Speculation: 2022-2023 General Lightning Discussion - Part 2

[LightningStrikes]

For real the team played so much better with him back in the lineup.

Didn’t exactly help during our losing skid there though.

 

[These Are The Days]

I haven't had a good chance to see the team but once in about the last few weeks. If what's being said is accurate we need to disassemble the school bus entirely, put Paul back with Stamkos and make a new line on the fly like we did with Goodrow-Gourde-Coleman using Ace, Jeannot and probably Balcers

 

[Sky04]

Just to expand on this a bit. I saw someone compare Mackinnon current salary to Cirelli. First of all, that is absolutely stupid. Mack came off a whopping 53 point season that year, but broke out the next season into the beast he is. But for visuals sake, I will put it here. I picked Bergeron's contract after winning the cup, the next season he won his first Selke too. Ryan O'Reilly is a there, just because the constant comparison.

Player	Year	Cap Ceiling	AAV	Cap %
Anthony Cirelli	23/24	$83,500,000	$6,250,000	7.5
Mikhail Sergachev	23/24	$83,500,000	$8,500,000	10.2
Erik Cernak	23/24	$83,500,000	$5,200,000	6.2
Nathan Mackinnon	16/17	$73,000,000	$6,300,000	8.6
Patrice Bergeron	11/12	$64,300,000	$5,000,000	7.8
Ryan O'Reilly	16/17	$73,000,000	$7,500,000	10.3

The common thread, Cirelli got paid a bit over what he should have. But not by much. Maybe between $750K-$1M. He plays 2nd line shut down role. Points should always hover around 40-50 points. But his Cap % is no where near egregious. Bergeron is the perfect comparison when he came off a cup and Selke. Cirelli came off 2 cups, a SC Final, and finished 5th in Selke votes last season. Their Cap % at the respective times of signing are damn near identical. The only big difference is the term on both contracts. Bergeron signed for 3 years because the lockout was looming. Cirelli hovers around 0.5PPG his whole career, while playing an elite shutdown role. What more do you people want?

I can add more comparisons for Serge and Cernak if people want.

He's only played a shut down role once in the playoffs. Once.

For real the team played so much better with him back in the lineup.

Lol it would've been that way with anyone with a 5M caphit added to the roster after 2 months of Cole Koepke. You could've said the same thing if we missed Paul, Killorn, Hagel even Colton for 2months to start the season, it's not Cirelli is special here.

 

[CupsOverCash]

Cirelli is getting dumped on for his regular season play and rightfully so but he does step up defensively in the playoffs which can be a different game than the regular season. Maybe we pay him for the playoffs not the regular season. We have players that keep the regular season games interesting and he's not one of them. I do wish he were paid less than what he is. Flat cap sucks.

With the complaints about bringing back Palat at 5M or currently Killorn at 4M, can't wait to see how Cirelli performs at 6M!

I think palat and killorn have done more at both sides of the ice than cirelli has at 6 there's not much debate there. I do think Cirelli is a good player just not at 6m.

 

[EXTRAS]

I wonder if eyssimont could be signed to a 3 year x 850k deal

 

[JTBF81]

Since Cirelli isn't going anywhere for I'd guess at least 5 or 6 years minimum, nor is he the main problem everytime the team struggles, there's no reason to argue that point ad nauseum(there's enough stats posted on here already showing his good value to the team). Moving ahead I'd hope the lines look like this(not that they will since Coop hasn't been optimal with them much of the year really, but one can hope), especially for the playoffs:
Hagel-Point-Kuch
Killorn-Paul-Stamkos
Colton-Cirelli-Jeannot
Maroon-Ace-Perry
They could also make Colton 4C ans play Eyssimont at 3LW if that line meshed better. This configuration seems to give the team two good scoring lines, something resembling the 2A/2B line situation they had with Coleman-Gourde-Goodrow, and a 4th line that isn't completely useless and could provide a goal now and then. The defense is what it is, and no matter how the offense is configured, if Hedman can't be a strong #1 for the stretch run, then the team likely isn't going deep.

Looking ahead to next year:
Hagel-Point-Kuch
Barre-Boulet-Paul-Stamkos
Colton-Cirelli-Jeannot
Maroon-Eyssimont-Perry/ufa vet
Colton at 3 million, Jeannot at 2, Eyssimont at 900k, Perry/new guy at 1 mil, if there's room, 13th F at 925k max.
ABB seems like the best call up option from Syracuse atm, if he's given a chance in the top 6. If not, then it should be someone else as ABB will flounder if expected to be on a grinder line.

Hedman-Bogo
Sergachev-Perbix
Seeler*-Cernak
Fleury/Raddysh
*Tampa picks up Seeler for a 3rd in offseason

Vasy
Alnefelt/vet backup@850-900k
It's a tight squeeze but a model such as this gives Tampa a 22 player roster with a whopping $3,333 in cap space leftover, assuming an 83.5 cap. If they don't trade for someone like Seeler, they can roll with 21 by either not having ABB in the lineup or a 13th around 900k, and then go after a ufa dman in the 1.5-1.7 range(depending on exact #'s of the Colton, Jeannot, Eyssimont, and Perry/his replacement contracts). It's just a rough template, but it seems like a.21 or 22 player roster will work okay next year.

 

[Rschmitz]

Didn’t exactly help during our losing skid there though.

Lol it would've been that way with anyone with a 5M caphit added to the roster after 2 months of Cole Koepke. You could've said the same thing if we missed Paul, Killorn, Hagel even Colton for 2months to start the season, it's not Cirelli is special here.

No, the entire attitude and play of the team changed, it was extremely noteworthy when it happened. I don't think it was calculus was as simple as just adding a 5m piece of talent to the lineup, we became tough to play against and the rest of the team suddenly became that much more effective.

 

[Stammertime91]

Since Cirelli isn't going anywhere for I'd guess at least 5 or 6 years minimum, nor is he the main problem everytime the team struggles, there's no reason to argue that point ad nauseum(there's enough stats posted on here already showing his good value to the team). Moving ahead I'd hope the lines look like this(not that they will since Coop hasn't been optimal with them much of the year really, but one can hope), especially for the playoffs:
Hagel-Point-Kuch
Killorn-Paul-Stamkos
Colton-Cirelli-Jeannot
Maroon-Ace-Perry
They could also make Colton 4C ans play Eyssimont at 3LW if that line meshed better. This configuration seems to give the team two good scoring lines, something resembling the 2A/2B line situation they had with Coleman-Gourde-Goodrow, and a 4th line that isn't completely useless and could provide a goal now and then. The defense is what it is, and no matter how the offense is configured, if Hedman can't be a strong #1 for the stretch run, then the team likely isn't going deep.

Looking ahead to next year:
Hagel-Point-Kuch
Barre-Boulet-Paul-Stamkos
Colton-Cirelli-Jeannot
Maroon-Eyssimont-Perry/ufa vet
Colton at 3 million, Jeannot at 2, Eyssimont at 900k, Perry/new guy at 1 mil, if there's room, 13th F at 925k max.
ABB seems like the best call up option from Syracuse atm, if he's given a chance in the top 6. If not, then it should be someone else as ABB will flounder if expected to be on a grinder line.

Hedman-Bogo
Sergachev-Perbix
Seeler*-Cernak
Fleury/Raddysh
*Tampa picks up Seeler for a 3rd in offseason

Vasy
Alnefelt/vet backup@850-900k
It's a tight squeeze but a model such as this gives Tampa a 22 player roster with a whopping $3,333 in cap space leftover, assuming an 83.5 cap. If they don't trade for someone like Seeler, they can roll with 21 by either not having ABB in the lineup or a 13th around 900k, and then go after a ufa dman in the 1.5-1.7 range(depending on exact #'s of the Colton, Jeannot, Eyssimont, and Perry/his replacement contracts). It's just a rough template, but it seems like a.21 or 22 player roster will work okay next year.

You had me until you mentioned the Alex Barre-Boomerang.

Stop. Get help. I'm done with that experiment.

 

[Sky04]

Just to expand on this a bit. I saw someone compare Mackinnon current salary to Cirelli. First of all, that is absolutely stupid. Mack came off a whopping 53 point season that year, but broke out the next season into the beast he is. But for visuals sake, I will put it here. I picked Bergeron's contract after winning the cup, the next season he won his first Selke too. Ryan O'Reilly is a there, just because the constant comparison.

Player	Year	Cap Ceiling	AAV	Cap %
Anthony Cirelli	23/24	$83,500,000	$6,250,000	7.5
Mikhail Sergachev	23/24	$83,500,000	$8,500,000	10.2
Erik Cernak	23/24	$83,500,000	$5,200,000	6.2
Nathan Mackinnon	16/17	$73,000,000	$6,300,000	8.6
Patrice Bergeron	11/12	$64,300,000	$5,000,000	7.8
Ryan O'Reilly	16/17	$73,000,000	$7,500,000	10.3

The common thread, Cirelli got paid a bit over what he should have. But not by much. Maybe between $750K-$1M. He plays 2nd line shut down role. Points should always hover around 40-50 points. But his Cap % is no where near egregious. Bergeron is the perfect comparison when he came off a cup and Selke. Cirelli came off 2 cups, a SC Final, and finished 5th in Selke votes last season. Their Cap % at the respective times of signing are damn near identical. The only big difference is the term on both contracts. Bergeron signed for 3 years because the lockout was looming. Cirelli hovers around 0.5PPG his whole career, while playing an elite shutdown role. What more do you people want?

I can add more comparisons for Serge and Cernak if people want.

Well ignore that those guys are all better offensively and defensively and go with the fact that those guys are 1st line centers with a comparable cap hit percentage to our 3rd line center hence the issue.

 

[DFC]

I wonder if eyssimont could be signed to a 3 year x 850k deal

Let's hope he hits 20 posts but only scores goals when we are desperate. Then we lock him up and he's Lil Nick Paul.

WAIT! Can it be Big Dick Nick and Lil Dick Mick?

 

[EXTRAS]

Let's hope he hits 20 posts but only scores goals when we are desperate. Then we lock him up and he's Lil Nick Paul.

coincidentally lil nick paul is my rap name

 

[DFC]

coincidentally lil nick paul is my rap name

I edited a joke into the end and you might consider changing that.

 

[EXTRAS]

I edited a joke into the end and you might consider changing that.

lmao

i feel like eyssimont might not sign in tampa if he finds out thats his fan nickname

 

[DFC]

lmao

i feel like eyssimont might not sign in tampa if he finds out thats his fan nickname

Another thing we will have to keep quiet until after he signs. Much like his ability to score 20.

 

[JTBF81]

You had me until you mentioned the Alex Barre-Boomerang.

Stop. Get help. I'm done with that experiment.

He's over ppg with Syracuse, and he really hasn't had enough NHL games to say he's a bust at that level. If he's not given a chance to be on a scoring line though, he'd be wasted in Tampa and someone like Fortier or maybe Ryfors should be on the 3rd/4th line.

 

[DistantThunderRep]

Well ignore that those guys are all better offensively and defensively and go with the fact that those guys are 1st line centers with a comparable cap hit percentage to our 3rd line center hence the issue.

Lol look up their PPG when they signed. It's all comparable, but I like I expected you didn't care to look

 

[Maelmoor]

Devils fans are not happy with Palat and it's just the first year of his contract..

I love what TyJo (my fav Lightning player when he was here), Palat, McD etc have done for us, great players and fond memories!

With that said, it's as important for a GM to know when it's time to part ways as it's to sign players. Sure we miss the McD from a few years back, but I really think it was the last opportunity to ship his contract and hence the timing was right.

 

[RussianGuyovich]

palat and gourde disappeared for entire regular seasons too, so cirelli is on track to be traded and have everyone here miss him for eternity

 

[Hoek]

There was just a main board thread praising Palat so are we sure Devils fans aren't happy with him?

 

[Felonious Python]

14. Tampa Bay GM Julien BriseBois boldly backed his defence, and I’d expect nothing less. But I do think he looked pretty hard at other options. The Lightning dealt most of their draft capital in search of a third Stanley Cup in four seasons, and simply ran out of assets. It’s believed the Lightning asked about Radko Gudas; I’m not surprised he stayed a Panther instead of ending up across-state. Last weekend was a nightmare for Tampa, but write them off at your own peril.

15. I think Pittsburgh and Edmonton also had interest in Gudas. (The Oilers ultimately decided against it after Ekholm.) San Jose acquired unsigned defender Henry Thrun from Anaheim. He’s NCAA Harvard’s captain, and we’ll see if the Sharks sign him. There were rumours he’s on Tampa’s radar.

 

[Zwui21]

Glad we stayed put if the other option was to get Gudas

 

[Flat Ronnie]

Taking my daughter to her first game on Saturday. Want to show her the warm-ups. Anyone know what time they typically take warm-ups? 7p game time

 

[Stormbreaker]

Taking my daughter to her first game on Saturday. Want to show her the warm-ups. Anyone know what time they typically take warm-ups? 7p game time

6:30 would be my guess

 

[Zwui21]

Top 10 NCAA free agents to watch in the NHL

There isn’t a big standout this year, but these are 10 players that teams will be looking to target as...

www.dailyfaceoff.com

 

[Point21]

Top 10 NCAA free agents to watch in the NHL

There isn’t a big standout this year, but these are 10 players that teams will be looking to target as...

www.dailyfaceoff.com

Livingstone, Swankler, and Ford are 3 guys i would love to see us attempt to grab