Speculation: 2022-23 Sharks Roster Discussion Part II

[CupfortheSharks]

The obvious next step is to trade Karlsson at the draft. I think our best use of cap space may be to trade him at 50% retained to maximize his value. Karlsson at 5.75 cap hit should bring back some nice futures. I hope Grier finds the best deal he can get and pulls the trigger. Just like he did with Meier and Burns.

 

[Jargon]

I just have no attachment to any current player. I remember being quite crushed when Owen Nolan was traded to the Leafs, despite it probably being the best thing to do. Never wanted Nabby, Patty or the Joes to leave the org. But now, there isn't a single player on the team that would bum me out if they are gone. Which doesn't help when the team is awful as well. I have never felt so apathetic about the team. Even with the prospects. I look around the league and I see point per game players popping up everywhere driving excitement. Players you are excited to play as in the next NHL videogame and stuff. My excitement level for this franchise has never been lower.

I have a feeling the draft is going to be another thing that doesn't go our way, we will draft some super underwhelming guy whose grit and leadership are lauded as his main attributes and we are going to just try to desperately reach for the lowest rung of mediocrity for the next decade. Really need some spark in this org.

I really like Eklund, he’s very easy to cheer for. I’ve liked Hertl every season but this one. Knyzhov is a great story (though if he was dealt I wouldn’t be crushed or anything). I think Thrun is going to become pretty well-loved, and if Bordeleau, Guschin and Robins manage to take the next step, I’ll be excited to cheer for them (Guschin I like the most).

It’s hard to compare this group to our team with Marleau, Thornton and Pavelski - those were some of our very best teams competing at very high levels. This team is the little sprout that still needs a ton of time to grow into an actual tree.

That said, I think Grier and co. are moving in the right direction and I think the next couple of summers will be fun to watch as he continues to build us back up.

 

[Alaskanice]

I really like Eklund, he’s very easy to cheer for. I’ve liked Hertl every season but this one. Knyzhov is a great story (though if he was dealt I wouldn’t be crushed or anything). I think Thrun is going to become pretty well-loved, and if Bordeleau, Guschin and Robins manage to take the next step, I’ll be excited to cheer for them (Guschin I like the most).

It’s hard to compare this group to our team with Marleau, Thornton and Pavelski - those were some of our very best teams competing at very high levels. This team is the little sprout that still needs a ton of time to grow into an actual tree.

That said, I think Grier and co. are moving in the right direction and I think the next couple of summers will be fun to watch as he continues to build us back up.

The cycle of hockey.

 

[Jargon]

The cycle of hockey.

Yeah, we’ve been spoiled by a historically good run. I do wish DW understood what was happening and started the rebuild faster and more aggressively so we’d be much further ahead now that we are but it is what it is. I think a combination of trying to please Hasso and him becoming complacent ultimately brought us here.

I will say I’m a thousand times more hopeful going into this summer than I was last summer.

 

[Alaskanice]

Yeah, we’ve been spoiled by a historically good run. I do wish DW understood what was happening and started the rebuild faster and more aggressively so we’d be much further ahead now that we are but it is what it is. I think a combination of trying to please Hasso and him becoming complacent ultimately brought us here.

I will say I’m a thousand times more hopeful going into this summer than I was last summer.

My belief is that DW felt the need to win it all because teams that entered after us won it all. I imagine that is a huge deal.

 

[gaucholoco3]

The obvious next step is to trade Karlsson at the draft. I think our best use of cap space may be to trade him at 50% retained to maximize his value. Karlsson at 5.75 cap hit should bring back some nice futures. I hope Grier finds the best deal he can get and pulls the trigger. Just like he did with Meier and

While a lot of people hate the idea of paying a player 5.75 million to play for another team, I just don’t see the point of only retaining 20% or 30%. If the team is committed to being a cap team (which Hasso has been) then retaining salary doesn’t add costs for the owner in a way that buy outs do (buy outs clear cap space so the new cap space is then used by new players). By retaining 50% the value of a trade is maximized. Also without Meier the sharks have easily 6-8 million in cap space without moving EK or anyone else under contract.

This is why I only see to logical paths for EK. Either keep him to help develop players in the system they are trying run long term, or trade him with 50% retention. Anything else creates a massive opportunity cost and doesn’t maximize the value of a Norris winning defenseman.

I hope that Grier taking a more analytical approach can see that and execute.

 

[Gecklund]

The obvious next step is to trade Karlsson at the draft. I think our best use of cap space may be to trade him at 50% retained to maximize his value. Karlsson at 5.75 cap hit should bring back some nice futures. I hope Grier finds the best deal he can get and pulls the trigger. Just like he did with Meier and Burns.

We don’t have the cap space to do that.

 

[Cas]

We don’t have the cap space to do that.

I don't see why. Trade Karlsson at 50%, acquire some garbage defenseman for cheap to simply soak up minutes, lose every game.

 

[Gecklund]

I don't see why. Trade Karlsson at 50%, acquire some garbage defenseman for cheap to simply soak up minutes, lose every game.

Because the other team would likely have send close to that 5.75 back to us. So we’d basically still have the full Karlsson contract on the books. That in addition to the raises for our FAs and with the assumption that Grier will sign at least one UFA, we would have negative cap space.

 

[Alaskanice]

I don't see why. Trade Karlsson at 50%, acquire some garbage defenseman for cheap to simply soak up minutes, lose every game.

Lose every game? Come on, man.

 

[Cas]

Because the other team would likely have send close to that 5.75 back to us. So we’d basically still have the full Karlsson contract on the books. That in addition to the raises for our FAs and with the assumption that Grier will sign at least one UFA, we would have negative cap space.

We trade him to some other team that can afford the $5.75, we buy out pointless contracts like Lindblom and/or Simek, we don't bother signing any pricy UFAs because we are going to lose every game anyway, and we don't bother resigning any FAs who cost real money because none of them are worth more than $1M anyway.

Lose every game? Come on, man.

Without Karlsson, our best puck mover is Matt @?#&$+! Benning. We won't literally lose every single game, but we're going to be worse than we were this year, which was virtually the worst team in the league despite one of the most ludicrously productive seasons by a defenseman in history.

 

[Gecklund]

We trade him to some other team that can afford the $5.75, we buy out pointless contracts like Lindblom and/or Simek, we don't bother signing any pricy UFAs because we are going to lose every game anyway, and we don't bother resigning any FAs who cost real money because none of them are worth more than $1M anyway.

How many teams can afford that without dumping anything AND have a need AND Karlsson would waive for AND have the pieces to make it work?

I fully understand and agree with your overall point. I just don’t think it’s realistic.

 

[Alaskanice]

We trade him to some other team that can afford the $5.75, we buy out pointless contracts like Lindblom and/or Simek, we don't bother signing any pricy UFAs because we are going to lose every game anyway, and we don't bother resigning any FAs who cost real money because none of them are worth more than $1M anyway.



Without Karlsson, our best puck mover is Matt @?#&$+! Benning. We won't literally lose every single game, but we're going to be worse than we were this year, which was virtually the worst team in the league despite one of the most ludicrously productive seasons by a defenseman in history.

We trade him to some other team that can afford the $5.75, we buy out pointless contracts like Lindblom and/or Simek, we don't bother signing any pricy UFAs because we are going to lose every game anyway, and we don't bother resigning any FAs who cost real money because none of them are worth more than $1M anyway.



Without Karlsson, our best puck mover is Matt @?#&$+! Benning. We won't literally lose every single game, but we're going to be worse than we were this year, which was virtually the worst team in the league despite one of the most ludicrously productive seasons by a defenseman in history.

There is still an off-season. Nothing is in stasis.

 

[Cas]

There is still an off-season. Nothing is in stasis.

Nothing is in stasis, so my point is that we can afford to move Karlsson, even at 50% retained.

We are still going to suck, though - unless we get lucky on multiple lottery tickets (by which I mean not just Bedard, but also guys like Makiniemi/Chrona, Eklund/Bordeleau/Gushchin/Robins, and Thrun/Mukhamadullin/Laroque immediately turning into all-star quality players) we are pretty much stuck with unreliable goaltending, poor depth in all skater ranks, and a deficit of quality top-six forwards and puckmoving defensemen. We don't have to like it, but we do have to accept it and hope that management has a good plan.

 

[Alaskanice]

Nothing is in stasis, so my point is that we can afford to move Karlsson, even at 50% retained.

We are still going to suck, though - unless we get lucky on multiple lottery tickets (by which I mean not just Bedard, but also guys like Makiniemi/Chrona, Eklund/Bordeleau/Gushchin/Robins, and Thrun/Mukhamadullin/Laroque immediately turning into all-star quality players) we are pretty much stuck with unreliable goaltending, poor depth in all skater ranks, and a deficit of quality top-six forwards and puckmoving defensemen. We don't have to like it, but we do have to accept it and hope that management has a good plan.

I’m going to wait until after all of this happens instead of deciding at this point that it all sucks.

 

[CupfortheSharks]

Because the other team would likely have send close to that 5.75 back to us. So we’d basically still have the full Karlsson contract on the books. That in addition to the raises for our FAs and with the assumption that Grier will sign at least one UFA, we would have negative cap space.

CapFriendly shows us 68,532,501 committed to cap next year.

That includes Hertl, Couture, Labanc, Lindblom, Barabonov, Sturm, Lorentz, Kunin, Karlsson, Vlasic, Ferraro, Simek, Benning, Thrun, Knyzhov, MacDonald, Kahkonen, and Burns/Balcers/Jones.

Trade Karlsson while retaining 50% 68.5-5.75= 62,782,501 committed for next year with a roster of 8 forwards, 7 defenseman, and 1 goalie.

With the cap at 83.5, that leaves 20M. Zetterlund, Gregor, and Peterson will need new contracts if he wants them back and he needs to sign a goalie. That is going to leave a significant amount of room to take back some cap and do whatever upgrades he chooses.

Grier can absolutely trade Karlsson at 50% if thats what he wants to do.

 

[gaucholoco3]

CapFriendly shows us 68,532,501 committed to cap next year.

That includes Hertl, Couture, Labanc, Lindblom, Barabonov, Sturm, Lorentz, Kunin, Karlsson, Vlasic, Ferraro, Simek, Benning, Thrun, Knyzhov, MacDonald, Kahkonen, and Burns/Balcers/Jones.

Trade Karlsson while retaining 50% 68.5-5.75= 62,782,501 committed for next year with a roster of 8 forwards, 7 defenseman, and 1 goalie.

With the cap at 83.5, that leaves 20M. Zetterlund, Gregor, and Peterson will need new contracts if he wants them back and he needs to sign a goalie. That is going to leave a significant amount of room to take back some cap and do whatever upgrades he chooses.

Grier can absolutely trade Karlsson at 50% if thats what he wants to do.

Yes this exactly. The Sharks are no longer a cap strapped team. They have a lot of cap flexibility especially when winning and building a contender next year is not the priority.

I really want them to take on 1-2 year bad contracts for assets. Could they get a 1st for Matt Murray?

Also if a team wants to send back 5.75 mil in bad contracts back then they need to pay at least 4 1st round picks to do that in addition to EK at 5.75 mil.

If the sharks are willing to retain 50% they could get a massive bidding war because the reigning Norris winner at that cap hit could be one of the best non EL cap hits in the league.

 

[Hodge]

Yes this exactly. The Sharks are no longer a cap strapped team. They have a lot of cap flexibility especially when winning and building a contender next year is not the priority.

I really want them to take on 1-2 year bad contracts for assets. Could they get a 1st for Matt Murray?

Also if a team wants to send back 5.75 mil in bad contracts back then they need to pay at least 4 1st round picks to do that in addition to EK at 5.75 mil.

If the sharks are willing to retain 50% they could get a massive bidding war because the reigning Norris winner at that cap hit could be one of the best non EL cap hits in the league.

Cal Petersen, Josh Bailey and Tyler Myers are the big offseason acquisitions I have my eye on.

Don't think there will be much of a bidding war for Karlsson at any price since he and his agent can pick a landing spot. We're obviously going to get more than a 3rd and a couple of depth players but it's similar to the Burns trade in that regard only Karlsson has even more leverage with the ironclad NMC.

 

[Cas]

If any of our free agents wants more than $1M to stay, we should let them walk. Not one of them has proved to be worth all that much more than league minimum and they could all be replaced with cheap guys or internal replacements. We shouldn't be spending a lot on external free agents anyway.

Weaponizing our cap space for cap dumps that also happen to fill a position is good. I like the 1st + Murray idea, if that's plausible.

 

[gaucholoco3]

Cal Petersen, Josh Bailey and Tyler Myers are the big offseason acquisitions I have my eye on.

Don't think there will be much of a bidding war for Karlsson at any price since he and his agent can pick a landing spot. We're obviously going to get more than a 3rd and a couple of depth players but it's similar to the Burns trade in that regard only Karlsson has even more leverage with the ironclad NMC.

And if that is the return I think EK provides more value to drive offense and put young players in a position to succeed. I know it raises the floor of the team but there needs to be some skill on the backend to get the puck to the forwards. If keeping EK I would run the Tank commander and Makiniemi to keep the team in the bottom 5.

 

[STL Shark]

The obvious next step is to trade Karlsson at the draft. I think our best use of cap space may be to trade him at 50% retained to maximize his value. Karlsson at 5.75 cap hit should bring back some nice futures. I hope Grier finds the best deal he can get and pulls the trigger. Just like he did with Meier and Burns.

Nobody is signing off on paying that money for a player to not play for your team. It's just never going to happen. Even if Hasso signed off on it, Grier would have to get insane compensation to do so (something like a 1st round pick per year based on the comp of Marleau as a cap dump from Toronto to Carolina for buyout purposes prior to the COVID flat cap).

So before you get into acquiring value for Karlsson's value as a player, you're already starting with 4 1st round picks just in salary cap retention. There is not a team in the league trading for that and the Sharks are not going to be the team that sets precedent of selling cap space for pennies on the dollar.

 

[hotcabbagesoup]

Ehrhoff signing alert!!!

He wears spectacles now, apparently to help him with shot accuracy

 

[Hodge]

And if that is the return I think EK provides more value to drive offense and put young players in a position to succeed. I know it raises the floor of the team but there needs to be some skill on the backend to get the puck to the forwards. If keeping EK I would run the Tank commander and Makiniemi to keep the team in the bottom 5.

I’m also fine with keeping him if Grier doesn’t get a trade he likes but I wonder about the pressure Karlsson and his agent will put on him. If he really doesn’t want to be here we should let him go regardless of the return. If you’re trying to reset the culture you want volunteers, not conscripts.

 

[gaucholoco3]

I’m also fine with keeping him if Grier doesn’t get a trade he likes but I wonder about the pressure Karlsson and his agent will put on him. If he really doesn’t want to be here we should let him go regardless of the return. If you’re trying to reset the culture you want volunteers, not conscripts.

I agree that he shouldn’t be here if he doesn’t want to be. However if he wants out that bad he needs to open up to multiple teams for the sharks to get at least a Meier level return. It’s a two way street, a NMC means the player can’t be moved without his approval but it also means that the Sharks don’t have to trade him. I doubt it would get that bad because if he can continue to thrive in the Sharks system his legacy can improve if he wins multiple Norris trophies into his 30’s.

 

[Cas]

Nobody is signing off on paying that money for a player to not play for your team. It's just never going to happen. Even if Hasso signed off on it, Grier would have to get insane compensation to do so (something like a 1st round pick per year based on the comp of Marleau as a cap dump from Toronto to Carolina for buyout purposes prior to the COVID flat cap).

So before you get into acquiring value for Karlsson's value as a player, you're already starting with 4 1st round picks just in salary cap retention. There is not a team in the league trading for that and the Sharks are not going to be the team that sets precedent of selling cap space for pennies on the dollar.

The thing about sports leagues is that the market is so volatile and small that individual comps aren't necessarily that useful. I don't think the Marleau trade/buyout compensation is necessarily meaningful anymore - in sports economics terms, that was aeons ago.

The real question is what is the market today.