2022-23 Roster Discussion

[Duke749]

5v5 points per 60 is a great stat. That’s how I know Tommy Novak is better than Connor McDavid…

Boy that’s some low hanging fruit if I’ve ever seen it

 

[voyageur]

Doesn't get more basic/distilled than 5v5 p/60 imo, what other stats would you prefer?

It's probably the 3.8 p/60 against which is driving coaches crazy. That's the worst on the team after Heinola. It's always hard to isolate why a player is succeeding or not succeeding through statistics. Because you can consider each person on the ice a variable in that equation. But one thing you can clearly see is Ehlers is playing without confidence, and the coach is losing confidence in him. Good night to turn things around.

 

[Duke749]

Doesn't get more basic/distilled than 5v5 p/60 imo, what other stats would you prefer?

I mean, in reality you need a big collection of stats to paint the whole picture combined with some eye test.

 

[SLAYER]

It's probably the 3.8 p/60 against which is driving coaches crazy.

I mean, in reality you need a big collection of stats to paint the whole picture combined with some eye test.

I agree, I was thinking of offensive impact, that was my bad!

 

[BarnabyJones PI]

It's the best comparison we have, accounting for ice time and removing special teams play as the large majority of games, especially playoff games are played at 5v5, no?

Like Buffdog, I too have issues with its scalability. For me, it's similar to some guy in the NBA who has a very high rebounds per game/per 36 minutes or per 100/possessions, but he's only playing limited minutes. Give him more minutes, is he that same guy? Likely no. Are the coaches trying to use him optimally (debatable)? Sure. Perhaps they can't hide him on defense. Perhaps he hoards rebounds, and never boxes out; to the detriment of his team. With most players, there's the law of diminishing returns.

So yes, I don't like that specific stat pts/60. I still reference it; meaning take note of it.

As it pertains to Ehlers though? I fall back on his getting gassed so quickly on shifts, and this isn't a new development. Yes, he's coming off an injury, some of speed isn't there (consistently), but he's often been a short shift guy in prior seasons. He has one burst, and then he might as well go back to the bench. I'm not a fan of his motor.

Goals, assists, points, are certainly not perfect either, and everyone here already knows this. It will still have utility though, going forward, as a number of metrics will prove to be flawed, and will inevitably be replaced.

ppl acting likes pts/60 is some complex equation. it's literally scoring efficiency on the amount you play. context factors obviously come into play, just like any other quantitative measure (ie: Goals, Power Play Points, Blocks etc.).

It isn't. I used "advanced", but I thought (not anymore) of anything above basic stats (goals/assists/points) was considered advanced to the average fan. From Garret's perspective? Hell no! On this forum, (whoops) no.

To add, it's not that basic either. They aren't exactly flashing it on screen when you're watching a game. No one is asking at a party, "What's Players X's pts/60 after two periods?" My use of "Advanced" is a bit much though, I agree.

 

[BarnabyJones PI]

It's the best comparison we have, accounting for ice time and removing special teams play as the large majority of games, especially playoff games are played at 5v5, no?

I missed this part.

Yes, this is the biggest culprit as to why I jumped off the Ehlers bandwagon 2 years ago.

 

[SLAYER]

So yes, I don't like that specific stat pts/60. I still reference it; meaning take note of it.

Haha that was pretty clear.

I missed this part.

Yes, this is the biggest culprit as to why I jumped off the Ehlers bandwagon 2 years ago.

Yeah, I've been hoping for him to have a breakout playoffs... maybe this is the year

 

[voyageur]

Like Buffdog, I too have issues with its scalability. For me, it's similar to some guy in the NBA who has a very high rebounds per game/per 36 minutes or per 100/possessions, but he's only playing limited minutes. Give him more minutes, is he that same guy? Likely no. Are the coaches trying to use him optimally (debatable)? Sure. Perhaps they can't hide him on defense. Perhaps he hoards rebounds, and never boxes out; to the detriment of his team. With most players, there's the law of diminishing returns.

So yes, I don't like that specific stat pts/60. I still reference it; meaning take note of it.

As it pertains to Ehlers though? I fall back on his getting gassed so quickly on shifts, and this isn't a new development. Yes, he's coming off an injury, some of speed isn't there (consistently), but he's often been a short shift guy in prior seasons. He has one burst, and then he might as well go back to the bench. I'm not a fan of his motor.

Goals, assists, points, are certainly not perfect either, and everyone here already knows this. It will still have utility though, going forward, as a number of metrics will prove to be flawed, and will inevitably be replaced.

It isn't. I used "advanced", but I thought (not anymore) of anything above basic stats (goals/assists/points) was considered advanced to the average fan. From Garret's perspective? Hell no! On this forum, (whoops) no.

To add, it's not that basic either. They aren't exactly flashing it on screen when you're watching a game. No one is asking at a party, "What's Players X's pts/60 after two periods?" My use of "Advanced" is a bit much though, I agree.

We don't have a lot of coaches (well maybe couch coaches) on these boards, it would be interesting to know what kind of data coaches look at between periods. On home ice you can change matchups, but on the road it's more likely to be personnel. I think @garret9 would have some idea.

 

[KingBogo]

If Bones let me pick the line up for tomorrow I'd go:

Nino-Scheifele-Ehlers
Connor-PLD-Names
Barron-Lowry-Wheeler
Axel-Stenlund-Apples

JoMo-DeMelo
Dillon-Pionk
Samberg-Schmidt

Give Ehlers and Connor a bit of a shake up with new centers. Nino and Scheifele seem to work well together. Try Names up ahead of Wheeler. I like Axel's speed on the 4th line.

 

[scelaton]

That's a bit of a strawman

I'm not saying that Ehlers isn't a more skilled player and better point producer than those guys

What I'm saying is that he's a fast and slightly built perimeter player whose p/60 won't (in my opinion) increase linearly with increased ice time

They've always managed his minutes and match ups

Ehlers has not scored less when he has had more ice time.

And his p/60 has been so much better than our other RWs that even a small decrease in production with added minutes would still lead to better results for the team.

It may be moot while he is recovering from surgery, but I would have given him significantly more ice time and opportunity than he has had, especially considering the alternatives.

 

[Buffdog]

Ehlers has not scored less when he has had more ice time.

And his p/60 has been so much better than our other RWs that even a small decrease in production with added minutes would still lead to better results for the team.

It may be moot while he is recovering from surgery, but I would have given him significantly more ice time and opportunity than he has had, especially considering the alternatives.

Yeah, his p/60 is WAY better then Wheeler's. That 0.2 p/60 means that he scores one more point than wheeler ever 300 minutes.

 

[Lomac]

I'm all for more Ehlers and less Wheeler

 

[gojetsgo]

I'm all for more Ehlers and less Wheeler

I'm for more ehlers as long as it's a healthy ehlers which it doesn't look like were getting

 

[WolfHouse]

How does kuhlman stay on rhis roster

 

[gojetsgo]

How does kuhlman stay on rhis roster

I think there is at least 3 people ahead of him right now, so unless we get many injuries again he shouldn't get it

 

[bennylundholm]

Can't believe Stenlund is playing in the NHL.

 

[DRW204]

 

[gojetsgo]

 

[BoneDocUK]

Barron for Wheeler. Double the speed of that line. Make it happen, Bones.

Also, what has KFC done lately to keep him on the top line at all costs? Puzzling.

Looking forward to a new, bold, brilliantly retooled PP1.

 

[Gm0ney]

View attachment 664953
Yeah, his p/60 is WAY better then Wheeler's. That 0.2 p/60 means that he scores one more point than wheeler ever 300 minutes.

This is all-strengths so it counts Wheeler's PP1 time and his shifts against the empty net...didn't someone point this out to you recently?

Anyway, Wheeler is 2.00 p/60 and Ehlers is 2.65 p/60 at 5v5.

On top of Ehlers being 32.5% more effective at scoring at 5v5, he also tilts the ice the right way with a 53% xGF when he's out there. Without Ehlers, the Jets xGF% is 51.3% (-1.7 worse without him).

Wheeler, along with his lower scoring rate, tilts the ice the wrong way with a 49.2% xGF. Without Wheeler, the Jets xGF% is 52.3% (+3.1 better without him).

Keep in mind, Ehlers has taken 4 minutes in penalties but drawn 20 minutes (+16 in favor of the Jets). While Blake Wheeler has taken 26 minutes in penalties and drawn only 14 (-12). In terms of per-60, Ehlers takes 0.66 PIM/60, and draws 3.31 PIM/60 (+2.65/60). Wheeler takes 2.09 PIM/60 and draws 1.12 PIM/60 (-0.97/60).

 

[LowLefty]

Barron for Wheeler. Double the speed of that line. Make it happen, Bones.

Also, what has KFC done lately to keep him on the top line at all costs? Puzzling.

Looking forward to a new, bold, brilliantly retooled PP1.

Who would you suggest replace him on the top line - assuming it's someone that is going to be better.
They're all in a rut - do we want to pull the blender out again or do we want to work through it?

 

[Buffdog]

This is all-strengths so it counts Wheeler's PP1 time and his shifts against the empty net...didn't someone point this out to you recently?

Anyway, Wheeler is 2.00 p/60 and Ehlers is 2.65 p/60 at 5v5.

On top of Ehlers being 32.5% more effective at scoring at 5v5, he also tilts the ice the right way with a 53% xGF when he's out there. Without Ehlers, the Jets xGF% is 51.3% (-1.7 worse without him).

Wheeler, along with his lower scoring rate, tilts the ice the wrong way with a 49.2% xGF. Without Wheeler, the Jets xGF% is 52.3% (+3.1 better without him).

Keep in mind, Ehlers has taken 4 minutes in penalties but drawn 20 minutes (+16 in favor of the Jets). While Blake Wheeler has taken 26 minutes in penalties and drawn only 14 (-12). In terms of per-60, Ehlers takes 0.66 PIM/60, and draws 3.31 PIM/60 (+2.65/60). Wheeler takes 2.09 PIM/60 and draws 1.12 PIM/60 (-0.97/60).

K, I see you like speaking in relatives vs absolutes. I prefer the latter.

That .65 points per 60 at about 12 minutes of even strength minutes per game means that ehlers puts up an extra point every 7 or 8 games, for an extra 10 even strength points over the course of a season. That isn't changing the outcome of our season.

I have no interest in speaking about the xGF stats since that isn't how hockey games are won or lost. As for the pim... I'm curious as to how many goals that actually leads to. I could do the math involving pp and pk percentages, but I have a feeling it's insignificant too

 

[BoneDocUK]

Who would you suggest replace him on the top line - assuming it's someone that is going to be better.
They're all in a rut - do we want to pull the blender out again or do we want to work through it?

Right now that line has 3 shooters, one quasi-digger in NN and one sometimes carrier in KFC.

Maybe swap Ehlers in for KFC? Then you have an uber-carrier in Nik, distributors / shooters and some truculence in NN and 55.

And KFC as an actual shooting threat on an otherwise somewhat neutered 2nd line.

If you’re concerned about Nik”S ice time, chuck KFC out for some extra shifts with 55/62. He can handle it.

 

[BarnabyJones PI]

Right now that line has 3 shooters, one quasi-digger in NN and one sometimes carrier in KFC.

Maybe swap Ehlers in for KFC? Then you have an uber-carrier in Nik, distributors / shooters and some truculence in NN and 55.

And KFC as an actual shooting threat on an otherwise somewhat neutered 2nd line.

If you’re concerned about Nik”S ice time, chuck KFC out for some extra shifts with 55/62. He can handle it.

They should demote KC. He's playing his worst hockey, that I've seen from him in years. He needs a wake-up call. Maurice used to demote him all of the time in his first couple of seasons.

And each time, he answered the bell, and they had no reason but to promote him back to the 1st line.

Has Nik ever carried Scheifele? Shouldn't he first "carry" himself? He has 2 goals in his last 20 games.

 

[BoneDocUK]

They should demote KC. He's playing his worst hockey, that I've seen from him in years. He needs a wake-up call. Maurice used to demote him all of the time in his first couple of seasons.

And each time, he answered the bell, and they had no reason but to promote him back to the 1st line.

Has Nik ever carried Scheifele? Shouldn't he first "carry" himself? He has 2 goals in his last 20 games.

Puck carrier, not Scheifele-carrier.