Speculation: 2022 off-season discussion

[LJ7]

Eh?

FWIW their fans were not happy with his playoff performance

 

[Cowumbus]

Yes to the 4th line assumption.

I think (hope) they would trade Bemstrom for a 2023 pick -2nd?rather than risk losing him through waivers. Probably same thought process on Foudy. If the 23 draft is as deep as projected could be a nice return.

They also could carry 14 F's but if they aren't going to play why bother?

Trade Nyquist. He’s not part of the long term plan, and honestly could be replaced internally.

 

[GoJackets1]

2nd round picks should “hit” (200 NHL GP) about 30 percent of the time.


Since Jarmo has been here he has made 8 second round selections:

Del Bel Belluz (N/A)
Marchenko
Texier
Peeke
Bittner (Miss)
Stenlund (Miss)
Collins (Miss)
Heatherington (Miss)

I’m not a “Jarmo is a draft God” guy but he hasn’t been bad (In the second round).

Slightly off topic and I'll speak for myself here, but I think it has some merit. Jarmo's specialty really is finding NHL players, gems even, in rounds 3+. His hit rate in those rounds is significantly higher than all of those hit rates mentioned in the tweet.

Round 3:
Bjork, Elvis, Kolesar
Really the only blatant misses here are Karlberg and Siebenaler. That's a 43% hit rate (3/7) thru 2018, but could be as high as 66% (6/9) if Tarasov, Knazko and Svozil all continue their current trajectories.

Round 4:
Bemstrom is the only obvious hit, but Voronkov, Richard and Pyhhtia are possibles as well. Jarmo has had very few 4th round picks in his tenure here. He had a 33% hit rate (1/3) finding NHL players here thru 2018. It's extremely unlikely, but the hit rate could go as high as 57% (4/7) thru 2021.

Round 5-7:
The hit rate tapers off in these rounds with no hits in the 5th, finding Gav and Nuti in 6 and 7 respectively, which gives him a 14% hit rate in 6, and 16% in 7. It's obviously impressive finding those two in these rounds, but in 6-7 rounds I'm impressed with his ability to find guys that play any NHL games at all- Meyer, TFW, and possibly Angle.

So Jarmo punches above average in all of the late rounds, but the 3rd round and hopefully the 4th round are where he and the staff do a truly special job. Last year, I went thru all teams to find an overall hit rate of all picks by team, and us and Carolina were far ahead of any other teams.

 

[Cowumbus]

Slightly off topic and I'll speak for myself here, but I think it has some merit. Jarmo's specialty really is finding NHL players, gems even, in rounds 3+. His hit rate in those rounds is significantly higher than all of those hit rates mentioned in the tweet.

Round 3:
Bjork, Elvis, Kolesar
Really the only blatant misses here are Karlberg and Siebenaler. That's a 43% hit rate (3/7) thru 2018, but could be as high as 66% (6/9) if Tarasov, Knazko and Svozil all continue their current trajectories.

Round 4:
Bemstrom is the only obvious hit, but Voronkov, Richard and Pyhhtia are possibles as well. Jarmo has had very few 4th round picks in his tenure here. He had a 33% hit rate (1/3) finding NHL players here thru 2018. It's extremely unlikely, but the hit rate could go as high as 57% (4/7) thru 2021.

Round 5-7:
The hit rate tapers off in these rounds with no hits in the 5th, finding Gav and Nuti in 6 and 7 respectively, which gives him a 14% hit rate in 6, and 16% in 7. It's obviously impressive finding those two in these rounds, but in 6-7 rounds I'm impressed with his ability to find guys that play any NHL games at all- Meyer, TFW, and possibly Angle.

So Jarmo punches above average in all of the late rounds, but the 3rd round and hopefully the 4th round are where he and the staff do a truly special job. Last year, I went thru all teams to find an overall hit rate of all picks by team, and us and Carolina were far ahead of any other teams.

He hasn’t been good in the middle to late 1st round though, which should be layups. You need that once you become a playoff team.

Wennberg (decent) Rychel (bust) Dano (bust) Carlsson (bust) Foudy (heading towards busting) Chinakhov (TBD) Ceulemans (TBD)

 

[Jive Pawnbroker]

FWIW their fans were not happy with his playoff performance

The powerplay going AWOL really hurt them - they never were able to make any adjustments which with the talent on that team was inexcusable.

 

[EspenK]

Trade Nyquist. He’s not part of the long term plan, and honestly could be replaced internally.

Depending on the return - A late 2023 1st or a very early 2023 2nd I'd do it. I don't think it will happen though because Jarmo is in between competing now and retooling, imo.

 

[Cowumbus]

Depending on the return - A late 2023 1st or a very early 2023 2nd I'd do it. I don't think it will happen though because Jarmo is in between competing now and retooling, imo.

And if he tries to compete right now then we will be stuck in mediocrity for another 5 years.

Nyquist @ 2.75 + 2023 3rd for a 1st would be great. Don’t think teams “value” him like he is around here though.

 

[CBJx614]

He hasn’t been good in the middle to late 1st round though, which should be layups. You need that once you become a playoff team.

Wennberg (decent) Rychel (bust) Dano (bust) Carlsson (bust) Foudy (heading towards busting) Chinakhov (TBD) Ceulemans (TBD)

Can someone please explain to me where this Foudy is heading towards a bust movement that's started? He's produced since turning pro, he just hasn't been healthy.

 

[Cowumbus]

Can someone please explain to me where this Foudy is heading towards a bust movement that's started? He's produced since turning pro, he just hasn't been healthy.

Staying healthy is a huge issue, ask Paul Bittner.

He had a good year in a watered down AHL. He can still make it to the NHL, but is not a top prospect anymore. At this point you’re hoping for a bottom 6 guy.

 

[CBJWerenski8]

We dodged one with MDZ last year. It was pretty popular around here that we wanted to sign him for 2 years as well

 

[CBJWerenski8]

Staying healthy is a huge issue, ask Paul Bittner.

He had a good year in a watered down AHL. He can still make it to the NHL, but is not a top prospect anymore. At this point you’re hoping for a bottom 6 guy.

I had called him a bottom 6er ever since he was drafted. He remains a low ceiling high floor player as he was when he was drafted. In my eyes at least

 

[CBJWerenski8]

FWIW their fans were not happy with his playoff performance

Yeah he was bad. But he’s got one year left, can be a long term answer to top 4 RD. Good analytics, and maybe could be bad for cheap since Florida is cap strapped

 

[Cowumbus]

I had called him a bottom 6er ever since he was drafted. He remains a low ceiling high floor player as he was when he was drafted. In my eyes at least

You’re not wrong.

But for a 1st round pick that is underwhelming. Should have taken K’andre.

 

[MissADD]

Trade Nyquist. He’s not part of the long term plan, and honestly could be replaced internally.

Who replaces Nyqust internally? Just because he is a movable asset doesn't mean you move him. He has constantly been on a 50 point in the NHL his entire career and he adds a needed veteran presence to forwards. Him and Voracek are the only players on the team older than 30. I am not saying get a team of all 30+ year olds, but a team needs a few of these players who have been in the league a long time to help the younger players. Look at the blue line, Yes Z is great, but the D really lacks a long time vet to help the young guys. Now come deadline time, when the Jackets are out, if the right deal comes along and Gus doesn't want to extend(at a cheaper rate of course) then move him. Just don't move him now unless its an overpayment.

 

[Cowumbus]

Who replaces Nyqust internally? Just because he is a movable asset doesn't mean you move him. He has constantly been on a 50 point in the NHL his entire career and he adds a needed veteran presence to forwards. Him and Voracek are the only players on the team older than 30. I am not saying get a team of all 30+ year olds, but a team needs a few of these players who have been in the league a long time to help the younger players. Look at the blue line, Yes Z is great, but the D really lacks a long time vet to help the young guys. Now come deadline time, when the Jackets are out, if the right deal comes along and Gus doesn't want to extend(at a cheaper rate of course) then move him. Just don't move him now unless its an overpayment.

Bjorkstrand, Werenski, Jenner, Kuraly, Laine Korpisalo have all been in the league a long time.

Literally anyone. Give the minutes to Texier. Give them to Marchenko. Do you just want Vets on the roster forever and for guys like Chinakhov to play fourth line forever?

What does 1 year do? He’s gone after this contract. Do you want to keep him and get nothing in return? Wait until TDL? What’s the difference… I’m fine with giving guys who should be part of the core his ice time.

 

[InfiniteElement]

I'm all for trading Nyquist (to make room for youth), but Jarmo's said he wants to keep the leadership group together. I wonder at what cost, though? Especially for a guy who has said he loves being a Blue Jacket, likes the city, etc. He's apparently close with Werenski, too.

Very interested to see how this unfolds, we realistically need to drop a couple forwards. Trying to make line combos is super painful at the moment.

 

[Double-Shift Lasse]

Nyquist @ 2.75 + 2023 3rd for a 1st would be great. Don’t think teams “value” him like he is around here though.

If teams don't value him how do we expect to get a first round pick for him?

I'm in agreement, despite that he seems like a good "soldier," that we should be grooming someone to assume his role(s), especially with the young players you mention elsewhere available to do so.

 

[DarkandStormy]

He hasn’t been good in the middle to late 1st round though, which should be layups. You need that once you become a playoff team.

Wennberg (decent) Rychel (bust) Dano (bust) Carlsson (bust) Foudy (heading towards busting) Chinakhov (TBD) Ceulemans (TBD)

Milano (bust)

 

[DarkandStormy]

Slightly off topic and I'll speak for myself here, but I think it has some merit. Jarmo's specialty really is finding NHL players, gems even, in rounds 3+. His hit rate in those rounds is significantly higher than all of those hit rates mentioned in the tweet.

Round 3:
Bjork, Elvis, Kolesar
Really the only blatant misses here are Karlberg and Siebenaler. That's a 43% hit rate (3/7) thru 2018, but could be as high as 66% (6/9) if Tarasov, Knazko and Svozil all continue their current trajectories.

Round 4:
Bemstrom is the only obvious hit, but Voronkov, Richard and Pyhhtia are possibles as well. Jarmo has had very few 4th round picks in his tenure here. He had a 33% hit rate (1/3) finding NHL players here thru 2018. It's extremely unlikely, but the hit rate could go as high as 57% (4/7) thru 2021.

Round 5-7:
The hit rate tapers off in these rounds with no hits in the 5th, finding Gav and Nuti in 6 and 7 respectively, which gives him a 14% hit rate in 6, and 16% in 7. It's obviously impressive finding those two in these rounds, but in 6-7 rounds I'm impressed with his ability to find guys that play any NHL games at all- Meyer, TFW, and possibly Angle.

So Jarmo punches above average in all of the late rounds, but the 3rd round and hopefully the 4th round are where he and the staff do a truly special job. Last year, I went thru all teams to find an overall hit rate of all picks by team, and us and Carolina were far ahead of any other teams.

A little early to declare some guys as hits or busts.

3rd round: Abramov (bust), Svozil (TBD?), Kolesar (hit...but also Anthony Cirelli was right there), Knazko (TBD), Merzlikins (hit), Siebenaler (bust), Karlberg (bust), Tarasov (TBD?), Bjorkstrand (hit), Dumais (TBD)
4th round: Richard (TBD), Hjorth (TBD...trending bust?), Dolzhenkov (TBD), Moutrey (bust), Pelletier (bust), Voronkov (TBD), Pyyhtia (TBD), Bemstrom (idk...dude has 117 career NHL games but can't consistently make the big roster without injuries)
5th round: no hits, only TBD on Makarov, Malatesta, Ivanov, and Bjorgvik Holm
6th round: right no Gavrikov looks like they only hit, TBD on Berni, Boyd, Meyer, and Johannesson
7th round: hit on Nutivaara (but what does that get you when you trade him away for nothing?), TBD on TFE, Angle, Fisher, Rysavy

5 or 6 hits if you're generous with Bemstrom, busts on 15, and TBD on 21 with several trending towards bust.

 

[Xoggz22]

Bemstrom gets a QO. I guess it won't hurt, but I question why the club is wasting time on him. Taking up space and money. My hope for some excitement out of this offseason is waning by the day. Still time to go, so I'll reserve judgement.


There's a fine line between trying and being aggressive. I'm curious as to what is holding them back? Money, Analytics people, JD, Priest?

Bemmstrom is still an asset with value. It costs nothing to qualify him and while I feel he's had his chances, I don't believe he's a player you just let go. He's shown glimpses of the incredible shot, his speed and he has a little grit. He just hasn't put it together and at, what, 22? 23? There is still time. I just think it will be in another organization. Best way to get there is qualify him and trade him. Get something.

As to the off season... what expectation did you have? The draft was likely to be the big hit... and it was. Free agency won't be anything given what's available and how they would fit. A trade or two is still inevitable given the glut of forwards. Hang in there.

 

[Xoggz22]

First off, aggressive and smart are not necessarily the same things. 2nd, you either are aggressive or you aren’t. There isn’t really trying. GMs always talk. I’m just not sure you can call anything being aggressive without results. I consider being aggressive to include some sort of action. Good or bad.

Chicago is aggressively becoming a train wreck. Ottawa was being aggressive and took real action to make their team better by acquiring DeBrincat. We’ll find out in time if those actions were smart or not.

But it's also about timing. Not to be a jerk but it's about time Ottawa was aggressive. How many years into a rebuild? You can aggressively search and never find too... me, personally, I don't want action from being aggressive that minimizes at value. I'm not big on Dach and I don't like a $9M QO for Debrincat.

 

[GoJackets1]

A little early to declare some guys as hits or busts.

3rd round: Abramov (bust), Svozil (TBD?), Kolesar (hit...but also Anthony Cirelli was right there), Knazko (TBD), Merzlikins (hit), Siebenaler (bust), Karlberg (bust), Tarasov (TBD?), Bjorkstrand (hit), Dumais (TBD)
4th round: Richard (TBD), Hjorth (TBD...trending bust?), Dolzhenkov (TBD), Moutrey (bust), Pelletier (bust), Voronkov (TBD), Pyyhtia (TBD), Bemstrom (idk...dude has 117 career NHL games but can't consistently make the big roster without injuries)
5th round: no hits, only TBD on Makarov, Malatesta, Ivanov, and Bjorgvik Holm
6th round: right no Gavrikov looks like they only hit, TBD on Berni, Boyd, Meyer, and Johannesson
7th round: hit on Nutivaara (but what does that get you when you trade him away for nothing?), TBD on TFE, Angle, Fisher, Rysavy

5 or 6 hits if you're generous with Bemstrom, busts on 15, and TBD on 21 with several trending towards bust.

Yeah I mean, I’m really not being overly generous. I just didn’t list the guys that are likely busts. The hit rates are the same. And there’s really no point in playing the “who was there” game either. If you do that then every GM sucks. You have to look at a pure hit rate. Bemstrom and Kolesar will have more than 200 GP soon, and that was the definition provided in the tweet. Jarmo’s ability to find NHL players in the later rounds significantly outpaces the average.

 

[DarkandStormy]

Yes to the 4th line assumption.

I think (hope) they would trade Bemstrom for a 2023 pick -2nd?rather than risk losing him through waivers. Probably same thought process on Foudy. If the 23 draft is as deep as projected could be a nice return.

Why would anyone pay a 2023 2nd round pick who couldn't even stay in the NHL lineup last year on a non-playoff team? Dude has played 117 career games. He's scored 19 goals and 36 points. He's 23 now.

It took a 2nd rounder to get Jake Bean from Caolina.

 

[DarkandStormy]

Yeah I mean, I’m really not being overly generous. I just didn’t list the guys that are likely busts. The hit rates are the same. And there’s really no point in playing the “who was there” game either. If you do that then every GM sucks. You have to look at a pure hit rate. Bemstrom and Kolesar will have more than 200 GP soon, and that was the definition provided in the tweet. Jarmo’s ability to find NHL players in the later rounds significantly outpaces the average.

Bemstrom seems destined for a season or two more of AAAA status and then back to Europe, so I don't think you can pencil him in as a hit/200 games played.

Depending on how the '18-'22 classes go, Jarmo's "hit" rate in rounds 3-7 might be <20%, which is fine, but certainly not significantly better than league average.

EDIT - here's Howson:
-3rd round: hit on Korpisalo, missed on Tynan and Hansen (1/3 or 33%)
-4th round: hits on Savard, Anderson, and Mike Reilly (even if games not played for Columbus), missed on Mayorov, Archibald, Delisle, and Corbeil-Theriault (3/7 or 43%)
-5th round: hit on Matt Calvert, missed on Madaisky, Ambroz, Kubalik, Larkin, and Regner (1/6 or 16.7%)
-6th round: hit on Prout, Atkinson, and interestingly enough, looks like Lukas Sedlak may hit 200 career NHL games if he plays 38 games with Colorado this upcoming season (seems possible, if not likely?), missed on Zaar, York, and Blomqvist (i'll this 2/6 but trending towards 3/6)
-7th round: hit on Anton Forsberg, missed on Curcuruto, Ouellette, Collins, Neuber, and Vogelhuber (1/6 or 16.7%)

In total, 8/28 (28.6%) though it's likely to get to 9/28 (32%) if Sedlak crosses 200 games. That was in six draft classes.

Howson hits: Korpisalo, Savard, Anderson, Reilly, Calvert, Prout, Atkinson, Forsberg, and maybe Sedlak
vs
Kekalainen hits: Kolesar (likely), Merzlikins, Bjorkstrand, Gavrikov, Nutivaara, and maybe Bemstrom if he actually sticks for two seasons (unlikely, imo)

I'd argue Howson was better at finding mid and late round gems than Jarmo is.

 

[EspenK]

If teams don't value him how do we expect to get a first round pick for him?

I'm in agreement, despite that he seems like a good "soldier," that we should be grooming someone to assume his role(s), especially with the young players you mention elsewhere available to do so.

Greater fool theory?

The second part is what bothers me the most. Unless there are plans to re-sign/extend him he needs to be traded to free up space for one of the extra F's talked about above. I think Jarmo still clings to the notion of this team being more competitive than I think it is. We have built a pretty decent group of prospects albeit we still lack that can't miss guy like a Bedard. With next year's draft supposedly loaded I would rather see 2022-23 as a season to further evaluate the young guys and not play our way to another 12th place or thereabout draft spot thereby eliminating, however slight it might be, of have a shot at winning the lottery.

Why would anyone pay a 2023 2nd round pick who couldn't even stay in the NHL lineup last year on a non-playoff team? Dude has played 117 career games. He's scored 19 goals and 36 points. He's 23 now.

It took a 2nd rounder to get Jake Bean from Caolina.

Greater fool theory? Maybe a 2nd, maybe a 3rd. The point is get another shot at the draft rather than possibly lose him through waivers.