2022/23 Roster Thread III: Run It Back!

[Hollywood Cannon]

Ah, this topic reminded me of the “the old players were tired and out of shape after the break” narrative/defense.

That statement being made when the only time that the team looked competent was in overtimes sure was something.

God damn, I forgot how much of a chore it was to watch those PLAYOFF games.

 

[Beef Invictus]

When Authentics try to excuse Fletchers horrible moves by saying he was forced to have a bias for action it makes me think of someone saying to their spouse "I'm hungry. Run to the store and buy us something to eat", then the person comes back, having only bought $500 worth of vinegar, and says "Why are you mad? You said to go buy something!".

Being forced to make moves doesn't mean you were forced to make bad moves. He could have done a ton but made the team better instead of worse. Why are we pretending that wasn't an alternative, as if his choices were exactly what he did or nothing at all?

Oh wait, I know why. Shameless shilling.

Wait what's wrong with 270 gallons of vinegar?

 

[Beef Invictus]

They lost their mojo the second that AV decided to shit down his leg at the first sign of pushback from the Habs.

It was the whole reasoning of why we knew that AV wasn't going to get the job done the following season or the year after. We heard for months or even years about how AV had them playing a different way because of they layoff they'll be back to normal during the following regular season. They weren't. That season was blamed on COVID and Lake Tahoe and yet we still had the same arguments that he would change despite mountains of evidence that THAT was who he was as a coach. The 9 game winning streak before the break? An aberration, it was not the norm.

Precisely. What we were seeing was the idiocy he partook in in NY. He just got there way faster than expected. Anyone who had paid attention around the division knew once AV dug himself into that hole, he had no way of getting out.

 

[GKJ]

point is neither he or Holmgren are calling the shots or making any decisions. If they were then JG would have been a Flyer 100% no questions asked.

All on the President/GM.

This is true, of course, but did Chuck do what he was tasked to do by those above him and acted as his enablers? That’s the actual issue. We know he did by getting Deslauriers, that was a total Paul Holmgen contract. When the ship started sinking in Minnesota, he didn’t start turning to the goons. That was something he did because he was told to do it. It’s just now by not getting Gaudreau, he bet all the chips on himself, so if the returns don’t pay off huge, he’s getting the knife from the front. The Flyers are a long history of meddling once purported by Snider, so there’s zero doubt the ‘advisors’ are doing it too.

 

[BiggE]

Chuck Fletcher built this sorry excuse for a team.

And yes he overpaid for Kevin Hayes. I don't give a crap what the market price was for him, let some other moron over pay for fools gold.

Amen
Just because a player might get X amount of dollars, it doesn’t make it a good idea to give them X amount of dollars. I really don’t like Hayes at all, but, if they really wanted him, the max he should have been offered was 5 years at 5.5 million per. If that doesn’t get the deal done, oh well, you’re out a mid round pick.

Risto should have never been acquired, he is a bad player. But, once you got him and could see for yourself that A: the team is going nowhere and B: Risto is a bad player, a remotely competent GM retains 50% and moves him at the deadline. Signing him to a 5 year extension was a horrific decision.

Cuck is a terrible GM, there is no defending him. When your best move was Gudas for Niskanen (and Niskanen was horrible after the play stoppage), you are in serious trouble.

Cuck needs to be fired yesterday as does anyone who recommended his hiring to Scott. It’s an utter shitshow right now.

NST had PHL during that series at:

41.97 CF% @ 5v5
43.48 FF% @ 5v5
38.82 xGF% @ 5v5

Let's put that into scope. Montreal turned them into the 2021-22 Coyotes at 5v5, but worse. But they won! Great success.

Yup, Carter Hart is the only reason they won that series.

 

[Ghosts Beer]

Both Philly and Boston lost their mojo with four months off.

The bizarre thing is while the Flyers missed the playoffs the next season, most of the team bounced back from the playoff collapse.
Flyers were 14th in xGF% at 50.57%.
The one player who really slipped was Voracek, and I think b/c once they were out of contention he tuned AV out.
Three teams had better xGF but similar records, Dallas, Calgary and Montreal (52.87%).
Montreal struggled with goalie play the regular season but then Price found his playoff mojo.

The season immediately following the bubble, the Flyers had the worst team goaltending performance in about 30 prior years of NHL action. Historically bad goaltending.

People forget that.

 

[JojoTheWhale]

I actually kind of get the distinction deady is making. I don't think it matters in the scope of evaluation, but I at least get the thought. When the Giants drafted Daniel Jones at 6OA, I thought the problem was their evaluation, not the draft pick itself. If their evaluation was right, you didn't take the chance that he lasted until their next pick at 17OA.

Well-run teams react well to the market. Today's advantage may have no correlation to tomorrow's as more and more teams catch up to the edges you've found. They've never struck me as having any dynamism to their approaches under Fletcher. The target is the target. The edge is never going to be in outbidding everyone else for non-stars, let alone trading for the right to do that.

 

[Beef Invictus]

Ah, this topic reminded me of the “the old players were tired and out of shape after the break” narrative/defense.

That statement being made when the only time that the team looked competent was in overtimes sure was something.

God damn, I forgot how much of a chore it was to watch those PLAYOFF games.

The way they played was a coaching decision through and through. They were in fine shape in the seeding round, they were in fine shape in overtime which was the only time they looked like their regular season selves after AV panicked after one game and went megastupid.

 

[Beef Invictus]

The season immediately following the bubble, the Flyers had the worst team goaltending performance in about 30 prior years of NHL action. Historically bad goaltending.

People forget that.

No, people remember that. We also remember Fletcher being too lazy to fire Dillabaugh and instead hiring his buddy, which ended up failing. Zero accountability for anyone but prospects doing what's asked of them.

Their metrics across were still bad. Good goaltending doesn't change much of that team's trajectory.

 

[deadhead]

They lost their mojo the second that AV decided to shit down his leg at the first sign of pushback from the Habs.

It was the whole reasoning of why we knew that AV wasn't going to get the job done the following season or the year after. We heard for months or even years about how AV had them playing a different way because of they layoff they'll be back to normal during the following regular season. They weren't. That season was blamed on COVID and Lake Tahoe and yet we still had the same arguments that he would change despite mountains of evidence that THAT was who he was as a coach. The 9 game winning streak before the break? An aberration, it was not the norm.

It was more than a 9 game streak:
1/11/20: 23-16-6
rest of season 18-5-1

During those 24 games:

GF 60.61% (1), xGF 51.71% (10), SH% 10.56% (1), HDCF 52.76% (7), Sv% 92.76 (7),
PP GF/60: 9.02 (4), xGF/60: 7.82 (5)
PK GA/60: 6.51 (14th), xGA/60: 5.13 (2)

They were legitimately good down the stretch, some puck luck with regard to shooting, but otherwise not being carried by a hot goalie. Both the PP and the PK were humming, bad puck luck on the PK.
Maybe not as good as their record, but a top 8 team.

 

[CerpinTaxt]

I still cant believe he had an assistant coach be his rat. That to me is mind boggling. Unconscionable. He seems to be doing a great job in Pitt as the assistant GM.

Hakstol wasn't as bad as made out to be. Just a plain average coach. Didnt see many Seattle games though hoped he would have learned from some of his mistakes n Philly. Not sure if he did or didn't.

Hakstol is a bad coach who made the same mistakes last season with Seattle as he was making in his tenure with the Flyers. The hakshell lives on

 

[Hollywood Cannon]

It was more than a 9 game streak:
1/11/20: 23-16-6
rest of season 18-5-1

During those 24 games:

GF 60.61% (1), xGF 51.71% (10), SH% 10.56% (1), HDCF 52.76% (7), Sv% 92.76 (7),
PP GF/60: 9.02 (4), xGF/60: 7.82 (5)
PK GA/60: 6.51 (14th), xGA/60: 5.13 (2)

They were legitimately good down the stretch, some puck luck with regard to shooting, but otherwise not being carried by a hot goalie. Both the PP and the PK were humming, bad puck luck on the PK.
Maybe not as good as their record, but a top 8 team.

Didn’t want to recognize the rest of the stuff you were wrong about?

 

[Beef Invictus]

Hakstol is a bad coach who made the same mistakes last season with Seattle as he was making in his tenure with the Flyers. The hakshell lives on

He's just not a HC. He can organize a defense. His offensive implementation and ideas are unfit for pro hockey.

 

[Tripod]

I just saw that Torts is ALREADY defending ADA and Fletch because people are saying means things about them.

Going to be a great year!

 

[Striiker]

The Hakshell losing them their last game is why they ended up with Wright at #4, instead of swapping spots with us.

Although Fletchers stupid ass probably takes Gauthier anyways.

 

[deadhead]

No, people remember that. We also remember Fletcher being too lazy to fire Dillabaugh and instead hiring his buddy, which ended up failing. Zero accountability for anyone but prospects doing what's asked of them.

Their metrics across were still bad. Good goaltending doesn't change much of that team's trajectory.

their metrics weren't bad, they were marginal playoff team level
2020-21:
GF 44.85% (24), xGF 49.84% (16th), HDCF 48.01% (20th), SH 8.44% (11), Sv% 89.64% (31)
PP GF/60: 6.59 (19), xGF/60: 6.23 (17)
PK GA/60: 9.77 (30), xGA/60: 6.68 (20), Sv% 80.93 (31)
The goalie play was horrible, the rest of the team middle of the pack

Who fell off?
Raffl, NAK, Voracek - all three played significantly worse than the previous year
Patrick returned, but bad luck/bad play, GF/GA 12/38, Sanheim/Myers also had good metrics but leaked goals
Braun filled in for NIskanen, with an obvious fall-off.
Laughton, Hayes, Ghost played better

 

[Striiker]

Wait what's wrong with 270 gallons of vinegar?

Too much of a good thing

 

[GKJ]

A correction to my last post: Chuck DIDN’T start turning to goons in Minnesota.

 

[Beef Invictus]

their metrics weren't bad, they were marginal playoff team level
2020-21:
GF 44.85% (24), xGF 49.84% (16th), HDCF 48.01% (20th), SH 8.44% (11), Sv% 89.64% (31)
PP GF/60: 6.59 (19), xGF/60: 6.23 (17)
PK GA/60: 9.77 (30), xGA/60: 6.68 (20), Sv% 80.93 (31)
The goalie play was horrible, the rest of the team middle of the pack

Who fell off?
Raffl, NAK, Voracek - all three played significantly worse than the previous year
Patrick returned, but bad luck/bad play, GF/GA 12/38, Sanheim/Myers also had good metrics but leaked goals
Braun filled in for NIskanen, with an obvious fall-off.
Laughton, Hayes, Ghost played better

Marginal playoffs level for a team that is attempting to contend for a Cup is really damned bad. Let's not forget what the standard was meant to be.

 

[Tripod]

He knows best

 

[deadhead]

Marginal playoffs level for a team that is attempting to contend for a Cup is really damned bad. Let's not forget what the standard was meant to be.

It was a "last hurrah" move. They had ridden G, Couts, Voracek, Provorov and Ghost through the last decade and were barely a playoff team - so either blow it up in the summer of 2019 or go for it, and with Holmgren still in charge, which strategy did you think they were going to pursue?

G gradually declined after 2019-20, Voracek has slipped substantially, Niskanen retired, Braun slipped to 3rd pair status.
Patrick and Frost never emerged, Myers turned out to be pyrite, the other young players simply couldn't pick up the slack.
Injuries and bad goalie play exposed that the window had closed.

Which is why firing Fletcher isn't nearly enough, until the FO, starting with Scott or his replacement, realistically assess this team, they'll just ask the next GM to make "win now" moves - even if better executed, they don't have the assets to successfully follow that strategy - and a Gorton or Rutherford type might strip their future 1st rd picks in a futile attempt to make that strategy work.

 

[BiggE]

It was a "last hurrah" move. They had ridden G, Couts, Voracek, Provorov and Ghost through the last decade and were barely a playoff team - so either blow it up in the summer of 2019 or go for it, and with Holmgren still in charge, which strategy did you think they were going to pursue?

G gradually declined after 2019-20, Voracek has slipped substantially, Niskanen retired, Braun slipped to 3rd pair status.
Patrick and Frost never emerged, Myers turned out to be pyrite, the other young players simply couldn't pick up the slack.
Injuries and bad goalie play exposed that the window had closed.

Which is why firing Fletcher isn't nearly enough, until the FO, starting with Scott or his replacement, realistically assess this team, they'll just ask the next GM to make "win now" moves - even if better executed, they don't have the assets to successfully follow that strategy - and a Gorton or Rutherford type might strip their future 1st rd picks in a futile attempt to make that strategy work.

Good lord man, you twist and turn more than an epileptic hula dancer on acid.

 

[LegionOfDoom91]

Fletcher is a crumb bum.

 

[JojoTheWhale]

Even if you want to take the reasonable position that the Deslauriers contract looks like something Holmgren would do, the idea that any one of us can speak to whether he was told to do it or simply listened to the wrong advisors is the height of folly and should be openly laughed at. None of us know shit, myself included.

 

[deadhead]

He knows best

View attachment 571651

Actually I think he does - and I wouldn't be surprised if he wasn't on board with keeping the 1st rd picks, making minor additions and seeing what they have on the current roster before making a splash.

They can quickly reload by gradually moving out veterans as prospects are ready, Atkinson b/c of glut of young RWs, for example.

2024-25:
Assume JVR, Atkinson gone, $13M freed up, TDA, another $5M. Ellis on LTIR $6M.
That cap room gives them flexibility to trade players with money retained if they don't go stupid in free agency.
Hayes 2 years left, Laughton 2 years left
High pick in 2023 may be ready to play in 2024.

Farabee (24) - Couts (32) - TK (27)
Gauthier (20) - Hayes (32) - Foerster (22)
Cates (25) - Frost (25) - Tippett (25)
Laughton (30) - Desnoyers (22) - Wisdom (22)
Brink (23), Lycksell (24), Allison (27), Deslauriers (33), Ratcliffe (25)

Provorov (28) - TDA (29)???
Sanheim (28) - Risto (30)
York (24) - Zamula (24) - Andrae (22) - Attard (25)

Is this good enough? That's why Torts should have two years to determine who are the keepers, who should be packaged in trades for young talent to upgrade spots.