

Think how happy everyone here would be if after the next draft the Blues had someone in the Silayev ilk along with another 1st round pick + futures from a Buchnevich trade.

I think you're probably still looking at 3 years from now until you are competing, but when that corner is turned, it's done so with velocity, instead of limping along for who knows how long.

I like seeing young guys get chances and make the most of them, and seeing progress being made by our players. But give me a scorched earth rebuild over stagnant (we might could, possibly, maybe, squeak into the playoffs, and then go out the 1st round blahhhh hockey).

I watched the Blues win it all. I really never thought it would happen, 100%. I fully expect the next 5 years to be full of watching some prospects grow up in the NHL, while at the same time, watch the Blues stay right around where they are now overall.

I hope Army proves me wrong.
 
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Frenzy31

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We know Armstrong (or hopefully any GM) doesn't just look at the franchise with a year-to-year mindset. I have zero experience working for the NHL. It wasn't hard to see the direction of the franchise. None of us are sitting down with Army and being told his thoughts, but that would be fun. He obviously wanted to trade Krug and was blocked. He basically denied the Parayko rumors last year without specifically saying so. At the same time, he expected the Blues to be competing for a playoff spot this year.

My question has always been, what's the point?

The only answer that makes sense is, it's always about the money. I just want to have a beer with Army and for him to say.. look.. we have to say things in public to look one way, but at the end of the day.. we have to make some decisions based on the bottom line. I don't like that answer but there's no other choice but to accept it.

Nobody knows what the roster will look like next year or the year after, other than several pieces. One thing that has stayed consistent in the NHL, even with the salary cap, is lots of turnover every year.

I didn't agree with trying to bring in Sanheim. It looks like he's turned things around, but I thought it was too big of a gamble given the state of the franchise. I'm expecting Army to trade for a similar type/age LHD. Given his public comments, to which I was really surprised to hear, I think Krug could be bought out after this year. If that happens it instanly grants $6,166,667 in cap space. The Blues would be on the hook for $2,333,333 until the end of the 29-30 season.

If I'm wagering money, it's not on the buyout scenario. I think Army finds a way to trade Krug somehow.

I will maintain it was much better for the organization to tank this year. I'm not talking top 10 pick. I'm talking top 3. This organization needs elite prospects. That's the quickest way to really be competitive again.

Picking in the top 3, plus trading Buchnevich for futures, could have catapulted this stale status of Blues hockey.

Think how happy everyone here would be if after the next draft the Blues had someone in the Silayev ilk along with another 1st round pick + futures from a Buchnevich trade.

I think you're probably still looking at 3 years from now until you are competing, but when that corner is turned, it's done so with velocity, instead of limping along for who knows how long.

I like seeing young guys get chances and make the most of them, and seeing progress being made by our players. But give me a scorched earth rebuild over stagnant (we might could, possibly, maybe, squeak into the playoffs, and then go out the 1st round blahhhh hockey).

I watched the Blues win it all. I really never thought it would happen, 100%. I fully expect the next 5 years to be full of watching some prospects grow up in the NHL, while at the same time, watch the Blues stay right around where they are now overall.

I hope Army proves me wrong.

We are limping along, but it is by design at this point. Does anyone really think Army see contender when he looks at this roster? If we can see that, how doesn't he? And no, he can't just come out and say that.

I know you mentioned Sanheim, but to me that is a no brainer move. You really don't see a lot of top pairing guys available. He doesn't turn us into a contender this year, but 3 years from now you still have a top pairing guy, in his prime, who can play at a high level, same with CP at this point.

How does this roster - pick in the top 3? Are you really willing to move RT and CP? In hopes that you can draft a future RT or CP? We started last year with asset acquisition. And we have always drafted well. I think naturally, if we move Buch, I think we will slowly drop in the standing and be picking 5-10.

f***, if that POS Vrana hadn't gone on a scoring streak last year, we would have picked in the 5-7 range in 2023.

To me, both Sanheim and CP will be solid players in 3 years and I think Army believes that and so adding Sanheim for Krug - would have helped a little this season, but would have really helped when we have more explosiveness for the forwards - which are no in the system and progressing.

To me, to really build a team, you need your D to be in their prime, with some solid vet forwards, but also young forwards that can really drive the play. D is a harder position to learn and takes a lot longer to develop. Plus it feels like D often don't live up to draft position and are more likely to be 2nd pairing d then first when taken in the first round. (Which we seem to find pretty well in the other rounds). Basically I am saying it is better to get an established D vs trying to develop 1.
 

Brian39

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Per the Athletic today:
t’s been a little over a month since Drew Bannister was hired and while the team is 8-5-1 in that time, the underlying process remains abysmal.


Only the Chicago Blackhawks have a worse expected goals rate than St. Louis’ 42.7 percent during the time frame and its 44 percent of the goals isn’t much better. Both are sizeable drops from where they were under Craig Berube and point to a team that isn’t likely to hang around the playoff race.
I'm not trying to make the argument that this team has been amazing under Bannister, but I think that these stats are missing an enormous amount of context. I don't know of a site where you can see a strength of schedule ranking for a specific set of dates, but I'd bet money that the Blues have had the hardest schedule in the league since Bannister took over. And our schedule has been night and day compared to the schedule under Berube.

10 of the 14 games under Bannister have been against opponents who are currently top 10 in the NHL (by both points and points percentage). The other 4 games were Tampa (16th), Pittsburgh (17th) and then the Ottawa/Chicago bottom dwellers. Under Berube, we played just 8 of our 28 games against opponents who are currently top 10 in the NHL (and 5 games against the bottom 5 basement dwellers). The remaining 15 games were against the mushy middle of teams ranked 11th-27th in the league.

Let's compare by percentage:

Top 10 opponents: 71.4% of Bannister's games vs 28.6% of Berube's games
11th-27th opponents: 14.3% of Bannister's games vs 53.6% of Berube's games
28th-32nd opponents: 14.3% of Bannister's games vs 17.9% of Berube's games

That is a monstrous difference. Playing identical hockey, you would expect a team to have far, far better underlying metrics in the 28 games under Berube than the 14 games under Bannister.

Again, I'm not trying to say that this team is a world beater under Bannister, but the schedule has been absolutely brutal. The average standings rank of our opponent under Bannister is at 10.9 through those 14 games (and that is brought way down just due to the Chicago/Ottawa games; it is 7.6 over the other 12 games). I think that the majority of bubble-or-worse teams would be getting caved in against this stretch of schedule. I don't find much value in comparing our underlying metrics to the ones under Berube. We've played a completely different class of opponent.
 

Spektre

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We are limping along, but it is by design at this point. Does anyone really think Army see contender when he looks at this roster? If we can see that, how doesn't he? And no, he can't just come out and say that.

I know you mentioned Sanheim, but to me that is a no brainer move. You really don't see a lot of top pairing guys available. He doesn't turn us into a contender this year, but 3 years from now you still have a top pairing guy, in his prime, who can play at a high level, same with CP at this point.

How does this roster - pick in the top 3? Are you really willing to move RT and CP? In hopes that you can draft a future RT or CP? We started last year with asset acquisition. And we have always drafted well. I think naturally, if we move Buch, I think we will slowly drop in the standing and be picking 5-10.

f***, if that POS Vrana hadn't gone on a scoring streak last year, we would have picked in the 5-7 range in 2023.

To me, both Sanheim and CP will be solid players in 3 years and I think Army believes that and so adding Sanheim for Krug - would have helped a little this season, but would have really helped when we have more explosiveness for the forwards - which are no in the system and progressing.

To me, to really build a team, you need your D to be in their prime, with some solid vet forwards, but also young forwards that can really drive the play. D is a harder position to learn and takes a lot longer to develop. Plus it feels like D often don't live up to draft position and are more likely to be 2nd pairing d then first when taken in the first round. (Which we seem to find pretty well in the other rounds). Basically I am saying it is better to get an established D vs trying to develop 1.


I get it, but you had Philly fans after last year saying they couldn't give Sanheim away for free. Yes, he was their top pair D, but certainly didn't play like one. There's also no guarantee he plays to the same level here as he has in Philly this year. How would fans have reacted to yet another D, signed for 8 years, who wasn't living up to the hype? It was a gamble.
 

Frenzy31

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I get it, but you had Philly fans after last year saying they couldn't give Sanheim away for free. Yes, he was their top pair D, but certainly didn't play like one. There's also no guarantee he plays to the same level here as he has in Philly this year. How would fans have reacted to yet another D, signed for 8 years, who wasn't living up to the hype? It was a gamble.
Last year CP‘s back didn’t look like it would hold up. This year he has been great. The hole Phili team was going into a complete tear down. Fans thought it would be a complete rebuild, but not so much his season.

Sanhiems body of work has been solid. Many players have a rough year in their career. Sometimes it is personal life, sometimes coaching, sometimes teammates.
 

Bye Bye Blueston

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Last year CP‘s back didn’t look like it would hold up. This year he has been great. The hole Phili team was going into a complete tear down. Fans thought it would be a complete rebuild, but not so much his season.

Sanhiems body of work has been solid. Many players have a rough year in their career. Sometimes it is personal life, sometimes coaching, sometimes teammates.
agreed. he's always been good player, last year aside. he was 1st round pick, progressed through ahl, and while not perfect he is at worst good top 4 guy. last year he struggled, but that whole team was tire fire last year. by all accounts he has been really good this season. woulda been a nice add. but i think lindstein (who we took with pick we woulda sent philly) can be better, so hopefully it works out.
 
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HighNote

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Honest question. When is the last time we’ve outplayed somebody? I feel most of our wins lately are from teams on B2B, playing their back up goalie or Binny stealing them.
Might have been November 14th against the Lightning, 5-0 shutout win. Then, two nights later, we were promptly spanked by the last place Sharks who had 5 points through 16 games leading into the contest.
 

TheOrganist

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Yep, our depth is terrible, and looking at O'Reilly's stat line is depressing. Not sure if a return of him was possible or if we chose Hayes over him, but Schenn fallig off a cliff is not good for hopes of a quick retool.
I’ve been following ROR from afar as well. Don’t want to be hypocrite as I thought that contract was ridiculous but good on him for turning back the clock in Nashville. If they can get at least 3 years out of him producing like this while also having obvious office intangibles that would def be a win for them. He’s been awesome so far.
 

TheOrganist

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Per the Athletic today:

9. According to their Net Rating, the St. Louis Blues have only three skaters this year who have put up above-average value: Robert Thomas, Jordan Kyrou and Pavel Buchnevich. That’s it.

St. Louis has an extremely thin lineup below its top line and that means even a new coach bump hasn’t cured what’s ailed this team. It’s been a little over a month since Drew Bannister was hired and while the team is 8-5-1 in that time, the underlying process remains abysmal.

Only the Chicago Blackhawks have a worse expected goals rate than St. Louis’ 42.7 percent during the time frame and its 44 percent of the goals isn’t much better. Both are sizeable drops from where they were under Craig Berube and point to a team that isn’t likely to hang around the playoff race.
This passes the eye test. They are routinely out chanced, outshot, out attempted and out possessed. And it’s been a trend for years since our D core became shit. It’s a terrible team and the organization is obviously in the bottom third tier in the NHL. It’ll be a long road back up, sadly.
 

Reality Czech

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Yep, our depth is terrible, and looking at O'Reilly's stat line is depressing. Not sure if a return of him was possible or if we chose Hayes over him, but Schenn fallig off a cliff is not good for hopes of a quick retool.

Just my opinion but I feel like ROR chose Nashville because he was guaranteed to be the 1C, whereas here he would have been more of a role player with the emergence of Thomas. Plus, Trotz is trying to rebuild the culture there which is why he specifically targeted ROR and Luke Schenn. Also I doubt any other team was willing to give him 4 years at $4.5 million, which may have been what sealed the deal for Nashville.
 

Spektre

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The Athletic puts out an article identifying each team’s biggest needs at the TDL.

Per Rutherford’s genius insight:

A top-nine forward: The Blues aren’t expected to be active buyers at the trade deadline, but if general manager Doug Armstrong gets started early on his offseason work, he would be wise to find a top-nine forward or two. The Blues won’t be bringing back unrestricted free agent Jakub Vrana and could also move on from UFA Kasperi Kapanen. Prospect Jimmy Snuggerud may be turning pro after his college season, but the club will need more experience up front. Armstrong has players he wouldn’t mind moving, particularly on defense, and perhaps he could flip them into forward help. — Jeremy Rutherford

Isn’t that what everyone here has been wishing for??
 

Majorityof1

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The Athletic puts out an article identifying each team’s biggest needs at the TDL.

Per Rutherford’s genius insight:

A top-nine forward: The Blues aren’t expected to be active buyers at the trade deadline, but if general manager Doug Armstrong gets started early on his offseason work, he would be wise to find a top-nine forward or two. The Blues won’t be bringing back unrestricted free agent Jakub Vrana and could also move on from UFA Kasperi Kapanen. Prospect Jimmy Snuggerud may be turning pro after his college season, but the club will need more experience up front. Armstrong has players he wouldn’t mind moving, particularly on defense, and perhaps he could flip them into forward help. — Jeremy Rutherford

Isn’t that what everyone here has been wishing for??

Its not the biggest need, but it might be the most immediate. We've had Torpochenko, Gaudette, Walker, Sunqvist in our top 9. We do need some forward depth. While LD is the biggest need, we have to move out salary/contracts to make room. So that is probably not a TDL move. That is an off season move.
 
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Linkens Mastery

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The Athletic puts out an article identifying each team’s biggest needs at the TDL.

Per Rutherford’s genius insight:

A top-nine forward: The Blues aren’t expected to be active buyers at the trade deadline, but if general manager Doug Armstrong gets started early on his offseason work, he would be wise to find a top-nine forward or two. The Blues won’t be bringing back unrestricted free agent Jakub Vrana and could also move on from UFA Kasperi Kapanen. Prospect Jimmy Snuggerud may be turning pro after his college season, but the club will need more experience up front. Armstrong has players he wouldn’t mind moving, particularly on defense, and perhaps he could flip them into forward help. — Jeremy Rutherford

Isn’t that what everyone here has been wishing for??
Feels about right
 

Celtic Note

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Its not the biggest need, but it might be the most immediate. We've had Torpochenko, Gaudette, Walker, Sunqvist in our top 9. We do need some forward depth. While LD is the biggest need, we have to move out salary/contracts to make room. So that is probably not a TDL move. That is an off season move.
I do think it’s more likely that we make any significant trades in the off-season, but I could see that’s forward add with an eye towards next year.

If we can get a forward upgrade for a roster player and less than a 1st rounder I might be good with that, but I do not want to take on too much cap in season if it means we handcuff ourselves due to lack of cap space to make a trade that moves out one of our aging contracts.

I also don’t want to substantially upgrade the roster in season if it increases our chance of losing draft position. If we need to be bad to improve, then let’s rip the bandaid off.
 

Renard

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I get it, but you had Philly fans after last year saying they couldn't give Sanheim away for free. Yes, he was their top pair D, but certainly didn't play like one. There's also no guarantee he plays to the same level here as he has in Philly this year. How would fans have reacted to yet another D, signed for 8 years, who wasn't living up to the hype? It was a gamble.
I saw some posts from Philly fans screaming for Sandheim's head for his gaffes. <Maybe it was a reaction to a bad game, but if you are curious, go to the Philly fourm, and search under the name Sandheim.
 

Frenzy31

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I saw some posts from Philly fans screaming for Sandheim's head for his gaffes. <Maybe it was a reaction to a bad game, but if you are curious, go to the Philly fourm, and search under the name Sandheim.

Have you been around here during a loss? There are whipping boys in every fan base. He is also playing 24 minutes a night, but is a -11. I am currious as to his d partner is. Guessing Cam York, but I don't watch Phili. so who knows.

This is a team that was expected to go into a full rebuild- and yet they are 25-16-6.... He is a big reason why.
 
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bleedblue1223

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I'd love to know what Army thinks of our situation right now. I think he knows this team isn't going anywhere in the playoffs, but I have to think he likes how the team is fighting and doing well under Bannister. Bannister now has more than a few pretty impressive wins against top teams. You can argue that we aren't outplaying teams, but on some level a win is a win.

It reminds me when Davis Payne was coach, so while Bannister has probably pushed his name into consideration, I hope we don't elevate his name to the top of the list just on how he finishes the season.

And while the team is performing better, Army has to see the weaknesses in the roster. Depending on how we finish the season, if we keep scrapping together performances, will Army be more likely to start adding pieces to the roster or take a slower approach and go more the prospect route.
 

Bye Bye Blueston

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I'd love to know what Army thinks of our situation right now. I think he knows this team isn't going anywhere in the playoffs, but I have to think he likes how the team is fighting and doing well under Bannister. Bannister now has more than a few pretty impressive wins against top teams. You can argue that we aren't outplaying teams, but on some level a win is a win.

It reminds me when Davis Payne was coach, so while Bannister has probably pushed his name into consideration, I hope we don't elevate his name to the top of the list just on how he finishes the season.

And while the team is performing better, Army has to see the weaknesses in the roster. Depending on how we finish the season, if we keep scrapping together performances, will Army be more likely to start adding pieces to the roster or take a slower approach and go more the prospect route.
all of the above? i could see him hiring bannister because he likes how the team is playing and guys are developing, even while he doubts that bannister is guy who will be our coach when we are contenders again. and i think we will add some (likely low cost) vets bext year bc we don't want to force dvo and snuggy and bolduc into roles they aren't ready for. hopefully the adds will be more like sunny and less like vrana though. regardless, i can't see next year's team being much better than this year's and i think army sees that too.
 
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