Like any draft guru, you guys think you can hit it out of the park with every pick, regardless if it's in the 1st round or 7th round lol. That's not a knock at all but the ratio speaks for itself when looking at how many 2nd rounder actually makes it at the NHL level.
If I can draft a top #10 pick, in the 2nd round, because of health issues... I'm taking him without asking any questions. If his health doesn't pick up (hope to god that won't be the case), it's a risk I'm willing to take knowing that if it does, we aren't hitting a homerun but a grand slam.
I ignore the ratios because bad-drafting teams drag down the good-drafting ones. I mean, we can look at the top few picks of the 2021 2nd round and analyze them as such.
33 BUF W Poltapov: Buffalo swings for the fences with a high-upside offensive winger, which I respect. what I don't respect is he was not the best one available -- Chibrikov was sitting right there. Heck, Edmonton got Petrov in the 6th round, whom I had over Poltapov. And let's not even get into Rashevsky, whom Winnipeg got in the 5th round and already goes in the 2021 1st round in a re-draft. So, an okay pick in theory which was a bit off the mark in actual practice.
34 ANH D Zellweger: the Ducks went for a high-upside offensive defenseman who impressed in tournament play. The pick looks like a big win now, because Zellweger is putting up insane numbers in the WHL. However, this excitement must be tempered by the fact Zellweger is 5'9 and not a particularly impressive skater -- as good as he is in the WHL, will it translate against players far faster and stronger than him? Still, must be considered a very good pick at the moment.
35 SEA D Evans: a bit baffling, as the Kraken went with an overage defenseman with a pretty good 3rd pairing floor as a mostly stay-at-home guy with some puck skills. Very conservative pick from an expansion team.
36 DET D Buium: this was, in typical Yzerman fashion, an outstanding pick. Buium is huge, physical and possesses high-end offensive skill. The risk here is that Buium is an average skater at best. But Buium is a fairly typical 2nd round pick, in that he combines many first-round qualities with one, big BUT.
37 ARI RW Doan: an embarrassing pick from an embarrassment of a franchise. Reeling over the PR disaster of picking one of the worst human beings in hockey history with Mitch Miller as their top pick in 2020, the Coyotes think they can make it all better by taking the son of their most popular player ever. The problem is, Doan was probably worth a 5th round pick, talent-wise. Pure nepotism and no vision here from a franchise desperate for high-end talent, which they passed up on in order to high-five each other for the cameras.
38 Vegas: D Chayka: an excellent pick of a player with all the tools to be a 1st round pick but who was inconsistent in terms of performance in his draft-eligible season. This is almost the definitive 2nd round pick. There is risk, sure -- but if it pans out Vegas could have a 20+ minute, all-situations defender.
39 OTT: W Ostapchuk: a typical pick from another clueless franchise, Ottawa takes a "big strong Canadian kid" they could've easily had in the 5th round despite the fact that he's not all that good at hockey.
So out of the 7 teams to start the first round, this is essentially what we saw:
1 team playing it safe because they were desperate for NHL bodies (SEA)
2 teams swinging for the fences at high risk (BUF, ANH)
2 teams making godawful picks to bolster their philosophies which have been proven time and time again to not work (ARI, OTT)
2 teams with very strong managements making outstanding picks (DET, VEG)
So, I have no idea what the % odds are of a pick in the #33-#39 range making the NHL. But those odds must be mitigated that 2 teams basically picked kids based with 0% scouting acumen. Out of the other 5? I think Seattle accomplished what they set out to -- a strong chance of an NHL player, but a supporting one at best. I think Buium and Chayka are pretty surefire NHLers, and I think it's still a coin flip with the Buffalo/Anaheim high-upside picks.