Rumor: 2022-2023 Trade Rumors and Free Agency (Mod Warning in OP)

[Balthazar]

I’m going off my eyes first and foremost… just don’t see it there. On the Avs’ decisions… it wasn’t just Meyers, it was Sturm too and the chose to go with Compher over Newhook as well. Plus the Avs are still going to go for the Cup… that situation hasn’t really changed at all besides Newhook just getting a year older…

That last part is huge though. Let's not forget that Newhook had a bad camp last year and spent a chunk of the season in the AHL. He's still super green and nowhere near a finished product.

 

[redacted]

That last part is huge though. Let's not forget that Newhook had a bad camp last year and spent a chunk of the season in the AHL. He's still super green and nowhere near a finished product.

I don’t agree that it is huge (huge years 18-20 and incremental for 2/3 years after… from there improvements are mental and application, not physical)… but the fundamental issue is skating. Skating doesn’t typically improve at his age and with how technically clean his stride is… I don’t see a jump. I’d say the risk of it getting worse is higher. Avs like to bulk up their players, and Newhook +10 lbs will be a worse skater.

I hope to be wrong here. I hope Newhook explodes next year and makes me look dumb. It would be the best outcome. I just don’t see him as a center. The skill set is just lacking.

FTR before being labeled a hater, I think Newhook has real potential to be a great 2nd line wing with mid 50 point upside (I say that as an average… career years are higher). I’ve long thought this and when he gets the center burden off his shoulders… he’s a better player. He’ll shine if put on the wing full time in a top 6 role.

 

[expatriatedtexan]

Of course we don't know, we never know the future... there are so many unidentified astroids out there that we could all die in 3 weeks and be none the wiser of it now!

We can clearly see though that Newhook had some significant issues at center last year. To the point where the organization chose to replace him midseason with a move and then added the top college UFA who is a center. We can also see that Newhook is on the smaller end of the size spectrum at center, and that isn't a complete non-starter... but those that succeed (not always but 9 times out of 10) are typically exceptional skaters who have a knack for creating space with their feet offensively, and closing it defensively with good positioning to go along with the skating. Newhook isn't getting bigger at his age (at least in a positive way), so we can rule that out. On the second part, his skating that was always a strength in his junior and college career quickly got neutralized in the NHL. I'd love to say this is an uncommon phenomenon and Newhook will rise above, but it might actually be one of the most common things to happen to smaller centers as they progress through leagues. Time and time again these 'great' skaters have that advantage lessened in the NHL where everyone is a good skater AND where the systems are so good that it takes a whole different level to be great. I can list many players who this has happened to and this was my big concern with Newhook's transition to the NHL. I was one of the very few posters who kept claiming it would be an issue for him, to the point where it was a running joke... yet here we are with it being a clear issue.

I really don't think Newhook is a center, or at least a center to get the most value out of his game. He just doesn't check the boxes of making it work at a top 6 level. I've had this unpopular opinion for a while and the more I see, the more I think it is correct. You might get an offensively or defensively slanted (not likely both) 3C out of him, but then that begs the question... wouldn't you rather get ~10 more goals and 15-20 more points out of him as a 2nd line wing? With his skill set, I find it difficult to put him down the lineup when he has a legit chance at being a 20-25g guy consistently.

On your Jost part... the Avs would have gotten so much more value out of him if they had traded him midway through the 18-19 season. His value was still there as people hadn't been shown who he really was yet... though I think it could clearly be seen at that point. Not saying Newhook will go that route... but former A prospects don't hold that projection value forever. Newhook is less than a full season away from losing that shine and it being more about who he is as a hockey player. There is a value difference that can exist there.

I don't know how unpopular that opinion is on Newhook. It's one that I came around to during this last season as I saw the shift to wing. A couple of years ago on this team...no problem with him being here. But I think he's probably better off going to a team that is rebuilding and can actually use him in their top six. That's why I wanted to see him as the main piece of a Patrick Kane trade. He could help Chicago in their apparent rebuild, it wouldn't be a terrible spot for him to land. And let's face it, Kane pushes Lehks back to the third line and really would be a statement about our intent to repeat.

As for the bolded part...Wasn't that when the Jost for Anderson swap was secretly being discussed behind the scenes with Columbus?

 

[JLo217]

He was given until March... he just didn't wow them at all there. Not exactly a coincidence he got 10 points in his last 15/16 games of the regular season when he got pushed to wing full time.

True. Also they need to utilize him on the PP better. Dudes killer in the bumper spot or high slot.

 

[redacted]

I don't know how unpopular that opinion is on Newhook. It's one that I came around to during this last season as I saw the shift to wing. A couple of years ago on this team...no problem with him being here. But I think he's probably better off going to a team that is rebuilding and can actually use him in their top six. That's why I wanted to see him as the main piece of a Patrick Kane trade. He could help Chicago in their apparent rebuild, it wouldn't be a terrible spot for him to land. And let's face it, Kane pushes Lehks back to the third line and really would be a statement about our intent to repeat.

As for the bolded part...Wasn't that when the Jost for Anderson swap was secretly being discussed behind the scenes with Columbus?

Maybe I’m gunshy on the heat I’ve gotten from it over the years since I’ve never been much of a believer of him at center.

People say that, but I don’t know that. I know Compher has always been very well liked by Columbus and Jost has never fit the mold of centers they like (and still like). Anderson to the Avs has been a big rumor for a long time. Anderson fits a ton of what the Avs like in wings… when he cares to try.

 

[JLo217]

The more I think about it as good as Newhook may end up, I'd also move him in the right deal. If you get a 2C either on a killer contract or is cost controlled for the next while it's an easy move to extend the window.

I'm really hoping Myers, Newhook, Compher and Maltsev can find a way to progress.

 

[ANewHope]

I’m going off my eyes first and foremost… just don’t see it there. On the Avs’ decisions… it wasn’t just Meyers, it was Sturm too and the chose to go with Compher over Newhook as well. Plus the Avs are still going to go for the Cup… that situation hasn’t really changed at all besides Newhook just getting a year older…

I agree with the eye test. I think it's still early so not alot to go off but no arguments there. I don't think Meyers even counts personally. He's one of the best college UFA's. Given where the cap is any team takes him. I think Sturm plays a completely different role and Compher is a vet who the coaches trust. 90% of young players get put in the same position. Bednar didn't want a young guy learning the position during pivotal moments. There's alot of guys who are C's now that would have played wing on this roster given the circumstances.

Avs are going for the cup again for sure but I think it's a different position this year than last. No chance they let Kadri walk last year and they very well could this season. We'll see how things play out but I think there's more patience this year. Newhook being a year older with some experience is a pretty big deal. Letting him take a shot at the 2C/3C along with Meyers, Rants, or whoever we sign and than reevaluating at the deadline makes alot more sense this season than last year.

If we re-sign Kadri or make a big trade for a 2C than yeah I'll agree. Until than outside of the eye test I think it's pretty hard to argue that they view Newhook as a pure wing. As of right now it just looks like we were a a stacked stanley cup winning team that a 20/21 year old rookie couldn't crack as a C and we've built a roster with some competition at that spot headed into the season.

 

[Richard Doll]

Yeah it would certainly be ideal, but real tough to count on. Just replacing Burkie though is a bit of a tough sell though…. IMO success is at minimum pushing Lehk down the lineup. Avs have 4 wingers contracted long term… if Newhook can’t push one down, the value equation starts coming into play.

I should say replace Burkies production, but while being consistent.

Burky was very hot and cold, a player worthy of first and second line duties and a player the coaches reduced to third line or scratched.

If he plays like Burky without all the disappearing acts, that's successful.

 

[Foppa2118]

It's impossible right now for anyone to have a good gauge of what kind of player Newhook will be in the NHL.

He had a solid start to the season. Then very noticeably hit the college wall. Then had a solid finish to the season. Then played a significantly reduced role in the playoffs.

Next year will be a much better season to evaluate him in, after he hopefully gets himself in great condition in the off season, and after he learns how to manage his energy and take care of his body for an 82 game schedule.

Not only was he used to a much lighter schedule in college, his last college season was cut even shorter than that because of the pandemic. He only played a handful of games.

Jumping straight into an 82 game NHL season as a rookie after that was a very tall order. He played more hockey games last year (reg season+playoffs+AHL) than he did his previous two seasons combined. 93 last year to 74 the previous two seasons according to eliteprospect. Nearly as much as his previous three seasons at 127 games.

 

[Murzu]

Nearly forgot that Perron, Chiarot and Copp signed in Detroit. Not sure what Yzerman is doing.

Perron and Copp are solid adds who help the the team a lot.

Chiarot I don't understand.

 

[Richard88]

Ya pretty much... Plus, if he's a Winger not a Center, where does he fit in the lineup long term exactly?

We already have 5 wingers signed for the foreseeable future as is. Landy is here for 7 more years, Nuke for 8 more years, and Lehky for 5 more years. Mikko 3 years(And possibly 8 more after that), and then you've got LOC for 3 years as well.

He's above LOC on the depth charts obviously, but the other 4 guys are all ahead of him at this point, and realistically IMO the only guy he maybe jumps ahead of is Lehkonen if his offensive numbers drop back down to his career levels with us next year. If they dont, and he continues to be a 20-25G, 45-50 point player for us... With his two-way game, Newhook will have a hard time jumping over him as well.

So at that point all 4 Top 6 wingers are here for at least 3 more years. Are we really going to start paying Newhook 4-5M, or potentially even 6M+ to be a 3rd line winger for us? I dont think so, not when with almost $30M invested in wingers already going forward.

IMO this should be the make or break year for Newy with us. Give him a true, extended opportunity at Center with some quality wingers and see if he breaks out in that spot. If you give him 20 games for example at 2C with Rantanen and Lehkonen, and he puts up 15-20 points and looks good in the role, then fine maybe you really do have the internal solution to the 2C spot, and especially if he can carry that over to a full season at 2C and he puts up 55-60 points, at that point maybe we dont even need to trade for a 2C. Perhaps giving him ~6M on a 5-6 year deal is our 2C solution.

But if you give him that opportunity and he looks uncomfortable or not as effective as on the wing or whatever, at that point I think he's quality trade bait for the 2C solution. Though even then he's trade bait for a 1, maybe 2 year solution like a JT Miller or PLD or whoever... But I dont think he has enough value to be a centerpiece for a long term 2C solution either.


That's also why I love the idea of bringing in Stastny in particular on a 1 year deal. He can play 2C, 3C, and he can play on the Wing if needed as well. So you have the option to move him and Newhook around during the season to try and figure out exactly what we've got with Newhook.



My opinion is Newhook will be a good, 55-60 point Winger in the NHL in his prime years, maybe a couple career years where he scores 30G and ~70+ points but in general a high end 2nd line winger sort. For the Avs with the guys we have signed in the last couple of years, that's just not a need for us anymore and so he becomes trade bait for a center.

I also think Olausson should be trade bait as well. For a lot of those same reasons, we dont need wingers for the next 3-4 years at minimum but we really need a Center. Whatever assets we have to use to get a 2C is what they should be trying to do. Everywhere else is pretty much locked in and good to go at that point. The one thing Olausson has going for him is still 3 years of only making 900k. If he pans out at the NHL level that could be a nice cheap 3rd line winger for us for a couple of years.


*Assuming they re-sign Mackinnon at least.

Agree with a lot of that, good post.

Regarding the idea of using Newhook and/or Olausson as trade bait for a 2C, Cmac is going to have to decide whether to use them to get a 2C or to wait until 2023 and use Toews/Girard - one of which we're most likely going to have to move in 2023 (unless 2C gets filled with a low AAV caphit).

If you're going with Stastny for a year we'd probably be better off holding on to Newhook/Olausson and using one of the LHD's to fill the 2C spot in 2023. Otherwise you'll be in a position in 2023 with 2C already filled (via a Newhook/Olausson trade) where you're needing to trade Toews/Girard just to replace Newhook/Olausson (i.e. younger forwards to fill out the lineup) which seems kind of circularly redundant.

If Toews/Girard are traded for picks/prospects those prospects also wouldn't be on the same timeline as the Avs window, unless teams are willing to give up quality NHL-ready prospects still on their ELC's which seems unlikely.

That all said, it's also possible that the Avs will have to use Newhook/Olausson at the TDL for a rental 2C, and then also trade Toews/Girard in 2023 to solve 2C long-term.

Either way they're going to have to make a decision one way or another because it doesn't seem that the 2C hole is getting filled short-term or long-term without a LHD and/or Newhook/Olausson moving.

Newhook might also price himself out as a winger too if he has a breakout season, because he'd be too expensive for the 3rd line going forwards. But that's a good problem to have really. The Avs could then get max value from his ELC before cashing in on his value when he needs a raise. The decision on whether or not to do that likely needs to be taken at the TDL though, or at the latest in the 2023 off-season. So as both you and hench have said this is a bit of a make or break season for Newhook with the Avs. And actually it might be a "damned if you do, damned if you don't" situation for Newhook if he doesn't pan out as a center; because if he breaks out on the wing he'll price himself out of a 3LW role going forwards, but if he doesn't break out he'll be trade bait as the Avs cut their losses while he still had some shine.

 

[Richard88]

I should say replace Burkies production, but while being consistent.

Burky was very hot and cold, a player worthy of first and second line duties and a player the coaches reduced to third line or scratched.

If he plays like Burky without all the disappearing acts, that's successful.

A more consistent Burkie is a top line winger...

 

[tucker3434]

A more consistent Burkie is a top line winger...

Maybe he could become a more well rounded, less productive player. I think that’s realistic. Burakovsky’s issue was that his entire value was tied up in getting on the scoresheet. When he wasn’t, he was a negative impact. Newhook could provide similar value without the same production.

 

[Richard88]

Carolina just signed Bear at $2.2m x1, so they have <$1.5m in capspace with Necas still unsigned.

Unless Gardiner is spending the year on LTIR or they plan on buying him out that could indicate that Carolina are open to moving Necas for futures...

Necas on a bridge deal under $3.7m AAV would fit onto the Avs roster without needing to dump any salary. Only question would be if the Avs pro scouts believe in him (or Newhook/Meyers) as a 2C. Guessing 2023 1st would be the base of a deal, along with a prospect.

 

[CalderKing21]

Nope certainly doesn’t. He’ll likely get another run at some point. I’ve been on the ‘wrong’ side of this debate many times… I just don’t see a center in Newhook and the Avs made the supporting moves last year to show they didn’t believe in him (last year) too. Could always change, I’m just doubtful long term.

It makes sense to take a young player and push him to a easier situation to succeed. In the moment it help them flourish and you can circle back to the harder part later once they have gained confidence. I think you're reading too much into his move to winger.

 

[avsfan09]

I don't think Newhook will be a C either at this point. Obviously still very early and he could wind up there for sure. I don't think we've seen enough to know for certain but he'll need to show something this season assuming there's no moves made for a 2C. He'll have have a chance to battle it out with Compher/Meyers for 2C/3C and if he can't win that than I think it'll mean something.

I think using what the Avs did last year as a reason doesn't make sense tho. I don't take much away from that outside of what you got to see with your eyes. We were trying to win a cup. 90% of young players get pushed to the wing on our roster this season. Signing Meyers? He was rumored to be the best college UFA since Bozak. They are trying to sign him regardless of Newhook. Outside of his actual play on the ice I don't think there's much to take away from this season regarding Newhook at C. They weren't running with a 20/21 year rookie Newhook at C. Very few young players come into the league being able to handle that responsibility on a roster that goes 16-4 on the way to a cup.

Perfectly put imo. I’d also add that his production uptick likely had more to do with comfort and getting used to the NHL speed than it did with playing the wing.

I’m going off my eyes first and foremost… just don’t see it there. On the Avs’ decisions… it wasn’t just Meyers, it was Sturm too and the chose to go with Compher over Newhook as well. Plus the Avs are still going to go for the Cup… that situation hasn’t really changed at all besides Newhook just getting a year older…

Going with experience at C makes sense when competing for a cup. It doesn’t equate to them giving up on Newhook at C, just they couldn’t afford to deal with the growing pains required for him to learn it and probably felt he was too effective not to have in the lineup.

 

[AllAboutAvs]

Put me in the camp that if the Avs do not fill the 2C spot this summer than they have to give Newhook a shot at it. And I mean a very good shot at it. none of those 2 or games and then give up on the idea. The doubt of Newhook being a C or not in the NHL needs to be squashed right away. Unless we have major injury issues the Avs will not miss the playoffs so this is the perfect time to solve this question mark. Unless it is really obvious early on give him about 20 games to really get comfortable and see if he can take it and run with it. If he can't do it than use Mikko, JTC and Meyers to fill the spot until the TDL or anytime they find a great opportunity to trade for a real 2C. Even if it takes Newy a while to get comfortable at 2C a line of Lehky - Newy - Mikko will still be good enough to win a lot of the games early on.

My honest opinion on this is he is a W but I'm not 100% certain. That's why I want the Avs to eliminate that doubt one way or another.

 

[hughdreamz]

Man I wonder if Kadri regrets firing his lifetime agent for the new one he has now

 

[redacted]

It makes sense to take a young player and push him to a easier situation to succeed. In the moment it help them flourish and you can circle back to the harder part later once they have gained confidence. I think you're reading too much into his move to winger.

Then why bring in Meyers who can't play in the playoffs?

Perfectly put imo. I’d also add that his production uptick likely had more to do with comfort and getting used to the NHL speed than it did with playing the wing.


Going with experience at C makes sense when competing for a cup. It doesn’t equate to them giving up on Newhook at C, just they couldn’t afford to deal with the growing pains required for him to learn it and probably felt he was too effective not to have in the lineup.

I think people are way too quick to excuse him losing the role either due to youth or experience instead of looking at why Newhook lost the role.

 

[John Mandalorian]

I don’t agree that it is huge (huge years 18-20 and incremental for 2/3 years after… from there improvements are mental and application, not physical)… but the fundamental issue is skating. Skating doesn’t typically improve at his age and with how technically clean his stride is… I don’t see a jump. I’d say the risk of it getting worse is higher. Avs like to bulk up their players, and Newhook +10 lbs will be a worse skater.

I hope to be wrong here. I hope Newhook explodes next year and makes me look dumb. It would be the best outcome. I just don’t see him as a center. The skill set is just lacking.

FTR before being labeled a hater, I think Newhook has real potential to be a great 2nd line wing with mid 50 point upside (I say that as an average… career years are higher). I’ve long thought this and when he gets the center burden off his shoulders… he’s a better player. He’ll shine if put on the wing full time in a top 6 role.

He's not a great skater, which is strange considering he used this a lot at the junior level. He has a decent burst and can use it to good effect if he finds the right way to use it. You make him sound like Jost. He appears to be a better skater than Jost.

 

[redacted]

He's not a great skater, which is strange considering he used this a lot at the junior level. He has a decent burst and can use it to good effect if he finds the right way to use it. You make him sound like Jost. He appears to be a better skater than Jost.

He's not as bad of skater as Jost. Much better in the small areas of the ice. The same plague of size/skating combo of Jost is there, just not as bad. I'm pretty sure I started the Jost isn't going to make it as a center bandwagon.

 

[John Mandalorian]

He's not as bad of skater as Jost. Much better in the small areas of the ice. The same plague of size/skating combo of Jost is there, just not as bad. I'm pretty sure I started the Jost isn't going to make it as a center bandwagon.

I'm pretty sure you also invented the internet.

 

[Raucherhusten]

I'm pretty sure you also invented the internet.

That's pretty likely, yes!

 

[redacted]

I'm pretty sure you also invented the internet.

 

[shadow1]

Nearly forgot that Perron, Chiarot and Copp signed in Detroit. Not sure what Yzerman is doing.

Yzerman went wild this off-season but I love it.

Out	In
C Sam Gagner LW Vlad Namestikov (TDL) RW Carter Rowney D Danny DeKeyser D Olli Juolevi D Nick Leddy (TDL) D Marc Staal D Troy Stetcher (TDL) G Thomas Greiss	C Andrew Copp LW Dominik Kubalik RW David Perron D Ben Chiarot D Robert Haag D Olli Maata D Mark Pysyk (IR) G Ville Husso

Detroit was reasonably decent last year. They were 24-24-6 at the beginning of March, and that was with no Vrana for the first 56 games and terrible .891 goaltending from Greiss.

Then Fabbri tore his ACL later in March and they sold off a few players at the deadline, resulting in the bottom falling out. But now that they've bulked up this off-season (with some speculation they could go after Klingberg) and Edvinsson making his debut, I think they have a good team that should be in WC contention most of the season:

LW	C	RW
Bertuzzi	Larkin	Raymond
Vrana	Copp	Perron
Kubalik	Suter	Zadina
Erne	Rasmussen	Sundqvist
IR: Fabbri		Smith

LD	RD
Chiarot	Seider
Maatta	Hronek
Edvinsson	Lindstrom
Oesterle	IR: Pysyk
Haag	IR: Walman

G
Husso
Nedeljkovic

The other big thing is Blashill was an atrocious coach, probably worst in the NHL. Even without the player adds, Lalonde behind the bench is going to be huge for them.