With all the talk regarding keeping/trading Buch, it's getting me thinking about what we think is a realistic timeline to start competing again for a Cup. We're in a really weird place - we have 1-3 great pieces up front on our current roster (Buch/Thomas/Kyrou), 1 really solid piece on our back end (Parayko) and a goalie that we can win a Cup with if we have enough talent around him.
The issue I keep coming back to when it comes to Buch - It's hard to see how the door opens at all for the better next season. Our defensive core is locked in and clearly isn't good enough. No one on our back end is at an age where we can expect improvement. So let's just assume that we suck again next year too. After next season, we get a lot more flexibility on the trade front of Krug/Faulk/Schenn/Leddy - which would also be the first season of a Buch extension, where he will be 30, with Parayko and Binner at 32. Are we really going to trade 3/4's of our top 4 D in one off-season? Probably not. Even 2 would be tough. Who are we replacing them with? We do have a bunch of D prospects, but outside Lindstein, really no one jumps off the page as a top 4 guy.
Before I get into the forward prospects, I'd like to point out that it took Thomas until his D+5 season to really break out offensively and become a top line player for us - and that was with him in the NHL by his D+2 season.
By 25-26, Bolduc and Dean will be in their D+5 seasons. Neither has given any indication they are ready for even a cup of coffee in the NHL at this point, so that's two prospects we're hoping to see massive growth from to even be ready to take a regular NHL shift by 25-26. Snuggy will be in his D+4 season, and I have the hope that he will have at least one full season under his belt by that point. Dvo/Stenberg/Lindstein will all be in their D+3 seasons - perhaps one of them will have played a full season in the NHL, perhaps not - but this kinda gets to my point - we have all these prospects, and they all look like they have the opportunity to play in the NHL and do well in the NHL - but expecting them to become a Robert Thomas-esque contributor this early in their development seems a fool's errand.
So basically, by the start of 25-26 we're going to have a 32 year old Parayko and a 32 year old Binner. I'm worried less about Binner as Hofer has looked like a real potential replacement - but (and I feel like I've been a broken record about this for the last 2+ years) wtf are we going to do about this defense?
I'm not trying to be a doomer, but expecting us to compete for a top 3 in our division as well as a Cup as early as 25-26 just doesn't seem feasible with the current timeline on this crop of prospects - maybe 2-3 years after that, sure, but by then Buch will be 32-33 and clearly on the decline. I guess this is my roundabout way of saying I do think we should trade him, while also trying to stimulate conversation on how we could potentially improve quicker then the timeline I laid out above to change my mind and keep him.