Speculation: 2022-23 Sharks Roster Discussion Part II

[Cas]

I don't see a reason to spend anything to move Vlasic. We can always waive him if we need the roster space.

I doubt Grier sees it that way, though.

 

[STL Shark]

I believe it. Kent Hughes was Smith’s youth coach in Boston. Seriously doubt we’d trade back though since it sounds like Smith is Grier’s guy too.

Or could be posturing to drive up the price on a trade back. Too early into Grier's tenure to know how he operates in these scenarios.

If it were to happen, guessing the deal would be 5th overall, 31st overall, and MTL's 3rd rounder (or 2nd rounder next year) for 4th overall and SJ 5th rounder or something like that. Wouldn't hate Mesar instead of the future picks, but his production has been pretty meh as he was basically only a PPG guy in the OHL as a D+1 player this year.

I think I would be inclined to take a deal to move back if you're also trading Karlsson as that would all but assure that you're picking right back here at the top of the draft next year (likely anyway, but that would make it more apparent that the path is 3-4 years out). Would basically have at least 8 picks in the top 2 rounds of the next 2 drafts.

If we project that we do reasonably well on those 8 picks, we'd have 4 future core pieces to build around to go along with Eklund, Bystedt, Thrun?, and Muk (plus whatever young player comes from the EK65 deal). Would be a nice way to build out the organization in Grier's image given he hated the prospect pool that he inherited.

 

[themelkman]

I believe it. Kent Hughes was Smith’s youth coach in Boston. Seriously doubt we’d trade back though since it sounds like Smith is Grier’s guy too.

Or maybe Grier is smarter than we give him credit for and hes saying that to up the price.

I sure hope so

 

[Pinkfloyd]

They had like 10 picks last year and something like 12 this season. They’ll probably get even more as they sell off other pieces like Karlsson and maybe even Ferraro. At a certain point it’s just overkill.

That's when you use the picks to move up or trade for next year's picks for better talent opportunities. Using it to pay another team to retain for a couple months is pretty wasteful to me considering where our team is at.

 

[TheBeard]

That's when you use the picks to move up or trade for next year's picks for better talent opportunities. Using it to pay another team to retain for a couple months is pretty wasteful to me considering where our team is at.

Well if you can dump a 1 million dollar retention spot for a 5th and then use that same third retention spot for 3-4 million for a 3rd, it’s basically the same. No?

Or maybe Grier is smarter than we give him credit for and hes saying that to up the price.

I sure hope so

Honestly I’m at the point where I’d rather Grier send off a smokescreen in the hopes of getting Montréal to pony up a pick to flip positions, even if it’s only a 3rd.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

Well if you can dump a 1 million dollar retention spot for a 5th and then use that same third retention spot for 3-4 million for a 3rd, it’s basically the same. No?

I think I need clarification on what you mean by this choice. So we trade a 5th to have someone retain 1 mil for us and retain 3-4 mil to acquire a 3rd round pick? Is that what you're saying here?

 

[themelkman]

Well if you can dump a 1 million dollar retention spot for a 5th and then use that same third retention spot for 3-4 million for a 3rd, it’s basically the same. No?


Honestly I’m at the point where I’d rather Grier send off a smokescreen in the hopes of getting Montréal to pony up a pick to flip positions, even if it’s only a 3rd.

See it all depends what his plan is.

If hes doing this to take Michkov, then what we get in the swap is negligible to me because we should take him 4 anyways and we know MTL wont.

If hes going to take Leonard or Reinbacher, it better be 31+

 

[TheBeard]

See it all depends what his plan is.

If hes doing this to take Michkov, then what we get in the swap is negligible to me because we should take him 4 anyways and we know MTL wont.

If hes going to take Leonard or Reinbacher, it better be 31+

I think it’s more if he’s opting between Smith and Michkov knowing Montréal wants Smith (if true).

 

[TheBeard]

I think I need clarification on what you mean by this choice. So we trade a 5th to have someone retain 1 mil for us and retain 3-4 mil to acquire a 3rd round pick? Is that what you're saying here?

Trade one of our players and instead of retaining on them we trade that retention spot to someone else for a late round pick, and then play broker of our own by taking back a bigger cap hit retention for a better pick.

 

[Jargon]

If Grier and staff plan on taking Michkov and know Montreal want Smith, sending a smokescreen to lure them into a trade would be brilliant. Hell, maybe that's where the Sheng rumor of Smith coming to SJ came from (especially since Smith denied it). If that's the plan and they can get another 1st/prospect/whatever for the pick, it'd be a great move.

The thing I worry about is them picking Leonard or Reinbacher at 5, instead of Michkov, which.. they seem great, I'm just far less excited about them than I am for Smith.

 

[Mr Fahrenheit]

Getting paid to take Michkov would be a dream scenario

 

[jarr92]

The problem with players like Zetterlund, Peterson, and Kaut is that they do nothing particularly well at the NHL level. They're all fine - no obvious weaknesses - but none of them have a real plus NHL skill that allows them to fill a top six role. This allows them to be good at the AHL level, but not so much in the NHL.

Zetterlund was nothing special in his first two years in the AHL (combined 15 G - 23 A in 80 GP), and then had 24 G - 28 A in 58 games last season, at the age of 22. Dylan Gambrell had 20 G - 25 A in 51 games at exactly the same age in his AHL rookie year. Now, that's obviously cherry-picking, but Gambrell has sort of the same problem as Zetterlund, in that he just doesn't do anything particularly well - he's a decent skater but nothing special, doesn't have much of a shot, isn't strong, doesn't win faceoffs, not much of a passer or offensively creative. They're really not that dissimilar in this sense - they don't have anything that can fit in a top six role, they're just kind of there, taking up space and sometimes picking up points. On a good team, players like this are in the bottom six if they're not on the bench. They're not quite replacement level, but they're not far from it.

We shouldn't expect anything really interesting from any of them.

So if a forward isn't on the top 6 they have no value? A bit confused with the reasoning here. Also, just because Gambrell sucks doesn't mean those players will as well. That's just one example. I really don't see how those players compare. Peterson's a much better playmaker, Zetterlund is much bigger and has a better shot. I'd argue Kaut is the only one that hasn't proven himself as better than Gambrell, and even he looked better in teal than Gambrell ever did.

In terms of offense, Peterson has 15 less points than Gambrell in 156 less games. Zetterlund has 9 less points in 152 less games. Maybe those players were similar in the AHL, but they are clearly both better than Gambrell as NHLers.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

Trade one of our players and instead of retaining on them we trade that retention spot to someone else for a late round pick, and then play broker of our own by taking back a bigger cap hit retention for a better pick.

If that sort of thing is on the table where we'd be upgrading the pick then sure but the Kane deal netted Arizona a late 3rd to retain 5.25 mil at the deadline. Looking down the line, it doesn't seem likely to have such a move be available then. Wheeler is probably the most expensive rental where 50% will be around 4.1 mil. When you get to that level, a 4th round pick is about what to expect. I suspect Barabanov's straight across is a 3rd round pick. I believe our ability to retain 50% on him could upgrade that pick to a 2nd. I'd rather do that over even paying a 5th to have someone else retain on Barabanov where we'd probably still just get a 3rd rounder out of it.

 

[Cas]

So if a forward isn't on the top 6 they have no value? A bit confused with the reasoning here. Also, just because Gambrell sucks doesn't mean those players will as well. That's just one example. I really don't see how those players compare. Peterson's a much better playmaker, Zetterlund is much bigger and has a better shot. I'd argue Kaut is the only one that hasn't proven himself as better than Gambrell, and even he looked better in teal than Gambrell ever did.

In terms of offense, Peterson has 15 less points than Gambrell in 156 less games. Zetterlund has 9 less points in 152 less games. Maybe those players were similar in the AHL, but they are clearly both better than Gambrell as NHLers.

No, it's not that players who aren't top six are not valuable. It's that players who don't have above-average skills somewhere don't belong in the top six (which is broad and depends on the player and skills in question).

Gambrell does suck, but my point there is more that good AHL results don't really indicate a player is a legitimate NHL talent. I think players like that are those that don't have glaring weaknesses at the pro level, but also don't have any real strengths - that's good enough to succeed against similar players and a mix of prospects who will never make it, but little more.

Just because Zetterlund was nearly PPG at age 22 in his third AHL season doesn't mean he's going to even be a 40 point scorer in the NHL - I think he tops out as a mediocre third-line option (fourth line on a contender). I think the same of Pederson, and I think Kaut is a depth fourth liner (the sort of guy who, on a contender, plays 35 games and has a 50/50 shot of being waived in any given year). None of them are really actually good at anything - nothing you would consider notably good at the NHL level. That doesn't make them valueless, it just makes them mediocre and unsuited for a top six role.

 

[Sharkz4Fun]

I don't agree. There's a reason to buy out Simek. There's a reason to buy out Vlasic. There's a reason to buy out Labanc. It's just dependent on if they need the space created in Grier's mind or not. Whether that space is in the lineup or on the cap.

Thought we were finally done with arguing against these buyouts. Him not buying anyone out makes me think Grier either A: Plans to tank harder next year, meaning there is no chance Karlsson is not traded or B: Has no plan. You don't go into a season with any intention of even being somewhat competitive knowing you are wasting over 15m across 4 guys who, even at their peak values, will net nothing in return, and they still have enough talent to be better than ANA/PHI/AZ etc. so at the same time, they would not be actively tanking. Labanc should be bought out, and I don't see a logical scenario where they don't buy Simek out if he's healthy enough because the last thing they want is an entire roster of LHD and Benning.

 

[Hodge]

Thought we were finally done with arguing against these buyouts. Him not buying anyone out makes me think Grier either A: Plans to tank harder next year, meaning there is no chance Karlsson is not traded or B: Has no plan. You don't go into a season with any intention of even being somewhat competitive knowing you are wasting over 15m across 4 guys who, even at their peak values, will net nothing in return, and they still have enough talent to be better than ANA/PHI/AZ etc. so at the same time, they would not be actively tanking. Labanc should be bought out, and I don't see a logical scenario where they don't buy Simek out if he's healthy enough because the last thing they want is an entire roster of LHD and Benning.

We can just waive Simek and save roughly as much money as the buyout without the extra year of having him on the books.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

We can just waive Simek and save roughly as much money as the buyout without the extra year of having him on the books.

They could but the extra year of him on the books is negligible. I think the depth of defensemen that they ought to give as many opportunities as possible should trigger getting rid of Simek through whichever means are available. If he can't be traded, they should buy him out and let him pursue opportunities elsewhere.

 

[PacificOceanPotion]

Unreal scenario for a team to pay you to take Michkov lol…Who am I kidding. Grier would pick Leonard at 5.

 

[Hodge]

They could but the extra year of him on the books is negligible. I think the depth of defensemen that they ought to give as many opportunities as possible should trigger getting rid of Simek through whichever means are available. If he can't be traded, they should buy him out and let him pursue opportunities elsewhere.

I guess so but Simek can play his off side and I'm pretty sure the Barracuda have 0 RD signed as of right now (at least to NHL SPCs). Might be worth having him around to play caddie for Mukh or Kniazev.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

I guess so but Simek can play his off side and I'm pretty sure the Barracuda have 0 RD signed as of right now (at least to NHL SPCs). Might be worth having him around to play caddie for Mukh or Kniazev.

Maybe. I'm alright with either way they'd decide to go on these buyout possibilities. I'm more concerned about moving Karlsson and who they pick at 4 more than anything else right now.

 

[jarr92]

No, it's not that players who aren't top six are not valuable. It's that players who don't have above-average skills somewhere don't belong in the top six (which is broad and depends on the player and skills in question).

Gambrell does suck, but my point there is more that good AHL results don't really indicate a player is a legitimate NHL talent. I think players like that are those that don't have glaring weaknesses at the pro level, but also don't have any real strengths - that's good enough to succeed against similar players and a mix of prospects who will never make it, but little more.

Just because Zetterlund was nearly PPG at age 22 in his third AHL season doesn't mean he's going to even be a 40 point scorer in the NHL - I think he tops out as a mediocre third-line option (fourth line on a contender). I think the same of Pederson, and I think Kaut is a depth fourth liner (the sort of guy who, on a contender, plays 35 games and has a 50/50 shot of being waived in any given year). None of them are really actually good at anything - nothing you would consider notably good at the NHL level. That doesn't make them valueless, it just makes them mediocre and unsuited for a top six role.

I agree with most of that. I just couldn't take the Gambrell comparison Although I will say Peterson was pretty decent in his 11 games with the Sharks. I could see him being a middle-six complementary 40pt playmaker type.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

I agree with most of that. I just couldn't take the Gambrell comparison Although I will say Peterson was pretty decent in his 11 games with the Sharks. I could see him being a middle-six complementary 40pt playmaker type.

Peterson did more in his 11 games than Gambrell has done his entire career. Peterson at least has a tangible impact when he's on the ice. Gambrell pretty much just floated.

 

[TheBeard]

If that sort of thing is on the table where we'd be upgrading the pick then sure but the Kane deal netted Arizona a late 3rd to retain 5.25 mil at the deadline. Looking down the line, it doesn't seem likely to have such a move be available then. Wheeler is probably the most expensive rental where 50% will be around 4.1 mil. When you get to that level, a 4th round pick is about what to expect. I suspect Barabanov's straight across is a 3rd round pick. I believe our ability to retain 50% on him could upgrade that pick to a 2nd. I'd rather do that over even paying a 5th to have someone else retain on Barabanov where we'd probably still just get a 3rd rounder out of it.

If Barb has another solid season I can easily see him worth a second with no retention at the deadline.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

If Barb has another solid season I can easily see him worth a second with no retention at the deadline.

Maybe and maybe not. It's hard to expect Barabanov to have another solid year if Karlsson is gone along with Meier.

 

[STL Shark]

If Barb has another solid season I can easily see him worth a second with no retention at the deadline.

I think he's worth at least a 2nd right now given his bargain contract relative to production. Nobody is going to get any UFA that makes an impact like Barabanov in their top 6/9 for the cap hit that he has.

I'd love Grier to flip Barabanov to Washington for Mantha and a 2024 1st. Washington needs cap space. Mantha hopefully finds his game again and pots some goals in top line minutes in SJ and then gets flipped at the TDL for a 2nd rounder or something with SJ retaining.