I certainly appreciate your time on this, so I would like to ask with all that being said.....is PV failing big time in his 1st full season with the team, by doing what he did and putting this "rebuilding team"/"developing young players" in the current situation they are in?......what would you say is the "ideal" look for this team?......while i understand bringing young players along in the NHL is very important, i believe how they are brought along is just as or more so important.....i think we as a organization have failed a lot of young players because we put them where we needed them to be and not where they needed to be (or in roles), then they are used correctly on other teams and seem to perform well...and i dont put ANY current ex-duck on PV.
=== Rebuild, players, and player development... oh my! ===
Rebuilds are ugly and can't sugar coat the lack of talent on the team for years. < ---
Going from a rebuild team roster to a playoff team roster, players are bound to improve their production on a playoff team.
Mahura is the only youth I know that's improved away from the Ducks.
Recently removed youth Ducks Milano and Steel have not vastly improved. Do we talk about them? Nope. Ritchie has bounced between four organizations in three seasons. Kase has also bounced around, but four teams in four seasons. (Although, it's due to his concussion than his play.) Montour is in his fifth season away from the Ducks (including his traded season), but only now people are talking about what a mistake the Ducks did? Montour is on his second team since being traded from the Ducks.
D Pettersson hasn't blossomed beyond what he was here in Anaheim, which was a young defensive D with a little offense.
People only talk about successes and omit non-successes because it's easier to have a narrative.
A few players that actually improved play while in Anaheim are D Gudbranson, D Hakanpaa, and D Fleury. Anaheim revived Gudbranson's career. Hakanpaa came across the pond as an older rookie and evolved in Eakins' system from a stay-at-home D to a pinching D. Haydn Fleury's career looked so promising that the Seattle Kraken took him in the Expansion draft instead of G Stolarz or F Henrique.
=== Ideal situation for a rebuild ===
To be honest, there really isn't an ideal situation b/c you're dealing with a crap roster, not adding top-6F/top-4D, and trying to bring up youths simultaneously.
Murray tried to bring in the youth in a layered function, but unforeseen injuries derailed that long term plan.
Ducks | | | | | | |
---|
Player | 2016-17 | 2017-18 | 2018-19 | 2019-20 | 2020-21 | 2021-22 |
C Getzlaf | x | x | x | x | x | |
RW Perry | x | x | x | x | x | |
C Kesler | x (ext) | x | x | x | x | x |
F Eaves | x (TDL) | x (ext) | x | x | | |
C Henrique | | x (Trade) | x | x(ext) | x | x |
| | | | | | |
Playoffs | WCF | 1st rd | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a |
GM Murray had plans to have a solid veteran core in the layers listed above to stick around while he tried to prepare for life after the Twins. The 2016-2018 drafts, Murray neglected a balanced draft approach to find as many forwards as possible. Murray started this while the team was still in its playoff run, to avoid a complete teardown/rebuild.
2015: Rd 5. RW Terry already proved to be a steal in his D+0 season.
2016: Rd 1. LW Jones; Rd 1. C Steel
2017: no first round due to Eaves trade; Rd 2. LW Comtois; Rd 2. C Morand
2018: Rd 1. C Lundestrom, Rd 2. C Groulx, Rd 3. LW McLaughlin
Looking at the contracts signed, the earliest any forward would be needed would have been in 2020-21.
Ducks | Injuries | | | | | |
---|
Player | 2016-17 | 2017-18 | 2018-19 | 2019-20 | 2020-21 | 2021-22 |
C Getzlaf | x | x | x | x | x | |
RW Perry | x | x | Injured | bought out | bought out | |
C Kesler | x | Injured | Injured | DNP | DNP | DNP |
F Eaves | x (TDL) | Injured | Injured | DNP | | |
C Henrique | | x | x | x | x | x |
Injuries plagued the Ducks' top forwards in 2017-18 to where the Ducks were forced to make a trade for a center. Ducks sent D Vatanen for Devils C/LW Rico.
The injuries to the top forward core continued into 2018-19. It forced the youths onto the NHL roster sooner than expected in 20-year old C Steel and 18-year old C Lundestrom. That's two years earlier than the projected date based upon the contract lengths of the top forwards.
Anaheim started the rebuild at the 2018-19 TDL. GM Murray knew that both Kelser and Eaves would never play in the NHL again. Also, Murray wanted to move on from Perry and bought him out during the 2019 summer.
Just looking at our draft selection details how bad our team was.
2019 draft: finished 8th, selected 9th.
2020 draft: finished 5th, selected 5th.
2021 draft: finished 2nd, selected 3rd.
2021-22 season had three young forwards take significant steps forward in Terry, Zegras, and Lundestrom. The veterans were healthy to start the season in captain C Getz, LW Rico, RW Silf, D Lindholm, and D Manson. Murray also hired new assistant coaches to improve the PP and PK. Everything worked to start the season, but knowing full well we didn't have any NHL depth if injuries arose. Injuries did happen, but Murray had resigned earlier in the season on Nov 10th. The team didn't have the power to do anything until it found a new GM, which happened on Feb 3, about three months after Murray resigned.
=== PV Remake ===
When Verbeek became the new GM on Feb 3, during the Olympic break, the team possessed a balanced roster, but lacking NHL talent depth. It's just my opinion, but I believed Verbeek wanted to reset the team all along so he didn't have to deal with cap issues. The first sign of a potential rebuild was that Verbeek didn't try to find a replacement for Manson when his injury projected Manson to be out for a long time. Verbeek left the team flailing on purpose. Another proof of this is rejecting a team friendly, low AAV, but 8-year term for 1D Lindholm. Lindholm was traded away for concussion prone D prospect Vaaks, a cap dump in D Moore, a late 2022 1st rd pick, a 2nd rd pick in 2023, and a 2nd rd pick in 2024. That's great for a rental, but one day after the trade, Lindholm signed an 8-year deal worth $6.5 mil AAV. Lindholm said he would have signed for less to stay with the Ducks.
Verbeek doesn't care about the now or near future because it's a rebuild. He doesn't want to deal with extra complexities like Murray would be able to handle. At the TDL, the balance and physicality of the team was traded away by trading away all of its most physical players and top defensive players in D Lindholm, D Manson, and F Des.
The time to be upset with Verbeek would have been at the TDL b/c he gutted the team and set us back to year 2/3 of a rebuild. People didn't get upset at the lack of physicality until star forward Troy Terry got his ass handed to him. There was no priority to upgrade the defensive group going into the off-season. There was a priority to replace the loss of Getzlaf and Rakell with Strome and Vatrano. That's it. No long term plan for the rest of the team unlike Murray.
Verbeek inherited youths RW Terry, C Zegras, C Lundestrom, D Drysdale, LW Jones, and LW Comtois. Then there's the top-5 farm team that included C McTavish, D Zellweger, RW Pastajov, D Thrun, D Lacombe, D Moore, and RW Colangelo. Then tack on the large haul of picks Verbeek received at the TDL, then it's easy to see that Verbeek wants to build through the draft. He used all the 2022 draft picks. That's yet another clue that Verbeek wasn't trying to become a contender for 2022-23 season.
After most of the FA had come and gone, D Klingberg misjudged the market and took sloppy tenths by signing a 1-year deal worth $7 mil. Klingberg is an offensive talent, but he doesn't replace top-4 shutdown defensemen Verbeek lost at the TDL. Doesn't matter, Klingbert is viewed as a TDL asset to accrue more draft picks. Before the start of the season, Verbeek traded for D Kulikov from Minny. Minny was grateful for the cap dump and didn't pay anything for the cap dump. Kulikov is also on the last year of his contract and another TDL asset.
Verbeek cares about adding more draft picks to help remake this team and the development of the youths. His long term plans doesn't place a lot of concern with the short term suffering as long as there's development going on.
Why people are upset a few games into this season is mystifying. How many instances must Verbeek give one to show he's in it for a long rebuild? The TDL was bad enough. Telling the team they have to know how to defend themselves after stripping the team of enforcers. Using all the draft picks at the draft instead of packaging one or two for top-6 or top-4 NHL talent. Not adding more top-6 forwards, two top-4 shutdown D, or physicality/enforcer-type during the off-season.
Rebuilds are crap and ugly. Verbeek did this by design. I can see where he's going with it and it looks promising in the long run, but it's disgraceful for the time being. Fortunately, it won't take five or six seasons because of what Verbeek was gifted with. I think two more seasons of development and Verbeek can take the next steps.
Under Murray, his plans of layering wer destroyed by injuries of top forwards and then in the rebuild his defensive corps got destroyed for two consecutive seasons. Murray made the most of it for three consecutive drafts with Zegras, Drysdale, and McTavsih along with Terry becoming a superstar. It looked like we were done rebuilding last year and the coming off-season is when Murray would start adding more NHL talent to the set roster, especially with a deep defensive prospect pool and only two roster spots open (provided Manson and Lindholm were re-signed).
Verbeek is doing the rebuild in stages.
2022-23: Focus on developing forwards.
2023-24: Focus on developing D at AHL and NHL level
2024-25: Continue developing D at NHL level
2025-26: Start contending.
What I don't like about Verbeek's plan is he's married to his rubric and doesn't care much about loyalty, just one player's productivity and term. Verbeek is just amassing assets right now, but the roster construction is still suspect. He's banking on home grown talent to be the stalwarts on the blue line, but that might also take a little longer time. If Verbeek signs both NCAA boys in Thrun and LaCombe, then it will accelerate the D development a bit faster and not rush Zellweger, Mintyukov, Hinds, Moore, Luneau, or Warren.
I will give a lot of credit to Verbeek in increasing not only the front office with stats, but also adding more medical/physical therapists to both the Ducks and Gulls.
Again, I see where Verbeek is trying to take us, but between then and now, it'll be shit show. As long as there's development, then Verbeek is happy. Terry and Zegras are proving their breakout wasn't a fluke. Drysdale looked good late, but then injured for the season. Lundy has taken a step back. I have no idea what exactly we're doing with McTavish, but it looks as though they're taking the scenic route with him.
...
Is PV failing in the rebuild? You can't tell until years later. If the team ends up with Bedard or Fantilli, then failing this year might appear to be a temporary win. If we're not trying to contend by 2025-26, then the rebuild was a failure.