Speculation: 2022-23 Sharks Roster Discussion Part II

[OrrNumber4]

I would put a crazy conditions to make sure the pick was in the top ten, but obviously not in the top 5.

The conditions the Sharks should put are on team success, not failure. If the other team makes the CF, charge them an extra first-rounder. If they do it the next year, a 2nd-round pick that year. Etc, etc.

No one would trade a guarantee at an 18 year old player as good as Timo for 26 year old Timo. We’ve already gotten a lot of value out of Timo for the past 7ish years. He only has a couple prime years left (on average forwards tend to start declining around 28 years old), so most of his value has been extricated. A top-10 pick would be a good return for Timo, like the 7th overall was a solid return for DeBrincat.

Montreal makes no sense for Timo, they’re in the same boat as us. But if they were, Florida’s 1st would be an interesting chip.

The more I think about it the less I really want NJ to be the final trade. We just wont be getting Nemec or Hughes and everyone after that is a big question mark, and the pick is bound to be late.

This is well said, but I think it's important to point out that in any Meier trade, it is very likely that the Sharks "lose" the deal. The other team will get the better, more productive player. Every now and then, you have a Karlsson trade where the other team gets a couple of top players, but usually, it's like the Burns/Boyle/Heatley trade.

 

[fasterthanlight]

Interesting that Winnipeg is one of the teams.

Imagine going from silicon valley to the city with the worst wifi on earth

 

[Grinner]

If we could snag a deal where we get like 6th-10th overall and a decent prospect like Barron I would be very happy with that

Owen Beck
Wherever the 2nd #1 pick falls.

 

[one2gamble]

Imagine going from silicon valley to the city with the worst wifi on earth

when did they get wifi

 

[Cas]

Let’s not get too excited about a top 10 pick being the main piece.

Don’t forget Timo himself was a top 10 pick, would go top 10 in a redraft, and it was a super stacked draft class.

I’d want more than a draft pick that we hope turns out to be as good as Timo because there’s a very real chance anyone outside of the top 4 won’t be.

It's not realistic to expect Meier to return something that will be as good as Meier is or has been. The odds of drafting a player who winds up as good as Meier has been, using a pick we acquired, are pretty slim.

The key is to return the best value available, knowing that the value Meier will provide in the future is very likely one more excellent season (in a season in which the team will suck) and then zero.

 

[TheBeard]

I would put a crazy conditions to make sure the pick was in the top ten, but obviously not in the top 5.

It's funny, when people think about trades like this, most assume all the risk falls on the shoulders of the team giving up the future pieces, but the reality is, a team trading someone like a Timo is trading him for a pick that will actively get worse with that player's inclusion and a bunch of lotteries whether via more future picks or prospects that may or may not pan out.

 

[sharski]

i can't even remember the last time the Sharks had a player in this much demand at the TDL

this feels weird

 

[hohosaregood]

I'd like to make a deal with Philly. They're a desperate and delusional team like the Islanders but they could net us a higher pick and maybe a couple good prospects. Maybe a 1st (top 10 protection), Cam York, and Emil Andrae.

 

[OrrNumber4]

i can't even remember the last time the Sharks had a player in this much demand at the TDL

this feels weird

Owen Nolan, and then of course there was so much speculation about Selanne/Damphousse/Ricci and Lombardi bungled everything.

 

[timorous me]

I'd like to make a deal with Philly. They're a desperate and delusional team like the Islanders but they could net us a higher pick and maybe a couple good prospects. Maybe a 1st (top 10 protection), Cam York, and Emil Andrae.

How many years does the top-10 protection last, because I'd worry about ever getting that pick!

 

[Alaskanice]

I’m still in the camp of trading with New Jersey. The players they can offer have some NHL experience and that bodes well for us. The Holtz-Eklund factor is big. Yes, the first rounder will be later but it’s still a very deep draft. We can certainly get two high end draftees.

 

[Jargon]

i can't even remember the last time the Sharks had a player in this much demand at the TDL

this feels weird

Definitely not in recent years. I feel like since I’ve been watching (15ish years?) the rumors are all about us trading for fancy players. It’s a little fun to think about us trading a fancy player for some interesting new pieces.

I just, again, am really worried about Grier, a first time GM, bungling it. He does seem like a very smart, cool operator… I’m just not sure about the trades he’s made so far (though all of them have asterisks which make it hard to judge his full trading ability.)

 

[Harbessix]

I just, again, am really worried about Grier, a first time GM, bungling it. He does seem like a very smart, cool operator… I’m just not sure about the trades he’s made so far (though all of them have asterisks which make it hard to judge his full trading ability.)

The way I’ve approached the Grier trades and signings thus far in his short stint, is less about who he’s acquired and more about the greater purpose or reasoning behind them. He wants the kids to get seasoning in the AHL and learn to win at that level first. In my opinion it’s the right thing to do. The potential trade of Timo will be the first real test for Grier as with Burns he had fairly limited options in terms of trading partners. If Grier can get a haul for Timo it essentially commences our rebuild in earnest.

 

[themelkman]

I’m still in the camp of trading with New Jersey. The players they can offer have some NHL experience and that bodes well for us. The Holtz-Eklund factor is big. Yes, the first rounder will be later but it’s still a very deep draft. We can certainly get two high end draftees.

Holtz just scares me alot. Hes been bad in the NHL this year and isnt getting any playing time to develop.

Kind of seems like his shot is all that really works for him, and he has to be catered to get that going.

 

[tiburon12]

Holtz just scares me alot. Hes been bad in the NHL this year and isnt getting any playing time to develop.

Kind of seems like his shot is all that really works for him, and he has to be catered to get that going.

Yea, to echo your concerns earlier, i too am not jazzed about NJ either. I like the concept of getting a D prospect as the main piece since it's likely that our 1st this year will go towards a forward. Without Nemec or Hughes, NJ's offer doesnt have that sparkle.

 

[Alaskanice]

Holtz just scares me alot. Hes been bad in the NHL this year and isnt getting any playing time to develop.

Kind of seems like his shot is all that really works for him, and he has to be catered to get that going.

I get you reticence, this is the issue with prospects. At times, gotta bite the bullet. See what transpires.

 

[themelkman]

I get you reticence, this is the issue with prospects. At times, gotta bite the bullet. See what transpires.

In truth it will depend on the sharks scouting teams evaluations, and given its a brand new team we cant really predict how they feel.

 

[Juxtaposer]

Holtz just scares me alot. Hes been bad in the NHL this year and isnt getting any playing time to develop.

Kind of seems like his shot is all that really works for him, and he has to be catered to get that going.

I have significant concerns about Holtz. He may end up being a good scorer, but he’s not a player who is going to be useful if he isn’t scoring. If Holtz is the best piece in a Meier trade, I’ll be a little disappointed.

 

[Friday]

I have significant concerns about Holtz. He may end up being a good scorer, but he’s not a player who is going to be useful if he isn’t scoring. If Holtz is the best piece in a Meier trade, I’ll be a little disappointed.

I dont want Holtz. And if possible Id want SJ to target a higher 1st that 28th... But, im sure MG takes the best deal. If its Holtz than I guess we try and like Holtz

 

[Juxtaposer]

I dont want Holtz. And if possible Id want SJ to target a higher 1st that 28th... But, im sure MG takes the best deal. If its Holtz than I guess we try and like Holtz

Right, I feel like whichever offer has the highest 1st rounder is the most appealing to me. Failing that, I’d prefer a defense prospect to Holtz.

 

[Jargon]

Holtz doesn’t really seem like a Grier player to me.

 

[tahoesharksfan]

I just, again, am really worried about Grier, a first time GM, bungling it. He does seem like a very smart, cool operator… I’m just not sure about the trades he’s made so far (though all of them have asterisks which make it hard to judge his full trading ability.)

Everything he’s done so far had just been sideways movement. I think what he does with Timo will be the first real sign of his abilities as a GM. Let’s hope he does something good!

 

[OrrNumber4]

I dont want Holtz. And if possible Id want SJ to target a higher 1st that 28th... But, im sure MG takes the best deal. If its Holtz than I guess we try and like Holtz

True, we can assume that Grier will go for the best deal possible, but what could be telling is how Grier is evaluating players. If the main piece is a middling prospect who doesn't pan out, it'll speak to Grier's poor ability to evaluate talent.

On the main boards, some people are suggesting the Sharks could get Hughes, Power, or Wright for Meier and I just can't see that being the case.

 

[WTFetus]

True, we can assume that Grier will go for the best deal possible, but what could be telling is how Grier is evaluating players. If the main piece is a middling prospect who doesn't pan out, it'll speak to Grier's poor ability to evaluate talent.

On the main boards, some people are suggesting the Sharks could get Hughes, Power, or Wright for Meier and I just can't see that being the case.

Where are you seeing this? I'm not seeing any mention of Power or Wright in the Meier threads, and the Hughes posts seemed more tongue in cheek so I doubt anyone is actually mentioning any of those three players seriously. I'd easily do Meier+ (with the + being anything except a 1st round pick or Eklund) for any of those three and that wouldn't be enough.

 

[timorous me]

True, we can assume that Grier will go for the best deal possible, but what could be telling is how Grier is evaluating players. If the main piece is a middling prospect who doesn't pan out, it'll speak to Grier's poor ability to evaluate talent.

On the main boards, some people are suggesting the Sharks could get Hughes, Power, or Wright for Meier and I just can't see that being the case.

Yeah, that's the thing--what strikes many of us as the "best" offer might not hold the same appeal to another person, and that other person might just be the one pulling the trigger on any such deal. If Grier decides that things like size and character are more important characteristics than I do (not that I'm saying they're bad!), then the deal he makes might not excite me.

We'll see what happens, though at this point is feels almost inevitable that a deal is coming, as sad as that might be, as I've always liked Timo and really have enjoyed his journey toward becoming a top player.

It's interesting thinking about the way the 2022 draft went, with the Sharks putting a lot of stock in size. We all can't help but think that speaks to the direction Grier wants to take the team--and he has talked about things like being harder to play against--but I just remembered to finish reading Scott Wheeler's Sharks prospect rankings, and it is striking just how many of the pre-2022 draftees are undersized: basically everyone other than Coe!

So it's possible the added emphasis on size isn't something Grier is going to be forever fixated on; it might just be that it was glaringly obvious that the up-and-coming forward group needed some bigger, stronger guys to (hopefully) one day help make up lines including these smaller prospects. Now that he's had a draft to start creating a better size mix, maybe (hopefully) this isn't something he'll be hell-bent on in these trade discussions.