Prospect Info: 2022 Post-Deadline Devils-Centric Mock Draft 2.0 (thru NJ 2nd round)

[FooteBahl]

What constitutes "the world", though?

I think only McDavid being offered to us would be considered "offering the world".

They said “the world” not the heavens.

 

[glenwo2]

They said “the world” not the heavens.

Yeah..that's true.


so.....Draisatl then?

 

[StevenToddIves]

Also not all 2nd round picks are the same and we have a very early one. The value of those can also depend on the depth of the particular draft, luck with players who fall (we lost out on Aho when CAR grabbed him a spot before us in 2015 for example).

The ~36th pick will more likely than not actually at least play a game in the NHL and it’s a chance to pick up an excellent player.

We haven’t drafted with our own 2nd since 2017 (for Subban & Gusev and those trade trees are dead), and we didn’t do it in 2015 either, I wish people stopped trying to wish this pick away. I need this lol.

As I keep saying, and will continue to say until @Guttersniped completely gets bored of me, 2021 might represent a unique opportunity of 2nd round drafting, in that high-end Russian players could fall. The possibility of a top-10 talent like Miroshnichenko or Perevalov being available, or a top 20 talent like Trikozov is very possible.

Even if those players do not fall, there will be high-upside options for the two biggest areas of Devils need, which are RD (Rinzel, Lamoureux, Warren) and power/interior F (Schaefer, Kulich, Nyman, Kaplan) as well as couple of guys who could potentially fill the void of depth, middle-six Cs (Sapovaliv, Hughes).

The 2022 Devils 2nd rounder has the opportunity to be an absolutely earth-shaking pick for the future of the franchise.

 

[StevenToddIves]

The problem is that you’re talking about these players as if your opinion is fact. Seattle and the others teams who’s picks you questioned certainly see more potential in the players they took than you. They simply view these players differently. But none of those players are surefire NHL players at all. You’re not getting a surefire NHL player in the 2nd round or even late 1st round.

Some of what you’re saying on how you’re view these players looks really bad too and seems to completely ignore how the players have done since the draft. Production isn’t everything at all but…

36th pick Buium: Great pick who’s a surefire NHL player.
Freshmen numbers: 3 goals and 17 points in 37 games.

37th pick Doan: terrible and embarrassing pick. Player worth a 5th round pick.
Freshmen numbers: 12 goals and 37 points in 35 games. Over a point per game and the most productive freshman in NCCA hockey this season. Purely based on production this pick looks great so far.

You're absolutely correct that I am speculating, and writing is as fact.

Buium is a defenseman who is excellent in his own zone, and as such the numbers are less relevant in assessing the picks. Doan has indeed been impressive as a freshman, but I still say if his last name were "Smith" he would've lasted at least 2 more rounds.

 

[StevenToddIves]

What constitutes "the world", though?

I think only McDavid being offered to us would be considered "offering the world".

Again, we can play out this hypothetical forever. Let's say the lottery is today, and the Devils win and everything else stays the same. No team would need or want Wright more than Arizona, who would pick 2nd overall. Arizona also has the 30th and 32nd overall picks (currently) in the 1st round. If Arizona were to offer the #2 and #30 pick for #1? The Devils should absolutely do this. The possibility of leaving the draft with Slafkovsky and another first rounder is just maddeningly awesome.

 

[Captain3rdLine]

You're absolutely correct that I am speculating, and writing is as fact.

Buium is a defenseman who is excellent in his own zone, and as such the numbers are less relevant in assessing the picks. Doan has indeed been impressive as a freshman, but I still say if his last name were "Smith" he would've lasted at least 2 more rounds.

Ya didn’t mean to sound like I was comparing Buium’s numbers as a dman. He’s also younger and he’s a great prospect I just don’t think he’s a surefire NHL player. More just wanted to point out how impressive of a season Doan had and we don’t really know if he would’ve lasted that much longer even though his name was definitely a factor in Arizona taking him. If Arizona was confident they could get him later I doubt they would’ve taken him then.

My main point is that every scout and organization has different evaluations of prospects.

 

[StevenToddIves]

Ya didn’t mean to sound like I was comparing Buium’s numbers as a dman. He’s also younger and he’s a great prospect I just don’t think he’s a surefire NHL player. More just wanted to point out how impressive of a season Doan had and we don’t really know if he would’ve lasted that much longer even though his name was definitely a factor in Arizona taking him. If Arizona was confident they could get him later I doubt they would’ve taken him then.

My main point is that every scout and organization has different evaluations of prospects.

If we really want to nitpick, Arizona picked next at #43 overall and took Ilya Fedotov. Fedotov would have been a nice flyer to take in the 7th round. But not when Chibrikov, Stankoven and Raty were all on the board.

 

[Captain3rdLine]

If we really want to nitpick, Arizona picked next at #43 overall and took Ilya Fedotov. Fedotov would have been a nice flyer to take in the 7th round. But not when Chibrikov, Stankoven and Raty were all on the board.

They clearly disagree and see more in him than you. We’ll see how he turns out.

 

[Guttersniped]

Again, we can play out this hypothetical forever. Let's say the lottery is today, and the Devils win and everything else stays the same. No team would need or want Wright more than Arizona, who would pick 2nd overall. Arizona also has the 30th and 32nd overall picks (currently) in the 1st round. If Arizona were to offer the #2 and #30 pick for #1? The Devils should absolutely do this. The possibility of leaving the draft with Slafkovsky and another first rounder is just maddeningly awesome.

You sounded like you were stating facts but I’m pretty sure you can’t see in the future, smart guy.

Just a bunch of scouting and projections based on that, pshaw. It’s almost like… your sharing your own thoughts and opinions?!? (Wait, that can’t be right.)

And you better not lose track of any future NCAA scoring of these prospects or we will call your lame ass on it. Cut out the day drinking and stay on your toes.

 

[StevenToddIves]

You sounded like you were stating facts but I’m pretty sure you can’t see in the future, smart guy.

Just a bunch of scouting and projections based on that, pshaw. It’s almost like… your sharing your own thoughts and opinions?!? (Wait, that can’t be right.)

And you better not lose track of any future NCAA scoring of these prospects or we will call your lame ass on it. Cut out the day drinking and stay on your toes.

Imagination has always been my big problem haha.

 

[Guttersniped]

Imagination has always been my big problem haha.

I personally had my money on day drinking but sure, that too.

 

[StevenToddIves]

They clearly disagree and see more in him than you. We’ll see how he turns out.

I think there's a certain point where we have to draw the line between "they saw a lot in this player" and "this was a bad pick and a bad value".

Arizona had just drafted two RWs with their two picks in Guenther and Doan. Taking a third in Fedotov -- when the team had desperate needs at C and LD and RD -- is baffling and shows no vision.

Fedotov's consensus ranking was probably in the 125-150 range. Now, I get that "consensus ranking" needs to be taken with a grain of salt -- if your scouts are in love with a player ranked #80 and you're picking at #50, I have no problem with the pick. But there is no way on earth you can convince me -- from what I know about NHL scouting -- that an entire room of NHL scouts agreed that Ilya Fedotov was better than Chibrikov AND Stankoven AND Raty AND Morrow AND Knies AND Iorio and so on and so on.

The pick absolutely reeked -- reeked! -- of a new GM going up to his scouting staff and saying: "and now you get this pick, and then you get the next one, and then you get the next one..."

Though this is admittedly speculative, the fact that Arizona's next 6 picks were 6 players from separate scouting regions -- all drafted well ahead of consensus -- would certainly seem to support my argument.

It's just poor drafting. There's no "they believed in this player" because there's no coherence, strategy or competency in the Arizona front office.

 

[StevenToddIves]

I personally had my money on day drinking but sure, that too.

No no, I'm a night drinker. But whoooooo boy can this guy put 'em back. I don't know how I'm still in top physical condition. I think I'm like the formaldehyde pig in your junior high biology class.

 

[Captain3rdLine]

I think there's a certain point where we have to draw the line between "they saw a lot in this player" and "this was a bad pick and a bad value".

Arizona had just drafted two RWs with their two picks in Guenther and Doan. Taking a third in Fedotov -- when the team had desperate needs at C and LD and RD -- is baffling and shows no vision.

Fedotov's consensus ranking was probably in the 125-150 range. Now, I get that "consensus ranking" needs to be taken with a grain of salt -- if your scouts are in love with a player ranked #80 and you're picking at #50, I have no problem with the pick. But there is no way on earth you can convince me -- from what I know about NHL scouting -- that an entire room of NHL scouts agreed that Ilya Fedotov was better than Chibrikov AND Stankoven AND Raty AND Morrow AND Knies AND Iorio and so on and so on.

The pick absolutely reeked -- reeked! -- of a new GM going up to his scouting staff and saying: "and now you get this pick, and then you get the next one, and then you get the next one..."

Though this is admittedly speculative, the fact that Arizona's next 6 picks were 6 players from separate scouting regions -- all drafted well ahead of consensus -- would certainly seem to support my argument.

It's just poor drafting. There's no "they believed in this player" because there's no coherence, strategy or competency in the Arizona front office.

This is all so speculative and more likely untrue than true. It doesn’t mean all of their scouts loved him. More often than not there are scouts that don’t agree with the pick their team makes. Every single scout is gonna have a different opinion. Maybe it was only one or two who had a strong say that really liked him and than the GM did as well. It’s a group effort where certain people have more pull than others and the GM pretty much has the final say.

In terms of the position, one he plays his offside but also at the point they are at in a rebuild essentially they’re probably not and probably don’t need to be too worried about filling certain positions. They need to fill up the cabinets and they have a lot more picks in the coming years (3 1st and 4 2nds next draft) to continue doing so and fill in different positions. If he was the guy they liked the most as an organization and they feel strongly about him as a prospect than why not make that pick.

Now this doesn’t mean the pick won’t turn out to be a bad pick and bad value but Arizona clearly didn’t believe so at the time of the selection and we’ll see how he turns out.

 

[StevenToddIves]

This is all so speculative and more likely untrue than true. It doesn’t mean all of their scouts loved him. More often than not there are scouts that don’t agree with the pick their team makes. Every single scout is gonna have a different opinion. Maybe it was only one or two who had a strong say that really liked him and than the GM did as well. It’s a group effort where certain people have more pull than others and the GM pretty much has the final say.

In terms of the position, one he plays his offside but also at the point they are at in a rebuild essentially they’re probably not and probably don’t need to be too worried about filling certain positions. They need to fill up the cabinets and they have a lot more picks in the coming years to continue doing so and fill in different positions. If he was the guy they liked the most as an organization and they feel strongly about him as a prospect than why not make that pick.

Now this doesn’t mean the pick won’t turn out to be a bad pick and bad value but Arizona clearly didn’t believe so at the time of the selection and we’ll see how he turns out.

I agree I'm speculating, of course. Someone has to. Because -- again -- there is no way on the planet anyone who knows the 2021 draft prospects and how scouting works can possibly fathom any way a room full of scouts, an NHL GM and an NHL AGM can agree that Ilya Fedotov is a better prospect and fit for the Arizona Coyotes than Morrow, Stankoven, Chibrikov, Raty, etc etc. There is zero chance -- and this is not speculation.

So, we simply must speculate. Why would Arizona take a completely unheralded RW after taking two other RWs -- at #43 overall -- when there is not a single draft ranking we can find where Fedotov is ranked as a top 100 pick? This was a player who did not produce in the MHL, and for whom you could not read a scouting report without the words "poor decision making" written in there somewhere.

I've been studying and writing about the draft for several years now. There are always surprises on draft day. There are teams who draft with baffling "identity" rankings, such as Ottawa always coveting big, physical North Americans above all else. But I've also spoken with several scouts and NHL executives and many agree that good drafting comes from team coherence among scouts, and bad drafting is often attributable to a weaker GM giving scouts their own picks without joint conference scrutinizing and analyzing to the pick.

Looking at Arizona's draft last year, it's pretty clear-cut. The first pick was the best available player (Guenther). The second pick was a PR pom-pom (Doan). And every other pick was given to separate scouting regions, and all of them were completely off the board. So again, I speculate because what else is there to do? To me, it's easier to make an educated guess than to try to rationalize that anyone thought Fedotov was the BOP at #43 or that Martinsen-Liljeberg was the BOP at #107.

It's an intriguing debate either way, and I appreciate you playing devil's advocate and calling out my speculations. However, ultimately you couldn't convince me a room full of NHL scouts and executives were like "thank the stars Fedotov is still here!" at #43 and he was on top of a draft board conferred upon by the entire scouting team, you just can't.

 

[Captain3rdLine]

I agree I'm speculating, of course. Someone has to. Because -- again -- there is no way on the planet anyone who knows the 2021 draft prospects and how scouting works can possibly fathom any way a room full of scouts, an NHL GM and an NHL AGM can agree that Ilya Fedotov is a better prospect and fit for the Arizona Coyotes than Morrow, Stankoven, Chibrikov, Raty, etc etc. There is zero chance -- and this is not speculation.

So, we simply must speculate. Why would Arizona take a completely unheralded RW after taking two other RWs -- at #43 overall -- when there is not a single draft ranking we can find where Fedotov is ranked as a top 100 pick? This was a player who did not produce in the MHL, and for whom you could not read a scouting report without the words "poor decision making" written in there somewhere.

I've been studying and writing about the draft for several years now. There are always surprises on draft day. There are teams who draft with baffling "identity" rankings, such as Ottawa always coveting big, physical North Americans above all else. But I've also spoken with several scouts and NHL executives and many agree that good drafting comes from team coherence among scouts, and bad drafting is often attributable to a weaker GM giving scouts their own picks without joint conference scrutinizing and analyzing to the pick.

Looking at Arizona's draft last year, it's pretty clear-cut. The first pick was the best available player (Guenther). The second pick was a PR pom-pom (Doan). And every other pick was given to separate scouting regions, and all of them were completely off the board. So again, I speculate because what else is there to do? To me, it's easier to make an educated guess than to try to rationalize that anyone thought Fedotov was the BOP at #43 or that Martinsen-Liljeberg was the BOP at #107.

It's an intriguing debate either way, and I appreciate you playing devil's advocate and calling out my speculations. However, ultimately you couldn't convince me a room full of NHL scouts and executives were like "thank the stars Fedotov is still here!" at #43 and he was on top of a draft board conferred upon by the entire scouting team, you just can't.

You’re completely ignoring that a room full of scouts doesn’t have to believe he is the best pick. As I already said all it takes is 1 or 2 and probably the GM to like him and decide he’s the right pick. I can guarentee that a room full of scouts rarely if ever comes to a consensus as to who the team should pick so I’m not sure why you keep talking about it like it works like that. That last paragraph you wrote is just ridiculous because it’s exactly what I’ve said multiple times doesn’t happen. This isn’t like some jury where everyone has to agree and come to the same verdict. All it takes is a couple people banging the table and really believing and seeing something in a prospect and the people with the final say trusting that person/people and/or really liking that prospect.

 

[StevenToddIves]

You’re completely ignoring that a room full of scouts doesn’t have to believe he is the best pick. As I already said all it takes is 1 or 2 and probably the GM to like him and decide he’s the right pick. I can guarentee that a room full of scouts rarely if ever comes to a consensus as to who the team should pick so I’m not sure why you keep talking about it like it works like that. That last paragraph you wrote is just ridiculous because it’s exactly what I’ve said multiple times doesn’t happen. This isn’t like some jury where everyone has to agree and come to the same verdict. All it takes is a couple people banging the table and really believing and seeing something in a prospect and the people with the final say trusting that person/people and/or really liking that prospect.

... or, one scout "given a guy", and that's his guy. This is what I'm speculating.

 

[Captain3rdLine]

... or, one scout "given a guy", and that's his guy. This is what I'm speculating.

It doesn’t mean that he’s just giving that one scout the pick like it’s a one person decision.

Imagine it like this. You’re a respected NHL scout. There’s a player who the consensus ranks outside of the top 100 but you really see something in him and think he’s a top 30-40 prospect in the draft and think there’s a good good chance he’ll develop into a good player. You pump this prospects tires at draft meetings and tell the GM and others what you see and him and that he can be good. Maybe another scout or two agree with you and see what you see or at least partially agree that he’s underrated by the consensus. And then the GM goes and watches him and likes what he sees and thinks you could be right. The #43 pick comes up and you’re saying we should take this guy and it will turn out. The GM trusts you as a scout and liked what he saw as well and there’s a couple others that like him so he decides to pick that player. It doesn’t mean every single other person in that room agrees with the pick, thinks it’s the best pick, or likes the player. It could often just be a couple guys and the GM that like him.

And there’s probably scouts that liked some of the consensus guys more but maybe the GM and some of the scouts just weren’t as excited by those guys or no one was really pushing hard or sold on what some of those guys would be as players.

 

[StevenToddIves]

It doesn’t mean that he’s just giving that one scout the pick like it’s a one person decision.

Imagine it like this. You’re a respected NHL scout. There’s a player who the consensus ranks outside of the top 100 but you really see something in him and think he’s a top 30-40 prospect in the draft and think there’s a good good chance he’ll develop into a good player. You pump this prospects tires at draft meetings and tell the GM and others what you see and him and that he can be good. Maybe another scout or two agree with you and see what you see or at least partially agree that he’s underrated by the consensus. And then the GM goes and watches him and likes what he sees and thinks you could be right. The #43 pick comes up and you’re saying we should take this guy and it will turn out. The GM trusts you as a scout and liked what he saw as well and there’s a couple others that like him so he decides to pick that player. It doesn’t mean every single other person in that room agrees with the pick, thinks it’s the best pick, or likes the player. It could often just be a couple guys and the GM that like him.

And there’s probably scouts that liked some of the consensus guys more but maybe the GM and some of the scouts just weren’t as excited by those guys or no one was really pushing hard or sold on what some of those guys would be as players.

Again, you could be right. But if so, it again proves that Arizona has an awful scouting staff and poor team leadership. Because someone's got to step up and say -- hey, there's no way this kid is gone in the next 75 picks. We have another 2nd rounder and then two picks in the 4th. Let's take a kid with more upside and lower risk here.

There's a reason why Arizona has been a bottom feeder for years and still has one of the poorest talent cores in the NHL. But I suppose the initial debate was about the % a draft pick has a chance to succeed in the early second round. I'd probably say that if it's Arizona? It's maybe a 5% chance your #43 overall pick makes it, but if you're Tampa it's more like 95%.

 

[Captain3rdLine]

Again, you could be right. But if so, it again proves that Arizona has an awful scouting staff and poor team leadership. Because someone's got to step up and say -- hey, there's no way this kid is gone in the next 75 picks. We have another 2nd rounder and then two picks in the 4th. Let's take a kid with more upside and lower risk here.

There's a reason why Arizona has been a bottom feeder for years and still has one of the poorest talent cores in the NHL. But I suppose the initial debate was about the % a draft pick has a chance to succeed in the early second round. I'd probably say that if it's Arizona? It's maybe a 5% chance your #43 overall pick makes it, but if you're Tampa it's more like 95%.

I don’t necessarily agree because there’s always a chance someone else likes him too and takes him and these teams have a better feel of that then anyone on these boards. And while better drafting teams are definitely more likely to have success with their picks their is luck involved and the difference is definitely not that drastic. There’s no way a high 2nd round pick by Tampa has a 95% chance of succeeding. Not even close. Tampa has had some great picks but take one look at their recent history and you’ll see that it is definitely significantly lower than that.

Let’s look at their recent picks somewhat in the vicinity of what we’re talking about (2nd round and late 1st).

2019 #27- Nolan Foote, is still young and could turn out and he was a big piece in a big trade for them but at 21.5 years of age he isn’t in the NHL and he isn’t exactly tearing it up in the AHL on a very good team.

2018 #59 Fortier, still youngish as well. 0.5 ppg player in the AHL at 22. Played 10 NHL games with 1 goal in those games.

2017 #48 Volkov, 24 going on 25 years old.
Played 46 games in 2 seasons and put up 14 points and is now in KHL.

2016 #27 Howden, bottom 6 NHL player who has played 225 NHL games with 69 points over the past 4 seasons.

2016 #37 Hajek, 24 year old defensmen who has played 93 games (16 this season with 1 point)

2016 #44 Katchouk, has played his first 47 games this season with 6 points.

2016 #58 Raddysh, has played 62 games all this season with 17 points.


I could keep going but I think you get the picture. Even a team that is considered to be a good drafting team doesn’t succeed close to 95% of time in the 2nd round or even late 1st. How much they really do succeed completely depends on what you would actually consider succeeding. There isn’t one top 6 or top 4 player out of those 7 players.
Howden is the only full time NHL player there but 1-2 of the others could still become that.

 

[StevenToddIves]

I don’t necessarily agree because there’s always a chance someone else likes him too and takes him and these teams have a better feel of that then anyone on these boards. And while better drafting teams are definitely more likely to have success with their picks their is luck involved and the difference is definitely not that drastic. There’s no way a high 2nd round pick by Tampa has a 95% chance of succeeding. Not even close. Tampa has had some great picks but take one look at their recent history and you’ll that it is definitely significantly lower than that.

Let’s look at their recent picks somewhat in the vicinity of what we’re talking about (2nd round and late 1st).

2019 #27- Nolan Foote, is still young and could turn out and he was a big piece in a big trade for them but at 21.5 years of age he isn’t in the NHL and he isn’t exactly tearing it up in the AHL on a very good team.

2018 #59 Fortier, still youngish as well. 0.5 ppg player in the AHL at 22. Played 10 NHL games with 1 goal in those games.

2017 #48 Volkov, 24 going on 25 years old.
Played 46 games in 2 seasons and put up 14 points and is now in KHL.

2016 #27 Howden, bottom 6 NHL player who has played 225 NHL games with 69 points over the past 4 seasons.

2016 #37 Hajek, 24 year old defensmen who has played 93 games (16 this season with 1 point)

2016 #44 Katchouk, has played his first 47 games this season with 6 points.

2016 #58 Raddysh, has played 62 games all this season with 17 points.


I could keep going but I think you get the picture. Even a team that is considered to be a good drafting team doesn’t succeed close to 95% of time in the 2nd round or even late 1st. How much they really do succeed completely depends on what you would actually consider succeeding. There isn’t one top 6 or top 4 player out of those 7 players.
Howden is the only full time NHL player there but 1-2 of the others could still become that.

I'm half-kidding with the percentages. But I do think you're being way too nice to the Coyotes front office. I think many people would be shocked if it came out that Arizona's NHL team is run more dysfunctionally than the average dive bar, but that's pretty much what I suspect is going on there.

 

[youryeah]

no hughes for the rest of the season

tank has hit maximum overdrive. improve those odds for slafkovsky!

 

[Captain3rdLine]

no hughes for the rest of the season

tank has hit maximum overdrive. improve those odds for slafkovsky!

All the games tonight are going well for that so far. Except it would be nice if Ottawa and Montreal went to OT.

Crap and the flyer just fell behind now.

 

[StevenToddIves]

Top 3 pick means one of Slafkovsky or Jiricek, folks. And no Jack Hughes means top 3 pick. So, silver lining, I suppose.

 

[Captain3rdLine]

Top 3 pick means one of Slafkovsky or Jiricek, folks. And no Jack Hughes means top 3 pick. So, silver lining, I suppose.

The next 11 days are gonna be huge in terms of where we pick. Buffalo and Detroit are getting to the point where it’s extremely unlikely we catch them especially if Detroit closes out the game they’re leading in right now. Every loss makes catching Chicago (5 ahead) and now Ottawa(4 points ahead) less likely. Philadelphia is only 1 point ahead. We play all 3 of the teams who are 4-5 points behind us in the next 11 days. We lose those games and all the sudden those teams could very easily catch us and put us in a spot where we’re picking 2-4. We win those games and it’s unlikely we finish in the bottom 3 and we’re probably picking around 5-6.

We’re now as close to last as we are to 6th last (OTT) though and we’re closer to 3rd last than 6th last.