Rumor: 2022-2023 Trade Rumors and Free Agency: Let’s Run it Back!

[Bender]

I don’t share that nostalgia so that’s why it’s a non-factor for me but I understand where you’re coming from. Sorry. I could care less about how Stastny ends his career (no disrespect to you intended). The only dudes I care about in that regard are EJ and Landeskog because they wanted to be here and Calvert who is also deserving.

I see your point about Stastny’s production and at a certain point in the Avs’ contention window, I can see the utility of bringing on a cup chasing vet at a favorable deal. I neither think nor hope we’re at that point yet.

I appreciate that you listed the reasons why you listed Stastny as an option though. While I don’t agree now, it may be that you’re right. Your opinion informs others. I wanted Kadri gone after the VGK series so I always try and keep that in mind when I’m certain I’m right because I might not be (absolutely no to trading Byram though).

I also wanted Kadri gone after he got himself suspended but good on the team for keeping him and believing in him and perhaps more importantly good on him for proving all doubters wrong.

As far as Byram, I agree don't trade him but I'm curious, what do you do if he says "I want the Nurse contract"?

 

[flyfysher]

I also wanted Kadri gone after he got himself suspended but good on the team for keeping him and believing in him and perhaps more importantly good on him for proving all doubters wrong.

As far as Byram, I agree don't trade him but I'm curious, what do you do if he says "I want the Nurse contract"?

Hopefully Byram doesn’t ask for that. I mean if we’re talking $8M+ for Kadri then that’s nuts.

 

[LOFIN]

Lots of smoke around Fleury to Colorado. Don’t love it based upon recent performance, but we proved a goalie doesn’t need to be superb to win in our system. Although Kuemper was superb during the season.

Let's face it, there are not many good options out there. If we lose Kuemper it's Fleury or Husso from the UFA market. Fleury would be a short term commitment with probably not super high cap hit, so it would fit the Avs perfectly.

 

[jaisen73]

I wouldn't race to extend Byram just yet. He had a very impressive playoff run but the injury history requires a wait and see, even if it ultimately costs more this time next year. I am sure his agent knows that and could play it either way, pushing for a payday now or knowing he could get massive dollars next summer if he has a full (or near full season) and produces. I really want to believe Byram's concussion issues won't be a factor but there is too much history throughout the league to not be concerned.

 

[MacKaRant]

The only UFA that really matters is Nichuskin. Losing him would be really, really tough to replace, and unless you get Forsberg somehow any alternatives would be significantly worse.

Losing Kadri has always been inevitable, and it doesn't make sense to sign him at his age.

Kuemper and Manson are 50/50 but their losses wouldn't be a huge issue given that their contracts would probably not be great at their ages. Sakic will find a decent goalie somehow, as he did with Grubauer and Kuemper.

Burakovsky would be a loss but he can be replaced internally (eg. Newhook or Olausson) or with a shrewd trade or UFA signing.

It would be great to have both Nichushkin and Lehkonen, but I think a lot of people speculated that Lehkonen would be the internal Nichushkin replacement if Nuke priced himself out of Colorado. We played three-quarters of the season with only one of them and had a lot of success, so I could see moving forward without him if the price/term gets too crazy and reallocating that money towards two middle six forwards.

 

[CalderKing21]

GMs probably figure they won’t be around to deal with the consequences and they’re probably right.

Assuming they win, they will eventually have to deal with it.

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

What I like the most about Fleury is it wont be a long term commitment and it will likely be cheaper then all other options as well. Fleury at 1 year and say $2.5M is 100x better then targeting any of the other mediocre goalies available, but having to give them 4 years and 5M+.


I dont think there's much difference between the likes of Fleury, Kuemper, Campbell, Husso, Samsonov, Varly, etc. etc.... They're all average level goalies. But Fleury should be the cheapest in terms of both cap hit and cost to acquire. I think any of them we could win another cup with, since we just did it with Kuemper who frankly was awful in the playoffs. Its not a high bar to match.


Husso is my other option simply because he's younger. I'd feel more comfortable handing out a 3-4 year deal to the 27 year old over the 30+ guys. Though he's also not nearly as proven as the other guys as well... But I think that would lend itself to a slightly cheaper contract at the same time.

 

[Gruyeriev]

Gibson's horrible numbers speak for themselves, but I think the logic is that he could go back to being elite (<2020 form) if not playing for the lowly Ducks.

I don't buy into that but I do believe he'd be much better playing behind Colorado's defense. Interesting thing about Gibson this year is that he was elite until about February (2nd in saves), at which point the wheels completely fell off:

	Record	GAA	SV%	SO
Oct-Jan	15-10-8	2.49	.922	1
Feb-Apr	3-16-3	4.32	.876	0

I agree he would be better behind a better defense but if you go back and look at the last three or four years it gets even worse.

 

[Richard88]

yeah Nuke is #1 priority. I’ve expected to lose Kadri and Bura. Manson ended up being the perfect #4 D. I think he would be great next to Girard or Byram but it depends on what he is asking for. Kuemper I could go either way but I don’t want to be left scrambling. Joe/Chris need to make that decision early and not be left waiting and then a last minute scramble again. Ideally I would like to upgrade Kuemper but I don’t see many good options available.

Yeah if I were Sakic/C-Mac I'd be inclined to offer Kuemper a contract they're comfortable with the next few days and then draw a hard deadline a few days before UFA starts. If he declines the offer and is adamant about wanting $6.5m+ then trade his UFA rights to whoever wants to give him that money to recoup some draft capital. That way you can attack July 13th head-on instead of having a repeat of last year.

I'd also be shopping Kadri's rights already now because it's pretty clear he won't be taking a huge discount to stay. If teams are willing to go $8-10m x7 with him then owning his rights to be able to offer an 8th year to keep the AAV down (and outbid other teams on an overall deal) would probably be valuable to them.

If Nichuskin walks maybe there's a world where you bring back Burakovsky at something like 5x5 if he takes that, but if talks with Nichuskin are going well and someone wants to pony up for Burakovsky's rights I wouldn't take much convincing.

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

Also I think the biggest question the Avs need to start asking themselves is.... What happens if we really do lose all of our UFAs?

I certainly hope it doesn't happen, but I think its a real possibility that all of Kadri, Nuke, Kuemper, Bura, end up leaving for big money elsewhere. Who do they target as a Nuke replacement if he does leave? Or what's the 2C plan when Kadri departs? Avs have a reasonable amount of cap space, but very few trade assets if they have to go that route.

 

[flyfysher]

Assuming they win, they will eventually have to deal with it.

Kick the can down the road syndrome.

 

[TruePowerSlave]

They definitely won the cup at the right time. Would be pretty painful going into this off-season without the cup glory.

 

[Gruyeriev]

Also I think the biggest question the Avs need to start asking themselves is.... What happens if we really do lose all of our UFAs?

I certainly hope it doesn't happen, but I think its a real possibility that all of Kadri, Nuke, Kuemper, Bura, end up leaving for big money elsewhere. Who do they target as a Nuke replacement if he does leave? Or what's the 2C plan when Kadri departs? Avs have a reasonable amount of cap space, but very few trade assets if they have to go that route.

It’s not looking good for even a Kadri replacement. The best UFA forward is Forsberg.

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

I wouldn't race to extend Byram just yet. He had a very impressive playoff run but the injury history requires a wait and see, even if it ultimately costs more this time next year. I am sure his agent knows that and could play it either way, pushing for a payday now or knowing he could get massive dollars next summer if he has a full (or near full season) and produces. I really want to believe Byram's concussion issues won't be a factor but there is too much history throughout the league to not be concerned.

Meh, I think if anything the Avs should be using the injury concern to try and get a longer term deal done this summer.


Offer Byram 5.5M x 6 years right now. $33M of guaranteed money for a kid that was worried about if he would ever play again last summer is a lot of money and secures his families future regardless of what happens. Might be hard for him to say no to that. If Bo ends up being completely healthy moving forward, you've likely got a very good contract for the next 6 years. If the concussions derail his career, you simply play the LTIR game.



Obviously you dont go and give Bo a 7x8M extension or anything crazy right now, but if you can get him for a lower $ deal while the concussion concerns are still a thing, that's absolutely something they should look at.

It’s not looking good for even a Kadri replacement. The best UFA forward is Forsberg.

Well, Forsberg is a better forward then Kadri so that would be a great replacement.... Except he's not a Center.


Trocheck is who they should be targeting in free agency. Younger then Kadri and provides similar value(Outside of Kadri's career year this year).

 

[Balthazar]

If all the UFA's walk then you trade for Gibson at full cap hit, you sign Trockeck and a 2nd line winger.

Or go hard after Forsberg if available.

 

[Richard88]

Also I think the biggest question the Avs need to start asking themselves is.... What happens if we really do lose all of our UFAs?

I certainly hope it doesn't happen, but I think its a real possibility that all of Kadri, Nuke, Kuemper, Bura, end up leaving for big money elsewhere. Who do they target as a Nuke replacement if he does leave? Or what's the 2C plan when Kadri departs? Avs have a reasonable amount of cap space, but very few trade assets if they have to go that route.

I asked myself that exact question earlier today and made an AGM.:

All the UFAs walk - Forsberg Copp Fleury - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

Create your own team. Trade, sign, recall, reassign, and buyout players as though you were your favourite teams general manager.

www.capfriendly.com

First off if everyone walks nothing really changes regarding the 2C spot. Obviously you've got to push to get a 2C, one of Trocheck or Copp ideally.

Secondly, I think if Nichuskin walks they'll first and foremost go really hard after Forsberg.

It seems like Poile and Forsberg are close (LeBrun said Poile is in the low 8's on an 8 year deal and Forsberg is in the high 8's), so it's most likely that they find common ground... But it could also be that Forsberg wants to wait and see if Colorado will have the space to sign him. Jeff Marek has said on more than one occasion that Colorado were looking at him, namely last year as Landeskog's potential replacement, and again at the deadline. There's clearly interest there.

I wonder if Sakic is able to acquire his rights to do an 8 year deal if Forsberg tells Poile that he's walking. $8.5m x8 ($68m) seems to be where the middle ground is and that wouldn't be that much higher than what Nichuskin would be getting on the open market. Alternatively if you can't get the rights to Forsberg you could offer him something like $9mx7 ($63m) which is at least in the ballpark ($5m less than $8.5mx8) and maybe close enough for Forsberg to decide to join a winner rather than going down with the ship in Nashville.

Beyond that it's options like Mikheyev, Marchment, etc which aren't going to be too appealing given what they'll be asking for. Maybe you out the 2023 1st and Newhook on the table at that point as Newhook's ELC won't have as much value to the Avs anymore if they have an ocean of capspace with no good UFA's to go after.

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

If Nichushkin leaves I think the Avs will go the trade route for his replacement.


Iafollo, Connor Brown, Alex Texier... I could see them trading for any of those guys as a Nuke replacement.


What I'd really like to see them do is kill two birds with one stone at that point, bite the bullet and pay up for Gourde. That solves the 2C spot, and gets a strong defensive replacement for what would be lost with Nuke on that front.



Getting Gourde would almost certainly cost Girard as the main piece(Unless like Newhook + 1st gets it done), so at that point you could spend cap on Forsberg to go with Gourde as well.


Lehky - Mack - Mikko
Landy - Gourde - Forsberg

 

[tucker3434]

Gibson's horrible numbers speak for themselves, but I think the logic is that he could go back to being elite (<2020 form) if not playing for the lowly Ducks.

I don't buy into that but I do believe he'd be much better playing behind Colorado's defense. Interesting thing about Gibson this year is that he was elite until about February (2nd in saves), at which point the wheels completely fell off:

	Record	GAA	SV%	SO
Oct-Jan	15-10-8	2.49	.922	1
Feb-Apr	3-16-3	4.32	.876	0

I think almost everybody would look better behind our d but Gibson was 112 out of 119 (oof Grubauer) in goals saved above expected. That should kinda adjust for quality of D.

 

[Richard88]

If Nichushkin leaves I think the Avs will go the trade route for his replacement.


Iafollo, Connor Brown, Alex Texier... I could see them trading for any of those guys as a Nuke replacement.


What I'd really like to see them do is kill two birds with one stone at that point, bite the bullet and pay up for Gourde. That solves the 2C spot, and gets a strong defensive replacement for what would be lost with Nuke on that front.



Getting Gourde would almost certainly cost Girard as the main piece(Unless like Newhook + 1st gets it done), so at that point you could spend cap on Forsberg to go with Gourde as well.


Lehky - Mack - Mikko
Landy - Gourde - Forsberg

I woke up yesterday with a vision of Hfboards thread banner that said that Sakic was interested in acquiring Iafallo. Just sayin'

 

[The Merchant]

 

[Gruyeriev]

Meh, I think if anything the Avs should be using the injury concern to try and get a longer term deal done this summer.


Offer Byram 5.5M x 6 years right now. $33M of guaranteed money for a kid that was worried about if he would ever play again last summer is a lot of money and secures his families future regardless of what happens. Might be hard for him to say no to that. If Bo ends up being completely healthy moving forward, you've likely got a very good contract for the next 6 years. If the concussions derail his career, you simply play the LTIR game.



Obviously you dont go and give Bo a 7x8M extension or anything crazy right now, but if you can get him for a lower $ deal while the concussion concerns are still a thing, that's absolutely something they should look at.



Well, Forsberg is a better forward then Kadri so that would be a great replacement.... Except he's not a Center.


Trocheck is who they should be targeting in free agency. Younger then Kadri and provides similar value(Outside of Kadri's career year this year).

Yes. I should have been more clear those are two separate statements. Wasn’t suggesting Forsberg be Kadri’s replacement. Trochek is okay…. Malkin and Bergeron are on the decline and looking for retirement contracts. I think we are better off trading for a 2C.

Looking at forwards, Forsberg is by far the best but he is looking to get paid as well. Probably should make more than Kadri. Too much for a winger IMO.

 

[LOFIN]

I think when he turned down Calgary, it was not specifically about Calgary. He just didn't want to get traded from Toronto. So Dubas came to Sakic, as Kadri didn't have the Avs on his no-move list. I don't think he would necessarily turn down Calgary this time. That said, I don't see Calgary going after him.

 

[Hornstar]

Also I think the biggest question the Avs need to start asking themselves is.... What happens if we really do lose all of our UFAs?

I certainly hope it doesn't happen, but I think its a real possibility that all of Kadri, Nuke, Kuemper, Bura, end up leaving for big money elsewhere. Who do they target as a Nuke replacement if he does leave? Or what's the 2C plan when Kadri departs? Avs have a reasonable amount of cap space, but very few trade assets if they have to go that route.

I hope sakic has Bura and his agents phone blocked. Same with DK. Rather go with flower anyway. I would hope like hell that nuke is a major priority.

 

[jaisen73]

If the combo of Burky, Nuke, and Kadri all walk (I suspect 2 out of 3 go) then swing for the fences and make a play for Forsberg. Outside of that then get 2 or 3 of Trochek, Domi (short contract), Marchment. I like the latter a lot.

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

Just built this roster on Cap Friendly really quickly.... We would have $1.6M in cap space left over to adjust for guys earning more then I have them making.... But it would fit under the 82.5M cap as constructed.


Not my favorite result since it involves losing Nichushkin, but I think it would be a team ready to win the cup again next year:

- Re-Sign Cogliano(2x950k)
- Re-Sign Lehkonen(4x4.0M)
- Re-Sign J. Johnson (1x800k)
- Sign UFA MAF(1x2.5M)
- Sign UFA Filip Forsberg(7x8.25M)
- Sign UFA Alex Edler(1x1.75M)
- Sign UFA Paul Stastny(1x2.0M)

- Trade Sam Girard + 2023 1st(Lottery Protected) to Seattle for Yanni Gourde + Carson Soucy + 2023 2nd(WPG)
- Trade Nicholas Aube-Kubel to Montreal for 2023 5th round pick

Opening Night Roster:

Landeskog - Mack - Lehkonen
Forsberg - Gourde - Rantanen
Newhook - Stastny - Compher
LOC - Meyers - Cogliano
Sedlak

Toews - Makar
Byram - Soucy
Edler - Johnson
J. Johnson/MacDermid

Fleury
Francouz


I'd hate to lose Nuke but that would be one hell of a Top 6 still, Stastny I think is still a solid player especially from a 3rd line role. Gourde replaces everything we lose in Nuke, only from the Center position now while hopefully Forsberg can replace the lost Kadri offense. Soucy brings lots of size to the Defense again, can play left or right as well.

And we bring in some new veteran guys that are still chasing that first cup and have that drive to win like Helm and Cogliano had for us this year. And still 1.6M in cap space to add at the deadline next year.


In terms of the summer of 2023 then. between EJ(6M), JTC(3.5M), Soucy(2.75M), Fleury(2.5M) Stastny(2M) Edler(1.75M) all expiring... The Avs would have 18.5M that comes off the books for raises to the core guys.