2022-2023 Blues Multi-Purpose Thread

[Bobby Orrtuzzo]

Not related to the current topic but blues related, Tom Stillman was on Cam and Strick today, for those interested (interview starts at 1:21:00

 

[bleedblue1223]

I could honestly see either Tarasenko or O'Reilly being extended, and there's valid arguments for both. Keeping Tarasenko keeps one of the best offensive lines together, and that's something that isn't easily replaceable. Keeping O'Reilly keeps a Selke caliber center that still produces top 6 numbers, and that's tough to replace. I think we end up keeping 1, but I won't put money on who.

 

[Bye Bye Blueston]

I’m just not sure how well ROR ages the next 5-6 years.

That is true for anyone.

 

[Reality Czech]

I could honestly see either Tarasenko or O'Reilly being extended, and there's valid arguments for both. Keeping Tarasenko keeps one of the best offensive lines together, and that's something that isn't easily replaceable. Keeping O'Reilly keeps a Selke caliber center that still produces top 6 numbers, and that's tough to replace. I think we end up keeping 1, but I won't put money on who.

As others have said, I think what ROR brings is harder to replace. We know he takes his health and fitness seriously and he's a very proud player who I feel will continue to perform at a high level. Even if his scoring drops, I could see him in a Steen-type mentor role except I think ROR will remain top 9 caliber longer than Steener did. His influence on the team goes well beyond what happens on the ice.

While I love Vladi, it's a lot easier to find a scoring winger than a two-way center. Plus, his injury history is still somewhat of a concern going forward. If he re-injures his shoulder at any point, I fear he won't be able to bounce back as well as he did this time. And even that took well over a year to get back to 100%. The only way I could see him returning is if it's known that ROR is leaving and Tarasenko decides he would rather stay here and be a mentor to our younger guys rather than chasing top dollar as a UFA.

 

[PocketNines]

There is no reason to think ROR and Tarasenko will be less effective than Schenn, Parayko, Krug and Faulk will be into their mid-late 30s. I would rather have ROR at 7.5M than Schenn at 6.5M over that time, easy, not even close. The Blues have committed to this path already. ROR and Tarasenko as hockey talents are on a level above those other four guys, as solid as the four guys are. There is no player in the organization who will internally replace the impact of either 90 or 91 when they go, and the Blues will take a step back when they go. So if they depart after this year then the Blues have managed not only to lock themselves into getting old but they will have let the better players go.

 

[TK 421]

To me the choice between ROR and Tarasenko is a very easy one, you do everything you can to extend ROR and you let Tarasenko walk.

The Blues have invested their last three 1st round picks in wingers. When you can backfill a loss of Tarasenko with a trio of Neighbours, Bolduc and Snuggerud you're in great shape. Now subtract ROR and you're backfilling internally with.....*checks notes*... Alexandrov. Pretty stark contrast right? I don't think you need to delve any further to decide which to keep though there are additional reasons that others have mentioned like difficulty finding quality centers that can do what ROR can.

 

[PocketNines]

To me the choice between ROR and Tarasenko is a very easy one, you do everything you can to extend ROR and you let Tarasenko walk.

The Blues have invested their last three 1st round picks in wingers. When you can backfill a loss of Tarasenko with a trio of Neighbours, Bolduc and Snuggerud you're in great shape. Now subtract ROR and you're backfilling internally with.....*checks notes*... Alexandrov. Pretty stark contrast right? I don't think you need to delve any further to decide which to keep though there are additional reasons that others have mentioned like difficulty finding quality centers that can do what ROR can.

This is why the Blues window shuts closed if ROR departs, and why it's not as shut if Tarasenko departs. But Tarasenko is still the best winger on the Blues.

 

[PJJJP]

Corey Pronman of the Athletic is doing a re-draft of the 2020 and 2021 drafts. He had Bolduc going 1 spot higher and Neighbors dropped down 10 spots

 

[Bye Bye Blueston]

Corey Pronman of the Athletic is doing a re-draft of the 2020 and 2021 drafts. He had Bolduc going 1 spot higher and Neighbors dropped down 10 spots

these exercises are fairly rediculous considering how recent the draft was.

 

[bleedblue1223]

these exercises are fairly rediculous considering how recent the draft was.

Yeah, it would be more interesting to see how his personal rankings changed since the vast majority of these players are still just prospects, few of them would've done anything to dramatically shift from their draft day rankings. And this re-rank will be dramatically different if he does it again in 3-4 years.

 

[TK 421]

This is why the Blues window shuts closed if ROR departs, and why it's not as shut if Tarasenko departs. But Tarasenko is still the best winger on the Blues.

It will be nice to free up that cap space and spend it elsewhere right after we win the Cup this year.

 

[STL fan in MN]

these exercises are fairly rediculous considering how recent the draft was.

True. But it’s also true that if they can be ranked (and drafted) at age 18, then it’s fair to rank them again at age 20.

I’d personally have Neighbours a little higher but agree that he’s in the mushy middle section Pronman has him in.

Kessel, Dickinson and Lööf are also in the last tier of maybe making it, which makes sense to me. I value Kessel the most of those 3. Odd that there’s been nothing new on Dickinson’s injury for months now. Hopefully he’ll be ok.

 

[Stupendous Yappi]

It’s unclear what Tarasenko’s attitude is about staying in St Louis. Maybe he still prefers a relocation and he’s just not making a huge deal about it. My point is that it may not be just a matter of which player Armstrong prefers to keep or re-sign.

 

[bleedblue1223]

It’s unclear what Tarasenko’s attitude is about staying in St Louis. Maybe he still prefers a relocation and he’s just not making a huge deal about it. My point is that it may not be just a matter of which player Armstrong prefers to keep or re-sign.

Yeah, I still think it's 100% possible he has his mind set on walking to one of his preferred locations. Something players have talked about is a desire to see how other clubs are run, to change things up. So, while the relationship with the Blues wasn't completely nuked with his shoulder, he might be also to the point where he just wants a change, and he's just a complete professional about it after all the drama from that initial off-season.

 

[Brian39]

There is no reason to think ROR and Tarasenko will be less effective than Schenn, Parayko, Krug and Faulk will be into their mid-late 30s. I would rather have ROR at 7.5M than Schenn at 6.5M over that time, easy, not even close. The Blues have committed to this path already. ROR and Tarasenko as hockey talents are on a level above those other four guys, as solid as the four guys are. There is no player in the organization who will internally replace the impact of either 90 or 91 when they go, and the Blues will take a step back when they go. So if they depart after this year then the Blues have managed not only to lock themselves into getting old but they will have let the better players go.

We are in complete and total agreement on this topic. Schenn is only 6 months younger than ROR and he plays a style that will almost certainly cause a more abrupt/pronounced decline than ROR. I like Schenn a lot, but he was a secondary component of the Cup winner and has been worse than ROR in each of the 4 playoff appearances they've had ass a Blue.

We committed $6.5M a year for Schenn's until his age 36 season. $6.5M per year until Faulk's age 34 season. $6.5M per year until Krug's age 35 season. $6.5M per year through Parayko's age 36 season. $4M per year through Leddy's age 34 season. That's $30M in players locked up until squarely into their mid-30s.

I have absolutely zero problem committing to ROR beyond age 35. His play this year will dictate the market value of his AAV, but for me a 5 year deal that takes him through his age 36 season is about where we should be looking to go barring a steep AAV discount. I'd be happy to go another year or two if it made a significant dent in the AAV. We have flexibility to move some of the other contracts, but even in the best case scenario we have committed to having dead money 3-4 years down the road in order to chase another Cup in the short term. Keeping ROR is critical to accomplishing that.

 

[Bye Bye Blueston]

We are in complete and total agreement on this topic. Schenn is only 6 months younger than ROR and he plays a style that will almost certainly cause a more abrupt/pronounced decline than ROR. I like Schenn a lot, but he was a secondary component of the Cup winner and has been worse than ROR in each of the 4 playoff appearances they've had ass a Blue.

We committed $6.5M a year for Schenn's until his age 36 season. $6.5M per year until Faulk's age 34 season. $6.5M per year until Krug's age 35 season. $6.5M per year through Parayko's age 36 season. $4M per year through Leddy's age 34 season. That's $30M in players locked up until squarely into their mid-30s.

I have absolutely zero problem committing to ROR beyond age 35. His play this year will dictate the market value of his AAV, but for me a 5 year deal that takes him through his age 36 season is about where we should be looking to go barring a steep AAV discount. I'd be happy to go another year or two if it made a significant dent in the AAV. We have flexibility to move some of the other contracts, but even in the best case scenario we have committed to having dead money 3-4 years down the road in order to chase another Cup in the short term. Keeping ROR is critical to accomplishing that.

We are facing a retool after this season regadless. No way we can keep ROR, Tank, Barbie, and Miko without diong dramatic roster surgery elsewhere. With ROR it should be 1 season blip and then we are back once cap rises and/or kids settle into roles. Without him could be harsher.

 

[Brian39]

I can't think of any strategic advantage in Tarasenko's camp not making it very public that he wants to stay if that is in fact his desire. That would be the absolute, no doubt best way to apply pressure to Army in contract negotiations. Doing it fresh off the fanbase's anger about letting Perron walk would have been the optimal time to maximize the impact/pressure. If he wants to stay here, negotiating the extension on the heels of his team-leading 82 points in 75 games would be ideal. Army doesn't like negotiations in the media, but a well-timed 'I love it here and want to spend my entire career here' would be a pretty damn hard thing for the Blues to get angry about.

If he wanted to extend here, making that very clear to the fanbase is absolutely his best piece of leverage in negotiations. Playing up the narrative that the love/support he received from the fans changed his mind about wanting to leave puts 100% of the pressure on Army.

His agent badly misread the situation last summer, but I have a hard time believing that he would just sit on his hands and remain quiet if Tarasenko has changed his mind and now wants to stay.

 

[bleedblue1223]

I can't think of any strategic advantage in Tarasenko's camp not making it very public that he wants to stay if that is in fact his desire. That would be the absolute, no doubt best way to apply pressure to Army in contract negotiations. Doing it fresh off the fanbase's anger about letting Perron walk would have been the optimal time to maximize the impact/pressure. If he wants to stay here, negotiating the extension on the heels of his team-leading 82 points in 75 games would be ideal. Army doesn't like negotiations in the media, but a well-timed 'I love it here and want to spend my entire career here' would be a pretty damn hard thing for the Blues to get angry about.

If he wanted to extend here, making that very clear to the fanbase is absolutely his best piece of leverage in negotiations. Playing up the narrative that the love/support he received from the fans changed his mind about wanting to leave puts 100% of the pressure on Army.

His agent badly misread the situation last summer, but I have a hard time believing that he would just sit on his hands and remain quiet if Tarasenko has changed his mind and now wants to stay.

That's possible. In interviews Tarasenko has seemed very annoyed anytime that stuff gets brought up, so it's possible, he just doesn't want to deal with it publicly and he's just annoyed at how everything happened and how outsiders kept the narrative going, even into this past off-season. He's always been sort of a private type of guy, with the massive exception being that trade request where his agent and some media members went crazy with.

LeBrun just had a report with TheAthletic where we plan to meet with O'Reilly's camp in January. I imagine all sides know where they stand privately, even if they think they are in the dark, they deep down know where they are at. O'Reilly is likely the priority.

 

[tfriede2]

That's possible. In interviews Tarasenko has seemed very annoyed anytime that stuff gets brought up, so it's possible, he just doesn't want to deal with it publicly and he's just annoyed at how everything happened and how outsiders kept the narrative going, even into this past off-season. He's always been sort of a private type of guy, with the massive exception being that trade request where his agent and some media members went crazy with.

LeBrun just had a report with TheAthletic where we plan to meet with O'Reilly's camp in January. I imagine all sides know where they stand privately, even if they think they are in the dark, they deep down know where they are at. O'Reilly is likely the priority.

Here’s the thing though - IF he actually wants to stay, he could have put this all to bed by just stating so. That would end the questions from reporters. Because he hasn’t done that, I strongly suspect he has little interest in staying after this season.

 

[bleedblue1223]

Here’s the thing though - IF he actually wants to stay, he could have put this all to bed by just stating so. That would end the questions from reporters. Because he hasn’t done that, I strongly suspect he has little interest in staying after this season.

What purpose would that serve in negotiations? He could just simply tell Army behind the scenes, that he's open to staying. If he says that publicly, then he'll just get a whole set of different questions from reporters that he wouldn't want to answer. Sure, it wouldn't be much, but he's never really been a guy that likes talking about that stuff.

I still think he walks and want to, I just don't want to read much into anyone's actions or inaction.

 

[Reality Czech]

I can't think of any strategic advantage in Tarasenko's camp not making it very public that he wants to stay if that is in fact his desire. That would be the absolute, no doubt best way to apply pressure to Army in contract negotiations. Doing it fresh off the fanbase's anger about letting Perron walk would have been the optimal time to maximize the impact/pressure. If he wants to stay here, negotiating the extension on the heels of his team-leading 82 points in 75 games would be ideal. Army doesn't like negotiations in the media, but a well-timed 'I love it here and want to spend my entire career here' would be a pretty damn hard thing for the Blues to get angry about.

If he wanted to extend here, making that very clear to the fanbase is absolutely his best piece of leverage in negotiations. Playing up the narrative that the love/support he received from the fans changed his mind about wanting to leave puts 100% of the pressure on Army.

His agent badly misread the situation last summer, but I have a hard time believing that he would just sit on his hands and remain quiet if Tarasenko has changed his mind and now wants to stay.

He gone. It will be a sad day, but a star player spending 10+ years with one team doesn't happen very often. I would be shocked if he re-signs here...I haven't seen anything to make me think his position has changed. I bet he's 100% focused on this year and this group and giving it one last run with the Blues.

As a side note, I saw this little tidbit linked in Wyshynski's column on ESPN which ranks teams according to height, weight and age. I was fairly surprised the Blues have the heaviest forward group in the NHL on average (and heaviest team overall). The defense is 8th heaviest despite not being very tall, I guess because both Faulk and Krug are built like bricks and we are the 6th oldest team in the league. So while it does appear the Blues play a "smaller" and faster style than before, the team is still as big as any team in the league.

How big are the Leafs?

Measuring the heights, weights and ages for all NHL teams on opening day.

www.pensionplanpuppets.com

 

[Mike Liut]

That is true for anyone.

I was one of the few who was against re-signing Backes. I don’t have quite the same feeling with ROR, but it’s close.

 

[Mike Liut]

I was one of the few who was against re-signing Backes. I don’t have quite the same feeling with ROR, but it’s close.

I’m ok with it, as long as we don’t go past his 35 yr old season.

 

[Reality Czech]

I was one of the few who was against re-signing Backes. I don’t have quite the same feeling with ROR, but it’s close.

I would imagine that Backes had a lot more wear and tear on his body than ROR does, though. I seem to recall hoping we re-signed Backes, but was not disappointed we didn't match Boston's offer. Much like Petro, the Blues had their line and weren't willing to go above it. I'd imagine ROR is a similar case, so it will likely come down to what ROR wants to do. If he's comfortable here, would he be willing to sign a fair, but not max value contract? Or is he ready for a change of scenery and a chance to maximize his earnings? Only the Factor knows for sure...

 

[Mike Liut]

I would imagine that Backes had a lot more wear and tear on his body than ROR does, though. I seem to recall hoping we re-signed Backes, but was not disappointed we didn't match Boston's offer. Much like Petro, the Blues had their line and weren't willing to go above it. I'd imagine ROR is a similar case, so it will likely come down to what ROR wants to do. If he's comfortable here, would he be willing to sign a fair, but not max value contract? Or is he ready for a change of scenery and a chance to maximize his earnings? Only the Factor knows for sure...

I’m fine with a 4-5 yr deal. He’s still a beast. I just hope they cut his minutes down by about 4-5 per game.