Prospect Info: 2021 NHL Draft Thread

[Johno]

Let me ask you guy this though . If the only elite/franchise player left in the draft is a goalie , would you not take him ? Think of the trade value not the guys position .

Looking at goalie trade values of late, I’m not sold that that would be a wise course of action. Usually drafting BPA is the smart move, but that being a goalie, not so sure.

 

[Zrhutch]

Yeah, I dunno if I buy this. You’ve got at least 6 more years of Oettinger being under team control, unless he starts shitting the bed. Would be shocked if they got impatient and first rounded another goalie. Go BPA.

 

[eartotheground]

goalies are voodoo. so hard to predict if someone will pan out. but our org depth is gross. can't rely on bish or dobby. which leaves us with otter.. who looked decent, and i have high hopes for, but after him we have... um.. nothing certain.

 

[FirstRowUpperDeck]

How teams should acquire their goalies? (long) | HFBoards - NHL Message Board and Forum for National Hockey League (mandatory.com)

For those interested in the subject of drafting goalies, I saw this article in the Analytics section. Not sure exactly what to take away from it, but they aren't as against drafting a goalie in the first round as some here. Like all first rounders, they can bust or be great. When they do turn out well, the good news is your most important position is settled for 10 years.

They also advocate drafting goalies often, in the quantity can make quality mode, but most of the best are still drafted in rounds 1 or 2.

Back ups are typically acquired via UFA.

 

[FirstRowUpperDeck]

Interesting that most starters are first rounders, progressing downward in rounds 2, 3, etc. The dip in production in late second round goalies might suggest those who want to draft goalies may "reach" a bit to get one.

 

[MrHeiskanen]

 

[WhoahNow]

 

[David Castillo]

Lysell is fire. Reminds me Nils Hoglander: a player who is so obviously good, but falls because Reasons. And no, I'm not saying that with the benefit of hindsight.

 

[catters078]

Lysell will go top 10.

I think Dallas best chance to get one of those dynamic wingers is if wallstedt goes top 13.

One name thats growing on me, being mocked around the 18 to 25 range, Oscar Olausson winger from Sweden. Great size and smooth skater.

Performed well in the SHL against the men this year.

Was a goal per game in the U20 so played with men and was able to score well.

Not sure if hes worth pick 14, but i do think Dallas should entertain trading down if one if those top 12-13 skaters all go in order and were in 1a tier of players to choose from.

I mentioned in a diff thread id live Dallas to trade down to pick 22 range, add a 2nd and maybe a 4th, then draft a player like Olausson.


Oskar Olausson at eliteprospects.com

 

[Zapp]

I don’t think he’ll fall to us but who knows with this draft.

Would definitely be happy with that pick

Just re-posting this sentiment.


Im leaning towards top 10 for Lysell as well

 

[Captain Awesome]

How teams should acquire their goalies? (long) | HFBoards - NHL Message Board and Forum for National Hockey League (mandatory.com)

For those interested in the subject of drafting goalies, I saw this article in the Analytics section. Not sure exactly what to take away from it, but they aren't as against drafting a goalie in the first round as some here. Like all first rounders, they can bust or be great. When they do turn out well, the good news is your most important position is settled for 10 years.

They also advocate drafting goalies often, in the quantity can make quality mode, but most of the best are still drafted in rounds 1 or 2.

Back ups are typically acquired via UFA.

I just don't think the goalie is the most important position in hockey. I think the #1C is, followed by the #1D, then maybe the goalie. I also don't like them being drafted in the first round because they're so volatile. It's especially notable when the Stars got both Kari Lehtonen and Ben Bishop for a bag of pucks. Both have big flaws, but so did Marty Turco, and he was drafted. I think it would be weird to be impatient with Oettinger, in my mind he's at least 2 years ahead of schedule. I've also mentioned this in other threads before, but except for the absolutely elite goalies, so many starters in this league have absolutely terrible years out of nowhere, and I think it's too risky to tie up big draft assets and big money into goalies in general.

Go look up the top 10 points leaders at forward this year in the NHL, then do the same for d-men, then look up top 10 sv% for goalies. I know this is by no means a perfect measure, but look at where those top 10 at each position are drafted. You can use that as a proxy for how predictable drafting the most effective NHLers is. There are 6 goalies taken outside the 1st round in the top 10 for sv%, 1 forward in points, 4 defensemen in points. I'd rather take a projected top 6 nhl forward than an elite goalie, because I don't really trust that scouts are very good at evaluating goalies in general, but they're much better at predicting forwards. I am generally against drafting goalies in the 1st round altogether, but I'd consider it much more palatable in the mid 20's than in the mid teens.

 

[MrHeiskanen]

3. Brennan Othmann - Wing - Flint Firebirds
I have made my affinity towards Othmann no secret on social media. This is my kind of winger. I think his shot is a major weapon and can even be developed further. He has that touch and the hands to use a one timer when working that half wall area on the powerplay not unlike Steve Stamkos or Alex Ovechkin. However, Othmann also has an excellent wrist shot, which he disguises well and releases quickly. Othmann is also a physical player and someone who prides himself on being difficult to match up against. He is, by very definition, a power winger. Additionally, Othmann projects as a capable two-way player who can play in any situation. As I mentioned with Jack Quinn last year, potential top six goal scorers who do not have to have their zone starts and minutes sheltered are difficult to find. Perhaps the area that has grown the most in Othmann's game this year is his playmaking ability. This was extremely noticeable at the U18's. I don't think I realized that he had that kind of vision with the puck and it has really added another layer to his offensive approach. Opponents will have to respect his ability to make passes and this should open up more ice for him to find scoring chances in the future. The area of Othmann's game that does seem to be most criticized is his skating. He's never going to be an elite NHL mover, but I think the concerns are overblown. It is obvious that he has worked hard on improving his explosiveness and his ability to build speed (much like Mason McTavish). This was something that I really looked closely at in his U18 appearances and not once did I notice him behind the play or unable to find space because of his feet. I can't remember who I saw compare Othmann to Brendan Morrow, but that is a very fitting comparison and it represents the kind of upside I see in him.
4. Francesco Pinelli - Center - Kitchener Rangers
You would be hard pressed to find a more complete forward this year than Pinelli. He competes hard in all three zones, but also is extremely intelligent, both in his positioning and anticipation. I think his attention to detail, especially in the defensive end, was especially apparent at the U18's this year. As an offensive player, he is equal parts goal scorer and playmaker, showing an ability to play with pace or slow the game down depending on what the situation calls for. I really like how he takes care of the puck in the offensive end and is willing to work to make plays, never taking short cuts. He will take a hit to hold on to the puck long enough to open up a passing lane and is almost always precise in his feeds. His shot is heavy, especially his wrist shot, and I do believe that he projects as a goal scorer at the next level too. In a lot of ways, I see former Rangers standout Mike Richards in Pinelli. The issue of course, is how much can Pinelli's skating improve? The fantastic Josh Mallory did a breakdown of Pinelli's skating for us at McKeen's Hockey and what he found is that Pinelli's top speed is actually strong and it allows him to push pace when he has the runway. However, he lacks that explosiveness and dynamic ability to alter direction at full speed, making him a very linear (North/South) attacker. However, Josh believes that Pinelli's deficiencies are actually very correctable (working to add strength to his lower body and limiting upper body movement). I think this assessment is bang on and it is why I would not hesitate to use a mid to late first on Pinelli. At best, you have a top six center who can play in all situations. At worst, you probably have a solid third line center who can anchor your penalty kill with the right adjustments to his stride.


OHL Prospects: My Final Top 50 OHL Players for the 2021 NHL Entry Draft - Part 4: 10-1

 

[Satan]

Stay woke: 1A/1B tandems are becoming more and more common in the NHL. Could be a way to keep your goalie contract values down too. Food for thought.

 

[Zapp]

Stay woke: 1A/1B tandems are becoming more and more common in the NHL. Could be a way to keep your goalie contract values down too. Food for thought.

Agreed. Seems to be a necessity unless you have a true franchise 1G (Vasi, Price, etc)

 

[Hinterland]

3. Brennan Othmann - Wing - Flint Firebirds
I have made my affinity towards Othmann no secret on social media. This is my kind of winger. I think his shot is a major weapon and can even be developed further. He has that touch and the hands to use a one timer when working that half wall area on the powerplay not unlike Steve Stamkos or Alex Ovechkin. However, Othmann also has an excellent wrist shot, which he disguises well and releases quickly. Othmann is also a physical player and someone who prides himself on being difficult to match up against. He is, by very definition, a power winger. Additionally, Othmann projects as a capable two-way player who can play in any situation. As I mentioned with Jack Quinn last year, potential top six goal scorers who do not have to have their zone starts and minutes sheltered are difficult to find. Perhaps the area that has grown the most in Othmann's game this year is his playmaking ability. This was extremely noticeable at the U18's. I don't think I realized that he had that kind of vision with the puck and it has really added another layer to his offensive approach. Opponents will have to respect his ability to make passes and this should open up more ice for him to find scoring chances in the future. The area of Othmann's game that does seem to be most criticized is his skating. He's never going to be an elite NHL mover, but I think the concerns are overblown. It is obvious that he has worked hard on improving his explosiveness and his ability to build speed (much like Mason McTavish). This was something that I really looked closely at in his U18 appearances and not once did I notice him behind the play or unable to find space because of his feet. I can't remember who I saw compare Othmann to Brendan Morrow, but that is a very fitting comparison and it represents the kind of upside I see in him.
4. Francesco Pinelli - Center - Kitchener Rangers
You would be hard pressed to find a more complete forward this year than Pinelli. He competes hard in all three zones, but also is extremely intelligent, both in his positioning and anticipation. I think his attention to detail, especially in the defensive end, was especially apparent at the U18's this year. As an offensive player, he is equal parts goal scorer and playmaker, showing an ability to play with pace or slow the game down depending on what the situation calls for. I really like how he takes care of the puck in the offensive end and is willing to work to make plays, never taking short cuts. He will take a hit to hold on to the puck long enough to open up a passing lane and is almost always precise in his feeds. His shot is heavy, especially his wrist shot, and I do believe that he projects as a goal scorer at the next level too. In a lot of ways, I see former Rangers standout Mike Richards in Pinelli. The issue of course, is how much can Pinelli's skating improve? The fantastic Josh Mallory did a breakdown of Pinelli's skating for us at McKeen's Hockey and what he found is that Pinelli's top speed is actually strong and it allows him to push pace when he has the runway. However, he lacks that explosiveness and dynamic ability to alter direction at full speed, making him a very linear (North/South) attacker. However, Josh believes that Pinelli's deficiencies are actually very correctable (working to add strength to his lower body and limiting upper body movement). I think this assessment is bang on and it is why I would not hesitate to use a mid to late first on Pinelli. At best, you have a top six center who can play in all situations. At worst, you probably have a solid third line center who can anchor your penalty kill with the right adjustments to his stride.


OHL Prospects: My Final Top 50 OHL Players for the 2021 NHL Entry Draft - Part 4: 10-1

I've said it before...but Othmann is also a Stars kind of player. I'm still pretty sure they're gonna pick him if available. If he's gonna be available...that I'm not 100% sure anymore. Likely will be though.

 

[MrHeiskanen]

Othmann is a Stars pick 3 years ago 100%, but is he with their new draft formula, that I am not 100% sure.

 

[WhoahNow]

Stay woke: 1A/1B tandems are becoming more and more common in the NHL. Could be a way to keep your goalie contract values down too. Food for thought.

Honestly if Wallstedt is still available by the time Dallas picks then its a steal and I'm totally fine with the Stars drafting him.

 

[BfantZ]

Stay woke: 1A/1B tandems are becoming more and more common in the NHL. Could be a way to keep your goalie contract values down too. Food for thought.

Nill is watching the playoffs right now and realizes that having the best goalie in the playoffs would be nice .

 

[Ghost of Kyiv]

Disclaimer: Obviously, I’m an idiot and have no business making statements on guys I’ve seen play only 1-7 times (thanks to the U18s and the shift-by-shifts of Devils in the Details). I just want to have a receipt to look back on a few years from now for my own amusement.

Power
Eklund
Hughes
Berniers

Clarke
Johnson
McTavish
Edvinsson
Guenther
**Wallstedt**

Lysell
Sillinger
Lucius
Lambos
Ceulemans
Svechkov
Coronato

Chibrikov
Othmann
**Cossa**
Pinelli
Rosen
Raty

I like having tiers within rankings, guys can be tough to separate even in ideal circumstances. Prospects play all over the world against drastically different quality of competitions in very diverse roles, and this is before even mentioning covid. If someone wants to place Svechkov over Lucius or Guenther over Clarke, who am I to argue.

Added asterisk to the goalies. I think you should only ever consider taking a goalie when all the high end skaters are off the board, hence why I placed Wallstedt at the end of my 2nd tier. I wouldn’t take one due to Oettinger but I think goalies should be drafted in the first round in the right circumstances.

First tier are guys I’m betting on to be really, really good players. Second tier are great prospects in their own right but start to have a few more reasons for concern; still, I'd be beyond stoked to draft anyone of those guys. Third tier are the guys I’m realistically hoping for (assuming clean bill of health in Lambos case). Fourth tier are guys I think would be worth a shot a little later, but would consider a reach at 14.

 

[WhoahNow]

For me there is a clear top 10 (no specific order):
F: Berniers, Guenther, McTavish, Eklund, Johnson
D: Power, Hughes, Clarke, Edvinsson
G: Wallstedt

If anyone of those guys are available Id be happy with that. After those 10 I have no clue

 

[Zapp]

For me there is a clear top 10 (no specific order):
F: Berniers, Guenther, McTavish, Eklund, Johnson
D: Power, Hughes, Clarke, Edvinsson
G: Wallstedt

If anyone of those guys are available Id be happy with that. After those 10 I have no clue

Lucius > McTavish

Chaz has a better shot (if not the best in the draft) and moves his feet more in the o-zone to generate offense. His offensive IQ is off the charts

 

[WhoahNow]

Lucius > McTavish

Chaz has a better shot (if not the best in the draft) and moves his feet more in the o-zone to generate offense. His offensive IQ is off the charts

Thats good to know, i actually havent seen anything about Lucius so he seems like would be another solid pick. Seems like as long as they dont go off the board they should be able to snag a skilled player

 

[Zapp]

Thats good to know, i actually havent seen anything about Lucius so he seems like would be another solid pick. Seems like as long as they dont go off the board they should be able to snag a skilled player

NTDP talent is deep in this draft. Even Pastujov should be a late 1st

 

[WhoahNow]

Lysell & Stankoven are my #1/2 for Dallas to draft at #14 unless one of the top top players fall for some reason

 

[catters078]

Lysell & Stankoven are my #1/2 for Dallas to draft at #14 unless one of the top top players fall for some reason

Oscar Olausson for me.

Will likely be there at 14 (mocked anywbere from 18 to 25), some scouts rank him top 12.

Skilled winger with good size, smooth skater.