2023-2024 Blues Multi-Purpose Thread

[joe galiba]

Two wrongs don't make a right!

but three lefts do

 

[EXTRAS]

but three lefts do

Rightys are overvalued.

 

[ezcreepin]

Perunovich is 25. How much time does a prospect get? I've seen him in college, Ahl, pros, training camp. He's not shown even decent D at any level. He looks great on plays on offense, but it doesn't lead to a ton of goals. Why keep giving chances to a 25 year old who has shown no improvement in 1/2 the game.

Over the last 3 years(20-21 to 22-23), Krug had a GF per 60 of 9.8 on the PP. Faulk has 7.08. That is hardly double. Also Krug when he plays is on PP1 which has the best forwards, and the most time on a 2 minute PP to set up. Krug gets a1:15 to 1:30 per PP with the best forwards while Faulk gets 30 seconds with grp 2. And even with all that, it isn't doubled. Faulk as Pp1 would have better GF/60. Even without that improvement, Krug had 490 minutes over 3 years. So the difference is roughly 6 goals a season. But we'd lose the black hole of having to shelter Krug on D.

Perunovich has played all of 19 regular season games. If you think you know exactly who he is after that, then idk what to say. Just because you may guess right on what he becomes doesn't mean you were right. You're evaluating him without full information and context at the NHL level.

As far as Krug and Faulk, I was just taking surface level points acquired and games played, but even if we take into account advanced metrics like rates and comparing ice time, Krug is still outpacing Faulk by almost 1.5x. Say what you want about power play partners, but Faulk has had 36 games more than Krug over those 3 years to establish himself as a good option to run out on the powerplay and hasn't yet. He's played nearly 3 full seasons over those 3 years and they'd rather Krug on the 1st pp because he converts more often. Whether we like it or not, guys like Krug and Perunovich have a place in the game today because they can set up and convert on the powerplay better than anyone. Faulk can't.

 

[Majorityof1]

Perunovich has played all of 19 regular season games. If you think you know exactly who he is after that, then idk what to say. Just because you may guess right on what he becomes doesn't mean you were right. You're evaluating him without full information and context at the NHL level.

As far as Krug and Faulk, I was just taking surface level points acquired and games played, but even if we take into account advanced metrics like rates and comparing ice time, Krug is still outpacing Faulk by almost 1.5x. Say what you want about power play partners, but Faulk has had 36 games more than Krug over those 3 years to establish himself as a good option to run out on the powerplay and hasn't yet. He's played nearly 3 full seasons over those 3 years and they'd rather Krug on the 1st pp because he converts more often. Whether we like it or not, guys like Krug and Perunovich have a place in the game today because they can set up and convert on the powerplay better than anyone. Faulk can't.

Perunovich doesn't have many NHL games but he has games. If he can't hack it defensively at lower levels, how can he at NHL level. Hunter Skinner has 0 NHL games. Am I going to see you argue we should give him 100 NHL games before giving up on him?

My point wasn't that Faulk was better on PP. Krug is better. But PP is such a small part of game that it isn't worth Krug's downside to have a D specifically for the PP who is such a liability 5v5. The math bears that out. Would you stay at a luxury hotel for your 1 week vacation if it meant you lived in a cardboard box the other 51 weeks?

Krug 5v5 is the cardboard box. His poor play has ramifications throughout the game beyond when he is on the ice as Parayko-Leddy need to have ridiculous assignments to shelter him. They had the 2 hardest deployments in the league last year and it was partially Krug's fault as he cannot handle anything 5v5.

 

[Linkens Mastery]

I'm more interested in how the roster looks at the end of the season. We have multiple players that are on their last year, we have multiple question marks with young players, we have a player who got asked to waive his no trade clause.

Do the Blues come out again and lay a gigantic dud to begin the season?

If Stillman and Army actually think we are contenders how long of a leash do they give Berube?

If we do lay a dud, does Buch tell front office that he wants out?

If the Blues come out and show that last year was a fluke, does that make front office decide to keep Kap, Vrana, Scandella, and Bortuzzo for a playoff run?


Blues are in a really weird spot. They could totally Over-perform everyone's projections, or they can utterly underperform. And I really don't think we are gonna get a full answer until January at the earliest.

 

[Linkens Mastery]

Marek on the Blues on 32TPs "Thomas-Kyrou-Buchnevich Line looks really, really good." Lets see if they can keep it up.

 

[ezcreepin]

Perunovich doesn't have many NHL games but he has games. If he can't hack it defensively at lower levels, how can he at NHL level. Hunter Skinner has 0 NHL games. Am I going to see you argue we should give him 100 NHL games before giving up on him?

My point wasn't that Faulk was better on PP. Krug is better. But PP is such a small part of game that it isn't worth Krug's downside to have a D specifically for the PP who is such a liability 5v5. The math bears that out. Would you stay at a luxury hotel for your 1 week vacation if it meant you lived in a cardboard box the other 51 weeks?

Krug 5v5 is the cardboard box. His poor play has ramifications throughout the game beyond when he is on the ice as Parayko-Leddy need to have ridiculous assignments to shelter him. They had the 2 hardest deployments in the league last year and it was partially Krug's fault as he cannot handle anything 5v5.

Obviously I'm not going to want Skinner to play, but I haven't seen him prove enough down in the AHL to warrant him coming up. Unless you can show me advanced stats of players in the AHL, then all you can go off of is hearsay and points, which Perunovich has easily proved he's much too good for the AHL. I don't like using +/- to justify a player being deserving of a callup either, but for what it's worth Perunovich was a +49 in NCAA and even +/- in the AHL and Skinner was a +22 in the OHL, -1 in the AHL. I couldn't tell you if either of them were "solid" in the AHL and I don't watch the games so all I can go off of is points.

No, I know what your point is. You don't value someone who can run a powerplay better than the top 1% of players in the league unless they can defend. I don't necessarily oppose that opinion, but you saying pp isn't that significant of a skill is just a lie. Having a good powerplay is almost a must in the playoffs unless you have a top 5 defense in the league, which the Blues don't have and probably won't have for a good while. So although I sympathize with your position, the reality is that teams do value that skill, and I'd rather if we're going to employ it, that we do it with a guy who is $6 mil cheaper than keep a guy like Krug. That's really my position in totality.

I'm not going to argue stats on Krug because I'd be shocked if everyone doesn't agree that he doesn't play defense well. If we could clone Faulk and run him on the 1st and 2nd pair then I'm all for it. At least if you're able to get rid of Krug and replace him with Perunovich, you can more easily shelter him and get similar production on the pp. Yes, I know that the goal is to have 3 solid pairings 5v5 but the Blues aren't going to do that.

 

[Majorityof1]

Obviously I'm not going to want Skinner to play, but I haven't seen him prove enough down in the AHL to warrant him coming up. Unless you can show me advanced stats of players in the AHL, then all you can go off of is hearsay and points, which Perunovich has easily proved he's much too good for the AHL. I don't like using +/- to justify a player being deserving of a callup either, but for what it's worth Perunovich was a +49 in NCAA and even +/- in the AHL and Skinner was a +22 in the OHL, -1 in the AHL. I couldn't tell you if either of them were "solid" in the AHL and I don't watch the games so all I can go off of is points.

No, I know what your point is. You don't value someone who can run a powerplay better than the top 1% of players in the league unless they can defend. I don't necessarily oppose that opinion, but you saying pp isn't that significant of a skill is just a lie. Having a good powerplay is almost a must in the playoffs unless you have a top 5 defense in the league, which the Blues don't have and probably won't have for a good while. So although I sympathize with your position, the reality is that teams do value that skill, and I'd rather if we're going to employ it, that we do it with a guy who is $6 mil cheaper than keep a guy like Krug. That's really my position in totality.

I'm not going to argue stats on Krug because I'd be shocked if everyone doesn't agree that he doesn't play defense well. If we could clone Faulk and run him on the 1st and 2nd pair then I'm all for it. At least if you're able to get rid of Krug and replace him with Perunovich, you can more easily shelter him and get similar production on the pp. Yes, I know that the goal is to have 3 solid pairings 5v5 but the Blues aren't going to do that.

I do watch the AHL. Not a ton, but I'll check out a a dozen or so games a year on AHL.tv. Perunovich is sheltered even in the AHL from what I have seen. Adaquate defense is not the reason he is even. I do find it odd you don't think we should not judge Perunovich for having watched him in 26 NHL games, but you will use the +/- stats of his 39 AHL games you did not watch for your argument?

I am not just saying a top tier PP QB isn't that important, I am showing it with stats. I have shown it based on GF/60 with Krug vs without and Krug's effect on our PP% when he joined the team. Either way, the positive impact is less than the negative impact he has 5-on-5. And Perunovich is worse in both repsects.

A PP QB is one player on a 5 man unit. The best PP last year was Edmonton followed by Toronto and Tampa. Those teams have great forwards not great PP QB. Makar, Fox, Karlsson, Quinn Hughes. Those are good PP QBs, but their teams aren't in the top 5, they are between 6-11, and SJ was near the bottom of the league despite having Karlsson.

How many 3rd pairing, PP specialists can you name, since they are so important? Looking at the guys who got the most PP points last year, almost all of them are top pair guys who get 20+ minutes a night. Barrie maybe could be considered a PP speicalist, but he got 22+ last year. Tony Deangelo is bad defensively, but he also got 22 minutes a night. Calen Addison and Durzi are the only D last year with more PP points and less Total TOI/GM than Krug. Almost every other team uses a 22+ ATOI D as their PP1. Even Durzi wasn't PP1, Doughty was. So are we emulating Minnesotta for our strategy?

 

[HighNote]

If the Blues come out and show that last year was a fluke, does that make front office decide to keep Kap, Vrana, Scandella, and Bortuzzo for a playoff run?

I sure hope not. The only player I'd consider keeping would be Vrana depending on his play this year and how much he'd be asking for. He fits into our age group nicely and having a sniper like him is valuable. But if a team is offering a really good deal for him at the deadline, it's going to be hard to say no. All those other guys I would trade even if we're in a playoff spot. We're simply not a contender even if we overperform and I'd hate to waste bringing in potential assets just because we sit in or sit close to a playoff spot at the deadline. We are still a work in progress, and I'd rather not hamper that progress in favor of a few extra playoff games.

I do agree with you that there is a wide range of outcomes for this team, though. I have no idea where we'll end up. If I had to guess, I'd say we end up similar to last season, somewhere from 8th worst to 12th worst. It's going to be tough getting into that bottom 5 or 6, there are some really bad teams out there and we have too many solid individual pieces to keep up with their suckage. Maybe with key injuries and if our defense picks right back up from where they left off, then we might be able to. On the opposite end, I could see us sneaking into the playoffs if everything goes right. And I agree that January is the earliest we'll know what category we're most likely going to end up in.

 

[BlueDream]

I disagree that it will take until January to know where we’re at. We should find out very quickly whether the team defense is any different, and whether the team is any good.

We’ll know by Thanksgiving if it’s gonna be a struggle to make the playoffs or not. That’s typically the point where most teams are showing their true identity (besides the 2019 Blues). We started off 3-8 last season and never recovered from it. I think this season will be very similar. If we start off poorly, it’s unrealistic to expect them to come back from it and change who they are. If we suck by Christmas (and by suck, I mean fighting for the 8th seed or worse) we need to start making calls to start the selling process.

 

[mk80]

If the Blues come out and show that last year was a fluke, does that make front office decide to keep Kap, Vrana, Scandella, and Bortuzzo for a playoff run?

I think for Vrana the long term plan hinges on what he wants in a contract moving forward.

I think Scandella and Kapanen could get dealt if they generate some interesting offers. Bortuzzo is a toss up because I could see him becoming a depth piece for a team at the deadline just as much as I could see him finishing his contract here regardless of how the season plays out.

 

[HighNote]

I disagree that it will take until January to know where we’re at. We should find out very quickly whether the team defense is any different, and whether the team is any good.

We’ll know by Thanksgiving if it’s gonna be a struggle to make the playoffs or not. That’s typically the point where most teams are showing their true identity (besides the 2019 Blues). We started off 3-8 last season and never recovered from it. I think this season will be very similar. If we start off poorly, it’s unrealistic to expect them to come back from it and change who they are. If we suck by Christmas (and by suck, I mean fighting for the 8th seed or worse) we need to start making calls to start the selling process.

Thanksgiving is a decent spot to start predicting if we make the playoffs or not, but that's just breaking things down into two groups. By January, you can start to tell what quarter of the league you're in. I think most of us expect us to miss the playoffs, but aren't sure if that will be bottom 8 or 9th-16th worst.

 

[Snubbed4Vezina]

Marek on the Blues on 32TPs "Thomas-Kyrou-Buchnevich Line looks really, really good." Lets see if they can keep it up.

That line should be great. It's the rest that's the problem.

 

[Bobby Orrtuzzo]

 

[Linkens Mastery]

That line should be great. It's the rest that's the problem.

Also gotta hope Buch and Thomas can stay healthy.

 

[ToastedRavioli]

Possible hot take: Scandella at 50% retained draws in a 3rd rounder at the deadline

 

[Majorityof1]

So reading the quotes, it seems like Perunovich didn't so much make the team as we didn't want to lose him to waivers in case Krug gets traded/injured. Seems like you all were right about his role as envisioned by Army (which I didn't disagree that was Army's vision, I disagreed it was the right vision).

The Parayko comment is what most of us have been saying for years. He is a pure Defensive D who at his best can transition well, but will never put up a ton of points. He just teases us with a bomb shot or skating it cost to cost thru traffic every now and then.

The comment of the kids needing to seize their opportunity could be from any press conference/interview Army has ever given. I think he said the same thing about young players when we made Schenn captain and again when we fired Van Ryn.

 

[stl76]

A

So reading the quotes, it seems like Perunovich didn't so much make the team as we didn't want to lose him to waivers in case Krug gets traded/injured. Seems like you all were right about his role as envisioned by Army (which I didn't disagree that was Army's vision, I disagreed it was the right vision).

The Parayko comment is what most of us have been saying for years. He is a pure Defensive D who at his best can transition well, but will never put up a ton of points. He just teases us with a bomb shot or skating it cost to cost thru traffic every now and then.

The comment of the kids needing to seize their opportunity could be from any press conference/interview Army has ever given. I think he said the same thing about young players when we made Schenn captain and again when we fired Van Ryn.

Are you (or anyone) able to post any relevant tweets here? I tried going to JRs page but I don’t have an account so it’s all jumbled tweets about trading Tarasenko or the Blues winning the cup…

EDIT: nevermind, just say jura’s post

training camp 2023

what are the odds the Blues are much better than everybody thinks? - The 4 lines look pretty solid, especially the top line which could be elite. - The addition of Hayes looks very underrated. He’s a very a solid big bodied player - Binny can be elite, just cant over work him - Kyrou is...

forums.hfboards.com

 

[Bye Bye Blueston]

not sure if it was posted, but heim is (presumably) heading back to switzerland after his contract was mutually terminated. always seemed like a strange signing and he didn't really impress at either rookie camps or training camp. i think he would have been fine in ahl but i think it was clear that he never looked like nhl player and he not surprisingly preferred to be in Europe than AHL.

 

[Majorityof1]

First Blues game is tonight. How excited is everyone relative to usually opening nights?

I am a good bit more subdued. I think it's for two big reasons.

1) No exciting new players - We got Hayes. Sunny is back, but he is a step slower than when he left. The youngsters are mostly chilling in Springdale. There isn't any players to pin our hopes on coming in and being great.

2) Midling outlook - We are going to try to be competitive but will most likely miss the playoffs. We can't see the future of our team because we have mostly vets outside a few young guys who project bottom-pair/6. I also don't have the eternal hope of a new year, new cup chance. It's all just meh to me

There are a few interesting things. Will vrana play his way into our long term plan? Will the new coaches fix the defense? How good can the top line be? Is Hofer a future HOFer? But that is all almost academic curiosity more than fan excitement.

What about all of you? Are you feeling the "meh"s like me?

 

[Frenzy31]

I am looking forward to the season as I always do.

I am not expecting a chance to win it all, but really, outside of 2018 on, I usually walk into the season this way. We got a bit spoiled with expecting to be a contender for the past 5 seasons.

Depending on the defensive adjustments, I think this team will look better then early season last year. That 1st 20 game stretch....

 

[Bye Bye Blueston]

First Blues game is tonight. How excited is everyone relative to usually opening nights?

I am a good bit more subdued. I think it's for two big reasons.

1) No exciting new players - We got Hayes. Sunny is back, but he is a step slower than when he left. The youngsters are mostly chilling in Springdale. There isn't any players to pin our hopes on coming in and being great.

2) Midling outlook - We are going to try to be competitive but will most likely miss the playoffs. We can't see the future of our team because we have mostly vets outside a few young guys who project bottom-pair/6. I also don't have the eternal hope of a new year, new cup chance. It's all just meh to me

There are a few interesting things. Will vrana play his way into our long term plan? Will the new coaches fix the defense? How good can the top line be? Is Hofer a future HOFer? But that is all almost academic curiosity more than fan excitement.

What about all of you? Are you feeling the "meh"s like me?

Im excited to have blues hockey back, but this is first season in years where I don’t feel like with a few breaks we can contend. So it’s a bit muted. Because last year was so terrible. but as long as this team plays harder, cares more, I’m okay with them not being good so long as they show the pride that we expect from them.

 

[Stupendous Yappi]

I had hoped maybe Dean was going to crack the roster, but not until injuries or after the trade deadline.

For Armstrong to openly acknowledge the team is fighting to finish in the top half tells me it could get ugly this season.

Between getting older and moving to Eastern time, I’m going to be watching most games the next day. I feel like I’m losing touch with the team to some degree. I don’t really see where the pleasant forecast-defying surprise will come from.

 

[Bobby Orrtuzzo]

First Blues game is tonight. How excited is everyone relative to usually opening nights?

I am a good bit more subdued. I think it's for two big reasons.

1) No exciting new players - We got Hayes. Sunny is back, but he is a step slower than when he left. The youngsters are mostly chilling in Springdale. There isn't any players to pin our hopes on coming in and being great.

2) Midling outlook - We are going to try to be competitive but will most likely miss the playoffs. We can't see the future of our team because we have mostly vets outside a few young guys who project bottom-pair/6. I also don't have the eternal hope of a new year, new cup chance. It's all just meh to me

There are a few interesting things. Will vrana play his way into our long term plan? Will the new coaches fix the defense? How good can the top line be? Is Hofer a future HOFer? But that is all almost academic curiosity more than fan excitement.

What about all of you? Are you feeling the "meh"s like me?

Cautiously optimistic is how I’d put it

 

[HighNote]

I don't expect much from the team itself, but I'm excited to watch particular players. The top line should be fun. I'm also curious to see how Vrana, Blais, Neighbours, Toropchenko and Perunovich look. Hofer as well.

I've especially got my eye on Thomas, Blais, and Toropchenko. Thomas because I'm expecting a big season, Blais and Toropchenko because there's a chance they might surprise people and I like watching Blais crunch players.