Speculation: 2022-23 Sharks Roster Discussion Part II

[TheBeard]

I think he's worth at least a 2nd right now given his bargain contract relative to production. Nobody is going to get any UFA that makes an impact like Barabanov in their top 6/9 for the cap hit that he has.

I'd love Grier to flip Barabanov to Washington for Mantha and a 2024 1st. Washington needs cap space. Mantha hopefully finds his game again and pots some goals in top line minutes in SJ and then gets flipped at the TDL for a 2nd rounder or something with SJ retaining.

I don't think Barb is the kind of guy teams go for until the deadline, but I don't know if I'd be interested in Mantha and his near 6 million dollar hit even if it is one year.

 

[jarr92]

Stats and facts don't care about your feelings on him being horrible. In total, he was ever so slightly below league average in terms of GSAA (-0.7 compared to goalies that were actually terrible this year like Reimer at -19.2 and Kahkonen -25.0) while also trending way up prior to being out for the season (the .922 after his almost 2 week break to reset in November).

Maybe it's just me but I find that phrase so overused and annoying

Adin Hill 21-22:

GAA - 20th
SV% - 40th
Quality Start% - 32nd
GSAx/60 - 48th

IMO GSAx is the best stat to measure a goalie, and he was bad. This is also while playing under Boughner's defensive system. Maybe Hill wasn't terrible, but he was still pretty bad.

 

[Pavelski2112]

Vegas would've won with Cal Petersen in net, their system is built to make average-at-best goalies look good enough. It's Pittsburgh/St. Louis/Chicago (2010) all over again.

You basically don't need an elite #1G to win anymore

 

[STL Shark]

Maybe it's just me but I find that phrase so overused and annoying

Adin Hill 21-22:

GAA - 20th
SV% - 40th
Quality Start% - 32nd
GSAx/60 - 48th

IMO GSAx is the best stat to measure a goalie, and he was bad. This is also while playing under Boughner's defensive system. Maybe Hill wasn't terrible, but he was still pretty bad.

Again, he had a tough start to the season (which I acknowledged). That said, in his final 14 starts after an almost 2 week break to reset, he finished with a .922 save percentage. He was trending closer to the guy that he was for Vegas than the poor goaltender he began his time in SJ being.

 

[STL Shark]

Vegas would've won with Cal Petersen in net, their system is built to make average-at-best goalies look good enough. It's Pittsburgh/St. Louis/Chicago (2010) all over again.

You basically don't need an elite #1G to win anymore

Is that why the Ullmark/Swayman combo went for a .897 under the same system last playoffs in Boston with Cassidy behind the bench? Or why Brossoit was a .894 in his 8 starts this playoffs? Acting like hill was merely passenger due to the system is mostly ignorant. He's not Vasilevsky, Shesterkin, etc. level elite, but he's an above average NHL goalie (albeit one that is about to get way overpaid by someone).

 

[Pavelski2112]

Is that why the Ullmark/Swayman combo went for a .897 under the same system last playoffs in Boston with Cassidy behind the bench? Or why Brossoit was a .894 in his 8 starts this playoffs? Acting like hill was merely passenger due to the system is mostly ignorant. He's not Vasilevsky, Shesterkin, etc. level elite, but he's an above average NHL goalie (albeit one that is about to get way overpaid by someone).

Fair but that doesn't change my point that you don't need a guy playing like Bob did to win in the playoffs if you have a good system and a lot of depth.

 

[jarr92]

Again, he had a tough start to the season (which I acknowledged). That said, in his final 14 starts after an almost 2 week break to reset, he finished with a .922 save percentage. He was trending closer to the guy that he was for Vegas than the poor goaltender he began his time in SJ being.

You can do some selective date cherry picking and selective cut off points til the cows come home

There's a reason Hill was traded for a 2024 4th round pick after fetching a 2nd one year prior, but okay.

 

[STL Shark]

There's a reason Hill was traded for a 2024 4th round pick after fetching a 2nd one year prior, but okay.

The ole appeal to authority fallacy.

 

[timorous me]

Is that why the Ullmark/Swayman combo went for a .897 under the same system last playoffs in Boston with Cassidy behind the bench? Or why Brossoit was a .894 in his 8 starts this playoffs? Acting like hill was merely passenger due to the system is mostly ignorant. He's not Vasilevsky, Shesterkin, etc. level elite, but he's an above average NHL goalie (albeit one that is about to get way overpaid by someone).

I don’t think I’d go so far as to call him above average. Maybe more like someone who’s capable of playing at an above average level for a period of time. You’ve got to do this for an extended period of time to actually earn that label.

 

[jarr92]

The ole appeal to authority fallacy.

I just gave you a bunch of stats proving he was bad over the whole season. The fact he was better towards the end, but still had bad numbers overall, only proves he was quite bad before the last stretch. How is that not clear? But based on my above post re: cherry picking stats it's obvious you're not arguing in good faith, so please continue if you'd like.

 

[Grinner]

Fascinating. If Sharks like Michkov enough (or I guess Leonard or Reinbacher) and are willing to make the trade, what can Montreal offer? The 31st pick, 5th pick and a prospect?

As it leaves the Sharks out in the cold of top C prospects. I'd ask for Beck to be thst prospect

 

[OrrNumber4]

Vegas would've won with Cal Petersen in net, their system is built to make average-at-best goalies look good enough. It's Pittsburgh/St. Louis/Chicago (2010) all over again.

You basically don't need an elite #1G to win anymore

Let me push back on that. When's the last time an "average" goalie won a cup? In the past four decades, only Hill, Murray, Niemi, and Binnington come to mind, and Murray, Niemi, and Binnington played very well in the years following a cup win. It's fair to say that an elite goalie isn't required, but good luck winning with just an average one.

 

[Jargon]

Since we’re in purgatory, waiting for the draft and watching the worst team ever win a cup, I figured I’d ask: what do you all think Grier is going to do this summer?

I have a feeling he’s actually going to try and fill some holes by trying to sign and trade for young(ish) guys that are other team’s cap casualties. I think last year he chiefly wanted to just steady the boat, let prospects develop and get his own footing, this year I think…

-He’s going to try and reshape our D to make it… an actual D-corp. I saw a rumor he was interested in Gryzelcek, so I can see moves like that. I imagine Vlasic, Thrun, Khnyzov and probably Benning are for sure staying. I can see a possible Ferraro trade during the draft if there’s a legit offer. But I can see him bringing in a couple of higher end guys to finally shore the D up.

-For offense, I suspect that he’ll similarly aim for younger guys but I think he’s gonna aim for more skill on the wings this time - help out Hertl/Couture and get more scoring. The fact is, we can make a pretty good third and fourth line — especially if we can bring in a couple of skill guys that push others down.

I can see Karlsson, Labanc, and Ferraro all traded.

 

[hohosaregood]

Let me push back on that. When's the last time an "average" goalie won a cup? In the past four decades, only Hill, Murray, Niemi, and Binnington come to mind, and Murray, Niemi, and Binnington played very well in the years following a cup win. It's fair to say that an elite goalie isn't required, but good luck winning with just an average one.

I think he's just saying that Vegas was absurdly dominant as a team this season. Look at this heat map of the chances. Vegas absolutely closed off the slot this series. Just about any goalie would've done the job for them but he did have a strong run

 

[Pinkfloyd]

Let me push back on that. When's the last time an "average" goalie won a cup? In the past four decades, only Hill, Murray, Niemi, and Binnington come to mind, and Murray, Niemi, and Binnington played very well in the years following a cup win. It's fair to say that an elite goalie isn't required, but good luck winning with just an average one.

The past four decades includes two pre-cap decades which is entirely irrelevant to now. In the cap era, it's pretty well-established that an average goalie is capable of going on a run just long enough to let the team in front of him take care of business. Calling Hill anything but average at this stage is pretty silly. The other goalies are also pretty average. The entire reason why they're able to play well and then have a lot that indicate that they weren't playing well for stretches is because that's what average goalies do. Good, great, and elite goalies have longer more consistent stretches in their careers. If you're in a competitive position and can keep that sort of talent around you do so but it's pretty much the last thing you need to worry about when building a team from scratch at this stage.

 

[themelkman]

Since we’re in purgatory, waiting for the draft and watching the worst team ever win a cup, I figured I’d ask: what do you all think Grier is going to do this summer?

I have a feeling he’s actually going to try and fill some holes by trying to sign and trade for young(ish) guys that are other team’s cap casualties. I think last year he chiefly wanted to just steady the boat, let prospects develop and get his own footing, this year I think…

-He’s going to try and reshape our D to make it… an actual D-corp. I saw a rumor he was interested in Gryzelcek, so I can see moves like that. I imagine Vlasic, Thrun, Khnyzov and probably Benning are for sure staying. I can see a possible Ferraro trade during the draft if there’s a legit offer. But I can see him bringing in a couple of higher end guys to finally shore the D up.

-For offense, I suspect that he’ll similarly aim for younger guys but I think he’s gonna aim for more skill on the wings this time - help out Hertl/Couture and get more scoring. The fact is, we can make a pretty good third and fourth line — especially if we can bring in a couple of skill guys that push others down.

I can see Karlsson, Labanc, and Ferraro all traded.

I think it would be wise to expect a few more Kunin - Lindblom esc players. If these ones will be better than the last set idk, but that playstyle and skillset is what he likes.

 

[Hodge]

I could see Grier trading a future 2nd for Trent Frederic which will be widely panned but could end up being a solid move. He will probably try to sign a top six winger to “replace” Timo but I’m not sure which one would agree to sign with SJ on a 2 or 3 year deal.

Not sold on the Karlsson trade happening. Now that Edmonton is out of the running there doesn’t seem to be an obvious fit.

Random specific prediction: Grier signs Joey Daccord to back up Kahkonen. Massachusetts guy who’s about to win a Calder Cup with the Kraken affiliate and will be a relatively young UFA.

 

[TheBeard]

I could see Grier trading a future 2nd for Trent Frederic which will be widely panned but could end up being a solid move. He will probably try to sign a top six winger to “replace” Timo but I’m not sure which one would agree to sign with SJ on a 2 or 3 year deal.

Not sold on the Karlsson trade happening. Now that Edmonton is out of the running there doesn’t seem to be an obvious fit.

Random specific prediction: Grier signs Joey Daccord to back up Kahkonen. Massachusetts guy who’s about to win a Calder Cup with the Kraken affiliate and will be a relatively young UFA.

I don't hate Frederic. I dunno if a 2nd is worth it considering it'll be a high 2nd for the next few years.

 

[Pavelski2112]

Frederic would be fine, I guess. Basically just getting back the 1st from the Jones trade.

 

[Grinner]

Meh on Frédéric. He's more hype than productive

 

[Jargon]

I think it would be wise to expect a few more Kunin - Lindblom esc players. If these ones will be better than the last set idk, but that playstyle and skillset is what he likes.

I suspect he wanted those guys because they were easy to get and would mean Bordeleau isn’t playing 3rd line minutes when he’s not ready. There was also an outside chance that Lindblom might find his game a bit more.

I know Grier likes guys like that but I think we’re judging him a bit prematurely based on those signings. He’s mentioned that he wants to start adding some skill to the team and I think this summer we may see some more of that. He’s not going to break the bank or anything but I can see him making a few choice moves to try and get a young top 6 guy or two.

 

[themelkman]

I suspect he wanted those guys because they were easy to get and would mean Bordeleau isn’t playing 3rd line minutes when he’s not ready. There was also an outside chance that Lindblom might find his game a bit more.

I know Grier likes guys like that but I think we’re judging him a bit prematurely based on those signings. He’s mentioned that he wants to start adding some skill to the team and I think this summer we may see some more of that. He’s not going to break the bank or anything but I can see him making a few choice moves to try and get a young top 6 guy or two.

I guess we have to wait and see what kind of sway this new scouting team and analytics guy have on the team. Finding undervalued players is not easy to do, and everyone always thinks they are doing it when most are just getting the same or worse players.

 

[Shark Finn]

Seems totally fake, but if so I wonder what they would give up to get 4. I would love this because then we could draft Michkov anyways

To be honest, if it was for certain that Grier was picking either Smith or Michkov at four, moving down for the right price would be great - just pick the one that's left at 5th. But if Grier is set on not picking Michkov, then just stand pat and pick Smith at 4, especially if he's Montreals target.

 

[Jargon]

I think Grier should trade down to 5Th to give Montreal a chance to take Smith, but then trade up to 3rd and take him anyway just because it would be hilarious.

 

[Shark Finn]

I think Grier should trade down to 5Th to give Montreal a chance to take Smith, but then trade up to 3rd and take him anyway just because it would be hilarious.

I'm sure the Habs would be furious picking Leo Carlsson.