With all the talk regarding keeping/trading Buch, it's getting me thinking about what we think is a realistic timeline to start competing again for a Cup. We're in a really weird place - we have 1-3 great pieces up front on our current roster (Buch/Thomas/Kyrou), 1 really solid piece on our back end (Parayko) and a goalie that we can win a Cup with if we have enough talent around him.
The issue I keep coming back to when it comes to Buch - It's hard to see how the door opens at all for the better next season. Our defensive core is locked in and clearly isn't good enough. No one on our back end is at an age where we can expect improvement. So let's just assume that we suck again next year too. After next season, we get a lot more flexibility on the trade front of Krug/Faulk/Schenn/Leddy - which would also be the first season of a Buch extension, where he will be 30, with Parayko and Binner at 32. Are we really going to trade 3/4's of our top 4 D in one off-season? Probably not. Even 2 would be tough. Who are we replacing them with? We do have a bunch of D prospects, but outside Lindstein, really no one jumps off the page as a top 4 guy.
Before I get into the forward prospects, I'd like to point out that it took Thomas until his D+5 season to really break out offensively and become a top line player for us - and that was with him in the NHL by his D+2 season.
By 25-26, Bolduc and Dean will be in their D+5 seasons. Neither has given any indication they are ready for even a cup of coffee in the NHL at this point, so that's two prospects we're hoping to see massive growth from to even be ready to take a regular NHL shift by 25-26. Snuggy will be in his D+4 season, and I have the hope that he will have at least one full season under his belt by that point. Dvo/Stenberg/Lindstein will all be in their D+3 seasons - perhaps one of them will have played a full season in the NHL, perhaps not - but this kinda gets to my point - we have all these prospects, and they all look like they have the opportunity to play in the NHL and do well in the NHL - but expecting them to become a Robert Thomas-esque contributor this early in their development seems a fool's errand.
So basically, by the start of 25-26 we're going to have a 32 year old Parayko and a 32 year old Binner. I'm worried less about Binner as Hofer has looked like a real potential replacement - but (and I feel like I've been a broken record about this for the last 2+ years) wtf are we going to do about this defense?
I'm not trying to be a doomer, but expecting us to compete for a top 3 in our division as well as a Cup as early as 25-26 just doesn't seem feasible with the current timeline on this crop of prospects - maybe 2-3 years after that, sure, but by then Buch will be 32-33 and clearly on the decline. I guess this is my roundabout way of saying I do think we should trade him, while also trying to stimulate conversation on how we could potentially improve quicker then the timeline I laid out above to change my mind and keep him.
We know Armstrong (or hopefully any GM) doesn't just look at the franchise with a year-to-year mindset. I have zero experience working for the NHL. It wasn't hard to see the direction of the franchise. None of us are sitting down with Army and being told his thoughts, but that would be fun. He obviously wanted to trade Krug and was blocked. He basically denied the Parayko rumors last year without specifically saying so. At the same time, he expected the Blues to be competing for a playoff spot this year.
My question has always been, what's the point?
The only answer that makes sense is, it's always about the money. I just want to have a beer with Army and for him to say.. look.. we have to say things in public to look one way, but at the end of the day.. we have to make some decisions based on the bottom line. I don't like that answer but there's no other choice but to accept it.
Nobody knows what the roster will look like next year or the year after, other than several pieces. One thing that has stayed consistent in the NHL, even with the salary cap, is lots of turnover every year.
I didn't agree with trying to bring in Sanheim. It looks like he's turned things around, but I thought it was too big of a gamble given the state of the franchise. I'm expecting Army to trade for a similar type/age LHD. Given his public comments, to which I was really surprised to hear, I think Krug could be bought out after this year. If that happens it instanly grants $6,166,667 in cap space. The Blues would be on the hook for $2,333,333 until the end of the 29-30 season.
If I'm wagering money, it's not on the buyout scenario. I think Army finds a way to trade Krug somehow.
I will maintain it was much better for the organization to tank this year. I'm not talking top 10 pick. I'm talking top 3. This organization needs elite prospects. That's the quickest way to really be competitive again.
Picking in the top 3, plus trading Buchnevich for futures, could have catapulted this stale status of Blues hockey.
Think how happy everyone here would be if after the next draft the Blues had someone in the Silayev ilk along with another 1st round pick + futures from a Buchnevich trade.
I think you're probably still looking at 3 years from now until you are competing, but when that corner is turned, it's done so with velocity, instead of limping along for who knows how long.
I like seeing young guys get chances and make the most of them, and seeing progress being made by our players. But give me a scorched earth rebuild over stagnant (we might could, possibly, maybe, squeak into the playoffs, and then go out the 1st round blahhhh hockey).
I watched the Blues win it all. I really never thought it would happen, 100%. I fully expect the next 5 years to be full of watching some prospects grow up in the NHL, while at the same time, watch the Blues stay right around where they are now overall.
I hope Army proves me wrong.