Prospect Info: 2022 Post-Deadline Devils-Centric Mock Draft 2.0 (thru NJ 2nd round)

Hisch13r

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Someone(a poster) named "David Conte" over at allaboutthejersey had this down as his top 5 :

1. Shane Wright, C Kingston Frontenacs (OHL): While the gap may have tightened, make no mistake, this is still the Shane Wright draft.

2. Joakim Kemell, LW, JYP (Liiga): Has finally returned after missing more than a month due to a shoulder issue. Here’s hoping he can regain the touch that saw him become Liiga’s leading scorer 18 games into the season.

3. Logan Cooley, C, USNTDP: Plays with pace, passion and production. Has improved steadily throughout the season and projects to continue trending up.

4. Juraj Slafkovsky, LW, TPS Turku (Liiga): Has all the tools at his disposal, but there is some concern about the numbers. Liiga numbers are typically predictive of NHL success and his are lacking (one goal, four points in 21 games). Having said that, he made Slovakia’s Olympic team as a 17-year-old.


I don't know much about Kemell (maybe Steven talked about him and I missed that) but Cooley above Slaf?

Cooley’s the most common #2 on lists. Kemell that that high is just lol stuff
 

Guadana

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My wish list would be
Slalkovsky
Jiricek
Gauthier
Nemic
Yeah, great list, absolutely in my sense.

Morrow was one of my players for 29th pick. Raty was too. It could be much easier for now to have Morrow in the depth chart. I like Slafkovsky more than any player, but if we will have a shot on him and Jiricek(3rd pick, Arizona taked Cooley by their second), what Devils need to do? We can't close our eyes on defense, we will never win a playoff series with how it is going on for now. And I think I would take Juraj, but it is easier to take with Morrow in the prospect pool. But we don't have him.
Its pretty annoying how many players Carolina did draft I did want to draft.

Anyway if Devils will draft in top 6 - I will be happy enough(only if we will not draft Savoie, Geekie or Lambert).
 

Unknown Caller

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Cooley’s the most common #2 on lists. Kemell that that high is just lol stuff

Kemell that high is perfectly normal. He’s in the same tier is Wright/Nemec/Cooley/Slafkovsky, and an argument can be made for him to go above every single one of those guys.
 

evnted

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Yep, like I said -- the bazillion dollar question. I'm not sure if we have any doctors on the Devils boards, but I asked an anesthesiologist friend and she said that Hodgkin's could have certainly affected Miro's play negatively long before it was diagnosed. So, I'm going with that.
this is an interesting perspective and something i hadnt considered. pretty much since i started looking at the 2022 kids i was never that blown away by him despite the high rankings he originally had. miro definitely checked all the boxes looking at pure tools but it seemed like his application of them was strikingly inconsistent. now i wouldnt say this alone had any alarm bells going off for me, its not that uncommon, but it also felt like he could really mentally drop out of plays (even with the puck at times! some rushes it felt like he would gain the zone and then just give up on the play and take some bum shot from nowhere) and i couldnt explain why this was happening. hope the kid makes a full recovery and we figure out that so many of these concerns were attributed to his health, would be an amazing story of perseverance to still see him become an impact NHLer...especially if it was with us lol
 

forceten

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My concern about Miro is two fold :

1. Sanctions potentially impacting his treatment (I hope not, but…)
2. Two words: Adrian Foster
 

Guttersniped

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Yeah because he rode a sky high SH% to start the year. He doesn’t belong in that group.

Kemell’s points completely dried up after he came back from shoulder injury, after being out for over a little more than a month.

He came back in December and had zero points (including assists) for 14 games after having 12G and 6A in 11 of his first 16 games.

He was also pointless in his to two U20 games, which is another sign he was not right since Finland curb-stomped Austria in one of those games. He finally picked up a few points in three games near the end, 3G 2A.

I’m not personally that much into Kemell, and not so sure what kind of scorer he projects as in the NHL, but he had the best season of the Finnish kids in U20 in 2020-21. It’s not wrong to be high on him or something.

Kemell was on JYP, which was 12th (out of 15) in GF. His 12 goals was tied for 3rd most on his team and his G/GP was higher than the guys the other three top scorers. His team sucked. Which is likely why he got to play more but he wasn’t going to get a lot of assists with this crew.

Lambert wasn’t in the U20 that year because he blew it up in 2019-20 and played in Liiga, and he was more productive last season than this one. Lambert is a puzzle of course lol.
 
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StevenToddIves

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Someone(a poster) named "David Conte" over at allaboutthejersey had this down as his top 5 :

1. Shane Wright, C Kingston Frontenacs (OHL): While the gap may have tightened, make no mistake, this is still the Shane Wright draft.

2. Joakim Kemell, LW, JYP (Liiga): Has finally returned after missing more than a month due to a shoulder issue. Here’s hoping he can regain the touch that saw him become Liiga’s leading scorer 18 games into the season.

3. Logan Cooley, C, USNTDP: Plays with pace, passion and production. Has improved steadily throughout the season and projects to continue trending up.

4. Juraj Slafkovsky, LW, TPS Turku (Liiga): Has all the tools at his disposal, but there is some concern about the numbers. Liiga numbers are typically predictive of NHL success and his are lacking (one goal, four points in 21 games). Having said that, he made Slovakia’s Olympic team as a 17-year-old.


I don't know much about Kemell (maybe @StevenToddIves talked about him and I missed that) but Cooley above Slaf?
I'll put it simply without getting into details or putting down Kemell, whom I very much like as a prospect:

If you have Kemell over Slafkovsky, you're one of those pseudo-draft rankers who doesn't watch the kids play. You just look at the numbers and other people's rankings. It's that simple. There is a very large gap between Slafkovsky and Kemell, and if you're and NHL GM taking Kemell over Slafkovsky you're going to be looking for a new job in a few years.
 

StevenToddIves

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Cooley’s the most common #2 on lists. Kemell that that high is just lol stuff
I feel by the year's end Slafkovsky will be a universal #2 and have a couple #1 rankings; it's not inconceivable, especially from newer draft bureaus who want to get themselves some attention. But I think we can certainly say that the gap between Wright and Slafkovsky is slimmer than the gap between Slafkovsky and Kemell. Slafkovsky's recent play in Liiga -- since actually getting some ice time (which people who don't watch the games but just the stats may not be hip to)-- has been simply phenomenal. Slafkovsky is a line driver with the rare ability to do it all himself -- win battles for pucks, create his own space, then exploit that space for high-danger scoring chances. Kemell is a very good finisher with a decent all-around game, but he's a finisher. I'd say he's a lesser version of Holtz or Quinn in their draft years, though he's pretty close behind them.

Cooley is very good, but I don't think it's clear cut that he's a better forward than Nazar or Gauthier for the US-NTDP. Cooley's ridiculous skating makes you want him to be the best of those guys, but when I watch the film I actually start to feel that Nazar might be the best player of the three.
 

Buck Dancer

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As much as I love me some Trikozov, I have to say -- as a guy who probably watches more MHL than most well-known draft-writers -- Perevalov is even better. You should check him out, he's downright nasty. Elite hands, shot and vision and one of the best compete levels in the entire draft class.

But I'm curious what you think about the draft's bazillion dollar question. You're Tom Fitzgerald, you're picking in the 2nd round at #36 or #37 overall, and Ivan Miroshnichenko is available. What do you do?

Is there a chance that his illness is serious enough it threatens his entire career? Yes. But is there a chance his early season inconsistencies are attributable to the disease, and the player you'll be getting when he's 100% healthy is the player from 2020-21 who looked like he could challenge Shane Wright for the #1 overall selection? Also, yes.

I can't say I've come to a decision, but I'm curious what you -- and other knowledgable posters -- would do in this situation. Because Miro's upside is absolutely ridiculous. And it's a 2nd round pick, right?
With our prospect pool and the talent level we have in our pipeline, there's absolutely no doubt in my mind that I would pick him. The odds of a 2nd round pick becoming a regular player is pretty slim, so I'd swing for the fences.

To me, the choice is fairly easy.
 

StevenToddIves

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With our prospect pool and the talent level we have in our pipeline, there's absolutely no doubt in my mind that I would pick him. The odds of a 2nd round pick becoming a regular player is pretty slim, so I'd swing for the fences.

To me, the choice is fairly easy.
Not to contradict you, but I hate the "odds of XXX pick making it" arguments. If I'm an NHL GM, I'm going to have a top-notch scouting team and do some scouting myself. If I'm not completely confident and certain my 2nd round pick is going to be a regular NHLer with upside, I'm not drafting him.

The only exception to this would be a guy like Miroshnichenko, whose health concerns are serious enough that they may, in fact, hamper his NHL career. But the flip side is, if Miro makes a 100% recovery? You could have a 90+ point power forward with your 2nd round pick.
 

StevenToddIves

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Slafkovsky is Kakko 2.0. Big skater with hustle who can't produce and lacks enough IQ. It would be a huge mistake drafting him.
This is honestly the worst take I have seen on here in quite some time.

Nothing personal, it just is.

These two players, if you watch them, have so little in common it's almost absurd. Kakko was more of a traditional north/south forward with some east/west skill to his game. He was a very good two-way player with some physicality, but he was rarely a line-driver.

Slafkovsky is a mix of size and sublime skill. The argument can be made he is the best passer in the entire draft class, and his hands are up there too. The one question about his offense was his shot, which was considered by many to be Kakko's foremost strength. Slafkovsky has recently answered these questions, but still. Slafkovsky's IQ is elite. Kakko's was good, but not in Slafkovsky's stratosphere.

Kakko played the game from the boards to the crease, which is to say he was very strong in puck battles, and then he would funnel to the net, whether he held onto the puck or dished off to a teammate. Slafkovsky plays from the blueline in, utilizing the entire offense zone, which can do with confidence because of his elite puckhandling and passing vision.

The players are not similar at all, and watching them for one period would indicate this. It's just a poor, knee-jerk take, sorry to be so blunt.
 

Buck Dancer

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Not to contradict you, but I hate the "odds of XXX pick making it" arguments. If I'm an NHL GM, I'm going to have a top-notch scouting team and do some scouting myself. If I'm not completely confident and certain my 2nd round pick is going to be a regular NHLer with upside, I'm not drafting him.

The only exception to this would be a guy like Miroshnichenko, whose health concerns are serious enough that they may, in fact, hamper his NHL career. But the flip side is, if Miro makes a 100% recovery? You could have a 90+ point power forward with your 2nd round pick.
Like any draft guru, you guys think you can hit it out of the park with every pick, regardless if it's in the 1st round or 7th round lol. That's not a knock at all but the ratio speaks for itself when looking at how many 2nd rounder actually makes it at the NHL level.

If I can draft a top #10 pick, in the 2nd round, because of health issues... I'm taking him without asking any questions. If his health doesn't pick up (hope to god that won't be the case), it's a risk I'm willing to take knowing that if it does, we aren't hitting a homerun but a grand slam.
 

Captain3rdLine

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Slafkovsky is Kakko 2.0. Big skater with hustle who can't produce and lacks enough IQ. It would be a huge mistake drafting him.
This is a really stupid take. And Kappo Kakko actually produced very well is in draft season. Slafkovsky has recently started producing after struggling to early on. Slafkovsky’s IQ is easily one of his biggest strengths and they are very different players.
 
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StevenToddIves

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Like any draft guru, you guys think you can hit it out of the park with every pick, regardless if it's in the 1st round or 7th round lol. That's not a knock at all but the ratio speaks for itself when looking at how many 2nd rounder actually makes it at the NHL level.

If I can draft a top #10 pick, in the 2nd round, because of health issues... I'm taking him without asking any questions. If his health doesn't pick up (hope to god that won't be the case), it's a risk I'm willing to take knowing that if it does, we aren't hitting a homerun but a grand slam.
I ignore the ratios because bad-drafting teams drag down the good-drafting ones. I mean, we can look at the top few picks of the 2021 2nd round and analyze them as such.

33 BUF W Poltapov: Buffalo swings for the fences with a high-upside offensive winger, which I respect. what I don't respect is he was not the best one available -- Chibrikov was sitting right there. Heck, Edmonton got Petrov in the 6th round, whom I had over Poltapov. And let's not even get into Rashevsky, whom Winnipeg got in the 5th round and already goes in the 2021 1st round in a re-draft. So, an okay pick in theory which was a bit off the mark in actual practice.

34 ANH D Zellweger: the Ducks went for a high-upside offensive defenseman who impressed in tournament play. The pick looks like a big win now, because Zellweger is putting up insane numbers in the WHL. However, this excitement must be tempered by the fact Zellweger is 5'9 and not a particularly impressive skater -- as good as he is in the WHL, will it translate against players far faster and stronger than him? Still, must be considered a very good pick at the moment.

35 SEA D Evans: a bit baffling, as the Kraken went with an overage defenseman with a pretty good 3rd pairing floor as a mostly stay-at-home guy with some puck skills. Very conservative pick from an expansion team.

36 DET D Buium: this was, in typical Yzerman fashion, an outstanding pick. Buium is huge, physical and possesses high-end offensive skill. The risk here is that Buium is an average skater at best. But Buium is a fairly typical 2nd round pick, in that he combines many first-round qualities with one, big BUT.

37 ARI RW Doan: an embarrassing pick from an embarrassment of a franchise. Reeling over the PR disaster of picking one of the worst human beings in hockey history with Mitch Miller as their top pick in 2020, the Coyotes think they can make it all better by taking the son of their most popular player ever. The problem is, Doan was probably worth a 5th round pick, talent-wise. Pure nepotism and no vision here from a franchise desperate for high-end talent, which they passed up on in order to high-five each other for the cameras.

38 Vegas: D Chayka: an excellent pick of a player with all the tools to be a 1st round pick but who was inconsistent in terms of performance in his draft-eligible season. This is almost the definitive 2nd round pick. There is risk, sure -- but if it pans out Vegas could have a 20+ minute, all-situations defender.

39 OTT: W Ostapchuk: a typical pick from another clueless franchise, Ottawa takes a "big strong Canadian kid" they could've easily had in the 5th round despite the fact that he's not all that good at hockey.

So out of the 7 teams to start the first round, this is essentially what we saw:

1 team playing it safe because they were desperate for NHL bodies (SEA)

2 teams swinging for the fences at high risk (BUF, ANH)

2 teams making godawful picks to bolster their philosophies which have been proven time and time again to not work (ARI, OTT)

2 teams with very strong managements making outstanding picks (DET, VEG)

So, I have no idea what the % odds are of a pick in the #33-#39 range making the NHL. But those odds must be mitigated that 2 teams basically picked kids based with 0% scouting acumen. Out of the other 5? I think Seattle accomplished what they set out to -- a strong chance of an NHL player, but a supporting one at best. I think Buium and Chayka are pretty surefire NHLers, and I think it's still a coin flip with the Buffalo/Anaheim high-upside picks.
 
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StevenToddIves

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He seems to be producing a ton since the Olympics though.
I'd ignore this. "Slafkovsky is Kakko 2.0" is just silly. Maybe you still remember: "Devils can't draft Lucas Raymond, he's Tedenby 2.0!" Because I remember, and it still makes me sad that people write this nonsense without actually watching the players. I'm still hurting from "K'Andre Miller is the same as Gelinas!"

I still have hope in Kakko, I think he's going to be a very good, two-way 2nd line winger. But Slafkovsky is something else entirely. Whereas Kakko was checks of "good" across the tool board in a big body, Slafkovsky possesses multiple elite tools, including passing vision, puckhandling, physical play and hockey IQ -- he's rare.
 
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StevenToddIves

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If we win the #1 pick, do we draft Slaf?
Yes.

The only other option would be to trade down, if someone in the #2-#5 range offers the world. Devils would still be fine with Jiricek/Nemec, especially if they were also receiving something else sizable in a return package.
 

glenwo2

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Yes.

The only other option would be to trade down, if someone in the #2-#5 range offers the world. Devils would still be fine with Jiricek/Nemec, especially if they were also receiving something else sizable in a return package.
What constitutes "the world", though?

I think only McDavid being offered to us would be considered "offering the world".
 
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Captain3rdLine

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I ignore the ratios because bad-drafting teams drag down the good-drafting ones. I mean, we can look at the top few picks of the 2021 2nd round and analyze them as such.

33 BUF W Poltapov: Buffalo swings for the fences with a high-upside offensive winger, which I respect. what I don't respect is he was not the best one available -- Chibrikov was sitting right there. Heck, Edmonton got Petrov in the 6th round, whom I had over Poltapov. And let's not even get into Rashevsky, whom Winnipeg got in the 5th round and already goes in the 2021 1st round in a re-draft. So, an okay pick in theory which was a bit off the mark in actual practice.

34 ANH D Zellweger: the Ducks went for a high-upside offensive defenseman who impressed in tournament play. The pick looks like a big win now, because Zellweger is putting up insane numbers in the WHL. However, this excitement must be tempered by the fact Zellweger is 5'9 and not a particularly impressive skater -- as good as he is in the WHL, will it translate against players far faster and stronger than him? Still, must be considered a very good pick at the moment.

35 SEA D Evans: a bit baffling, as the Kraken went with an overage defenseman with a pretty good 3rd pairing floor as a mostly stay-at-home guy with some puck skills. Very conservative pick from an expansion team.

36 DET D Buium: this was, in typical Yzerman fashion, an outstanding pick. Buium is huge, physical and possesses high-end offensive skill. The risk here is that Buium is an average skater at best. But Buium is a fairly typical 2nd round pick, in that he combines many first-round qualities with one, big BUT.

37 ARI RW Doan: an embarrassing pick from an embarrassment of a franchise. Reeling over the PR disaster of picking one of the worst human beings in hockey history with Mitch Miller as their top pick in 2020, the Coyotes think they can make it all better by taking the son of their most popular player ever. The problem is, Doan was probably worth a 5th round pick, talent-wise. Pure nepotism and no vision here from a franchise desperate for high-end talent, which they passed up on in order to high-five each other for the cameras.

38 Vegas: D Chayka: an excellent pick of a player with all the tools to be a 1st round pick but who was inconsistent in terms of performance in his draft-eligible season. This is almost the definitive 2nd round pick. There is risk, sure -- but if it pans out Vegas could have a 20+ minute, all-situations defender.

39 OTT: W Ostapchuk: a typical pick from another clueless franchise, Ottawa takes a "big strong Canadian kid" they could've easily had in the 5th round despite the fact that he's not all that good at hockey.

So out of the 7 teams to start the first round, this is essentially what we saw:

1 team playing it safe because they were desperate for NHL bodies (SEA)

2 teams swinging for the fences at high risk (BUF, ANH)

2 teams making godawful picks to bolster their philosophies which have been proven time and time again to not work (ARI, OTT)

2 teams with very strong managements making outstanding picks (DET, VEG)

So, I have no idea what the % odds are of a pick in the #33-#39 range making the NHL. But those odds must be mitigated that 2 teams basically picked kids based with 0% scouting acumen. Out of the other 5? I think Seattle accomplished what they set out to -- a strong chance of an NHL player, but a supporting one at best. I think Buium and Chayka are pretty surefire NHLers, and I think it's still a coin flip with the Buffalo/Anaheim high-upside picks.
The problem is that you’re talking about these players as if your opinion is fact. Seattle and the others teams who’s picks you questioned certainly see more potential in the players they took than you. They simply view these players differently. But none of those players are surefire NHL players at all. You’re not getting a surefire NHL player in the 2nd round or even late 1st round.

Some of what you’re saying on how you’re view these players looks really bad too and seems to completely ignore how the players have done since the draft. Production isn’t everything at all but…
37th pick Doan: terrible and embarrassing pick. Player worth a 5th round pick.
Freshmen numbers: 12 goals and 37 points in 35 games. Over a point per game and the most productive freshman in NCCA hockey this season. Purely based on production this pick looks great so far.
 
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Guttersniped

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Not to contradict you, but I hate the "odds of XXX pick making it" arguments. If I'm an NHL GM, I'm going to have a top-notch scouting team and do some scouting myself. If I'm not completely confident and certain my 2nd round pick is going to be a regular NHLer with upside, I'm not drafting him.

The only exception to this would be a guy like Miroshnichenko, whose health concerns are serious enough that they may, in fact, hamper his NHL career. But the flip side is, if Miro makes a 100% recovery? You could have a 90+ point power forward with your 2nd round pick.

Also not all 2nd round picks are the same and we have a very early one. The value of those can also depend on the depth of the particular draft, luck with players who fall (we lost out on Aho when CAR grabbed him a spot before us in 2015 for example).

The ~36th pick will more likely than not actually at least play a game in the NHL and it’s a chance to pick up an excellent player.

We haven’t drafted with our own 2nd since 2017 (for Subban & Gusev and those trade trees are dead), and we didn’t do it in 2015 either, I wish people stopped trying to wish this pick away. I need this lol.
 

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