Speculation: 2022-23 Sharks Roster Discussion Part II

[Mr Fahrenheit]

This is the most Simek defense I've seen all year

 

[Karl Prime]

For context: when Leetch hit 102, he had 46 PP points. When MacInnis hit 103, he had 63 PP points. When Potvin had 101 he had 42 PP points.

EK has 26 PP points out of 100.

And Leetch had 107 pt Messier, MacInnis had 51-goal Fleury, and Potvin had Trottier and Bossy, with 134 and 126 points.

 

[hohosaregood]

With the way Simek's bounced back this season, I could see a trade being more viable next season but the cap hit is a bit problematic for a #6 guy. I'd probably rather trade Labanc with retention instead, especially if the other retention spot is used on Karlsson.

 

[Karl Prime]

For context: when Leetch hit 102, he had 46 PP points. When MacInnis hit 103, he had 63 PP points. When Potvin had 101 he had 42 PP points.

EK has 26 PP points out of 100.

And Leetch had 107 pt Messier, MacInnis had 51-goal Fleury, and Potvin had Trottier and Bossy, with 134 and 126 points.

Also, for the plus minus crowd, there is history of players having great seasons with bad plus minus.

With Pittsburgh, Coffey was -10 on a 113 point season, -25 on a 103 point season, and -18 on a 93 point season.
With LA, Gretzky was -12 on a 121 point season and -25 on a 130 point season.
Lemieux was -33 on a 100 point rookie season, -18 on a 122 point season (59 gms), and -25 on a 91 point season (67 gms).

Most of those teams were not good, and I'm sure their plus minus number took a hit from ENG just like EK.

 

[LadyStanley]

Another potential free agent

 

[Alaskanice]

Another potential free agent

Maybe Thrun can convince him to come to San Jose.

 

[Friday]

Maybe Thrun can convince him to come to San Jose.

Boston Boston Boston

 

[LadyStanley]

Another pending UFA

 

[LadyStanley]

Are Sharks valuing cap flexibility too much they can't move EK65?

 

[themelkman]

Another pending UFA

Need a huge win for their captain

 

[gaucholoco3]

Are Sharks valuing cap flexibility too much they can't move EK65?

I don’t think the sharks are valuing cap flexibility too much. I think it is that teams are not wanting to pay what it will take for the sharks to retain. Teams are offering what EK is worth without retention but still asking for 30% retention.

EK without retention is still worth similar to the Meier trade. Every 20% of retention should add a 1st round pick of value.

If the Sharks get Bedard or Fantilli then I think they should keep EK and even look to package the Devils 1st for a more advanced 22/23 year old prospect to speed up their timeline. While there are still holes in the lineup they will have around 9 Million in cap space even without addressing Labanc, Vlassic, Ferraro, Lindblom, and Simek as negative contracts.

LW: Barabonov, Eklund, Peterson, Gregor
C: Hertl, Bedard/Fantilli, Couture, Sturm
RW: Kraut, Kunin, Labanc, Zetterlund
Lindblom, Lorenz

Thurn - EK
Ferraro - Knyzhov
Vlassic - Benning
MacDonald, Semek(buried)

Kakonnen - Makiniemi

Not the best team but replacing Ferraro with a #3 RD, A competent Goalie (easier said than done), and a top 6 RW upgrade on Labanc. Would be a decent roster that isn’t in a horrible cap situation.

 

[STL Shark]

Are Sharks valuing cap flexibility too much they can't move EK65?

I read that paragraph as they're not valuing it enough. I.e. they're holding out for a haul rather than seeing the value in having Karlsson's deal off the books.

 

[timorous me]

I read that paragraph as they're not valuing it enough. I.e. they're holding out for a haul rather than seeing the value in having Karlsson's deal off the books.

I've read it a couple times and I'm not sure still, so maybe the problem is Seravalli and not the Sharks.

Anyway, am I the only one here hoping for the Oilers to flame out sometime before the SCF so they'll come back maybe with more desperation for Karlsson this summer? I'm still unsure what other teams could come in for him with the cap stagnancy. And I don't blame the Sharks for not wanting to retain at a ridiculously high number when it comes to someone who did what Karlsson did this year. Doing so SHOULD come with a haul of a return.

 

[Coily]

The Sharks seemed to not properly value the cap flexibility created for their own organization.

How does a Karlsson trade create cap flexibility?

Edit: In the sense that the cap space will be used to improve the team. I'm trying to say how does removing Karlsson and using that cap space on other people improve the team.

 

[Eklund72]

I don’t think the sharks are valuing cap flexibility too much. I think it is that teams are not wanting to pay what it will take for the sharks to retain. Teams are offering what EK is worth without retention but still asking for 30% retention.

EK without retention is still worth similar to the Meier trade. Every 20% of retention should add a 1st round pick of value.

If the Sharks get Bedard or Fantilli then I think they should keep EK and even look to package the Devils 1st for a more advanced 22/23 year old prospect to speed up their timeline. While there are still holes in the lineup they will have around 9 Million in cap space even without addressing Labanc, Vlassic, Ferraro, Lindblom, and Simek as negative contracts.

LW: Barabonov, Eklund, Peterson, Gregor
C: Hertl, Bedard/Fantilli, Couture, Sturm
RW: Kraut, Kunin, Labanc, Zetterlund
Lindblom, Lorenz

Thurn - EK
Ferraro - Knyzhov
Vlassic - Benning
MacDonald, Semek(buried)

Kakonnen - Makiniemi

Not the best team but replacing Ferraro with a #3 RD, A competent Goalie (easier said than done), and a top 6 RW upgrade on Labanc. Would be a decent roster that isn’t in a horrible cap situation.

Karlsson is 32. Rushing the rebuild to get better while Karlsson is still good doesn’t make sense. We’re not going to be a playoff team no matter what we do. This is the exact type of strategy that got us here in the first place

 

[Cas]

Karlsson is 32. Rushing the rebuild to get better while Karlsson is still good doesn’t make sense. We’re not going to be a playoff team no matter what we do. This is the exact type of strategy that got us here in the first place

Especially since Karlsson will not be this good in the future. This was a one-in-a-generation season, and even if Karlsson remains healthy and very good, he won't be this good.

The Sharks probably won't be a playoff team again until Karlsson is retired, no matter what we do. We are legitimately that bad.

 

[Mattb124]

How does a Karlsson trade create cap flexibility?

Edit: In the sense that the cap space will be used to improve the team. I'm trying to say how does removing Karlsson and using that cap space on other people improve the team.

This team isn't going to be competitive until Karlsson is 35/36 years old, so not only would it allow the Sharks to redeploy a large % of its cap space, but it would allow the team to restock assets and better align the core age-wise with the window in which it will be competitive. Much like this year, making the team marginally better in the next 1-3 seasons may actually be counter-productive.

 

[Karl Prime]

Also, for the plus minus crowd, there is history of players having great seasons with bad plus minus.

With Pittsburgh, Coffey was -10 on a 113 point season, -25 on a 103 point season, and -18 on a 93 point season.
With LA, Gretzky was -12 on a 121 point season and -25 on a 130 point season.
Lemieux was -33 on a 100 point rookie season, -18 on a 122 point season (59 gms), and -25 on a 91 point season (67 gms).

Most of those teams were not good, and I'm sure their plus minus number took a hit from ENG just like EK.

Another thing I realized, for any of you that are Hockey Reference nerds like me. They tally "Even Strength" oiGF and oiGA with empty netters, even though 6v5 obviously isn't an even strength situation. EK entered the CGY game with 122 ESGA, and now he has 124, but he was on ice for one 5v5 and one 6v5. At ES he is actually 105 for and 103 against when taking out ENG. He is still +2 at 5v5, and I'm sure that number was bigger pre-trade deadline. He has also had a personal 5v5 OiSV% over 91% eight times in his career for the crowd that think goalies can't be good because of his defensive play.

 

[Karl Prime]

Get a load of these numbers from Natural Stat Trick - CF% numbers with or without Karlsson.

Couture: with: 54.40 without: 41:23
Megna: with: 57.18 without: 42:74
Barabanov: with: 53:13 without: 46.75
Bonino: with: 53.46 without: 40.89
Sturm: with: 53.51 without: 42.55
Ferraro: with: 56.09 without: 42.88
Kunin: with: 49.78 without: 37.50
Thrun: 53.47 without: 43.17
Gregor: with: 50.21 without: 38.99
Knyzhov with: 47.97 without: 38.25
Svechnikov: with: 55 without: 43:93
Lorentz: with: 51:87 without: 45.04
Labanc: with: 59.46 (!!!!) without: 49.89

Basically the only players that didn't take a significant hit without EK are Eyssimont, Meier, Hertl, Eklund, Johnsson, and Kaut.

 

[fasterthanlight]

What do we think [email protected] x 4 is worth? It's funny to think that if he was a UFA he'd probably get a silly 10x7 deal and yet there's a perception that he's negative value even with retention.

I wonder if we can ditch logan as well? Couture@7M x4 has got to be worth something as well, right?

If we could get a first rounder for each, that would be nice.

 

[WSS11]

What do we think [email protected] x 4 is worth? It's funny to think that if he was a UFA he'd probably get a silly 10x7 deal and yet there's a perception that he's negative value even with retention.

I wonder if we can ditch logan as well? Couture@7M x4 has got to be worth something as well, right?

If we could get a first rounder for each, that would be nice.

Karlsson just put up 100pts and will most likely win the Norris. If he isn’t too picky on teams he’d waive for then I think we should return something like a 1st, good/great prospect, and a 2nd with some retention.

 

[gaucholoco3]

EK is no longer overpaid. He should get at least a Meier level of return.

I just don’t see why people are convinced he well suck after this season. He might not hit 100 points but he is not in his late 30’s, will be healthy going into the offseason, and the sharks should have better scoring depth up front. I think he will score at a similar pace next season and unless it is the 3 1sts that Grier asked for I think it is best to keep him so our your forwards can develop with an elite Dman feeding them the puck.

 

[hohosaregood]

I feel like 8.5m is the lowest it's worth sending him out for a realistic price. Anything lower than that would just be us doing the other team a favor and should be worth a king's ransom

 

[Jargon]

I will say, with the season now over, I’m actually surprisingly excited about both the summer and next year.

This year’s team was always going to be depressingly stale. Next year, though, feels like we’ll have a lot of things to cheer for. Eklund will be up, possibly Bordeleau and Robin. Continuing watching Thrun develop, as well as seeing what Mukh could bring.

We’re definitely getting a great player from the draft - maybe not a generational one, but a high end prospect that we desperately need.

For the summer; I’m excited by the potential Karlsson trade. Sad to see him go, but excited to see the return and what we do with it.

I think we’ll be bad next year, but slowly, slowly, slowly it’s starting to feel like we’re going to get to watch the new generation of Sharks trying to break in, rather than old guys trying to stay afloat, and I’m excited to watch and cheer for that.

 

[Anomie2029]

I will say, with the season now over, I’m actually surprisingly excited about both the summer and next year.

This year’s team was always going to be depressingly stale. Next year, though, feels like we’ll have a lot of things to cheer for. Eklund will be up, possibly Bordeleau and Robin. Continuing watching Thrun develop, as well as seeing what Mukh could bring.

We’re definitely getting a great player from the draft - maybe not a generational one, but a high end prospect that we desperately need.

For the summer; I’m excited by the potential Karlsson trade. Sad to see him go, but excited to see the return and what we do with it.

I think we’ll be bad next year, but slowly, slowly, slowly it’s starting to feel like we’re going to get to watch the new generation of Sharks trying to break in, rather than old guys trying to stay afloat, and I’m excited to watch and cheer for that.

I’m glad you’re positive about next season, but I’m the opposite. I think next season is going to be more painful than this one.

Bordeleau and Robins are not ready for NHL. Their stint shows that. Eklund will be up but he won’t have much to work with outside of Hertl, Barabanov, and Couture (assuming Karlsson is moved).

Strum’s second half of the season was pretty brutal to be honest, and I can’t see Zetterlund bringing much to the team. Mukhamadullin will need some time to grow with the Cuda (which hasn’t got the best record for developing players).