Speculation: 2022-23 Sharks Roster Discussion Part II

[Friday]

Reading that has me feeling much better for the Timo trade

 

[Gecklund]

This guy seems like he covers college sports. Why would he have any sources within the NJD organization?

 

[Jargon]

If that guy is legit I like Grier’s moxy.

 

[themelkman]

I hope for Griers sake hes right. Its the right move and IMO not an unreasonable ask for someone as good as Meier.

 

[themelkman]

Seems likely Pulli will be signed, but Wheeler doesnt seem to think hes much other than big

 

[Alaskanice]

I hope for Griers sake hes right. Its the right move and IMO not an unreasonable ask for someone as good as Meier.

It’s reasonable to me as well. Meier is a going to get that contract because he’s earned it. Those in the know are quite aware.
The Devils fans are understandably very connected to their kids but they’ll soon forget after seeing Timo play every game.

 

[sharks_dynasty]

It’s reasonable to me as well. Meier is a going to get that contract because he’s earned it. Those in the know are quite aware.
The Devils fans are understandably very connected to their kids but they’ll soon forget after seeing Timo play every game.

Last I checked, they have plenty of kids to be excited about. No harm in letting one go to become a better overall team.

 

[hohosaregood]

Last I checked, they have plenty of kids to be excited about. No harm in letting one go to become a better overall team.

i'm kinda just thinking give us nemec and the late 1st already. they're totally not gonna miss him between Hamilton, Hughes, Siegenthaler, and their other 5 allegedly top pairing potential prospects.

 

[one2gamble]

i'm kinda just thinking give us nemec and the late 1st already. they're totally not gonna miss him between Hamilton, Hughes, Siegenthaler, and their other 5 allegedly top pairing potential prospects.

They just don't want to give up the wrong one and they don't know which one that is

 

[TheWayToRefJose]

Good on Grier for not caving in for a package of meh.

Everyone acts like Timo has to be dealt at the TDL or we let him walk for nothing. He can still be traded at the next TDL or even the draft.

 

[TheBeard]

They just don't want to give up the wrong one and they don't know which one that is

Well it’s tough when you know you have 6 or 7 surefire hall of famers in the A.

 

[timorous me]

They just don't want to give up the wrong one and they don't know which one that is

To quote the former prince of Denmark--pretty sure he was a hockey fan: "To sleep; perchance to dream: ay there's the rub: for in that sleep of death what dreams may come?"

 

[tiburon12]

To quote the former prince of Denmark--pretty sure he was a hockey fan: "To sleep; perchance to dream: ay there's the rub: for in that sleep of death what dreams may come?"

Is this a quote from Animal Crossing?

Last I checked, they have plenty of kids to be excited about. No harm in letting one go to become a better overall team.

I saw one fan say, in regard Mercer being untouchable, "he has a chance to become Meier"

They want their cake and to eat it too. They'll get nothing and like it!

 

[Chinaski89]

Hmmm

F the Blues. Not to the Blues please. Those A holes headshotted their way to a cup and I find their fan base insufferable.

 

[Pavelski2112]

F the Blues. Not to the Blues please. Those A holes headshotted their way to a cup and I find their fan base insufferable.

Same as Vegas - if they get Meier, I want them to suffer for it

 

[Patty Ice]

F the Blues. Not to the Blues please. Those A holes headshotted their way to a cup and I find their fan base insufferable.

Same as Vegas - if they get Meier, I want them to suffer for it

The only tolerable fanbase on HF whose team is rumored to be in on Meier is Carolina and they are all about being jerks

 

[Sharkz4Fun]

The only tolerable fanbase on hf whose team is rumored to be in on Meier is Carolina and they are all about being jerks

FTFY

 

[Le Rosbeef]

The question remains, what is a reasonable ask for a 26 year old top-line winger? (who will likely tie up long term for $8-8.5m, max term)

Looking at the Twitter responses to that post above, where many Devils fans say they wouldn't even do it "straight up" shows how easy it is to fall down the rabbit hole of overvaluing guys you developed or drafted through your own prospect system. Arguing about the cap is moot - he has just one year left on an ELC.

Hold your nerve, Mr Grier. That's the right ask - there has to be a centre piece in return which isn't a prospect - especially when the add ins they are reportedly offering are a late first and a potential cap dump / middle sixer or a B prospect. Settling for Holtz as the key piece might work - who knows - but he could just as easily be the next Mark Stone/Erik Brannstrom scenario.

"Mercer may become as good as Timo" is as Family Guy as it gets. Mercer (or Jarvis if Carolina), is the guy that should be insisted upon.

 

[tiburon12]

"Mercer may become as good as Timo" is as Family Guy as it gets. Mercer (or Jarvis if Carolina), is the guy that should be insisted upon.

I literally responded to that reddit post with that Family Guy clip hahah

 

[PacificOceanPotion]

Someone else mentioned it is exciting to be a sharks fan right now. I mean we could look back on at Timo Meier and Erik Karlsson trades as being the catalysts to years of contending for Stanley cups Just based on the returns we get back from other teams in those trades..

 

[Juxtaposer]

The question remains, what is a reasonable ask for a 26 year old top-line winger? (who will likely tie up long term for $8-8.5m, max term)

Looking at the Twitter responses to that post above, where many Devils fans say they wouldn't even do it "straight up" shows how easy it is to fall down the rabbit hole of overvaluing guys you developed or drafted through your own prospect system. Arguing about the cap is moot - he has just one year left on an ELC.

Hold your nerve, Mr Grier. That's the right ask - there has to be a centre piece in return which isn't a prospect - especially when the add ins they are reportedly offering are a late first and a potential cap dump / middle sixer or a B prospect. Settling for Holtz as the key piece might work - who knows - but he could just as easily be the next Mark Stone/Erik Brannstrom scenario.

"Mercer may become as good as Timo" is as Family Guy as it gets. Mercer (or Jarvis if Carolina), is the guy that should be insisted upon.

Not to single you out, but a post like this just fundamentally misunderstands why a player tracking to be potentially as good as Meier is worth more than Meier. There are so many folks in this thread who are going to be disappointed with the return for this reason.

This isn’t the first time I’ve said this, but please understand that the majority of Timo’s value has already happened.

A player’s value begins when they are drafted and ends when they become an unrestricted free agent. Why? Because once a player hits unrestricted agency years, either they leave or their contract overtakes their value. Timo is about to 1) make a butt-load of money and 2) exit his prime. Almost every forward has had his best season by age 26-27, with a few exceptions. Hertl did, Couture did. I think Sharks fans were spoiled by ageless wonders like Thornton, Marleau, and Pavelski, and have now come to expect elite seasons from 30+ year olds, but that’s just not the norm. Almost all of Timo’s “value” has been extracted by the Sharks over the past eight years. That’s why he’ll never return a 20 year old who could be as good as he is now. There’s a reason that contracts given to UFAs are typically contracts that no one wants to trade for—rather than giving up assets in a trade, the value you’re giving up is knowing for a fact that you’re going to hate the contract in as soon as two years when the player declines from what they’re worth when they sign it, and that’s if you even get them at a number that they’re worth when they sign it. Look at Bo Horvat, JT Miller, etc., no one wants those contracts now and most people wouldn’t take them for free. They’ve become valueless, like Timo will in a couple of years. There’s a reason expiring contracts have more value at the deadline than 30+ year olds with multi-year contracts.

Or to put it in other words: would you trade current Timo for a 20 year old Timo? According to your meme, they should be worth the same, right? Would you trade Eklund for Jesper Bratt? If you think Meier is worth Mercer, then you must be chomping at the bit to trade Eklund for Bratt.

Meier’s worth, which is one playoff run on a cheap contract and the opportunity to sign him to a long term contract that you will almost certainly regret half-way through, will not get you a Mercer or Jarvis, never mind someone like Nemec. Players as good as Meier in Meier’s situation almost always go for a good (but not elite) prospect and a mid-late first. I respect Grier for sticking to his guns, but if he doesn’t bend a little no one will trade for Meier and we won’t get anything.

It wouldn’t be the worst thing to wait until the draft to trade him, but I would argue that his value will have declined by then, because of the missed playoff run.

Zetterlund, Holtz, and a late 1st is about the best package we can reasonably hope for. As always, folks are entitled to groundless optimism if they’re willing to accept that they might be disappointed, but that’s not really my style.

I’m antsy for this whole saga to be over, but because it’s exhausting, not because I’m excited for the return.

 

[STL Shark]

If oilers were sending a crazy valuable package I can see eating the money, but not for some cap dumps

Package that I come back to is something like this:

Barrie ($4.5M) + Yamamoto ($3.1M) + Bouchard/Broberg ($850k) + Holloway + 2023 1st + 2025 1st
for
Karlsson ($3.5M retained) + Harrington + Veronneau + Nutivaara

Veronneau and Nutivaara have no cap impact and Harrington gives Edmonton a cheap depth D. All 3 are basically included as a way to balance out the contracts for SJ.

2025 1st is the retention cost. Cost for Karlsson is the 2023 1st + Holloway + Bouch/Broberg. Then Barrie/Yamamoto maybe hold 2nd and 3rd round pick values on their own, respectively.

For a package like that, I am fine eating money as I think that brings back some good assets (not great, but good) and also just rids us of a lot of money that can be redeployed to build around the new core of Eklund, 2023 Draft Pick(s), Meier prospects, etc.

 

[NiWa]

Not to single you out, but a post like this just fundamentally misunderstands why a player tracking to be potentially as good as Meier is worth more than Meier. There are so many folks in this thread who are going to be disappointed with the return for this reason.

This isn’t the first time I’ve said this, but please understand that the majority of Timo’s value has already happened.

A player’s value begins when they are drafted and ends when they become an unrestricted free agent. Why? Because once a player hits unrestricted agency years, either they leave or their contract overtakes their value. Timo is about to 1) make a butt-load of money and 2) exit his prime. Almost every forward has had his best season by age 26-27, with a few exceptions. Hertl did, Couture did. I think Sharks fans were spoiled by ageless wonders like Thornton, Marleau, and Pavelski, and have now come to expect elite seasons from 30+ year olds, but that’s just not the norm. Almost all of Timo’s “value” has been extracted by the Sharks over the past eight years. That’s why he’ll never return a 20 year old who could be as good as he is now. There’s a reason that contracts given to UFAs are typically contracts that no one wants to trade for—rather than giving up assets in a trade, the value you’re giving up is knowing for a fact that you’re going to hate the contract in as soon as two years when the player declines from what they’re worth when they sign it, and that’s if you even get them at a number that they’re worth when they sign it. Look at Bo Horvat, JT Miller, etc., no one wants those contracts now and most people wouldn’t take them for free. They’ve become valueless, like Timo will in a couple of years. There’s a reason expiring contracts have more value at the deadline than 30+ year olds with multi-year contracts.

Or to put it in other words: would you trade current Timo for a 20 year old Timo? According to your meme, they should be worth the same, right? Would you trade Eklund for Jesper Bratt? If you think Meier is worth Mercer, then you must be chomping at the bit to trade Eklund for Bratt.

Meier’s worth, which is one playoff run on a cheap contract and the opportunity to sign him to a long term contract that you will almost certainly regret half-way through, will not get you a Mercer or Jarvis, never mind someone like Nemec. Players as good as Meier in Meier’s situation almost always go for a good (but not elite) prospect and a mid-late first. I respect Grier for sticking to his guns, but if he doesn’t bend a little no one will trade for Meier and we won’t get anything.

It wouldn’t be the worst thing to wait until the draft to trade him, but I would argue that his value will have declined by then, because of the missed playoff run.

Zetterlund, Holtz, and a late 1st is about the best package we can reasonably hope for. As always, folks are entitled to groundless optimism if they’re willing to accept that they might be disappointed, but that’s not really my style.

I’m antsy for this whole saga to be over, but because it’s exhausting, not because I’m excited for the return.

Excellent post.

All that being said, it's still possible to get a deal done (even if likelihood is low) with Mercer (much easier) or Nemec (super hard due to draft position/pedigree) as the center piece, it just can't be "we want three pieces". Especially on the latter piece, we'd have to add.

Now getting St.Louis first round pick (even if protected) as a center piece of a deal would be fantastic value.

In my opinion, when making the Meier trade, the younger and better the main piece coming back is, the more valuable it will be to the Sharks. We didn't like what was left available at the top for our first last year, so we did a value trade (moving the first for 3 picks later in the draft) - I wouldn't want to see that repeated in this Meier trade (by accepting 3 lesser pieces that could pan out), I'd rather want a young return with high likelihood to be a top 6 / top 4 player (someone that would go top 10 in a redraft). Given our current prospects, a D or C would be very much preferred.

 

[STL Shark]

i'm kinda just thinking give us nemec and the late 1st already. they're totally not gonna miss him between Hamilton, Hughes, Siegenthaler, and their other 5 allegedly top pairing potential prospects.

Nemec + Zetterlund + 2023 1st and I'm running outside celebrating a great deal for the Sharks. I am hoping that Grier is just working these guys with the top of the top so that when he "comes off" his asking price and "settles" it is for the package that he wanted all along. I'd even toss Barabanov in there as a cheap Tatar replacement for NJD for next year if it meant getting the upgraded prospect package that includes Nemec.

Be really nice to walk out of this season with a top pairing RD, our top 5 draft pick, Eklund, and another 1st rounder or 2 to try and jump back into the top 15 for another future top 4/6 cog. Could transform this prospect pool very quickly over the next 16 months and lay the groundwork for another decade long window to compete.

 

[Juxtaposer]

Excellent post.

All that being said, it's still possible to get a deal done (even if likelihood is low) with Mercer (much easier) or Nemec (super hard due to draft position/pedigree) as the center piece, it just can't be "we want three pieces". Especially on the latter piece, we'd have to add.

Now getting St.Louis first round pick (even if protected) as a center piece of a deal would be fantastic value.

In my opinion, when making the Meier trade, the younger and better the main piece coming back is, the more valuable it will be to the Sharks. We didn't like what was left available at the top for our first last year, so we did a value trade (moving the first for 3 picks later in the draft) - I wouldn't want to see that repeated in this Meier trade (by accepting 3 lesser pieces that could pan out), I'd rather want a young return with high likelihood to be a top 6 / top 4 player (someone that would go top 10 in a redraft). Given our current prospects, a D or C would be very much preferred.

Certainly, a single excellent piece would be preferable to a few solid pieces, but my point is that it won’t happen. I think teams have learned from trades like Stepan-Zibanejad.

For the love of god, people, Nemec isn’t happening, never mind Nemec +. I get optimism but this is fantasyland, pointless to even talk about.