Speculation: 2022-2023 General Lightning Discussion - Part 2

[JTBF81]

Perhaps a top 10 defensive forward, but only a two-time 40 point scorer, I'd say he's at least a million overpaid (Nate McKinnon currently has only a 6.3 mil cap hit, Dillon Larkin, Mark Sheifele and Brock Nelson all have a slightly lower cap hit and have much better offensive numbers - multiple 60-70 point seasons).

But that aside, the length of the contract is a big commitment for other GMs to take on. They'd have to really like Cirelli as much as the Lightning. It's one thing to say I'll take on this contract the player isn't living up to for 1-3 years, but for 8 more years? I'd expect it lower the ceiling on what we'd get back. Yzerman surprised me many times when he was able to move some of the bad contracts he inherited, but they weren't this long.

Both MacKinnon and Larkin are about to make considerably more than Cirelli. I don't think his term lowers his value in a trade at all, at least not to a GM that wants what he brings for the long term. In any case, JBB would laugh at any pitiful offer that doesn't bring back a bona-fide top 4 dman with some term.

 

[JTBF81]

I am for trading Celly, he just don't bring enough offense to earn his paycheck. We could probably trade him for a young defenseman or a pick and prospect. He is great 3rd line center but not a good 2nd lime center.

JBB would never trade him for either package imo. A likely late 1st and a prospect does nothing, at all, to help this team during it's contention window, unless there was already another trade lined up to flip them for a proven top 4 dman. Neither does a young, probably more unproven defenseman. If Cirelli was seriously shopped, since he doesn't have to be, if JBB doesn't get a proven #3/4 dman with likely a couple years of term as the main piece, easy pass. Since I believe Cirelli is, and rightfully so, viewed as a core piece moving forward, it would take quite the return for JBB to move him.

 

[Peacefool]

Looks like people forgot how bad we looked at D and hiw significantly better we were at our end when Cirelli came back from injury.

 

[Hoek]

To be fair the team seems to have forgotten how much better they could play D post Cirelli coming back and now it's a nonfactor.

 

[Sky04]

Looks like people forgot how bad we looked at D and hiw significantly better we were at our end when Cirelli came back from injury.

Yeah look how good it is now, he's making them look great! We never had a stretch this bad before Cirelli came back either, he's incredibly overrated.

 

[Stammertime91]

Yeah look how good it's looking now, he's making them look great! We never had a stretch this bad before Cirelli came back either, he's incredibly overrated.

Lol, this. But he backchecks! He's a future selke winner!

 

[LightningStrikes]

Cirelli excels as a shutdown forward in the playoffs. He has yet to show that he’s worth his contract during the regular season.

 

[Sky04]

Lol, this. But he backchecks! He's a future selke winner!

With the complaints about bringing back Palat at 5M or currently Killorn at 4M, can't wait to see how Cirelli performs at 6M!

 

[RDTBay4]

With the complaints about bringing back Palat at 5M or currently Killorn at 4M, can't wait to see how Cirelli performs at 6M!

Losing Palat sucked. Crazy we play New Jersey away twice in a row in a few weeks.

 

[JTBF81]

JBB knew he was never re-signing Palat, just as he knows he's not re-signing Killorn. Hagel, Paul, and Jeannot are their younger and cheaper replacements. Realistically, Cirelli is going nowhere, as JBB isn't going to move him for scratch off tickets that, if Tampa is lucky, may yield a player as good as Cirelli in 3 or 4 years. If Brisebois is concerned about the defense in the off season, he can move Colton for a dman or use the futures from his trade, not to mention the 3-3.5 million that would've been allotted to him, to go out and acquire one. I'd rather have a set top 9 with Point, Hagel, Kuch, Stamkos, Cirelli, Colton, Paul, Jeannot and Eyssimont, grab whatever dman for 3LD he can with the space available, and hope to keep Perry around if he wants to stay for ~1 million. If not, maybe at least one Syracuse player will get promoted and stick, and then JBB can find another 4th line vet for league min or close to round out the F group. If not, move Colton, use some of that money to keep Cole or find a better 3LD on the market, then use the extra 1.5-2 to go out and find a ufa bottom 6 F.

 

[Hoek]

Losing Palat sucked. Crazy we play New Jersey away twice in a row in a few weeks.

A nice throwback to the 2021 season I guess lol

 

[Five Alarm Fire]

Feels like Cirelli is the new Filppula around here. I give him a pass this year because of the shoulder injuries, but there are no excuses next year.

 

[Peacefool]

Yeah look how good it is now, he's making them look great! We never had a stretch this bad before Cirelli came back either, he's incredibly overrated.

Oh yeah like we never sucked at this time of the year, no matter who we iced,but when Cirelly came back it helped us to get enough points to be right now in PO spot and suck without fearing of missing PO.

 

[Sky04]

Oh yeah like we never sucked at this time of the year, no matter who we iced,but when Cirelly came back it helped us to get enough points to be right now in PO spot and suck without fearing of missing PO.

Yes Cirelli gets credit when they win but none when they lose LOL

Tampa was 12-4-2 since November until Cirelli's return, they went 7-3 the first 10 games after he got back.... so a slightly worse pace then what they'd been playing at the past month and a half but yes lets go with your narrative.

 

[Stormbreaker]

 

[DistantThunderRep]

Too many people are looking at cap hit when they should be looking at cap % as reference point for performance Vs impact on cap.

Saying a guy who signed a $6M contract 5 years ago compared to a guy who signed on for next season is vastly different.

If it wasn't for COVID, the cap would be about 7 million higher, on the low end, higher than it is now. Players are signing like the cap went up, when it hasn't really, based on the expectation the cap will have a massive jump in a couple years. It's made it look worse than it is in the short term.

 

[Flat Ronnie]

I'm liking Eyssimont and Jeannot so far. Both bring a nice element that this team was definitely missing before the TDL.

 

[Stammertime91]

I'm liking Eyssimont and Jeannot so far. Both bring a nice element that this team was definitely missing before the TDL.

Wait... it's almost like JBB did good...

 

[DistantThunderRep]

Too many people are looking at cap hit when they should be looking at cap % as reference point for performance Vs impact on cap.

Saying a guy who signed a $6M contract 5 years ago compared to a guy who signed on for next season is vastly different.

If it wasn't for COVID, the cap would be about 7 million higher, on the low end, higher than it is now. Players are signing like the cap went up, when it hasn't really, based on the expectation the cap will have a massive jump in a couple years. It's made it look worse than it is in the short term.

Just to expand on this a bit. I saw someone compare Mackinnon current salary to Cirelli. First of all, that is absolutely stupid. Mack came off a whopping 53 point season that year, but broke out the next season into the beast he is. But for visuals sake, I will put it here. I picked Bergeron's contract after winning the cup, the next season he won his first Selke too. Ryan O'Reilly is a there, just because the constant comparison.

Player	Year	Cap Ceiling	AAV	Cap %
Anthony Cirelli	23/24	$83,500,000	$6,250,000	7.5
Mikhail Sergachev	23/24	$83,500,000	$8,500,000	10.2
Erik Cernak	23/24	$83,500,000	$5,200,000	6.2
Nathan Mackinnon	16/17	$73,000,000	$6,300,000	8.6
Patrice Bergeron	11/12	$64,300,000	$5,000,000	7.8
Ryan O'Reilly	16/17	$73,000,000	$7,500,000	10.3

The common thread, Cirelli got paid a bit over what he should have. But not by much. Maybe between $750K-$1M. He plays 2nd line shut down role. Points should always hover around 40-50 points. But his Cap % is no where near egregious. Bergeron is the perfect comparison when he came off a cup and Selke. Cirelli came off 2 cups, a SC Final, and finished 5th in Selke votes last season. Their Cap % at the respective times of signing are damn near identical. The only big difference is the term on both contracts. Bergeron signed for 3 years because the lockout was looming. Cirelli hovers around 0.5PPG his whole career, while playing an elite shutdown role. What more do you people want?

I can add more comparisons for Serge and Cernak if people want.

 

[FinnLightning26]

I'm liking Eyssimont and Jeannot so far. Both bring a nice element that this team was definitely missing before the TDL.

The bottom six is definitively looking better than it did before.

 

[Flat Ronnie]

Just to expand on this a bit. I saw someone compare Mackinnon current salary to Cirelli. First of all, that is absolutely stupid. Mack came off a whopping 53 point season that year, but broke out the next season into the beast he is. But for visuals sake, I will put it here. I picked Bergeron's contract after winning the cup, the next season he won his first Selke too. Ryan O'Reilly is a there, just because the constant comparison.

Player	Year	Cap Ceiling	AAV	Cap %
Anthony Cirelli	23/24	$83,500,000	$6,250,000	7.5
Mikhail Sergachev	23/24	$83,500,000	$8,500,000	10.2
Erik Cernak	23/24	$83,500,000	$5,200,000	6.2
Nathan Mackinnon	16/17	$73,000,000	$6,300,000	8.6
Patrice Bergeron	11/12	$64,300,000	$5,000,000	7.8
Ryan O'Reilly	16/17	$73,000,000	$7,500,000	10.3

The common thread, Cirelli got paid a bit over what he should have. But not by much. Maybe between $750K-$1M. He plays 2nd line shut down role. Points should always hover around 40-50 points. But his Cap % is no where near egregious. Bergeron is the perfect comparison when he came off a cup and Selke. Cirelli came off 2 cups, a SC Final, and finished 5th in Selke votes last season. Their Cap % at the respective times of signing are damn near identical. The only big difference is the term on both contracts. Bergeron signed for 3 years because the lockout was looming. Cirelli hovers around 0.5PPG his whole career, while playing an elite shutdown role. What more do you people want?

I can add more comparisons for Serge and Cernak if people want.

Ask yourself this: what would Cirelli, Serge and Cernak all get on the open market this summer? All very talented proven playoff warriors that have won multiple cups.

I bet its way more than you'd think lol

 

[DistantThunderRep]

Ask yourself this: what would Cirelli, Serge and Cernak all get on the open market this summer? All very talented proven playoff warriors that have won multiple cups.

I bet its way more than you'd think lol

100% that's my point. People are whinging without context.

 

[Stammertime91]

Just to expand on this a bit. I saw someone compare Mackinnon current salary to Cirelli. First of all, that is absolutely stupid. Mack came off a whopping 53 point season that year, but broke out the next season into the beast he is. But for visuals sake, I will put it here. I picked Bergeron's contract after winning the cup, the next season he won his first Selke too. Ryan O'Reilly is a there, just because the constant comparison.

Player	Year	Cap Ceiling	AAV	Cap %
Anthony Cirelli	23/24	$83,500,000	$6,250,000	7.5
Mikhail Sergachev	23/24	$83,500,000	$8,500,000	10.2
Erik Cernak	23/24	$83,500,000	$5,200,000	6.2
Nathan Mackinnon	16/17	$73,000,000	$6,300,000	8.6
Patrice Bergeron	11/12	$64,300,000	$5,000,000	7.8
Ryan O'Reilly	16/17	$73,000,000	$7,500,000	10.3

The common thread, Cirelli got paid a bit over what he should have. But not by much. Maybe between $750K-$1M. He plays 2nd line shut down role. Points should always hover around 40-50 points. But his Cap % is no where near egregious. Bergeron is the perfect comparison when he came off a cup and Selke. Cirelli came off 2 cups, a SC Final, and finished 5th in Selke votes last season. Their Cap % at the respective times of signing are damn near identical. The only big difference is the term on both contracts. Bergeron signed for 3 years because the lockout was looming. Cirelli hovers around 0.5PPG his whole career, while playing an elite shutdown role. What more do you people want?

I can add more comparisons for Serge and Cernak if people want.

Moar goalz.

I mean, I'd be ok going with the 2A/2B route we used to when Gourde was here and dedicating his line to a shutdown role and having Paul with Stamkos. I'd rather try that than keep Cirelli with Stamkos. That fit is neutering the team offensively. Paul isn't a game breaking Drai lite, but he did have chemistry with Stamkos and things were clicking north south. That's my biggest complaint. I'd say he's roughly 1M overpaid but that's nothing to hold as the excuse. I wish he had more offense to his game, and he might if he was playing lower lines throughout the season. His game is suited better for it. Leaving him in the top 6 is just pissing us off collectively.

 

[Rschmitz]

shit a poster here seriously suggested we trade sergachev for parayko the other day. parayko... a career-high 35 point scorer, about to be on the wrong side of 30, with decidedly worse metrics in basically every category, and has a higher cap hit than serge currently and will only be 2 milly cheaper until 2030 when he's 37

but SERGE MAKES BONEHEADED DECISIONS and YOU CANT TEACH SIZE

You gotta tag who this is lol

 

[Rschmitz]

Looks like people forgot how bad we looked at D and hiw significantly better we were at our end when Cirelli came back from injury.

For real the team played so much better with him back in the lineup.