Rumor: 2021-22 Trade Rumors and FA Part V: To Giroux or not to Giroux

[Richard88]

Saad is already underperforming his contract according to The Athletic's model ($4.5m contract vs $4.0 market value for his production), and it's only year 1 of the contract. And there are 4 more years to go on it after this one. I think it will age poorly.

I think it's telling that the Avs didn't even reach out to his camp before free agency this past off-season. If the leadership group in the dressing room saw him as a major asset, I think that information gets up to management and they at least try to make an offer.

Think it's worth remembering that Saad never really clicked with Kadri or Burakovsky on the 2nd line, so much so that the Nichuskin-Jost-Donskoi line (which was 1st in the league in xGF%/xGA%) had to be broken up so Saad could play with Nichuskin and Jost. Jost and Saad found some chemistry late in the season but Saad generally didn't seem to click in that 2LW role he was envisaged to fill, even if the points were there for him. That might have been a big reason why he wasn't brought back at $4.5m, as you can't be paying $4.5m to a guy who's going to be playing ~14 minutes a night on your 3rd line as he did last season. His 22.1 shot% (36.8% in the playoffs) was also something of a red flag.

Some charts for your reference:

 

[Balthazar]

Do people here still want Mike Hoffman?



Low effort, no defense, selfish as f*** but can score goals. 2 more years at 4.5M.

 

[Avaholic29]

Do people here still want Mike Hoffman?



Low effort, no defense, selfish as f*** but can score goals. 2 more years at 4.5M.

Absolutely not

 

[Avsboy]

Do people here still want Mike Hoffman?



Low effort, no defense, selfish as f*** but can score goals. 2 more years at 4.5M.

Not really the Sakic type

 

[the_fan]

Avs have enough players who can one time pucks on PP, dont need Hoffman. That's pretty much all he does

 

[Richard88]

The player cards for Jost and Compher are pretty interesting. Compher is actually outperforming his contract this year which is somewhat surprising. Based on this (and nothing else) it's clear who Sakic should be looking to move first in a trade (i.e. Jost).

Compher is also winning 50.65% of his face-offs this year, compared to Jost at 41.13%, so if you're looking to strengthen on face-offs then again Jost is the one to move.

Looking at scoring rates at 5v5 also... Compher's points/60 at 5v5 is pretty unimpressive at under 1 point per hour of ice time. At least his goals/60 of 0.64 is solid though.

 

[the_fan]

If Avs do trade for Giroux and give up a Jost or JTC along with Barron and a 1st, the main pieces are gonna be that 1st and Barron. JTC or Jost is gonna be a throw in

 

[PAZ]

The player cards for Jost and Compher are pretty interesting. Compher is actually outperforming his contract this year which is somewhat surprising. Based on this (and nothing else) it's clear who Sakic should be looking to move first in a trade (i.e. Jost).

Compher is also winning 50.65% of his face-offs this year, compared to Jost at 41.13%, so if you're looking to strengthen on face-offs then again Jost is the one to move.

I put less value into these type of stats considering it doesn't really account for the team he's playing on. Compher gets undeserved favorable deployment (i.e. extra man, offensive pushes, etc.), I highly doubt he's outperforming his contract on a team like Philly.

Much rather have Jost than Compher, simply because he makes less and I trust him more not to make a boneheaded play.

 

[Richard88]

I put less value into these type of stats considering it doesn't really account for the team he's playing on. Compher gets undeserved favorable deployment (i.e. extra man, offensive pushes, etc.), I highly doubt he's outperforming his contract on a team like Philly.

Much rather have Jost than Compher, simply because he makes less and I trust him more not to make a boneheaded play.

I'd take Jost as well. He's younger, cheaper, plays better defense, and likely has more trade value in the offseason than Compher (who will be a pending UFA). If we get Giroux then losing Compher's RHS faceoffs won't matter.

 

[Sea Eagles]

We already have the Jost replacement if he's moved.

Firstly, adding Giroux would push two of Compher/NAK/LOC down to the 4th line, all of whom are better skaters and fits for the style the north-south Avs play than Jost. We also have Helm returning. It's a numbers game and that 4th line will quickly become crowded if and when we add another top 9 forward.

The best and obvious direct replacement at 4C in particular though would be Maltsev who's metrics are actually great for a 4C:

• 55.60% in Corsi
  
• leads the team in hits/60 at 5v5
  
• leads the team in takeaways/60
  
• 57.89% on faceoffs.

Maltsev is big, can skate, win possession battles, hits, and wins draws. The only two things missing to make him a truly perfect 4C is being trusted on the PK (which is probably just a question of time for him to get accustomed to the system as he's pretty good defensively), and a lack of offense. He's been really snake-bit though, as evidenced by a PDO of 92.5 and on-ice shooting% of 2.60%, both of which are by far the lowest on the team.

In essence, the emergence of Maltsev at less than half of Jost's caphit has quietly made Jost a bit redundant on this team. To a lesser extent so has NAK given how seamlessly he's fit this teams identity to earn a bottom 6 role.

A big thing for mine is the ability to chip in offensively, particularly on that third and fourth line. 12 points in 45 games isn't huge, but it's something (5 goals). Maltzev has played 18 games for us, and hasn't even got an assist yet. Don't get me wrong, I do love a lot of what he brings, but if we want that size and grit, but don't mind lack of production, I'd actually rather MacDermid as our 12th forward, because he brings other elements (intimidation) for example.

Jost far and away out produces either, and honestly, he skates hard, he battles hard, he knows our system.

 

[the_fan]

The most important question not being asked here is, when or if the Avs trade for Giroux, what will he do for Murray to get the #28?

Rolex? Or just a dinner at an expensive restaurant will do?

 

[The Abusement Park]

The most important question not being asked here is, when or if the Avs trade for Giroux, what will he do for Murray to get the #28?

Rolex? Or just a dinner at an expensive restaurant will do?

Clearly Giroux picks 69.

 

[the_fan]

Clearly Giroux picks 69.

If he does that then he needs to dye his hair blue

Edit: and wear a tinted visor

 

[Spleenless Wonder21]

Saad was a stud in the playoffs but I haven’t really missed him at all. Newhook is just as good offensively in my opinion.

I feel like because he’s a guy whose impact you feel most in the playoffs that’s when the Avs potentially miss him. But, in a capped sport, that’s a luxury it’s tough to afford, especially as Colorado’s in the stretch with Rants, Landy, Makar, & MacK being/having been due significant raises.

 

[Richard88]

A big thing for mine is the ability to chip in offensively, particularly on that third and fourth line. 12 points in 45 games isn't huge, but it's something (5 goals). Maltzev has played 18 games for us, and hasn't even got an assist yet. Don't get me wrong, I do love a lot of what he brings, but if we want that size and grit, but don't mind lack of production, I'd actually rather MacDermid as our 12th forward, because he brings other elements (intimidation) for example.

Jost far and away out produces either, and honestly, he skates hard, he battles hard, he knows our system.

I appreciate your positivity, but I think you're overrating some of Jost's traits there. Whilst it's a bit hard to know where the true average is for Maltsev with a small sample size, the data available based on his games this season suggests that he's been extremely unlucky both offensively and defensively, as you can see by his team-low PDO of 0.925 (in the table below).

When analyzing a player's production it's always important to look at the underlying numbers to see if their production is sustainable. For example, Donskoi last year was pacing for 30 goals at times but he was sporting a 30% shot% which was clearly unsustainable. At face value some might say that he was a 30 goal scorer but looking at the underlying numbers you could see that he was obviously riding a hot streak that would eventually end, which it did.

With that in mind, let's compare some underlying metrics for Maltsev and Jost, looking at the chart below...

Expected goals for/against:

• xGF/60: 2.43 vs 2.18. Maltsev is expected to score 11.4% more than Jost.

• xGA/60: 2.33 vs 2.27. Maltsev is expected to concede 2.6% more goals against than Jost.

• xGF%: 51.02 vs 49.02. Overall in expected goal share Maltsev has a positive expected goal share, whereas Jost has a negative expected goal share.

Look now at SCF%, where Maltsev against has Jost beat, 53.78 to 48.75. Maltsev is creating more chances than Jost, and also conceding less.

In terms of high danger chances for%, Maltsev is at 50.88% compared to Jost at 45.63%. Which of these players do you expect to score more going forwards, based on this data? Be honest...

Now, despite having better underlying numbers than Jost it's still true that Jost has outproduced Maltsev points-wise. That seems to be due to bad puck luck for Maltsev more than anything, because as you can see Maltsev's On-Ice Shot% is a team-low 2.60%. He's basically had bad luck with goaltenders at both ends, because his HDCF% is 50.88% but his HDGF% is only 28.57. Conversely, Jost has been getting average puck luck, as his in on-ice shots% of 6.52% is close to his ~7.5% average for the last 3 seasons and his HDGF% is exactly 50%.

Now, maybe Maltsev is just an awful shooter and passer so that could be a reason why his expected goals share is good but he has no output. But then again, he had a 10.9% shot% last season in 33 games with NJ which suggests that his current 0% shot rate is due to improve. Worth noting here, as shown in the table at the bottom, that Maltsev's shooting volume (i.e. shots/60) at 5v5 is 4th among Avs forwards, which is pretty great for a 4th line/12th forward (Jost is 7th).

These are obviously small sample sizes, and his offensive upside is obviously a bit unknown, but purely based on the data below I'd be willing to be that Maltsev will start to produce pretty well for a 4th liner if given a chance at more regular minutes at 4C.

For what it's worth Sakic said in an offseason interview that Maltsev was going to be given a chance at 4C this season, and so now that he's doing well in the role I think Sakic will be much more open to moving Jost if another team (eg. Philadelphia) asks for him as a trade piece. That isn't to say that Jost is a bad player, but as I've hopefully illustrated with this data we already have a capable replacement 4C if Jost were to get moved.

 

[shadow1]

Saad is already underperforming his contract according to The Athletic's model ($4.5m contract vs $4.0 market value for his production), and it's only year 1 of the contract. And there are 4 more years to go on it after this one. I think it will age poorly.

I think it's telling that the Avs didn't even reach out to his camp before free agency this past off-season. If the leadership group in the dressing room saw him as a major asset, I think that information gets up to management and they at least try to make an offer.

He’s on pace for 30 goals/50 points, I don’t think the Blues are complaining

 

[Richard88]

I feel like because he’s a guy whose impact you feel most in the playoffs that’s when the Avs potentially miss him. But, in a capped sport, that’s a luxury it’s tough to afford, especially as Colorado’s in the stretch with Rants, Landy, Makar, & MacK being/having been due significant raises.

His shot% in the playoffs was ridiculously high at 36.8%. Remember him whiffing on a slap-shot and it sliding straight through Fleury... the guy had such great puck luck for a few games

 

[Bill Peckerskull]

The most important question not being asked here is, when or if the Avs trade for Giroux, what will he do for Murray to get the #28?

Rolex? Or just a dinner at an expensive restaurant will do?

Wait till he picks #82

 

[Sea Eagles]

I appreciate your positivity, but I think you're overrating some of Jost's traits there. Whilst it's a bit hard to know where the true average is for Maltsev with a small sample size, the data available based on his games this season suggests that he's been extremely unlucky both offensively and defensively, as you can see by his team-low PDO of 0.925 (in the table below).

When analyzing a player's production it's always important to look at the underlying numbers to see if their production is sustainable. For example,le Donskoi last year was pacing for 30 goals at times but he was sporting a 30% shot% which was clearly unsustainable. At face value some might say that he was a 30 goal scorer but looking at the underlying numbers you could see that he was obviously riding a hot streak that would eventually end, which it did.

With that in mind, let's compare some underlying metrics for Maltsev and Jost, looking at the chart below...

Expected goals for/against:

• xGF/60: 2.43 vs 2.18. Maltsev is expected to score 11.4% more than Jost.

• xGA/60: 2.33 vs 2.27. Maltsev is expected to concede 2.6% more goals against than Jost.

• xGF%: 51.02 vs 49.02. Overall in expected goal share Maltsev has a positive expected goal share, whereas Jost has a negative expected goal share.

Look now at SCF%, where Maltsev against has Jost beat, 53.78 to 48.75. Maltsev is creating more chances than Jost, and also conceding less.

In terms of high danger chances for%, Maltsev is at 50.88% compared to Jost at 45.63%. Which of these players do you expect to score more going forwards, based on this data? Be honest...

Now, despite having better underlying numbers than Jost it's still true that Jost has outproduced Maltsev points-wise. That seems to be due to bad puck luck for Maltsev more than anything, because as you can see Maltsev's On-Ice Shot% is a team-low 2.60%. He's basically had bad luck with goaltenders at both ends, because his HDCF% is 50.88% but his HDGF% is only 28.57. Conversely, Jost has been getting average puck luck, as his in on-ice shots% of 6.52% is close to his ~7.5% average for the last 3 seasons and his HDGF% is exactly 50%.

Now, maybe Maltsev is just an awful shooter and passer so that could be a reason why his expected goals share is good but he has no output. But then again, he had a 10.9% shot% last season in 33 games with NJ which suggests that his current 0% shot rate is due to improve. Worth noting here that, as shown in the table at the bottom, that Maltsev's shooting volume (i.e. shots/60) at 5v5 is 4th among Avs forwards, which is pretty great for a 4th line/12th forward (Jost is 7th).

These are obviously small sample sizes, and his offensive upside is obviously a bit unknown, but purely based on the data below I'd be willing to be that Maltsev will start to produce pretty well for a 4th liner if given a chance at more regular minutes at 4C.

For what it's worth Sakic said in an offseason interview that Maltsev was going to be given a chance at 4C this season, and so now that he's doing well in the role I think Sakic will be much more open to moving Jost if another team (eg. Philadelphia) asks for him as a trade piece. That isn't to say that Jost is a bad player, but as I've hopefully illustrated with this data we already have a capable replacement 4C if Jost were to get moved.


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Great post. I can't like it because the ability to do so has been removed from me (but take this as a like).

Honestly, I can't argue with that. The only thing (like you pointed out) that could be a variable, is Maltzev literally has only played 51 games at NHL level, and Jost has actually played 347 games (including playoffs), so Maltzev's numbers are some what unknown, or potentially volatile given sample size (subject to change). To be honest, if it's Jost that landed us say Giroux, and a Stanley Cup, I'd be gutted, but understanding.

That being said, we also have to take into consideration 2022 / 2023 seasons and beyond. Kadri is going to get paid, and I'm unsure Newhook will be ready for a full time 2C gig, so maybe someone like J T Miller instead of Giroux would be good (as he still has tenure, and isn't on much more than Kadri), which would make losing Jost , a prospect and a pick less hurtful (as Giroux will likely go back to Philly or somewhere for next season).

Bottom 6 of say: Nuke, Helm, LOC, Compher, NAK & Newhook would be pretty sweet, probably:

Nuke - Newhook - Compher
LOC - Helm - NAK

 

[Bill Peckerskull]

 

[hughdreamz]

 

[Hasbro]

So they went skiing.

 

[Richard88]

Great post. I can't like it because the ability to do so has been removed from me (but take this as a like).

Honestly, I can't argue with that. The only thing (like you pointed out) that could be a variable, is Maltzev literally has only played 51 games at NHL level, and Jost has actually played 347 games (including playoffs), so Maltzev's numbers are some what unknown, or potentially volatile given sample size (subject to change). To be honest, if it's Jost that landed us say Giroux, and a Stanley Cup, I'd be gutted, but understanding.

That being said, we also have to take into consideration 2022 / 2023 seasons and beyond. Kadri is going to get paid, and I'm unsure Newhook will be ready for a full time 2C gig, so maybe someone like J T Miller instead of Giroux would be good (as he still has tenure, and isn't on much more than Kadri), which would make losing Jost , a prospect and a pick less hurtful (as Giroux will likely go back to Philly or somewhere for next season).

Bottom 6 of say: Nuke, Helm, LOC, Compher, NAK & Newhook would be pretty sweet, probably:

Nuke - Newhook - Compher
LOC - Helm - NAK

Thanks, much appreciated.

JT Miller's caphit and versatility would certainly be a great fit on this team as well. Acquiring him would probably be considerably more expensive than acquiring Giroux though, due to the extra year of term and due to there not being a NTC to limit the number of competing teams like with Giroux.

Regarding the makeup of the bottom 6, I think it would be more like this if Giroux were to be acquired:

Nichuskin/Giroux ------- Newhook -- O'Connor
Helm/MacDermid ------- Maltsev --- Compher/NAK

Helm can't play center or win faceoffs that well anymore so it would be between Compher and Maltsev at 4C. On the wings it would come down to how much physicality Bednar wants on any given night. Hopefully Maltsev can become a reliable PK'er because that would improve his chances of sticking, and also fill the clear need of upgrading the PK.

 

[The Moops]

So they went skiing.

"Skiing" with Landy?

 

[Richard88]

Jeff Marek saying Vancouver are interested in Zacha who's an RFA this offseason with one year of team control left. His analytics have never been particularly impressive but does anyone think there's any untapped potential there?