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NHL Entry Draft 2022 NHL Draft Thread - Part 2

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MatchesMalone said:
Well, I'm not sure this is quite fair. I guess as long as you mean in terms of your own assessment, not by the numbers. Players often have big performances at the U18s and aren't drafted particularly early. Look at Koivunen and Tuomaala last year. Chibrikov, Pinelli. Size and skating are consistently the biggest factors that prevent star junior players from being star pros.

I also don't think you should lump all of the assessments of McGroarty here into one thing. The one guy compared him to Shane Bowers and said he doesn't have much upside. Please don't associate me with that guy.

The most interesting point of comparison here is the developmental curve. I watched McTavish at U17s and then didn't see him again until U18s, and the improvement was astronomical. I went back and rewatched a game from U17s to be sure I didn't just overlook him first time around and no, he had developed leaps and bounds over that year and a half. I do think I see some of that with McGroarty. I talked about how I don't think his hockey IQ is on the same level as Sillinger's was, but if you read my posts on Sillinger last year, that's not saying too much. Very few prospects are.

But when you're not a great skater, your hockey IQ has to be through the roof to be an impact player in the NHL. McGroarty's seems good, but I'm not sure it's good enough. The thing I like is every time he moves up to a new level, he seems to struggle at first, but after a little while he figures it out and excels. I said this at the start of the season about him and we're seeing it again in this recent stretch. To me this is a sign that he's able to use his hockey IQ to figure out how to compensate for his skating. I do think he's a fairly safe pick to be a bottom sixer, and I also think there is some room for top six upside. But I also think this is a pretty darn strong draft and that there's some guys like Luneau, Korchinski, Trikozov who are badly under-rated.

But anyway, we can have this conversation again after U18s. Only a week and a half away.
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It really comes down to what his actual upside is. Stylistically when I watch footage of McGroarty like the video below it reminds me of footage of Brady Tkachuk prior to getting drafted. A lot of Sens fans wanted the Sens to draft other players in the 2018 draft and after Tkachuk got drafted many on here complained about the pick and took a very pessimistic stance. I was a fan of the Tkachuk pick at the time, I was ecstatic when we drafted him and thus far I have been very happy with the player he has become and what player he might become in the future.

If we have a chance to take another Brady Tkachuk type, particularly outside the top 5, I am taking that pick. The only real question for me is what the difference is in upside. If the scouts are convinced that McGroarty has similar upside and similar potential of achieving it then I am all for the pick. I also see some flashes of Mark Stone in his game so he would be another player I would want to compare the upside with, the factors that lead Stone to being successful and whether McGroarty can go on a similar development path. If that is the case then I am all for this pick. Even if the upside is the same and McGroarty legitimately has the potential to be another Tkachuk/Stone, fans on here will complain if we make the pick, claim we passed on better players and then be surprised when the pick turns out to be a very good player.

If on the other hand the scouts determine that his upside is lower than Tkachuk or that he has less of a chance of achieving it then I would adjust his ranking accordingly. I am not advocating for taking a leap on a player from a pure style perspective, I am arguing that if style and upside are legitimately comparable then he is a player I am going to advocate for.




 
RAFI BOMB said:
Josh Davies seems like a player the Sens would like:



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I've watched a lot of Swift Current this year for Pickering/Filmon/Ward and Davies always stood out as a pretty intriguing late round pick. Kid is as hard as nails, has a pretty good shot and skates incredibly well. Could definitely see a bottom 6 nhl role for him in the future.
 
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MatchesMalone said:
Well, I'm not sure this is quite fair. I guess as long as you mean in terms of your own assessment, not by the numbers. Players often have big performances at the U18s and aren't drafted particularly early. Look at Koivunen and Tuomaala last year. Chibrikov, Pinelli. Size and skating are consistently the biggest factors that prevent star junior players from being star pros.

I also don't think you should lump all of the assessments of McGroarty here into one thing. The one guy compared him to Shane Bowers and said he doesn't have much upside. Please don't associate me with that guy.

The most interesting point of comparison here is the developmental curve. I watched McTavish at U17s and then didn't see him again until U18s, and the improvement was astronomical. I went back and rewatched a game from U17s to be sure I didn't just overlook him first time around and no, he had developed leaps and bounds over that year and a half. I do think I see some of that with McGroarty. I talked about how I don't think his hockey IQ is on the same level as Sillinger's was, but if you read my posts on Sillinger last year, that's not saying too much. Very few prospects are.

But when you're not a great skater, your hockey IQ has to be through the roof to be an impact player in the NHL. McGroarty's seems good, but I'm not sure it's good enough. The thing I like is every time he moves up to a new level, he seems to struggle at first, but after a little while he figures it out and excels. I said this at the start of the season about him and we're seeing it again in this recent stretch. To me this is a sign that he's able to use his hockey IQ to figure out how to compensate for his skating. I do think he's a fairly safe pick to be a bottom sixer, and I also think there is some room for top six upside. But I also think this is a pretty darn strong draft and that there's some guys like Luneau, Korchinski, Trikozov who are badly under-rated.

But anyway, we can have this conversation again after U18s. Only a week and a half away.
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@ me next time, don’t be afraid.

If you read on in the thread I backtracked and compared him to Colin White instead.

I only used Bowers as a comp because of where I believe he’ll be drafted and Bowers being a “safe” selection at the time.

Colin White is the better comp in all reality. Not the greatest skater, praised before his draft year, good two way game and limited offensive upside.
 
RAFI BOMB said:
It really comes down to what his actual upside is. Stylistically when I watch footage of McGroarty like the video below it reminds me of footage of Brady Tkachuk prior to getting drafted. A lot of Sens fans wanted the Sens to draft other players in the 2018 draft and after Tkachuk got drafted many on here complained about the pick and took a very pessimistic stance. I was a fan of the Tkachuk pick at the time, I was ecstatic when we drafted him and thus far I have been very happy with the player he has become and what player he might become in the future.

If we have a chance to take another Brady Tkachuk type, particularly outside the top 5, I am taking that pick. The only real question for me is what the difference is in upside. If the scouts are convinced that McGroarty has similar upside and similar potential of achieving it then I am all for the pick. I also see some flashes of Mark Stone in his game so he would be another player I would want to compare the upside with, the factors that lead Stone to being successful and whether McGroarty can go on a similar development path. If that is the case then I am all for this pick. Even if the upside is the same and McGroarty legitimately has the potential to be another Tkachuk/Stone, fans on here will complain if we make the pick, claim we passed on better players and then be surprised when the pick turns out to be a very good player.

If on the other hand the scouts determine that his upside is lower than Tkachuk or that he has less of a chance of achieving it then I would adjust his ranking accordingly. I am not advocating for taking a leap on a player from a pure style perspective, I am arguing that if style and upside are legitimately comparable then he is a player I am going to advocate for.




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That’s the beauty of scouting on your own though. You get to call your shot with zero repercussions. Don’t let public rankings determine how you feel about a player. Just because one or two people don’t feel the same way about a player doesn’t mean you should change your opinion. I’m definitely lower than most on McGroatry, I have had him ranked at #31 in my mid term rankings, Meanwhile I have Warren at #9 because of how much I love the player even though you’ll see zero scouting services rate him that high.

If you think that McGroatry is going to be a really good player at the next level good for you homie! I’m just sharing my opinion on the player and I apologize if my opinion came acoss differently.
 
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GermanSpitfire said:
That’s the beauty of scouting on your own though. You get to call your shot with zero repercussions. Don’t let public rankings determine how you feel about a player. Just because one or two people don’t feel the same way about a player doesn’t mean you should change your opinion. I’m definitely lower than most on McGroatry, I have had him ranked at #31 in my mid term rankings, Meanwhile I have Warren at #9 because of how much I love the player even though you’ll see zero scouting services rate him that high.

If you think that McGroatry is going to be a really good player at the next level good for you homie! I’m just sharing my opinion on the player and I apologize if my opinion came acoss differently.
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Warren is criminally under ranked on McKenzie’s list at 59. If he is there with our 2nd Dorion should sprint to stage.
 
Lekkerimäki is probably a realistic comparison. I'm bummed we picked 10th last year we could have picked Eklund :(

Our top six could have been

Tkachuk-Norris-Batherson
Eklund-Stutzle-Lekkerimaki

But alas.
 
GermanSpitfire said:
That’s the beauty of scouting on your own though. You get to call your shot with zero repercussions. Don’t let public rankings determine how you feel about a player. Just because one or two people don’t feel the same way about a player doesn’t mean you should change your opinion. I’m definitely lower than most on McGroatry, I have had him ranked at #31 in my mid term rankings, Meanwhile I have Warren at #9 because of how much I love the player even though you’ll see zero scouting services rate him that high.

If you think that McGroatry is going to be a really good player at the next level good for you homie! I’m just sharing my opinion on the player and I apologize if my opinion came acoss differently.
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Well I am still legitimately interested in actual upside. I value other perspectives on here and they may have some insights that I don't have or know something about certain players that if I knew I would change my opinion (possibly quite substantially) on. For example I may see some more limited footage that leads me to be higher on a specific player, whereas some others on here have seen a few games and there is something in those games they have watched that offered some revealing aspects about that player that would impact where they should be ranked.

There is a certain style of player that I think the Sens should target but I get the argument that we should be cautious about focusing too heavily on style and not sufficiently enough on relative upside. I am not advocating that we should disregard relative upside for style, I am however advocating that if relative upsides are fairly comparable than style/identity should be an influential factor.

I also know that this fanbase (and many others for that matter) tend to be more pessimistic about the upside of gritty players. Tkachuk was an excellent example where the opinions on him pre draft and immediately after he was drafted were not accurate representations of his abilities and potential upside. That leads me to be a bit skeptical of some of the opinions I hear about these kinds of players. It makes me wonder whether those players are actually inferior/limited in their upside or is this another Tkachuk scenario where the upside and potential is there and people are overlooking it and devaluing it.

Finally, as I stated my focus is on playoff style players. I want the players that put up a point or over a point per game on a Stanley Cup run, the players that score 10+ goals. I want the players that dominate game 7's or finish off teams when they are on the verge of elimination. I want the players that if the team is somehow down 3-1 in a series, that they can drive the charge to 3 wins in a row. That when facing elimination these players give heroic performances. The players that can fight through checks to score goals, the players that will win that battle for the loose pucks and make the big plays when it really counts. Those are the players I want. So fundamentally it is about figuring out which prospects have the ability to become those kinds of players and which don't. Personally, I wouldn't even consider the prospects that don't seem like they will be big time playoff performers. Therefore it is about finding those prospects and ranking them accordingly, they are the ones to draft, the rest can be ranked on a separate list to speculate about were players from the primary list will be available.
 
GCK said:
Warren is criminally under ranked on McKenzie’s list at 59. If he is there with our 2nd Dorion should sprint to stage.
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+1 on liking Warren. He looked good in the CHL top prospects game as well imo. I'm surprised he is ranked so low given his size and what seems to be good mobility. If they want him they should take him with their early 2nd.

The Other lengthy RD we don't hear a lot about that is intriguing and could be available there is Sam Rinzel.
Scott Morrow and Jack Peart both drafted in the 2nd round 2021 and jumped into the NCAA and succeeded.
Morrow a 6'2 195lb RD put up 33 pts in 37 games for UMASS. Pretty good.
 
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I don't not like Wright but Slaf pulls out more impressive flashes of brilliance playing against men than Wright does against kids.
 
Agent Zub said:
I don't not like Wright but Slaf pulls out more impressive flashes of brilliance playing against men than Wright does against kids.
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I prefer the potential of Slafkovsky as well but I doubt there is a GM ballsy enough to pass on Wright.
 
aragorn said:
Imagine coming away from the 2022 draft with one of those RD in the top 10 & Noah Warren RD. Kleven & Warren on a 3rd pairing would be intimidating.
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That would be fun to watch. Hopefully Warren doesn’t rise too much after prospects game.
 
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So we can officially kiss that top 5 pick goodbye. Looking like 7-9 is most likely where we're picking so any hope of us landing Jiricek or Nemec is gone. Geekie screams Sens pick but I wouldn't like it.
 
Terrible, terrible to miss a top 5 pick.

My money is now on Brown scoring 3 points every game here on out.

Just so frustrating. Missing out on a "nail in the coffin" piece is just disheartening man. Hopefully we can find our Lundell a bit later.

We might not even get a shot at Lekki. Frustrating we deal with the season we did and win yet again when it doesn't matter.
 
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SquidNasty said:
So we can officially kiss that top 5 pick goodbye. Looking like 7-9 is most likely where we're picking so any hope of us landing Jiricek or Nemec is gone. Geekie screams Sens pick but I wouldn't like it.
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Could still win the lottery. All they've done is move down. Something to reward/entice new ownership.
 
There are still some potential difference makers from #7-#20 i’d say.

This draft isn’t like other years where there is a noticeable drop off after x amount of players.

2020 it was a consensus clear top 12 maybe 13 depending how much you liked Jarvis.

2021 was a clear top-9.

But this year, in 2022 i’d argue there is a top 17/18 that can all go before there is a noticeable drop off.

Nazar, Lekkermaki, Ohgren, Luneau, Yurov, Mesar, Gauthier, Kemmel, Firkus, Mintyukov, Mateychuk the for some Geekie, Lambert are all guys who could be available when the Sens pick and are all guys that can go anywhere from 4 to 20 i’d say and there is a drop off after them.
 
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