31 games isn't the halfway point, but now that we have a week off it feels like an appropriate time to make the "what have we learned so far" posts. I don't have time to deep dive on the entire team right now, so I'm just going to focus on the forwards for now. I had a ton of optimism about the forward group coming into the year and was arguing that this was a top 5-10 forward group in the league. My expectations have incredibly been exceeded.
Coming in to the season, I felt that we had 8 guys who were clearly top 9 players and I thought that the following breakdown was a fair prediction of the floor that we could reasonably expect from each of them:
Above-average top 6 players: ROR, Perron, Buch
Other top 6 players: Schenn
Middle 6 players: Thomas, Kyrou, Saad, Tarasenko
We had major competition for the final spot in the top 9 and very good bottom 6 depth with Barby, Sunny, Bozak, Kostin, Neal, Neighbours, Mac and Brown. I think it is a reasonable statement that our offense could be very good with these guys being no better than bottom 6 guys who could occasionally be adequate passengers to a top 6 line.
Fast forward to today and we have 4+ guys who have wildly outplayed these floors and are either hitting or exceeding what we thought was best case scenario.
Barby: He isn't the driver of his line, but he has looked like the guy I thought he'd become when we drafted him. He's 3rd on the team in scoring and leads the team in hits. He's on pace for 66 points (with 45 of them coming at even strength). I don't think that he is going to hit those numbers, but I'm sold that he has finally made the jump to being a legitimate middle 6 guy (who can be an adequate passenger on a top 6 line).
Thomas: His 20 assists are tied for 20th in the NHL and he's missed 7 games. He's played at a 75 point pace and the underlying numbers are decent. Health is the issue, but his on-ice play was that of a legitimate #2 center.
Kyrou: He's playing at a 76 point pace and has been a genuine game breaker. He's the fastest guy on the ice way more games than not. I think Berube is handling him perfectly. He hit a wall last season and his biggest asset is his speed. I'd rather see 16 minutes of him motoring at 100% than 19 minutes where he conserves. You can't play 19 minutes in this league without some energy conservation and I think his current usage sets him up for in-game success while minimizing the chance that he hits a wall.
Tarasenko: He is the teams leading goal scorer and he's tied for the point lead (Buch has 2 fewer games played though). His release isn't quite what it used to be, but everything else is back. If he plays 80+ games this year, I think he hits 70 points for the first time since 2016/17. I don't think he ever hits 40 goals again, but he looks to be a 25-30 goal, 65-75 point player who has a chance of hitting 35 goals. We have 51 games left and he needs 13 more goals and 23 more assists to hit the low end of those numbers. He has 12 goals and 17 assists through 31 games. He's going to be a 25 goal, 65 point guy this year even with pretty substantial regression. The defense isn't there for me to say he's a no doubt top liner, but he's a no doubt top 6 guy again.
Then we have a couple guys who are as-advertised or mildly exceeding expectations.
Buch: This is who I thought we were getting. I was incredibly high on him and he has been exactly what I expected. But I think he is exceeding a lot of expectations from other people. He is tied for the team lead in points, he kills penalties, he has great underlying metrics and his +14 leads the team. He wasn't a product of Zibanejad. He's a stud and this trade was robbery. He drives the Russian line and looks good with whoever he plays with. He's the best winger on a team full of good wingers. $5.8M for 3 more years after this one. Getting him for Blais and a 2nd then locking him in for 4 years at $5.8M was a franchise altering move.
Saad: As advertised. He scores goals with a combination of a good shot and a willingness to drive the net. He's not going to drive any given line, but he's going to get you 20+ goals while being deployed in a defensive role. I'm very comfortable with him as a middle 6 guy.
Perron: He's been streaky and struggled for a stretch. But that's not uncommon for guys who rely on their shot and he's still got 18 points in 20 games. That's a 73 point pace. Does it look like he massively benefits from ROR? Yup. But I don't think ROR can turn just anyone into a 73 point guy. The concussion is worrisome, but he's been a top line player. He's producing almost on par with Tarasenko and has substantially better underlying metrics and less favorable usage.
Not meeting expectations:
ROR: I have a hard time putting him here because he is still playing like a top 6 center and my eye test tells me that his energy level wasn't at 100% as a result of COVID. He's got 9 points in his last 11 games and I think his defensive game is starting to round back into form. I don't have long-term concerns with him. He's back to handling the minutes he used to handle and looks more like his old self. I have to put him in this category since he is only on pace for 54 points. But I'm not worried about him. He's got one of the best work ethics in the NHL and he is still in his very early 30s (turns 31 in February). Permanent COVID damage is the only thing that I was worried about and his recent play and minutes tell me that the chance of this is negligible.
Schenn: He hasn't been good enough. To his credit, he does a lot of things well that prevent him from being a liability. He's physical, he's willing to fight, and he is overall decent off the puck. I understand why he is well liked and respected because you can always tell that he cares a ton and is willing to do the hard/painful things to make an impact when he can't find the net. But we need him to find the net more. He makes too much to be a sub-50 point guy. He's on pace for 17 goals and 43 points. It's not good enough and he may have permanently lost a job as a center on this team.
All in all, the forward group has been great. 31 games in, and I'm comfortable adjusting my floors for the remaining 51 games + playoffs as follows:
Above average top 6 players: ROR, Perron, Buch
Other top 6 players: Thomas, Kyrou, Tarasenko
Middle 6 players: Schenn, Saad, Barby
That's awesome and factors in some expected regression from a few guys. Not many teams can say that their forward group is better than expected when the #1 and #2 centers on opening night are both performing below expectations. That's a "put you season on life support" blow to most teams, but we've watched the expected middle 6 portion of the lineup fully cover for them. Even better, I've made it this far without mentioning Oskar Sundqvist. Once again, we have the luxury of making him the best 4th liner in the league when we're healthy. Logan Brown is looking like an actual NHL player, Bozak is still an NHL player and we've got a number of other AHL guys who just demonstrated that they can play a short-term bottom 6 role just fine in the NHL.
This team is 7th in the NHL in goals per game and we are down to just 2 forwards who have played every game. Every forward but 3 has missed at least 4 games. I hedged earlier in the year by calling this forward group top 5-10, but I'm more confident after watching them for 31 games. This is a top 5 forward group.
