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2022 NHL Entry Draft 8

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NekkiChiconey said:
I'm hoping HuGo have a couple targets in the late 10s / early 20s who they are willing to trade up for barring a slight fall. I have a significant difference in quality after my top 20. I'd be looking for Ohgren/Trikozov/Lambert/Mesar/Kasper and possibly Yurov depending on how reluctant teams are to pick Russians.

Personal (and more or less realistic) dream would be if we can come out with:
Nazar at 4
Yurov at 22 (for let's say 27 + 49?)
Chesley at 34
Click to expand...

I agree it would be awesome to get a 1st line forward and a 2nd line forward with the Calgary pick packaged with whatever to move up.
 
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DiglettDangles said:
I don't entirely agree on your angle. but it's defendable if you consider Cooley/Savoie/Slafkovsky/Nazar as potential 1st liners, players that dictate the game.
Otherwise you definitely take the first pairing D ceiling prospect over a 2nd liner.
Personally I'm not ready to say those forward prospects (meeting let's say 80% of their ceiling hopefully) are shoe-ins for the 1st line, Slaf being the most likely imo.

Your statement is sometimes true but shouldn't be considered gospel truth. Look at the Sergachev draft (2016) - the only first pairing D after pick 16 (Chychrun) is Adam Fox with a whole bunch of misses in between. 2017 is even worse with *maybe* David Farrance past Heiskanen/Makar. 2018 doesn't look brighter. Even the incredible 2015 draft doesn't have a top 2 defender past Chabot at 18. For top defenders you also have to pick early now - the Shea Weber and PK Subban picks are an outdated reference.

By our 2nd round pick the only Ds with legitimate 1st pair potential still available might be limited to Hutson (smol boi), Bichsel (mostly defensive but yuge), and Lindgren (big if). Nemec/Jiricek/Mintyukov/Mateychuk/Korchinski/Pickering I suspect will be gone and I wouldn't trade up for the last 2. Definitely more than 6 Ds drafted in the first 32. Absolutely no point for the Habs in drafting a defender with a 2nd pair ceiling, at this point. Go big or go home. If that's what you see in Nemec and Jiricek, I understand your position.

In my opinion this draft will have sufficient offensive quality at around pick 32 that I would prefer:
Nemec/Jiricek + Goyette/Ostlund/Kulich/Firkus/Gleb and other falling Russians
vs
Cooley/Nazar + Hutson/Bichsel/Lindgren

Slaf is the wildcard, I don't know yet.

Anyways, BPA.
And let's suck again next year.
Click to expand...

I agree that we don't need any more depth defencemen. We've got tons of them. Go big or go home.

But I think you missed the main point of my post. Or maybe I didn't state it very clearly. First pairing defencemen have regularly been found with picks outside the top 20. Not just serviceable, unimaginative journeymen but genuine NHL stars. The tricky bit is that at the moment that these future stars were picked, they were perceived as much less.

When Shea Weber was picked the second round (47th overall) in 2003, do you think Nashville and the rest of the league knew he'd anchor for a first pairing for the next 15 years. Of course not. Or he would have been picked top 5.

PK Subban, Chris Chelios and Larry Robinson were all also chosen in the 2nd round. Andre Markov in the 6th. Together with Weber, these four players have been the heart and soul of the Habs' defence over the past five decades. None were top picks.

The odds-on Norris Trophy favorite this season, Roman Josi, was drafted in the 2nd round. Last year's Norris winner, Adam Fox, in the 3rd. Ditto for Kris Letang.

That all these lower picks turned out so well is not only a testament to savvy drafting. It also shows that when a defenceman is picked at the age of 18, it is very hard to predict how he will pan out. This is much more true for defencemen than for forwards. For every Nikita Kucherov (round 2), there are many more Duncan Keiths (round 2), Zdeno Charas (round 3), and Niklas Lidstoms (3rd round). All Norris winners.

The list is long and not necessarily "outdated". It takes time to for most defencemen to mature into their final iteration. Generally speaking, longer than with forwards. Which makes looking at trends during the first few years after a draft a bit misleading.

So without being particularly familiar with the prospects in this year's crop--truthfully, who is?--I say emphatically "give me Cooley!". Or Wright! Even Slafkovsky, if he's the real deal. There is a crying need for top drawer talent on offense and we will not get it other than through the draft. Hopefully, we will not be picking this high for too many more years, so let's not squander this rare chance to get a bona fide star.

And with our three other picks in the first two rounds, maybe we'll get lucky with Tristan Luneau or Ryan Chesley. It happens more often than you'd think.
 
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Sam I Am said:
I agree that we don't need any more depth defencemen. We've got tons of them. Go big or go home.

But I think you missed the main point of my post. Or maybe I didn't state it very clearly. First pairing defencemen have regularly been found with picks outside the top 20. Not just serviceable, unimaginative journeymen but genuine NHL stars. The tricky bit is that at the moment that these future stars were picked, they were perceived as much less.

When Shea Weber was picked the second round (47th overall) in 2003, do you think Nashville and the rest of the league knew he'd anchor for a first pairing for the next 15 years. Of course not. Or he would have been picked top 5.

PK Subban, Chris Chelios and Larry Robinson were all also chosen in the 2nd round. Andre Markov in the 6th. Together with Weber, these four players have been the heart and soul of the Habs' defence over the past five decades. None were top picks.

The odds-on Norris Trophy favorite this season, Roman Josi, was drafted in the 2nd round. Last year's Norris winner, Adam Fox, in the 3rd. Ditto for Kris Letang.

That all these lower picks turned out so well is not only a testament to savvy drafting. It also shows that when a defenceman is picked at the age of 18, it is very hard to predict how he will pan out. This is much more true for defencemen than for forwards. For every Nikita Kucherov (round 2), there are many more Duncan Keiths (round 2), Zdeno Charas (round 3), and Niklas Lidstoms (3rd round). All Norris winners.

The list is long and not necessarily "outdated". It takes time to for most defencemen to mature into their final iteration. Generally speaking, longer than with forwards. Which makes looking at trends during the first few years after a draft a bit misleading.

So without being particularly familiar with the prospects in this year's crop--truthfully, who is?--I say emphatically "give me Cooley!". Or Wright! Even Slafkovsky, if he's the real deal. There is a crying need for top drawer talent on offense and we will not get it other than through the draft. Hopefully, we will not be picking this high for too many more years, so let's not squander this rare chance to get a bona fide star.

And with our three other picks in the first two rounds, maybe we'll get lucky with Tristan Luneau or Ryan Chesley. It happens more often than you'd think.
Click to expand...
I understand you loud and clear. But I challenge you that the drafting paradigm you refer to has changed since your 10+ years old examples.

But instead of relying on old sayings I went through the draft lists from 2012 to 2018 (after that it's too early to say) and here is the list of top pair D from pick 25+ (and I'm generous), 25 being the whereabouts of the CGY pick:
N. Lundkvist? (2018, 28)
M. Ferraro? (2017, 49)
C. Timmins? (2017, 32)
A. Fox (2016, 66)
S. Girard? (2016, 47)
D. Toews? (2014, 108)
S. Theodore (2013, 26)
B. Pesce (2013, 66)
M. Weegar (2013, 206)
A. Pelech (2012, 65)
E. Lindell? (2012, 74)
C. Parayko (2012, 86)
J. Slavin (2012, 120)

...for a total of 13, 7 truly top pair, in 6 rounds x 7 years... less than 2/year when generous.
You can't call me out on cherry picking years, 2012 was above average. There are also none in 2011 and only Klingberg in 2010.
When you do the actual work, you see it hasn't been the same story in the recent years.

The only reason I would give your theory the benefit of the doubt this year is because of the pandemic we might have a situation where many talents will have been underscouted.
 
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Lambert's going to be pretty good, IMO, and people will be mad because the criticisms about him are justified, but it won't end up mattering.

A lot of players look goofy and end up being awesome.
 
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WeThreeKings said:
Don't have to worry about much now.

Wright
Suzuki

Cooley
Suzuki

Slafkovsky-Suzuki-Caufield

Guhle-Jiricek

Guhle-Nemec

That's what we are looking at.
Click to expand...
Nazar
Suzuki
🤫🤫

In all seriousness though, I wouldn't be surprised if they prefer him to Cooley and pick him at 4 after Wright, Slaf, Nemec. It's just to say that I think he can be added to that group of 5.
 
NekkiChiconey said:
Nazar
Suzuki
🤫🤫

In all seriousness though, I wouldn't be surprised if they prefer him to Cooley and pick him at 4 after Wright, Slaf, Nemec. It's just to say that I think he can be added to that group of 5.
Click to expand...
He's just outside to me but if they made that call I really wouldn't mind. He's just unlikely to stick at center.
 
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WeThreeKings said:
He's just outside to me but if they made that call I really wouldn't mind. He's just unlikely to stick at center.
Click to expand...
We'll see. I might get rocks thrown at me for this but I feel like he's equally fitted to be a center in the NHL as Cooley. Cooley is better defensively but I have more confidence in Nazar to handle physicality.
I think he sees himself as a center and Adam Nightingale seems to agree.
 
Skip Bayless said:
He gives me Moritz Seider vibes. I think whoever picks him is picking a future #1 D.
Click to expand...
Potentially yes, but just to be clear he is not as good defensively as Seider was but seems more involved in the offensive side of the game. I would find it hard to pass on both Nemec and Jiricek to get Cooley or Slaf
 
I have a feeling Jiricek is going to be in the conversation for pick #2 when it's all said and done.
 
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