2022-23 Roster Discussion

[Mortimer Snerd]

I require speed and back checking... who cares if you score a goal if every game you directly cause 1-2 goals a game

PPG Stats like this don't mean much... I think Barron or Gus's effort/forechecking would be more valuable with PLD/Ehlers than Wheeler's overpassing

All that being said, Id have Wheeler at 2C until PLD is back...

Ya ..... but he doesn't lead to 1-2 GA every game. You are exaggerating his flaws, a lot.

You don't think Barron and Gus would make as many gaffs if put into the same circumstances? Those are players who have NEVER had Wheeler's talents. They would be every bit as bad defensively and they would score half as much.

I would like to see Wheeler on the 3rd line next year, with a more offensively skilled C than Lowry. But I would like it to be because we have a better 2RW option and Barron and Gus are not that.

I agree with playing him at 2C until Dubois gets back. Though the Lowry line did pretty well last night.

 

[voyageur]

At some point I think I'd like to see Harkins get a chance on line 4.

I don't think he's getting called up. I'd be interested to a lineup without Stenlund, maybe Namestnikov-Lowry-Appleton as the checking line, Barron-Gustafsson-Maenalanen as the 4th line, all big, can control the puck in the low end of the rink, all good defensive minded players.

If the Jets bottom six can go on lockdown, I like the chances of this team in a hard, close series. If the Jets wanted a completely different look, maybe Namestnikov plays top 6, Barron on the checking line, and Ehlers on the 4th line would change the appearance of this team. I think bigger, more physical players being relied on is something you might see from Bones.

 

[Huffer]

I don't think he's getting called up. I'd be interested to a lineup without Stenlund, maybe Namestnikov-Lowry-Appleton as the checking line, Barron-Gustafsson-Maenalanen as the 4th line, all big, can control the puck in the low end of the rink, all good defensive minded players.

If the Jets bottom six can go on lockdown, I like the chances of this team in a hard, close series. If the Jets wanted a completely different look, maybe Namestnikov plays top 6, Barron on the checking line, and Ehlers on the 4th line would change the appearance of this team. I think bigger, more physical players being relied on is something you might see from Bones.

Probably, but who knows. He's done what was asked and played well in the AHL.

And no thanks to Ehlers on the 4th.

 

[voyageur]

Probably, but who knows. He's done what was asked and played well in the AHL.

And no thanks to Ehlers on the 4th.

Ehlers is the most confounding player on this team. I don't necessarily know if his style of play adapted well from the previous coaching strategy. On a team that tries to generate offense more on low to high plays than transition speed, he looks a little out of place. He's not predictable other than you know he is going to curl back and pass more than 75% of the time he gets a zone entry.

I also think David Gustafsson is a smart enough player that he might break Nik out of his slump with some good passes from behind the net.

Put a Swede, a Finn and a Dane on the same line what language do they speak, and why is Norway no good at hockey?

 

[bennylundholm]

I don't think he's getting called up. I'd be interested to a lineup without Stenlund, maybe Namestnikov-Lowry-Appleton as the checking line, Barron-Gustafsson-Maenalanen as the 4th line, all big, can control the puck in the low end of the rink, all good defensive minded players.

If the Jets bottom six can go on lockdown, I like the chances of this team in a hard, close series. If the Jets wanted a completely different look, maybe Namestnikov plays top 6, Barron on the checking line, and Ehlers on the 4th line would change the appearance of this team. I think bigger, more physical players being relied on is something you might see from Bones.

Play Ehlers up with PLD and Connor. Gotta get him going. Plus, that line was amazing earlier this year.

 

[GaryPoppins]

He has been. Looks quicker and more decisive, much closer to the rising centre who was dominant in the A and ready to make his mark in the show.

If he can keep this up and continue to develop we have our Lowry in waiting.

Although he may have to wait until Lowry hangs up his skates to break into that 3rd-line lockbox.

I think we need to put past our thoughts of Lowry being a 3C. We haven’t won with him yet at 3C and on contending teams, he’s a strong 4 who can chip in on PK while playing 10-11 mins even strength.

I love him as a player, he’s committed to Winnipeg and works his tail off but I don’t know he’s even been more than a 3C/4C Tweener.

Ehlers is the most confounding player on this team. I don't necessarily know if his style of play adapted well from the previous coaching strategy. On a team that tries to generate offense more on low to high plays than transition speed, he looks a little out of place. He's not predictable other than you know he is going to curl back and pass more than 75% of the time he gets a zone entry.

I also think David Gustafsson is a smart enough player that he might break Nik out of his slump with some good passes from behind the net.

Put a Swede, a Finn and a Dane on the same line what language do they speak, and why is Norway no good at hockey?

Tbh, I feel as if he’s still not 100% after his hernia surgery. Seems to be lacking his speed that previously gave him separation.

 

[Huffer]

Ehlers is the most confounding player on this team. I don't necessarily know if his style of play adapted well from the previous coaching strategy. On a team that tries to generate offense more on low to high plays than transition speed, he looks a little out of place. He's not predictable other than you know he is going to curl back and pass more than 75% of the time he gets a zone entry.

I also think David Gustafsson is a smart enough player that he might break Nik out of his slump with some good passes from behind the net.

Put a Swede, a Finn and a Dane on the same line what language do they speak, and why is Norway no good at hockey?

Not necessarily directed at you, but I find it hilarious that first some posters claim that Ehlers is somehow above criticism on this site, but it's been nonstop Ehlers criticism for awhile now.

Which is funny since by almost every metric that I see posted by people like Garret and WPGChief that he is our most effective forward.

But according to the eye test of some here they don't like his "style ".

I don't care about if someone gets the job done with speed, physically, or IQ, as long as they get the results. And Ehlers is our best analytically at getting results.

I wonder if Garret was posting about Ehlers if he'd still be getting dunked on like he has lately.

 

[Adam da bomb]

Not necessarily directed at you, but I find it hilarious that first some posters claim that Ehlers is somehow above criticism on this site, but it's been nonstop Ehlers criticism for awhile now.

Which is funny since by almost every metric that I see posted by people like Garret and WPGChief that he is our most effective forward.

But according to the eye test of some here they don't like his "style ".

I don't care about if someone gets the job done with speed, physically, or IQ, as long as they get the results. And Ehlers is our best analytically at getting results.

I wonder if Garret was posting about Ehlers if he'd still be getting dunked on like he has lately.

I wonder if a player can be effective without making the team better. Not saying Ehlers, For instance if he doesn’t fit into the schemes and is individually effective but doesn’t make team better.
As some stats don’t make sense. Ehlers gets his shot through but is shooting from blue line when there is no one in front of the net the most effective play? Yet his shot on net % goes up.

 

[Huffer]

I wonder if a player can be effective without making the team better. Not saying Ehlers, For instance if he doesn’t fit into the schemes and is individually effective but doesn’t make team better.
As some stats don’t make sense. Ehlers gets his shot through but is shooting from blue line when there is no one in front of the net the most effective play? Yet his shot on net % goes up.

That would be interesting, I'd be interested in seeing if that could be proven.

Would that show itself in the WOWY metrics?

 

[voyageur]

Not necessarily directed at you, but I find it hilarious that first some posters claim that Ehlers is somehow above criticism on this site, but it's been nonstop Ehlers criticism for awhile now.

Which is funny since by almost every metric that I see posted by people like Garret and WPGChief that he is our most effective forward.

But according to the eye test of some here they don't like his "style ".

I don't care about if someone gets the job done with speed, physically, or IQ, as long as they get the results. And Ehlers is our best analytically at getting results.

I wonder if Garret was posting about Ehlers if he'd still be getting dunked on like he has lately.

Last 9 games, Ehlers has a PPG and 1 ES assist, -8. I don't think the analytic community can defend him here. I don't think the analytic community has the full armour of stats either, because things like good sticks by Maenalanen last night, good zone pressure, big blocks by Namestnikov and Maenalanen in the late minutes, coaches like those things, where statisticians may gloss over them. The only thing you can say is that Wheeler has 3 assists (1PP) and is -9 during the same stretch.

Now the coach is going to have to make tough decisions with those results. Your top line is going, moreso without Wheeler, generating the most offensive chances. Are they going to get split up? That would be a mistake, in my opinion. I'm pretty sure by any metric Mark Scheifele is responsible for generating the most offensive chances since the All Star break. But if the Ehlers-Wheeler combination isn't working, what's next for the team?

History would tell you that Ehlers is going to get demoted before Wheeler. Every coach has taken that approach so far. Whether it's the right choice or not, remains to be seen but you think Wheeler and Perfetti were for the most part an effective combination, so what's going south now?

Play Ehlers up with PLD and Connor. Gotta get him going. Plus, that line was amazing earlier this year.

Not at defending, that's why they got split up.

 

[Adam da bomb]

Last 9 games, Ehlers has a PPG and 1 ES assist, -8. I don't think the analytic community can defend him here. I don't think the analytic community has the full armour of stats either, because things like good sticks by Maenalanen last night, good zone pressure, big blocks by Namestnikov and Maenalanen in the late minutes, coaches like those things, where statisticians may gloss over them. The only thing you can say is that Wheeler has 3 assists (1PP) and is -9 during the same stretch.

Now the coach is going to have to make tough decisions with those results. Your top line is going, moreso without Wheeler, generating the most offensive chances. Are they going to get split up? That would be a mistake, in my opinion. I'm pretty sure by any metric Mark Scheifele is responsible for generating the most offensive chances since the All Star break. But if the Ehlers-Wheeler combination isn't working, what's next for the team?

History would tell you that Ehlers is going to get demoted before Wheeler. Every coach has taken that approach so far. Whether it's the right choice or not, remains to be seen but you think Wheeler and Perfetti were for the most part an effective combination, so what's going south now?


Not at defending, that's why they got split up.

Stats ppl definitely were able to defend Ehlers at shot %. He gets his shot through but often shoots from blue line.

 

[voyageur]

Stats ppl definitely were able to defend Ehlers at shot %. He gets his shot through but often shoots from blue line.

I think that's probably an issue that exists with the coach, where he would probably like him to attack more between the circles and off the boards, than from the higher points in the zone, where he almost automatically defaults, though the Jets do generate a lot of their offensive zone pressure from having a forward play near the top of the zone which allow either defenseman to pinch down.

I'm hoping it's just a slump for Ehlers. Where you have to play through injury and get the reps to get back up to speed. It does seem like he is fighting confidence too right now, and all it takes is one to get on a roll again...

 

[Atoyot]

Not at defending, that's why they got split up.

Out of lines that have had significant time together, that line leads the team in xGF% with 64.1, and had an actual goal for % of 63.6. So regardless of how bad they defended (not nearly as bad as you think) they more than made up for it in offense.

Oddly one of the most effective lines we've had was Barron-Lowry-Harkins. Still feel like this is a better team with Harkins on it.

 

[Huffer]

Last 9 games, Ehlers has a PPG and 1 ES assist, -8. I don't think the analytic community can defend him here. I don't think the analytic community has the full armour of stats either, because things like good sticks by Maenalanen last night, good zone pressure, big blocks by Namestnikov and Maenalanen in the late minutes, coaches like those things, where statisticians may gloss over them. The only thing you can say is that Wheeler has 3 assists (1PP) and is -9 during the same stretch.

Now the coach is going to have to make tough decisions with those results. Your top line is going, moreso without Wheeler, generating the most offensive chances. Are they going to get split up? That would be a mistake, in my opinion. I'm pretty sure by any metric Mark Scheifele is responsible for generating the most offensive chances since the All Star break. But if the Ehlers-Wheeler combination isn't working, what's next for the team?

History would tell you that Ehlers is going to get demoted before Wheeler. Every coach has taken that approach so far. Whether it's the right choice or not, remains to be seen but you think Wheeler and Perfetti were for the most part an effective combination, so what's going south now?


Not at defending, that's why they got split up.

I don't think many players have played that well the last 9 games, Ehlers included.But he's still the most effective forward over the longer period. This season and many past.

 

[voyageur]

The top part surprises me, especially the end result, because I guarantee they were split up for being boxed in too much defensively, where the wingers didn't win enough physical battles in the zone, and the possession time was heavily weighed against them. I wish there were possession zone times included with shot metrics, because that's one area statistically where I think there is some discrepancy. I look at the Barron goal as a good example, I can't remember if that shift generated a single shot, but they had significant possession time, and forced a goal on a line change as a consequence, as Edmonton never crossed centre. But there's no arguing that's a good finishing rate. I just don't see how Dubois takes the torch again, with Scheifele playing so well. His passing game is much better than Duby's in my opinion. He's been setting up the most high danger chances for quite some time. Is it good to have him carry Wheeler at this point in his career? What's the metrics for the 81-55-27 line?

Harkins was very good on that line, I remember that. Not sure if was a hot streak or competition. What's the metrics relative to defensive zone time for 36-17-22 in same kind of small sample size that fits 81-80-27? Because Apples has been Lowry's wingman in the playoffs before?

 

[BarnabyJones PI]

Not necessarily directed at you, but I find it hilarious that first some posters claim that Ehlers is somehow above criticism on this site, but it's been nonstop Ehlers criticism for awhile now.

Which is funny since by almost every metric that I see posted by people like Garret and WPGChief that he is our most effective forward.

But according to the eye test of some here they don't like his "style ".

I don't care about if someone gets the job done with speed, physically, or IQ, as long as they get the results. And Ehlers is our best analytically at getting results.

I wonder if Garret was posting about Ehlers if he'd still be getting dunked on like he has lately.

Well, I was one of those people. Kuhlman would be the definition of someone who's been getting nonstop criticism.

Wysh List: The most overrated advanced stats in hockey

We canvassed leaders in the hockey analytics community for their picks. Plus, Jersey Fouls, Winners and Losers of the week and more.

www.espn.com

I'm most intrigued by what was written by Dimitri Filipovic, at the end of this article.

"I'd say my biggest sticking point is the general application of context. I think nearly every metric has at least some kind of utility if it's equipped with the right level of nuance, but you can't just pick and choose based on a narrative you're trying to push."

The last piece I've read from Garret, was this (via Twitter).

"Super small samples with only 4 games played, but #NHLJets' Ehlers is 6th in the league in Game Score per game."

With also a post here on this forum, which said, "Update:
He's 2nd in my weighted GAR model (it weights both GAR and xGAR components to optimize predictivity and is superior to the individual models, IMO) per game only to McDavid.
Will fly stay a top 10 forward? who knows. But so far he's been."

When it's convenient, post a small sample size. Otherwise, people in analytics will always say that you need a large sample size to prove them wrong.

Perhaps Garret isn't posting because HE doesn't want to get dunked on.

 

[Gil Fisher]

I think some of you would be happier if Lowry scored more while giving up more. Focus should be on his net impact 5 v 5 while factoring offensive/defensive starts and quality of opposition.

Are you guys about “fancy stats” or not? Surprised you need a dinosaur like me to scoff at focusing on his offensive production in a vacuum.

Do better analysis.

I feel shame.

 

[MardyBum]

Fake news though.

 

[BoneDocUK]

I don't think many players have played that well the last 9 games, Ehlers included.But he's still the most effective forward over the longer period. This season and many past.

This.

Maybe a bit of recency bias here. Ehlers has been an enormously effective and efficient player here since he got his skates under him after a wobbly debut (expected, given the speed with which he made the jump from the Q).

Athletic Pubalgia injuries can be tricky, and show significant variability in recovery. Return to functionality is not the same as "just as good as before."

If you work as an accountant, then your boss may not notice a difference. If your job is an elite winger in the NHL, there's going to be peaks and dips in the performance curve that should even out with reps and time (but no guarantees).

Recovery ≠ return to sport ≠ "just as good as before, right away."

I don't think this is the time to sell low on Nik. Absent re-injury he should start to regain his range of motion, strength and speed.

And if he doesn't, we have any number of equivalent or better players to slot in and do what he does.

Oh wait --

 

[Huffer]

Well, I was one of those people. Kuhlman would be the definition of someone who's been getting nonstop criticism.

Wysh List: The most overrated advanced stats in hockey

We canvassed leaders in the hockey analytics community for their picks. Plus, Jersey Fouls, Winners and Losers of the week and more.

www.espn.com

I'm most intrigued by what was written by Dimitri Filipovic, at the end of this article.

"I'd say my biggest sticking point is the general application of context. I think nearly every metric has at least some kind of utility if it's equipped with the right level of nuance, but you can't just pick and choose based on a narrative you're trying to push."

The last piece I've read from Garret, was this (via Twitter).

"Super small samples with only 4 games played, but #NHLJets' Ehlers is 6th in the league in Game Score per game."

With also a post here on this forum, which said, "Update:
He's 2nd in my weighted GAR model (it weights both GAR and xGAR components to optimize predictivity and is superior to the individual models, IMO) per game only to McDavid.
Will fly stay a top 10 forward? who knows. But so far he's been."

When it's convenient, post a small sample size. Otherwise, people in analytics will always say that you need a large sample size to prove them wrong.

Perhaps Garret isn't posting because HE doesn't want to get dunked on.

I definitely wouldn't present myself as an analytical expert for sure. But from the analysis that has been done and that I've seen, he is our best forward at pushing the play and producing offense over a very long period of time.

He, like most of the top 6 could have produced more offense over our 10+ game slump for sure. That's on him and many others in the top 6.

But from the analysis that I see, he's still our best or one of our best at producing (as shown in post 968 as an example).

That doesn't mean he can't be criticized like others when he turns the puck over, or as in our recent slump if he's not putting up points. IMO though, his criticism seems to come from some not liking his "style", even though he's getting the job done better than any of our other forwards.

 

[Jet]

Not necessarily directed at you, but I find it hilarious that first some posters claim that Ehlers is somehow above criticism on this site, but it's been nonstop Ehlers criticism for awhile now.

Which is funny since by almost every metric that I see posted by people like Garret and WPGChief that he is our most effective forward.

But according to the eye test of some here they don't like his "style ".

I don't care about if someone gets the job done with speed, physically, or IQ, as long as they get the results. And Ehlers is our best analytically at getting results.

I wonder if Garret was posting about Ehlers if he'd still be getting dunked on like he has lately.

It's not about style for me with Ehlers. My main issue is he's not been effective since his return. Those guys can post whatever stats they want but it's not matching what I'm seeing on the ice.

It's obvious he's not as fast since he returned, and that includes top end speed, acceleration and agility. His game is extremely dependent on this as I think he's a average iq player.

What I'd like to see Nik do is just focus on his shot and getting it off right now while he fully recovers. I think he will stay scoring again if he does that. Put him with someone with some hands who goes to the net consistently like Niederraiter. There should at least be some rebound and tip chances there as well.

 

[Huffer]

It's not about style for me with Ehlers. My main issue is he's not been effective since his return. Those guys can post whatever stats they want but it's not matching what I'm seeing on the ice.

It's obvious he's not as fast since he returned, and that includes top end speed, acceleration and agility. His game is extremely dependent on this as I think he's a average iq player.

What I'd like to see Nik do is just focus on his shot and getting it off right now while he fully recovers. I think he will stay scoring again if he does that. Put him with someone with some hands who goes to the net consistently like Niederraiter. There should at least be some rebound and tip chances there as well.

I'm not sure if I've seen the stats from just this year for Ehlers so we'd have to see how those look. Seems like in post 968 he's still producing well though. And even with the slump over the last dozen or so games, he's still at .81 points per game this year (22 in 27).

I agree with your points though, he still doesn't look 100%, and I also would like to see him drive the net more and get shots there for tips and rebounds.

IMO though, it just seems like some are ok with throwing the baby out with the bathwater here.

 

[Jet]

I'm not sure if I've seen the stats from just this year for Ehlers so we'd have to see how those look. Seems like in post 968 he's still producing well though. And even with the slump over the last dozen or so games, he's still at .81 points per game this year (22 in 27).

I agree with your points though, he still doesn't look 100%, and I also would like to see him drive the net more and get shots there for tips and rebounds.

IMO though, it just seems like some are ok with throwing the baby out with the bathwater here.

It's going to be interesting to see what happens with Nik. I could see him staying but I could also see him move on as I think the relationship might be strained based on his usage. Of course, for all we know the way he's being deployed currently could be a fully understood and bought in plan between the coaches and Nik, we really don't know?

Athletes are famous for not being able to identify their own shortcomings and wanting to play a lot, all the time. Hellebuyck is famous for this.

In my dream scenario Ehlers recovers fully in the offseason and becomes the fly we all know and love again.

 

[Buffdog]

Fake news though.

Maybe because the reason he puts up points in the ice time he has is partially because he plays fewer minutes?

 

[TS Quint]

Can no longer see relevant posts but there were quite a few here who had concerns about bottom 6 scoring based on the past few seasons and really wanted to see Milano (or similar player) get a shot here.

Whether or why not we didn't see it happen no idea.

I still think that Chevy / org have a very specific idea of what they want in a roster -- Murat among others has pointed to this repeatedly. Scoring, scoring, shutdown, energy.

It seems to me like a throwback roster construction for the present league but there doesn't seem to have been much of an impetus to change that up, even where there were players available who might have helped that on.

I can't believe that in the past several years, given the talent available and the prices being asked, the Jets could not have found, for a reasonable price, a diamond in the rough who could have added some scoring and helped remake that roster.

So my guess is that this is how the Jets want to play. Maybe with time and roster changes -- Lowry's retirement? -- this will finally change.

I don’t see it the same.

I think you are ignoring Niederreiter, a player like him was part of this year’s plan.

Chevy went into the season with this team as a big question mark and that’s probably fair. After a couple years of failing to meet expectations. The whole roster seemed broken last year and who knows if it would come back together. So Chevy left it up to the team to decide (Top 8 forwards) and left the team construction incomplete. I don’t believe it was ever the plan to hit the playoffs with the team they had coming out of training camp.

So he dropped Little’s contract and created cap room. If the team plays well he goes and gets more players with the advantage of cap space if they don’t then save the draft picks and focus more on the future.

So the team had a good half season and was shitting the bed for the last month+. So the team gets the help they earned, Nino. Who they also get for another year At a reasonable price who he was willing to sign with someone else but not the Jets in FA.

Seems like a smart path to take considering the circus this team was last year.