Prospect Info: 2021 2nd Rd Pick (#57 OA) - Matthew Knies (LW) - Tri-City (USHL)

[ULF_55]

Will he bring a Wendel impact?
Can't drop gloves in NCAA, but on the on play behind the net he might have wrung the Bell.

 

[mistaclick]

No, I don't think he's one to fight... might have to learn to though if he's going to continue to throw his weight around like last night at the next level

 

[Sypher04]

We could certainly use his power forward style and shot in our lineup. Especially for the next few years at ELC cost. Excited to see how he does

 

[Frostitute]

Very impressed with the clips ive seen of this kid. Are the online games paid only? Is there still an opportunity to watch him play in the NCAA this year?

 

[Burnie97]

If he's anything like a Clark but bigger then uh yeah... I'm all for it.

 

[Sypher04]

Nick Robertson is in some real danger of being leap frogged by Knies at the NHL level and soon.

I feel for the kid. His development has really stalled due in part to Covid (like a lot of players) but also the injuries he’s piled up too.

 

[The Podium]

Nick Robertson is in some real danger of being leap frogged by Knies at the NHL level and soon.

I feel for the kid. His development has really stalled due in part to Covid (like a lot of players) but also the injuries he’s piled up too.

I can’t imagine Mikheyev, Kerfoot and possibly Kase being here next season. I bet Robertson and Knies take 2 of those 3 spots.

 

[zeke]

Nick Robertson is in some real danger of being leap frogged by Knies at the NHL level and soon.

I feel for the kid. His development has really stalled due in part to Covid (like a lot of players) but also the injuries he’s piled up too.

Maybe, maybe not, but if so that would be as meaningless as "Liljegren is being leapfrogged by Sandin!" was.

 

[Sypher04]

I can’t imagine Mikheyev, Kerfoot and possibly Kase being here next season. I bet Robertson and Knies take 2 of those 3 spots.

Maybe. I’m not as convinced necessarily as we sit here today

 

[Sypher04]

Maybe, maybe not, but if so that would be as meaningless as "Liljegren is being leapfrogged by Sandin!" was.

Well, hypothetically if we only end up with only one LW open for them it’s not meaningless, but I get what you’re saying. I still like both guys. Nick just really needs to be left be to get in games, a lots of ice time, to allow him to get back on track

 

[JSn0w93]

This is the best prospect we've had since Matthews/Marner.

 

[Stephen]

Nick Robertson is in some real danger of being leap frogged by Knies at the NHL level and soon.

I feel for the kid. His development has really stalled due in part to Covid (like a lot of players) but also the injuries he’s piled up too.

It's easy to see how Knies might be more NHL projectable than Robertson. Knies could be like our Drake Batherson or a poor man's Matthews, but Robertson's kind of a unique package of skills I'm not sure there's a clear recipe for. He'll need to find his own path.

 

[Shak19]

looks like a Brady Tkachuk clone

 

[leafsfan2point0]

If Knies is a higher rated prospect then Sandin, Liljegren, Robertson, Niemela etc. that’s very high praise.

His skill set is much needed for our team, hopefully he’s able to get in a few games this season.

 

[Morgs]

This is the best prospect we've had since Matthews/Marner.

And to think, I was afraid we were going to have unrealistic opinions on him. Glad that's not happening.

He's having a great season guys and I get this fanbase is obsessed with guys who can hit and score, but please... His production isn't elite, he has weaknesses (tunnel vision, trying to do too much, etc), and he's trending towards being a very good top-6 F. Let's not ruin him if he doesn't immediately translate or doesn't become Matthews/Marner/Nylander good.

 

[Stephen]

The relative success that second/third round picks like Knies, Durzi, Robertson, Hirvonen and Niemela does raise a bit of an uncomfortable philosophical question though.

With so many second and third round picks flushed out to make the Giordano, Ritchie/Lyubushkin, Rittich, etc. deadline rental projects possible, it seems like these second round picks out are actually extremely valuable and will create a sizeable gap in the prospects pipeline in the next few years. Leafs will need to keep winning those UFA bets and balance out the necessary rental upgrades. Not an easy task.

 

[BertCorbeau]

And to think, I was afraid we were going to have unrealistic opinions on him. Glad that's not happening.

He's having a great season guys and I get this fanbase is obsessed with guys who can hit and score, but please... His production isn't elite, he has weaknesses (tunnel vision, trying to do too much, etc), and he's trending towards being a very good top-6 F. Let's not ruin him if he doesn't immediately translate or doesn't become Matthews/Marner/Nylander good.

Very much so this. He has great potential but let's not think he'll step in and make that huge of an impact right away. Even with his physicality, that may not be as impactful at the NHL level right away. As he gets stronger and matures, sure. But right now he's still just a kid.

We also know that some power forwards can take time to develop. So he could just be a third liner to start and that's ok.

I'd temper expectations that you hope that Knies can come into a depth role and bring some tenacity while holding his own physically, causing disruption on the forecheck.

 

[Knies iT]

If he's anything like a Clark but bigger then uh yeah... I'm all for it.

A bigger Wendel Clark?

This seems reasonable.

 

[Morgs]

The relative success that second/third round picks like Knies, Durzi, Robertson, Hirvonen and Niemela does raise a bit of an uncomfortable philosophical question though.

With so many second and third round picks flushed out to make the Giordano, Ritchie/Lyubushkin, Rittich, etc. deadline rental projects possible, it seems like these second round picks out are actually extremely valuable and will create a sizeable gap in the prospects pipeline in the next few years. Leafs will need to keep winning those UFA bets and balance out the necessary rental upgrades. Not an easy task.

To be honest with the way Dubas has been finding potential gems with virtually every pick, I'm not overly worried about him spending non-1sts on a contending team. I'm even happy with Spending 1sts if he doesn't do it for a guy like Foligno.

 

[Martin Skoula]

The relative success that second/third round picks like Knies, Durzi, Robertson, Hirvonen and Niemela does raise a bit of an uncomfortable philosophical question though.

With so many second and third round picks flushed out to make the Giordano, Ritchie/Lyubushkin, Rittich, etc. deadline rental projects possible, it seems like these second round picks out are actually extremely valuable and will create a sizeable gap in the prospects pipeline in the next few years. Leafs will need to keep winning those UFA bets and balance out the necessary rental upgrades. Not an easy task.

We have a pretty deep reserve other than at C already though, the picks we make now are probably 3 years away given how much competition is going to be in front of them on the Marlies and in the Leafs bottom lines/pairs.

 

[Stephen]

To be honest with the way Dubas has been finding potential gems with virtually every pick, I'm not overly worried about him spending non-1sts on a contending team. I'm even happy with Spending 1sts if he doesn't do it for a guy like Foligno.

Cost of business for sure, but the better we draft I guess the corollary is those picks actually are extremely productive in Leafs hands.

 

[Atomos2]

The relative success that second/third round picks like Knies, Durzi, Robertson, Hirvonen and Niemela does raise a bit of an uncomfortable philosophical question though.

With so many second and third round picks flushed out to make the Giordano, Ritchie/Lyubushkin, Rittich, etc. deadline rental projects possible, it seems like these second round picks out are actually extremely valuable and will create a sizeable gap in the prospects pipeline in the next few years. Leafs will need to keep winning those UFA bets and balance out the necessary rental upgrades. Not an easy task.

We still have our 1st. And don't forget Dubas' specialty: trading down to pick up more picks. There are ways to get around any issue.

 

[Mickey Marner]

I don't think he's anything like Clark, probably more like Drew Stafford. Good size, nice mitts, reasonably physical. More of a modern powerforward than the throwback.

 

[Morgs]

Cost of business for sure, but the better we draft I guess the corollary is those picks actually are extremely productive in Leafs hands.

Yeah its interesting. I tried to find the thread recently but Bader did a study looking at value of pick vs how much value a team extracts from that pick (based on % chance of being a NHLer on draft day) and the Leafs in the past ~5 years were right at the top with teams like LA, CGY, CAR, etc.

The picks in their hands are likely more valuable overall than in a trade, but the issue also becomes why did that player drop to the Leafs and whether that player will have similar value in a trade a year or two removed, despite them being more valuable to the Leafs. Some guys like Knies likely have more value league wide than a typical 2nd or a guy like Robertson despite being ~1 year apart in age, Robertson being currently a better prospect, and Robertson having ridiculous numbers at the pro level. Would anyone believe if we tried to trade Robby today, we'd get more than a late 1st/early 2nd/similar prospect? Probably not? Id assume we could get a mid-1st for Knies though despite being currently an inferior prospect. Its likely impossible to actually quantify, but my assumption is if you're attempting to extract value from a pick its likely a wash in the first ~60 picks assuming you pick well. If you can find guys like Abruzzese, Holmberg, or Tverberg late in the draft though they should be obscenely more valuable than the pick they were taken at.

 

[supermann_98]