when he was coming up I compared his college stats with a couple guys, trying to convince myself he would be next star. And fox stats were just so much better. like not even in same ballpark.
2022-2023 Blues Multi-Purpose Thread
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Stupendous Yappi
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Adam Fox is excellent defensively. Perunovich is a defensive liability. There really is no comparison.
kimzey59
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Louie the Blue
Because it's a trap
- Jul 27, 2010
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I like ROR and prior to the past month I wanted him to stay.
Now I don’t as that era in Blues history is done with and the team needs the $$ to upgrade more elsewhere long-term.
Viva la Tank.
Now I don’t as that era in Blues history is done with and the team needs the $$ to upgrade more elsewhere long-term.
Viva la Tank.
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bleedblue1223
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Rosen is a weird player right now, his PDO is 106.6, so he inevitably will come crashing back to earth, but it's crazy how productive he's been in a limited role.
But, over the past 2 seasons, in over 700 5v5 minutes, he's 2nd in points/60 among defensemen, in the NHL. Over this period he still has a PDO of 103.9, so he's due to come back to earth. But, is he just a darling out of easy matchups and puck luck or is he one of the unicorns out there that puts it together late in his career?
I think the benefit of being out of the playoffs, we can afford to give him a stretch of games to see if he should be on the 3rd pair next season. Most likely he'll go back to being 7th/8th quality at some point, but it's still pretty remarkable.
But, over the past 2 seasons, in over 700 5v5 minutes, he's 2nd in points/60 among defensemen, in the NHL. Over this period he still has a PDO of 103.9, so he's due to come back to earth. But, is he just a darling out of easy matchups and puck luck or is he one of the unicorns out there that puts it together late in his career?
I think the benefit of being out of the playoffs, we can afford to give him a stretch of games to see if he should be on the 3rd pair next season. Most likely he'll go back to being 7th/8th quality at some point, but it's still pretty remarkable.
- Feb 12, 2008
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One thing to keep in mind regarding our longer contracts that we feel have too much term…. Remenber, this is STL, not LA, not Florida, not Colorado etc. We don’t have beaches or mountains to offer. Sometimes in the Midwest, you have to over pay to get/keep players. Not always, but a lot of times.
bleedblue1223
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Part of Army's calculation was to squeeze as much out of the previous group as possible, it's unfortunate because the bubble and COVID really hurt our chances to repeating. The team was humming, and then the league had to shutdown. As they were getting close to restarting in the bubble, a bunch of players recently had COVID and were sluggish because of it.
If we take Schenn's salary for the first 5 years of the deal, he'd have a 7.44M cap hit, the extra term was probably less to do with being a less desirable destination and trying to knock off 1M per deal, to create 4-5M in extra cap space.
bleedblue1223
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Not only would that have been worst in Blues history, if I remember correctly when I looked it up, it was the worst PK in NHL recorded history. There is a correction here, he wasn't 10th among forwards, he was 10th among skaters, he was 5th among forwards, with the main group of 4 being ROR/Acciari/Thomas/Buchnevich. Since then injuries had an impact, but the main group became Acciari/ROR/Saad/Buchnevich/Barbashev.
PocketNines
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Even if you normalized the PDO to 100 that's still got to put him at a star-level rate over that period, right?
Hopefully the team really does give him some of those minutes so we can get a better look. But we still have the same veteran top 4 defensemen all apparently healthy now, so I'm not sure the team will actually do it.
It's also interesting because this is kind of a trend with the Blues. Obviously they did give Dunn some chances higher in the lineup at times during his tenure here, but everything pointed to him being a guy who could succeed with more minutes and it's played out in Seattle. Walman didn't really have the same kind of numbers Rosen or Dunn did, and certainly not the same number of proponents trying to get him time higher in better matchups, but he was still a positive Corsi player with the Blues on a negative Corsi team in 21-22 and is apparently having success in an extended role in Detroit.
It's probably a bit of stretch to say the situations are all the same, but there are certainly enough similarities to at least make you wonder what's going on.
our coaching and deployment of our d has been generally crappy since larry robinson left. MVR needs to go.
Reality Czech
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Just goes to show that we always need to take statistics with a grain of salt. Statistics say that Rosen is an elite defenseman but the eye test and common sense say that he's a decent, yet unremarkable player who's playing the best hockey of his life right now.
Really? Show me the statistic that spits out "Elite". You can't because there is no statistical measure of eliteness. See this is the problem with all statistics, advanced or otherwise. People take them to mean something that they do not. All statistics do is measure things. They do not come to conclusions and they do not lie. People use them to jump to conclusions and to obfuscate things. Any mistake is with people's interpretation of the statistic, not the stat itself. There is such a thing as sample size, which statistics will clearly show you. If you are drawing the conclusion that Rosen is elite based on this few games, that is on you, not the statistic.
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bleedblue1223
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I'm really not even sure how you'd go about normalizing PDO to then try and figure out a sustainable points/60 number. Rosen has a 5v5 on-ice sh% of 13.91%, over 2 points higher than 2nd, with most being around 8-9. Parayko is in the back at 6.73%. On-ice sv%, he's at 93.33%, which is 2nd behind Tucker with 93.55%, and the others range from 88-90ish.
The point is, Rosen's numbers this season are simply unsustainable. He's playing like the team was last season, when Parayko, Faulk, Krug, Scandella, Mikkola, and Leddy all had on-ice shooting %'s above 10% and everyone except Rosen and Mikkola had on-ice save %'s above 91% during 5v5.
What can we take from these numbers, not a whole heck of a lot. Rosen is playing very well, but it's doubtful he's become a unicorn that magically developed into a quality NHL player at this point in his career. I'm still of the opinion that let him play while he's playing like this on the small chance that he does end up excelling in a 3rd pair role, but it's a certainty that he'll come back to earth at some point.
The point is, Rosen's numbers this season are simply unsustainable. He's playing like the team was last season, when Parayko, Faulk, Krug, Scandella, Mikkola, and Leddy all had on-ice shooting %'s above 10% and everyone except Rosen and Mikkola had on-ice save %'s above 91% during 5v5.
What can we take from these numbers, not a whole heck of a lot. Rosen is playing very well, but it's doubtful he's become a unicorn that magically developed into a quality NHL player at this point in his career. I'm still of the opinion that let him play while he's playing like this on the small chance that he does end up excelling in a 3rd pair role, but it's a certainty that he'll come back to earth at some point.
Bluesnatic27
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This entirely.
What’s funny is when people see a statistic that disagrees with their own assessment and arrogantly assume it’s the statistic at fault and not themselves. There is a statistic for everything that happens in sport. Not all statistics are relevant for one’s answers but there will be a number that one can use to support their argument and just as many to refute it. Statistics are the equivalent of words on a page.
hockey stats are particularly hard, because unlike baseball which is series of discrete events everything in hockey is intertwined. so even the best stats where they try and sort out what is attributable to which player can involve lots of assumptions.
Bluesnatic27
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That’s completely true. But that’s why you should couple as many statistics as you can to determine attribution and impact. You can’t get an accurate read on a player by using one metric much like how you can’t write a book using one sentence. The last sentence is why I don’t like GAR or WAR on their own because it’s trying to do just that. Using various different numbers can better identify the strengths and fit of the player.
I remember looking into Jay Bouwmeester’s numbers during the 2019 season. He never had stellar defensive metrics but was on the best defensive pairing in the NHL. The lazy fan would just assume that statistics are nonsense. But when I dug a bit deeper, I found that he was the best Blues player on the team at limiting high danger chances by forcing the opposition to take more mid to low danger shots. He didn’t register stellar defensive metrics because the volume of shots he was facing was higher, but those shots weren’t dangerous.
So yes, hockey has a lot more variables to take into account when discussing statistics. However, that just means that we have to put a little more work into the analysis.
bleedblue1223
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And to that point, Parayko is still the best on the team at limiting scoring chances and high-danger chances, Krug/Faulk are our worst in that area this year. I think that's the frustrating part about the surface level complaints people have of Parayko and Leddy.
We are in agreement. Stats are key part of evaluating players and testing/confirming/disproving what we think we can see, but they need to be understood in appropriate context which many fans don't do. And we also need to always remember that clubs generally have access to much better data than we do.
bleedblue1223
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Brian39
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Where did you pull this from? Were you able to input the variables into something that spit out the chart or did the author/publisher do that? I'd love to tinker with it if it is interactive.
bleedblue1223
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I just found it when I saw someone else post it. The site navigation sucks, so I'm not sure how extensive the site is.
Player Usage Charts - Hockey Abstract
Brian39
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Thanks! I tinkered around and got the exact data I was looking for.
Parayko's job is hard. I think we all know that, but I plugged in the variables to compare his deployment to the other D around the league with 900+ minutes played at 5 on 5 so far this year:
Holy cow is he getting difficult deployment. He has a lower O zone start rate than any of the 24 NHL D men with 900+ minutes at 5 on 5. The quality of the competition he's facing is 2nd best of that group. And the size of the circle shows that his total time on ice is in the top handful (4th in 5 on 5 TOI per game).
There isn't a D man in the league who is being asked to do what Parayko is asked to do.
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