What net stats are you looking at? He's a -8 at 5v5 this year (2nd worst) and was a -12 last season (worst). These aren't even "fancy stats."
2022-23 Roster Discussion
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If someone has much heavier defensive starts and plays against high end players, would you call his net impact negative based on your example?
My recommendation is for you to use better analysis factoring in opposition and % of starts in which zone.
tbcwpg
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Sure, like I said I'm not absolving him of some missed opportunities but I think he's in more than we see reported but it doesn't work out.
The rest is just based on our respective opinions about whether they cast a wider net in the summer or not.
Yes I would still call it net negative because if we use your simplistic analysis of goals for and against, it's a negative. If you want to say it's a negative because of X, Y and Z, then sure, but it's still negative, and from what I've seen from Lowry's opportunities in the O-Zone, his lack of scoring isn't because of extra defensive responsibilities.
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WolfHouse
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since you're adept at zone starts etc what's an acceptable "net offense" league wide for players with his zone starts and his quality of competition?
They do have stats that do this. That's the whole basis of RAPM which considers contextual factors such as linemates and opposition. If we should be about fancy stats I guess post those charts?
He/His line is solid defensively no one is disputing that. His line get chances but they're not good/consistent enough to convert. I don't know why this is ao strenuous for some? You can't expect the top 6 to score 3-4 every game. Slumps happen. And scoring depth in the PO's is paramount.
Look at the difference of his on-ice xGA vs GA and xGF vs GF. They're slightly positive in chances for vs against. But heavy negative in goals for and against, and that's with good goaltending (his on-ice GA < xGA)
No one is saying he should be a world beater offensively. But many beleive you do need better offense and scoring depth down the line up. How many cup contenders or winners have a non-scoring third line?
And just a disclaimer it's not ALL on him. His wingers have not produced either.
Can no longer see relevant posts but there were quite a few here who had concerns about bottom 6 scoring based on the past few seasons and really wanted to see Milano (or similar player) get a shot here.
Whether or why not we didn't see it happen no idea.
I still think that Chevy / org have a very specific idea of what they want in a roster -- Murat among others has pointed to this repeatedly. Scoring, scoring, shutdown, energy.
It seems to me like a throwback roster construction for the present league but there doesn't seem to have been much of an impetus to change that up, even where there were players available who might have helped that on.
I can't believe that in the past several years, given the talent available and the prices being asked, the Jets could not have found, for a reasonable price, a diamond in the rough who could have added some scoring and helped remake that roster.
So my guess is that this is how the Jets want to play. Maybe with time and roster changes -- Lowry's retirement? -- this will finally change.
Whether or why not we didn't see it happen no idea.
I still think that Chevy / org have a very specific idea of what they want in a roster -- Murat among others has pointed to this repeatedly. Scoring, scoring, shutdown, energy.
It seems to me like a throwback roster construction for the present league but there doesn't seem to have been much of an impetus to change that up, even where there were players available who might have helped that on.
I can't believe that in the past several years, given the talent available and the prices being asked, the Jets could not have found, for a reasonable price, a diamond in the rough who could have added some scoring and helped remake that roster.
So my guess is that this is how the Jets want to play. Maybe with time and roster changes -- Lowry's retirement? -- this will finally change.
The whole energy thing is fine
Coleman-Gourde-Goodrow were an absolute buzzsaw on the forecheck as an energy line.
Boston is usually a great defensive team, and Carolina as well are a heavy forecheck team. They both have 10 players above the 10 goal mark. You can do both.
kanadalainen
A pint of dark matter, please.
He belongs for now. He is still not far off being a PPG player. When Perfetti is back I'd have him in the top 6 and move Wheeler down, but for now he is our best option.
JetsFan815
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Guess who these two players are, these are their 5v5 numbers:
Player 1: 709 TOI, 24 points, 2.03 pts/60
Player 2: 831 TOI, 26 points, 1.88 pts/60
Hint: One of these player is considered washed up drag on the team who should be bought out and the other is considered by some to be a franchise type player the criticism of whose game many here don't like to hear and those critisizing him get accused of "bias".
Player 1: 709 TOI, 24 points, 2.03 pts/60
Player 2: 831 TOI, 26 points, 1.88 pts/60
Hint: One of these player is considered washed up drag on the team who should be bought out and the other is considered by some to be a franchise type player the criticism of whose game many here don't like to hear and those critisizing him get accused of "bias".
tbcwpg
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Saku and AJF?
Seriously though, you're mischaracterizing the criticism said poster gets about Player 2.
JetsFan815
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I am inclined to agree... there is a clear pattern in the depth players they acquire- the one you have identified. Only Svechnikov and Gagner in recent years don't fit that mold and neither esp not Svech were given much of a leash.
I get people saying that market attractiveness prevents them from signing guys in the summer but there are guys who often go unsigned, sign PTOs and end up signing in the preseason at league minimum (eg. Milano, Sprong) who would jump at a shot if the Jets offered them a $1 million in the summer and help with scoring but we seem to have no interest.
It's Wheeler and Dubois.
The thing though is PLD when on can drive play really well and outscores well.
Wheeler at this stage in his career doesn't drive play much and tends not to be all that great in terms of possesion and outscoring. He can still pot some points though which is definitely beneficial to the team.
But I have been a bit underwhelmed with Dubois's scoring rates 5 on 5 going back 3 years now. All of the other top 6 players produce more points.
- Jun 10, 2014
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This!
The off-season is the time to build your roster with, maybe a little tweaking at the TD.
Something that we see here often when discussing trading top level assets, at the TD or other times, is something along the lines of, picks after the top 15 (give or take) are unlikely to make the NHL. If they do make it, they will be bottom 6/3rd pair players. Players of that calibre are always available. They can be bought cheaply anytime. And yet, Jets go year after year with these weaknesses in the lower parts of the roster. Meanwhile, we have these supposedly good/promising prospects in the system that have a really hard time getting opportunity to move up.
I think it all comes back to wanting Lowry as your 3C. We all know and I bet the org knows that he doesn't mesh with skilled players. So they go out and try to find ayers who mesh with his limited skill set. Those players are often grinders and low scoring d first players. There is no point grabbing skilled bottom 6 players if they won't work with the player you insist on playing in the 3 hole.
Until the org elects to move on from Adam in that role we won't see much difference imo.
puck stoppa
Registered User
I know Lowry needs to be on our fourth line for us to be contenders but I think him and Barron can be 30 point producers on the third line.
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Certainly a possibility. But they could play Adam at 3LW. A more offensively skilled 3C could get enough scoring from him to make for a 2 way 3rd line, maybe depending on who the other winger is. Also could then make a good landing spot for a declining Wheeler as that other winger.
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Maybe it doesn't work out because Chevy doesn't make the right offer for the right player. That would be especially likely if he is favouring sub-optimal characteristics.
Just as it would be foolish to assume we could have any player we wanted if Chevy would just make the right offer, it is foolish to assume that Chevy always does his job perfectly. It is more reasonable to assume that he sometimes makes mistakes.
We could speculate that Preds got Nieder by being the first ones to offer reasonable AAV and 2 years term. Maybe Chevy could have had him a week earlier by using term the same way.
We shouldn't assume that every player who rejects an offer does so because, Winnipeg. Sometimes it may be the offer that is rejected.
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He is still scoring at .8333 PPG. What do you require from a 2nd line winger?
WolfHouse
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I'd take Barron or Gus over him in the top six... Wheeler has multiple gaffs each game and doesn't have the speed to backcheck - something is up...
BarnabyJones PI
I'd kindly settle for a tall glass of milk.
One of the biggest culprits for PLD and KC production slides - seeing how they were both pacing towards 100 point seasons a little over a month ago - would be how often Schmidt has been matched-up with their line over that length of time; when they were on the same line.
Schmidt can really dull down an offense.
This isn't just recently either. In the offensive zone, he has an incredibly bad habit of holding onto the puck a full second or two, before making a pass. He'll often see a player to pass the puck to, yet override passing to the open player (who's generally in a better position to advance the play) so he can survey the entire ice to see if there's a better option out there to pass the puck to. And when he (often) sees that there's no better option than player A, he decides THEN to pass to A, only the defense has already had enough time to converge on player A; and Schmidt will then make a bad pass in traffic, going nowhere, or dump it into a corner that none of his teammates can get to.
Coming out of his own zone, when the other team is making a questionable line change, instead of whipping the puck up to his forwards who have a clear numbers advantage, again, he holds onto the puck forever.
He has a proponent of killing plays that have already materialized, or kills plays even before they can materialize.
His pluses on offense, specifically the power play, is that he has can have a decent shot from the blue line, and he has a pretty good knack - all things considered - for keeping the puck in. He also makes the rare, surprising play where he'll jump into the play (like a cutter in basketball) and drive like a bonafide power forward.
Josh Morrissey was also pacing at a 100 point season at the same time that PLD and KC were, and that's no coincidence, seeing that those 3 had chemistry, and were getting plenty of exposure playing together. People get so focused on specific lines, but they should also concentrate just as much on a line being 2 forwards and 1 offensive defenseman working in tandem as a line; shifting to the other winger having more defensive responsibilities.
Also, why can't Baron be THAT guy more often? What is he doing all of those other listless games? The Cam Neely comparison (or John LeClair) wouldn't be far off IF he was locked in like he has been over these past two games. Is he an enigma?
Schmidt can really dull down an offense.
This isn't just recently either. In the offensive zone, he has an incredibly bad habit of holding onto the puck a full second or two, before making a pass. He'll often see a player to pass the puck to, yet override passing to the open player (who's generally in a better position to advance the play) so he can survey the entire ice to see if there's a better option out there to pass the puck to. And when he (often) sees that there's no better option than player A, he decides THEN to pass to A, only the defense has already had enough time to converge on player A; and Schmidt will then make a bad pass in traffic, going nowhere, or dump it into a corner that none of his teammates can get to.
Coming out of his own zone, when the other team is making a questionable line change, instead of whipping the puck up to his forwards who have a clear numbers advantage, again, he holds onto the puck forever.
He has a proponent of killing plays that have already materialized, or kills plays even before they can materialize.
His pluses on offense, specifically the power play, is that he has can have a decent shot from the blue line, and he has a pretty good knack - all things considered - for keeping the puck in. He also makes the rare, surprising play where he'll jump into the play (like a cutter in basketball) and drive like a bonafide power forward.
Josh Morrissey was also pacing at a 100 point season at the same time that PLD and KC were, and that's no coincidence, seeing that those 3 had chemistry, and were getting plenty of exposure playing together. People get so focused on specific lines, but they should also concentrate just as much on a line being 2 forwards and 1 offensive defenseman working in tandem as a line; shifting to the other winger having more defensive responsibilities.
Also, why can't Baron be THAT guy more often? What is he doing all of those other listless games? The Cam Neely comparison (or John LeClair) wouldn't be far off IF he was locked in like he has been over these past two games. Is he an enigma?
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WolfHouse
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I require speed and back checking... who cares if you score a goal if every game you directly cause 1-2 goals a game
PPG Stats like this don't mean much... I think Barron or Gus's effort/forechecking would be more valuable with PLD/Ehlers than Wheeler's overpassing
All that being said, Id have Wheeler at 2C until PLD is back...
Huffer
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At some point I think I'd like to see Harkins get a chance on line 4.
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I think you are inflating Adam's effects. Give him a couple of wingers who can defend AND score a bit and he looks a lot better. Peak Tanev and Armia for example.
I agree that the org seems excessively committed to him. They may or may not be wedded to that score, score, shutdown, energy model. It does appear that they are, but maybe that changes if they get different players. Chicken or egg.
