Rumor: 2021-22 Trade Rumors and FA Part V: To Giroux or not to Giroux

[Spleenless Wonder21]

His shot% in the playoffs was ridiculously high at 36.8%. Remember him whiffing on a slap-shot and it sliding straight through Fleury... the guy had such great puck luck for a few games

Sometimes it’s better to be lucky than good. This is more along the lines of what they’re gonna miss from Saad come April:

 

[Foppa2118]

Think it's worth remembering that Saad never really clicked with Kadri or Burakovsky on the 2nd line, so much so that the Nichuskin-Jost-Donskoi line (which was 1st in the league in xGF%/xGA%) had to be broken up so Saad could play with Nichuskin and Jost. Jost and Saad found some chemistry late in the season but Saad generally didn't seem to click in that 2LW role he was envisaged to fill, even if the points were there for him. That might have been a big reason why he wasn't brought back at $4.5m, as you can't be paying $4.5m to a guy who's going to be playing ~14 minutes a night on your 3rd line as he did last season. His 22.1 shot% (36.8% in the playoffs) was also something of a red flag.

View attachment 506732

Some charts for your reference:

View attachment 506731

What do you mean? Saad clicked great with Kadri and Burakovsky. That was a very good line. They were just trying to balance out the scoring, and didn't want to break up Naz and Burky.

And why are we saying he's underperforming? He's on pace for 30 goals and the same 50 points he gets every year. And he's coming off a stretch where he had 10 points in 9 games.

Nuke has replaced him very well though. At his age, with his better defense, and better forechecking, he'd be the better signing if he comes in around the same price, and can continue producing around the same 20+ goals and 40-50 points.

 

[hockeyfish]

Clearly no need to see more when Sherwood is obviously their guy.

 

[Polite HKYDiscussion]

How do we fell about adding Patrick Laine?

 

[Balthazar]

How do we fell about adding Patrick Laine?

No cap space

 

[myperbixhurts]

No cap space

Laine makes less than Giroux

 

[Freaky Styley]

I think the one team that scares me in the West is the Blues. Vegas slightly too if they can get circumvent the cap rules. Binnington can be lights out, they are super deep and O'Reilly & co. have the ability to really be a thorn in the side of the big line. They've lost Petro but their D corps is no slouch, but that's definitely where we would have the advantage.

 

[S E P H]

How has Barron's defense been developing in the AHL? I recall watching preseason games where he had some issues with puck-watching, positioning around the net, and also gap control (which I found surprising considering what a smoother skater he is). I keep flipping on Barron vs Helleson as Barron has the higher ceiling but Helleson would probably have more of an immediate impact on the roster and a better fit next to Girard.

I am not sure if Barron has the higher ceiling anymore, not because he's a bad prospect, but because of how much Helleson has developed at BC. Remember, Helleson at his time with the generational USNTDP squad, he was used as a good-skating shutdown defender with a ridiculous first pass. Those attributes were good enough to get him to the NHL alone as a legitimate top sixty pick, however, what's improve is that he found some untapped offensive potential. Of course some of his points come from the PP and he probably won't get to see that ice in the NHL, but the biggest difference between the two and why I side with Helleson is the cerebral play. I suggest that his IQ for the game, especially in the defensive zone and defending the rush is a level or two higher than Barron's.

Barron has had an interesting development time because he did lose majority of his draft year due to a fluke injury, then when he came back, Halifax just started a rebuild and he loses another season from COVID. From those issues, you can say that he's definitely behind in the development curve to where he could be now if he was healthy. It's a double-edged sword because if he played the full LHJMQ during his draft year, there is a decent chance he would've been drafted higher. As you mentioned, he's a very good skater for his size and that should help him if he gets in bad position or pinches when he shouldn't. I do think he's a bit limited in thinking the game which you exposed with puck-watching, positioning without the puck, and that could lead him to more mistakes than other defenders around his talent. He should make up for it when it comes to his decisions with the puck, which I think is the best part of his game. Defence, he's quite vanilla and I think he's going to stay as a pretty vanilla player, but enough talent to be a mid-pairing defender even if he might have some learning pains to go through. I didn't mind his game when he got some NHL action this season, he should be a sound defender in the long run.

 

[Balthazar]

Laine makes less than Giroux

You're not thinking about trading for Laine as a pure rental are you?

He'd cost an arm and a leg to acquire and then you have to re-up him at core player salary.

 

[myperbixhurts]

You're not thinking about trading for Laine as a pure rental are you?

He'd cost an arm and a leg to acquire and then you have to re-up him at core player salary.

Oh no, I would not trade for Laine, was just responding to the no cap space comment. He does make less than Giroux right now but you're right, you'd have to give up alot more to get him and can't resign him.

 

[Cypher]

I think the one team that scares me in the West is the Blues. Vegas slightly too if they can get circumvent the cap rules. Binnington can be lights out, they are super deep and O'Reilly & co. have the ability to really be a thorn in the side of the big line. They've lost Petro but their D corps is no slouch, but that's definitely where we would have the advantage.

Nah, Kadri has Binnington's number and can throw him off easily.

 

[The Kingslayer]

Sometimes it’s better to be lucky than good. This is more along the lines of what they’re gonna miss from Saad come April:

Yah. Saad had a good regular season and a great playoffs. this is why i want giroux or Pavelski. Both guys turn it up in the post season. The Avs need more of those.

 

[Foppa2118]

Yah. Saad had a good regular season and a great playoffs. this is why i want giroux or Pavelski. Both guys turn it up in the post season. The Avs need more of those.

I'm thinking Newy and LOC might be those kind of guys hopefully. But it would be good to add one or two that have proven it before.

It's tricky because I think guys like Landy, Makar, Nate, Mikko, and Naz can all be great playoff players, but their regular seasons are so good it can disguise it a little bit.

But I think the 3rd line is where they need to add these kind of players the most or get that kind of contribution from someone like Newhook.

 

[Richard88]

What do you mean? Saad clicked great with Kadri and Burakovsky. That was a very good line. They were just trying to balance out the scoring, and didn't want to break up Naz and Burky.

And why are we saying he's underperforming? He's on pace for 30 goals and the same 50 points he gets every year. And he's coming off a stretch where he had 10 points in 9 games.

Nuke has replaced him very well though. At his age, with his better defense, and better forechecking, he'd be the better signing if he comes in around the same price, and can continue producing around the same 20+ goals and 40-50 points.

I recall that the 2nd line of Saad-Kadri-Burakovsky had long stretches where they weren't producing, and there was accordingly plenty of discussion on here about that in gameday threads. That isn't to say that they didn't have their moments, because they did, and some of the inconsistency was down to Kadri under-performing, but ultimately Bednar clearly saw fit to reduce Saad's minutes and get him off Kadri and Burakovsky's line. See the TOI chart below for reference, where it seems that Saad's role kept diminishing over time in the regular season.

As for the reasons for that, I disagree that the aim was to balance scoring. Donskoi was doing great next to Nichuskin and Jost (again, that line was 1st in the league in expected goals for/against), so if the Saad-Kadri-Burakovsky line had also been as functional as you're saying there would have been no reason whatsoever to break up either line, but Bednar did.

For the record I didn't say that Saad was or is under-performing. He clearly didn't given that he paced for ~45 points last year, and is pacing ~50 points this year. He was undoubtedly helped by an unsustainable shooting % last year though (22.1% in the regular season and 36.8% in the playoffs). In my eyes when reflecting back I see a player who: didn't find great chemistry on our 2nd line; who's coach reduced his minutes/role; and who had a crazy high shot% in a contract year, all of which played a role in why Sakic didn't even try to re-sign him even at a seemingly good caphit.

Now with all that said, would I prefer if he was on this team at $4.5m instead of Compher at $3.5m, yes I would. His ability to score dirty goals and play a dependable two-way game would have been a nice fit on the 3rd line next to Newhook this year. But in a vacuum paying $4.5m for a guy to play on your 3rd line wouldn't have been very wise, especially given that he likely would have seen a reduction in production in the same role when his shot% returned to normal.

 

[Richard88]

How do we fell about adding Patrick Laine?

1. Jarmo would want a young NHL player back for him, i.e. Newhook or Byram, which is a no-go.

2. Avs can't afford another top 6 forward on big money beyond 2023.

3. It isn't wise to spend a huge chunk of your cap on wingers as the Avs would be doing by having ~$24m committed to Landeskog ($7m), Rantanen ($9.25m), and Laine (~$8m).

4. To get the most out of Laine you'd want him on the left wall on the PP but then you risk upsetting Mackinnon.

 

[Richard88]

I think the one team that scares me in the West is the Blues. Vegas slightly too if they can get circumvent the cap rules. Binnington can be lights out, they are super deep and O'Reilly & co. have the ability to really be a thorn in the side of the big line. They've lost Petro but their D corps is no slouch, but that's definitely where we would have the advantage.

We just swept them 6 months ago, they shouldn't be a concern.

The only teams that are a real threat in the west are Vegas; the Wild (a deep, well-rounded, and well-coached team); and to a lesser extent Calgary if you catch them/Markstrom at the wrong time.

 

[GoNordiquesGo]

Saad did great for us and he contributed to our success. I'm sure we would be happy if he was on our team this year. The problem and reason why he isn't is the length of the contract he wanted. No the $$, nor his contribution. There is no point saying Sakic should have signd him/traded Compher to make room for him unless you thnk it would have been a good idea to give him the same length St-Louis gave him. I would have liked him on this team this year, and mayb enext year, but I am glad we didn't give him that contract.

 

[Richard88]

What are people's thoughts on DeBrusk?

He probably isn't the type you want at the deadline to put you over the top (i.e. not a PK'er or faceoff guy, nor a reliable top 6 forward like Giroux), but with a view towards the offseason we'll likely need to replace Burakovsky and we'll likely have ~$5m to spend on a top 6 forward for one year in 2022/23 before money needs to go to Mackinnon/Byram/Newhook in 2023.

Given his $4.41m QO DeBrusk will probably be relatively cheap to acquire, so maybe you roll the dice with him as a cheap-to-acquire one-year reclamation in spite of his $4.41m QO. He'll still be an RFA in 2023 after a one-year deal in 2022 so if he does well you'd have the option to extending him, or to trade him for something of value.

Landeskog -- Mackinnon -- Rantanen
DeBrusk ------ Newhook --- Nichuskin

 

[Murzu]

Pavelski here yet?

 

[TruePowerSlave]

Pavelski here yet?

Dallas has a pretty decent chance of making the playoffs, if they keep this up its unlikely they will sell anything

 

[Ararana]

Still to early to be too worried but my early pick is Dallas ends up in that final wildcard spot to make a nightmare matchup for the Avs in the first round.

 

[Hasbro]

The results of the mock I was in. Just ignore that Kulak thing:

Draft:
3/95 Marek Hejduk, RW, USA NTDP (USHL)
5/159 Brennan Ali, C, Avon Old Farms (HS-CT)
5/160 Pavel Kamko, LHD, Cherepovets (MHL)
6/191 Alexander Smolin, G, Magnitogorsk, (MHL)
7/223 David Hejduk, RHD, Wenatchee (BCHL)

 

[Richard88]

Still to early to be too worried but my early pick is Dallas ends up in that final wildcard spot to make a nightmare matchup for the Avs in the first round.

Personally I don't think we'd have much of an issue dealing with them this time around, assuming that we aren't crippled with injuries again. It would actually be nice to face them again and set things straight to start to build some momentum early.

 

[Bill Peckerskull]

 

[jabubenice]

1. Jarmo would want a young NHL player back for him, i.e. Newhook or Byram, which is a no-go.

2. Avs can't afford another top 6 forward on big money beyond 2023.

3. It isn't wise to spend a huge chunk of your cap on wingers as the Avs would be doing by having ~$24m committed to Landeskog ($7m), Rantanen ($9.25m), and Laine (~$8m).

4. To get the most out of Laine you'd want him on the left wall on the PP but then you risk upsetting Mackinnon.

and we all know how important nate's feelings are