Rumor: 2022-2023 Trade Rumors and Free Agency (Mod Warning in OP)

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Not a great comparison really. Baseball is a far more static game compared to hockey which is a incredibly dynamic sport.

Advanced stats very clearly have their place in the sport and certainly paint a good picture but it certainly isn't the end all be all.

This is the argument everyone makes when saying Advanced stats doesn't have the same place in Hockey as it does Baseball... It just isn't true though.

I really dont care to go dig up any of the studies that show this... But essentially hockey can be broken down very similar to baseball with the same static events occurring repeatedly inside of a game, and advanced stats are getting increasingly accurate at evaluating how players react to those same scenarios.

Hockey is far more similar to baseball then people realize... Again its largely in part because the advanced stat movement in hockey is about 10-15 years behind baseball. Some of the comments on "eye test" will be hilarious to look back on when we're into the 2030's.
 
To some extent, yes. But baseball is almost a pure numbers game. It's so individualistic and each play is reset to the same 9 guys lined up in the same 9 positions on defense with a batter. So you can narrow everything down to a statistical situation. How many guys on base, what inning, what's the score, type of pitch, location of pitch, what field, etc.

Hockey is much more of a team sport. Systems, teammates, linemates, opposing lines, momentum, line changes, positioning, and your interactions with other players change from shift to shift, period to period, game to game, team to team. There is too much human variability to fully parse down in statistics which is why the eye test will always matter more in hockey than in baseball. Advanced stats are certainly hugely helpful and I'm glad the Avs are invested in them but they don't tell a full story at all like they do in baseball.

Again, see above.


Literally the same arguments were made against analytics in baseball 20 years ago.

"No 2 pitches are the same. Every at bat is different. Every pitcher is different. Every Fly ball is different."


And by the way up until about 2 years ago I was the same way with Hockey. A couple of my friends who have developed their own statistical models in recent years made the same arguments to me that fell on deaf ears.

And my classic argument was essentially "Hockey is nothing like baseball. You've got 5 teammates on the ice at any one time and not always the same 5 teammates, every zone entry is different, every shot attempt is different, every zone exit is different, the scenarios of being ahead vs. trailing vs. tied are all different" etc. etc. etc.


But I was wrong.
 
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Maybe, nobody really knows how it will play out. The foundation is there to do more than die in 5 years.
It is pretty unlikely... when your best players get to 30 or above, it gets really hard to win a Cup. To do so, you need elite drafting where you can replenish impact players in the top 6/top4 with 2nd-5th round picks.
 
Maybe, nobody really knows how it will play out. The foundation is there to do more than die in 5 years.

Agree with this, everyone wrote off Washington after their multiple failures and they were able to finally piece a run together. Pittsburgh were able to make another run 7 years after winning their first. As long as we have the core pieces with us, we should stay competitive. I'm sure there will be plenty of retools along the way. The Mackinnon contract will be huge, really hope he buys in and gives us a discount.
 
Agree with this, everyone wrote off Washington after their multiple failures and they were able to finally piece a run together. Pittsburgh were able to make another run 7 years after winning their first. As long as we have the core pieces with us, we should stay competitive. I'm sure there will be plenty of retools along the way. The Mackinnon contract will be huge, really hope he buys in and gives us a discount.

As perspective... Crosby was 29, Malkin 30 and Letang just turned 31 when they won their second in a row. Ovi was 32, Kutnetsov was 26, Backstrom 30, Carlson was 28. Tampa guys last year... Kuch 28, Point 26, Hedman 30, Stamkos 31.

Teams don't win very often when their cores get into their 30s. You can point to some, yeah. But once the majority of the core ticks over and gets to 32-33... it's over.
 
Again, see above.


Literally the same arguments were made against analytics in baseball 20 years ago.

"No 2 pitches are the same. Every at bat is different. Every pitcher is different. Every Fly ball is different."


And by the way up until about 2 years ago I was the same way with Hockey. A couple of my friends who have developed their own statistical models in recent years made the same arguments to me that fell on deaf ears.

And my classic argument was essentially "Hockey is nothing like baseball. You've got 5 teammates on the ice at any one time and not always the same 5 teammates, every zone entry is different, every shot attempt is different, every zone exit is different, the scenarios of being ahead vs. trailing vs. tied are all different" etc. etc. etc.


But I was wrong.
Hockey is a very different sport than baseball. The same arguments weren't made because they couldn't be made. Baseball is a team of a bunch of individuals playing individually for the most part. Sure you catch the ball from another player and you may have some creativity in how you get the ball to someone, but the level of interactions are many tenfold times less complex than hockey.

I say this and don't discount analytics. I actually worked with someone who went on to be one of the first serious analytics guys for the Nuggets. Heard a lot about their drafting processes. There's a lot of value in using advanced metrics. But I don't buy that they are the end-all-be-all like in baseball. They are apples and oranges sports really. Baseball doesn't have near the complexities of hockey to account for.

All of the scenarios you mention for baseball - pitches, pitchers, fly balls, are pretty easily accounted for in metrics. Baseball is a transactional game for the most part. One thing happens and there is a response. Hockey has dozens of factors happening at once with dozens of responses. So metrics can tell a good part of that story but will never tell the story as completely as they can in baseball.
 
As perspective... Crosby was 29, Malkin 30 and Letang just turned 31 when they won their second in a row. Ovi was 32, Kutnetsov was 26, Backstrom 30, Carlson was 28. Tampa guys last year... Kuch 28, Point 26, Hedman 30, Stamkos 31.

Teams don't win very often when their cores get into their 30s. You can point to some, yeah. But once the majority of the core ticks over and gets to 32-33... it's over.
Sure, Landeskog is getting up there. But we should have 3-5 more years of good MacKinnon and Rantanen. And at least 5 of Makar (more if he re-signs). And assuming health and ability to fit in his next contract, several more of Byram.
 
Sure, Landeskog is getting up there. But we should have 3-5 more years of good MacKinnon and Rantanen. And at least 5 of Makar (more if he re-signs). And assuming health and ability to fit in his next contract, several more of Byram.
Adding to this: I don't see how adding Kadri, who is already at the wrong side of the aging curve, with a monster contract is going to help this team be competitive for the next 3-5 years. Maybe this upcoming season, yeah, but I think we can find a better fit in terms of age profile, AAV, and term in this market.
 
Sure, Landeskog is getting up there. But we should have 3-5 more years of good MacKinnon and Rantanen. And at least 5 of Makar (more if he re-signs). And assuming health and ability to fit in his next contract, several more of Byram.
I’ve stated this as 5-6 years in this back and forth. There are other situations that’ll come here (contracts, cap, injuries), but purely on ages… 5-6 years is really the absolute maximum for this core. Beyond that, it’ll get near impossible unless the Avs suddenly become magic at drafting.

Adding to this: I don't see how adding Kadri, who is already at the wrong side of the aging curve, with a monster contract is going to help this team be competitive for the next 3-5 years. Maybe this upcoming season, yeah, but I think we can find a better fit in terms of age profile, AAV, and term in this market.
To get that player, you’re likely to have to give a piece of the core though. 2Cs in prime ages signed for 6m or less are worth a lot. Not against that move… but you’re looking at Byram as the key piece in one of those trades.

I think Kadri has a maximum of 3 years left in the tank as a 2C and it is more likely to be 1 or 2. His contract will be bad, but how bad is relative. IMO winning over the next 2-3 seasons should mean more than the 4th and 5th seasons and 6-8 are really screwed anyway… so f em.
 
This is the argument everyone makes when saying Advanced stats doesn't have the same place in Hockey as it does Baseball... It just isn't true though.

I really dont care to go dig up any of the studies that show this... But essentially hockey can be broken down very similar to baseball with the same static events occurring repeatedly inside of a game, and advanced stats are getting increasingly accurate at evaluating how players react to those same scenarios.

Hockey is far more similar to baseball then people realize... Again its largely in part because the advanced stat movement in hockey is about 10-15 years behind baseball. Some of the comments on "eye test" will be hilarious to look back on when we're into the 2030's.
That’s why Dubas and Chayka lit the world on fire.
 
This is the argument everyone makes when saying Advanced stats doesn't have the same place in Hockey as it does Baseball... It just isn't true though.

I really dont care to go dig up any of the studies that show this... But essentially hockey can be broken down very similar to baseball with the same static events occurring repeatedly inside of a game, and advanced stats are getting increasingly accurate at evaluating how players react to those same scenarios.

Hockey is far more similar to baseball then people realize... Again its largely in part because the advanced stat movement in hockey is about 10-15 years behind baseball. Some of the comments on "eye test" will be hilarious to look back on when we're into the 2030's.
That’s why Dubas and Chayka lit the world on fire.
Adding to this: I don't see how adding Kadri, who is already at the wrong side of the aging curve, with a monster contract is going to help this team be competitive for the next 3-5 years. Maybe this upcoming season, yeah, but I think we can find a better fit in terms of age profile, AAV, and term in this market.
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That’s why Dubas and Chayka lit the world on fire.
That's why Colorado just won the cup? You do understand Colorado has been one of the most analytically driven teams in the league for quite a while now...

Also, lets not pretend like the Leafs are some awful team. They cant get out of the 1st round but that's arguably as much about the insane pressure to play in Toronto as it is anything else. They've been a Top 5 team in the league for years now.
 
This is the argument everyone makes when saying Advanced stats doesn't have the same place in Hockey as it does Baseball... It just isn't true though.

I really dont care to go dig up any of the studies that show this... But essentially hockey can be broken down very similar to baseball with the same static events occurring repeatedly inside of a game, and advanced stats are getting increasingly accurate at evaluating how players react to those same scenarios.

Hockey is far more similar to baseball then people realize... Again its largely in part because the advanced stat movement in hockey is about 10-15 years behind baseball. Some of the comments on "eye test" will be hilarious to look back on when we're into the 2030's.
In baseball you can literally only throw the ball in a small square area if you are the pitcher, you can only run in a straight line in a diamond pattern as a runner, and you can only stand in a narrow field area as a fielder (especially now that they've done away with the shift). To get someone out on a grounder, you can only throw to one of four locations or tag. As a batter, you can only hit the ball in a 90 degree field of play to move forward. All players, for the most part, play the exact same time with the same teammates against the same competition for the majority of the game minus a few substitutions. Officiating is much more consistent, there aren't penalties for the most part, and beyond the pitcher and batter, players very rarely have one on one battles with each other (much less with more players) in play. These are super simple scenarios.

At a minimum, you have to admit that hockey is home to much more complex decision making and interactions. You have 360 degrees of area that you can move the puck, you can move the puck vertically up to few dozen feet in the air. The puck can land anywhere on the ice and except for goalies, any player can be located anywhere on the ice. There are systems of play incorporated by both teams on the ice that may determine where players are, how aggressive they are, what decisions they make, and where the other team is located. The game doesn't pause and reset for each new interaction.

Just from a pure data perspective, the number of times that you will be able to replicate an event to make it statistically significant enough to provide true information is just more limited. Baseball players have thousands of at-bats, pitches, and fielding opportunities with near identical scenarios.
 
In baseball you can literally only throw the ball in a small square area if you are the pitcher, you can only run in a straight line in a diamond pattern as a runner, and you can only stand in a narrow field area as a fielder (especially now that they've done away with the shift). To get someone out on a grounder, you can only throw to one of four locations or tag. As a batter, you can only hit the ball in a 90 degree field of play to move forward. All players, for the most part, play the exact same time with the same teammates against the same competition for the majority of the game minus a few substitutions. Officiating is much more consistent, there aren't penalties for the most part, and beyond the pitcher and batter, players very rarely have one on one battles with each other (much less with more players) in play. These are super simple scenarios.

At a minimum, you have to admit that hockey is home to much more complex decision making and interactions. You have 360 degrees of area that you can move the puck, you can move the puck vertically up to few dozen feet in the air. The puck can land anywhere on the ice and except for goalies, any player can be located anywhere on the ice. There are systems of play incorporated by both teams on the ice that may determine where players are, how aggressive they are, what decisions they make, and where the other team is located. The game doesn't pause and reset for each new interaction.

Just from a pure data perspective, the number of times that you will be able to replicate an event to make it statistically significant enough to provide true information is just more limited. Baseball players have thousands of at-bats, pitches, and fielding opportunities with near identical scenarios.
I agree, simply put MoneyPuck will never be as accurate as MoneyBall. It doesn't mean it's worthless but it's much less reliable and complete.

That being said, the bigger challenge leads to a better opportunity for teams as MoneyBall is a commodity, MoneyPuck has room for an edge created by a proprietary non-public model.
 
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Yet very few of his acquisitions really had impressive analytics. The Avs are a million times more analytics focused than the Chayka-era Arizona mess.
Analytics that the public uses and values. The analytics that teams have are different and teams can value different things. He was one of the most analytic based GMs in history and failed. That doesn’t prove that analytics are dumb, but his failure points that they can fail fail. Just like anything else.

Did you actually read the article? Because it contains a lengthy explanation.
Yeah, but I know people who worked with him.
 
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