Prospect Info: 2021 2nd Rd Pick (#57 OA) - Matthew Knies (LW) - Tri-City (USHL)

[supermann_98]

Jeez, we could use some of that

He gives me the Jamie Benn vibes, exactly what we need on this team

 

[OVO16]

Man gives me a serious Jamie Benn vibes

 

[Stephen]

Yeah its interesting. I tried to find the thread recently but Bader did a study looking at value of pick vs how much value a team extracts from that pick (based on % chance of being a NHLer on draft day) and the Leafs in the past ~5 years were right at the top with teams like LA, CGY, CAR, etc.

The picks in their hands are likely more valuable overall than in a trade, but the issue also becomes why did that player drop to the Leafs and whether that player will have similar value in a trade a year or two removed, despite them being more valuable to the Leafs. Some guys like Knies likely have more value league wide than a typical 2nd or a guy like Robertson despite being ~1 year apart in age, Robertson being currently a better prospect, and Robertson having ridiculous numbers at the pro level. Would anyone believe if we tried to trade Robby today, we'd get more than a late 1st/early 2nd/similar prospect? Probably not? Id assume we could get a mid-1st for Knies though despite being currently an inferior prospect. Its likely impossible to actually quantify, but my assumption is if you're attempting to extract value from a pick its likely a wash in the first ~60 picks assuming you pick well. If you can find guys like Abruzzese, Holmberg, or Tverberg late in the draft though they should be obscenely more valuable than the pick they were taken at.

I suppose the 2020, 2021 and maybe 2022 drafts will be impacted by a lot of the pandemic hockey and stalled development/paused leagues, etc. which is great if you take a chance on a player amidst all the confusion as it looks like we did with Knies.

It will also come down to a strategy of high volume drafting, which a lot of the next generation of tank teams are employing vs the knowledge economy of prospect evaluation. If the Leafs have the edge in scouting by volume maybe that means instead of making a lot of bets they'll have to rely on making smarter bets.

Geopolitics aside, the Russian leagues will also be a bit of a Wild West in the years to come. Who knows what the fog of war will look like there but I'm guessing teams will have differing access to player evaluation and drafting Russians will be more of a wild card.

 

[crump]

What's our window for contending or even sniffing contending with our Core? At least 3-4 years? As long as you are drafting 7-8 players by that 4th year you can go along way with drafting players like Knies, Niemela, Robertson, Amirov in the mid 1st or 2 rounds if your scouting is good. You end up trading Demott's, to give them a chance with other teams. At some point you are full at each position for a few years, then when you are on he downward spiral again, stock up (Tank).

Because we are playing them tonight, Look at the Habs draft in the first round 10 years since 2012: ..3 top ten picks the rest are mid to late rounders. Of course we were lucky to pick Mtthews but we have surrounded him with players who were developed properly.

2012 Galchenyuk 3
2013 Michael McCarron 25
2014 Nikita Scherbak 26
2015 Noah Juulsen 26
2016 Mikhail Sergachev 9
2017 Ryan Poehling 25
2018 Jesperi Kotkaniemi 3
2019 Cole Caufield 15
2020 Kaiden Guhle 16
2021 Logan Mailloux 31

Jury is still out on Caufield on down, but even good players like Sergachev were traded in bad trades. They drafted Romanov in the 2nd round. in 2018
Leafs on the other hand: 5 top 10 picks

2012 -Morgan Rielly 5
2013 -Frederik Gauthier 21
2014- William Nylander 8
2015- Mitch Marner 4
2016- Auston Matthews 1
2017- Timothy Liljegren 17
2018- Rasmus Sandin 29
2019- no first (Nick Robertson in 2nd) 53
2020 Rodion Amirov 15
2021 -no first Matthew Knies in 2nd 57

Burke and Nonis traded most of our 2nd's away, it wasn't until Shanahan and Dubas started drafting that they were paying off.

HM: players in round 2 who made it to the NHL'
Dermott (34)
Grundstrom (57)
Sean Durzi

 

[zeke]

What's our window for contending or even sniffing contending with our Core?

10yrs at least.

 

[Knies iT]

To be honest with the way Dubas has been finding potential gems with virtually every pick, I'm not overly worried about him spending non-1sts on a contending team. I'm even happy with Spending 1sts if he doesn't do it for a guy like Foligno.

That just makes me want to see him draft in the 1st more though.

Sandin was a slam dunk. Amirov we can't really evaluate right now.

He's essentially shown he can draft middle six profiles in the late 2nd round range and get bonkers progression from them (Robertson, Niemela, Knies, Durzi, Hirvonen tbd). Now imagine if those players had 1st round polish/high-end skillset at 17.

 

[Morgs]

That just makes me want to see him draft in the 1st more though.

Sandin was a slam dunk. Amirov we can't really evaluate right now.

He's essentially shown he can draft middle six profiles in the late 2nd round range and get bonkers progression from them (Robertson, Niemela, Knies, Durzi, Hirvonen tbd). Now imagine if those players had 1st round polish/high-end skillset at 17.

Me too. Especially with this draft, and guys like Ohgren, Mateychuk, and Trikozov potentially available late in the 1st I'd LOVE to see what we can do development-wise with those guys. Grabbing another prospect in the Niemela, Robertson, Knies tier would be great for a contending team.

But Sandin was absolutely not a slam dunk. They likely should have gone Veleno, and he might even be as good a choice today. Sandin's development between d0 and d1 was MASSIVE. Especially playing with the Marlies I think the development team deserves most of the credit for how that pick looks like a slam dunk today.

 

[Menzinger]

And to think, I was afraid we were going to have unrealistic opinions on him. Glad that's not happening.

He's having a great season guys and I get this fanbase is obsessed with guys who can hit and score, but please... His production isn't elite, he has weaknesses (tunnel vision, trying to do too much, etc), and he's trending towards being a very good top-6 F. Let's not ruin him if he doesn't immediately translate or doesn't become Matthews/Marner/Nylander good.

He's probably my favorite prospect in the Leafs system but he does have more development work to do. Folks should be cautious about penciling him into the top 9nod the playoff roster. Hell it's not even a guarantee he even gets an NHL contract yet (not that he's not worth it but Dubas'/player may want him in college another season)

 

[Leaf Rocket]

He's probably my favorite prospect in the Leafs system but he does have more development work to do. Folks should be cautious about penciling him into the top 9nod the playoff roster. Hell it's not even a guarantee he even gets an NHL contract yet (not that he's not worth it but Dubas'/player may want him in college another season)

I am high on him because I like his style of game and man there have been so many players of this ilk maybe not as skilled but that offered a similar skill set that the leafs just haven't been able to produce. Even if he is not playing, if he sticks with the big club and soaks up the experience and all the other facets of the game, I think it'll be tremendous for his development.

I still remember Brad Ross...

 

[JSn0w93]

And to think, I was afraid we were going to have unrealistic opinions on him. Glad that's not happening.

He's having a great season guys and I get this fanbase is obsessed with guys who can hit and score, but please... His production isn't elite, he has weaknesses (tunnel vision, trying to do too much, etc), and he's trending towards being a very good top-6 F. Let's not ruin him if he doesn't immediately translate or doesn't become Matthews/Marner/Nylander good.

Not unrealistic at all. This is a pro style player, we haven’t had a top ten pick since 2016 so it’s not like that’s putting him over elite prospects. Saying he’s a better prospect than Liljegren, Sandin, Robertson etc. isn’t unreasonable or unrealistic in the least. I’m sure many scouts would put him there as well. I like the other guys we’ve had/have as well, but Knies is going to be a very good pro.

 

[leafsfan2point0]

The media really seems to be forcing this “maybe Knies will have hurt feelings” about the rumours with Chicago.

It’s pretty obvious the leafs have no interest in trading a potential stud for a rental.

I hate the “Everyone hates us mentality” But between the DoPS, media, refs, and fans of other teams it’s pretty annoying not gunna lie.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

The media really seems to be forcing this “maybe Knies will have hurt feelings” about the rumours with Chicago.

It’s pretty obvious the leafs have no interest in trading a potential stud for a rental.

I hate the “Everyone hates us mentality” But between the DoPS, media, refs, and fans of other teams it’s pretty annoying not gunna lie.

I do too, but it is not like there is strong evidence suggesting that the theory is plausible. More evidence than you will get from the typical "whining fan" from other franchises.

 

[IrishInOntario]

Man gives me a serious Jamie Benn vibes

Interesting suggestion. That would be fantastic.

The guy I've always thought about when I watch Knies play is Shane Doan. One my favorite, under appreciated power forwards of his generation.

 

[Contenderorpretender]

Interesting suggestion. That would be fantastic.

The guy I've always thought about when I watch Knies play is Shane Doan. One my favorite, under appreciated power forwards of his generation.

He reminds me of a hopefully more consistent josh anderson.

 

[Deebo]

The media really seems to be forcing this “maybe Knies will have hurt feelings” about the rumours with Chicago.

It’s pretty obvious the leafs have no interest in trading a potential stud for a rental.

I hate the “Everyone hates us mentality” But between the DoPS, media, refs, and fans of other teams it’s pretty annoying not gunna lie.

Yeah, how would Chicago asking for him and Toronto saying "no way" hurt his feelings?

I don't think the people who say dumb things like this actually believe what they say.

 

[D00bis]

thankfully Elliot Friedman saved the day and confirmed that the leafs said no to Chicago’s ask of Matthew’s knies to be apart of a deal. Real g shit

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Yeah, how would Chicago asking for him and Toronto saying "no way" hurt his feelings?

I don't think the people who say dumb things like this actually believe what they say.

They need viewers and drama to justify their overpriced existence.

 

[Legion34]

The media really seems to be forcing this “maybe Knies will have hurt feelings” about the rumours with Chicago.

It’s pretty obvious the leafs have no interest in trading a potential stud for a rental.

I hate the “Everyone hates us mentality” But between the DoPS, media, refs, and fans of other teams it’s pretty annoying not gunna lie.

I think the issue that people are missing is that the reason dubas was so pissed was that he is trying to sign knies.

Another teams GM openly leaking that they want him “might” affect his ability to sign. He might decide to sit in school for 2 years and go ufa
I’m not saying he will. But expressing interest in another teams player is tampering

 

[thinkblue]

Knies with a nice goal

 

[Jimmy Firecracker]

 

[Menzinger]

While I'm usually skeptical of claims that certain players are more "clutch" than others, Knies does seem like a guy whose able to get things done during big games.

 

[Knies iT]

Knies injures a Michigan player with a wrister. His physicality is obviously tantalizing but the amount of heat behind his shot is scary.

5 goals in his last 5GP.

 

[Jimmy Firecracker]

 

[Burnie97]

He's really looking like the exact guy we need on the wing. Looking forward to seeing him in some games.

I don't know how much of an impact he can make right away at the NHL level but he's a big kid so that'll help.

 

[Knies iT]

Secondary assist. 1+1.

He's been a handful in the bumper all year. Will give the Leafs another option there outside of Tavares.

edit: didn't get the apple but was instrumental on the 2-0 goal.