Rumor: 2021-22 Trade Rumors and FA Part V: To Giroux or not to Giroux

[Bill Peckerskull]

EJ has to submit a list of 19 teams he can be traded to, so effectively he can block a trade to 12 teams. Presumably all seven canadian teams would be teams he'd block moves to. Then maybe teams like Buffalo and Arizona (unless he likes golf enough to endure a year on that team?). That would leave another 3 teams he can block.

Honestly though I don't think Sakic would be that ruthless to a guy who stuck by the team in the lean years and recently did the team a solid by agreeing to waive his NMC at the expansion draft. It's a strong quote though for sure.

He's not trading EJ before the end of this year, IMO. The guy is a huge presence in the room. He's basically the 2nd Captain on the team. Joe's too loyal to trade him, right now, after he stuck around through all the shit years and the injuries, right as the team is in the middle of a Cup run the next 3-4 years. I think the players in the locker room would take that very poorly. This offseason, especially if they win the Cup, or next year's deadline? Maybe, but not this year.

Personally, I think he'll finish his career in an Avs sweater. Finish up this deal, then resign for another year or two at like $1.5M and then retire.

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

Lets Make A Deal... Colorado & Philadelphia - Brotherly Bullies

Another Flyers article, no idea if they're connected or not, reads more like a fan of the team rather then someone with connections. And his comments on Tyson Jost are good for a laugh or two from anyone interested.



Anyway its yet another article from the Flyers side suggesting a Jost + Ranta + 1st package. Come on Joe, if that deal is on the table pull the trigger on it yesterday before any other team can possibly get involved and up the ante.

 

[Avsboy]

Lets Make A Deal... Colorado & Philadelphia - Brotherly Bullies

Another Flyers article, no idea if they're connected or not, reads more like a fan of the team rather then someone with connections. And his comments on Tyson Jost are good for a laugh or two from anyone interested.



Anyway its yet another article from the Flyers side suggesting a Jost + Ranta + 1st package. Come on Joe, if that deal is on the table pull the trigger on it yesterday before any other team can possibly get involved and up the ante.

Cap

 

[Richard88]

There's definitely a hole on the roster at either 2C/3C next year (depending on how Newhook does), and Dvorak does have history of being a solid match-up center. He has solid metrics as per the JFresh tweet below, but they were at least in part aided by playing on a line with Hall and Garland. His numbers were a lot worse when playing with Crouse and Kessel.

The charts in the 2nd tweet also strongly suggest that he probably isn't a target for Colorado. Our pro scouts clearly put a massive emphasis on metrics involving fore-checking, zone exit/entries, and rush offense, which aren't things Dvorak excels at.

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

Cap

Giroux @50% and Jost going out makes it work from the cap.


We do in fact have some cap space right now, and we have LTIR space.

EDIT: Maybe not quite(Our daily cap hit today is 80.9M so 600k in space +1.5M in LTIR), but its such a small gap that a simple move like sending Newhook down or putting Byram on LTIR would do the trick, or waiving JJ and putting him down.

 

[Richard88]

Lets Make A Deal... Colorado & Philadelphia - Brotherly Bullies

Another Flyers article, no idea if they're connected or not, reads more like a fan of the team rather then someone with connections. And his comments on Tyson Jost are good for a laugh or two from anyone interested.

Anyway its yet another article from the Flyers side suggesting a Jost + Ranta + 1st package. Come on Joe, if that deal is on the table pull the trigger on it yesterday before any other team can possibly get involved and up the ante.

Thanks for the laugh

"The next season, Jost burst onto the scene with 12-goals & 10-assists in 65-games in his rookie season as an 19-year-old."

Since, Jost has been a lock and solid middle-six player for the Avalanche. As well as stepping up to the top line when needed and not looking out of place by any means."

 

[Islay1989]

It would be the most Flyers thing ever to target Sampo Ranta as the main prospect for Giroux. Guy has legitimate NHL skills with a brick for a brain. I'm not sure you can make more out of him than a forechecking 4th liner at the NHL level.

If it seriously only takes Ranta + 1st + JTC, you do that deal ASAP before Fletcher has someone smart tell him "no" and they ask for more.

Prototypical Flyer.

 

[Metallo]

It's going to be hockey trade hey. So Joe is not looking to swap wives, we now know that.

 

[Gatorbait19]

It’s disingenuous to categorize Giroux as a “scoring forward”.

Giroux is a Swiss Army knife player. Can PK, can PP, play all positions, strong on faceoffs.

What we’ve seen from last playoffs is if you shutdown the top line, you have a great chance of beating the Avs.

With Giroux, matching up against the Avs becomes infinitely more difficult. They can spread talent across 3 lines. So you can’t just focus on the top line. Giroux also gives you another solid PKer who’s a threat shorthanded. Gives you a strong faceoff for important wins, on PK, on PP or end of period situations.

In fact, he helps many areas that the Avs need.

This is the biggest reason I want him. He’s a very good improvement to our PK and is also 4th in the league in FO% this year. No more getting hemmed in on PK and the last 2 mins of the game because we can’t win a faceoff. In key and late game situations we can trot him out in both the offensive and defensive zones.

Then you throw in the fact he’s a legit scorer and he seriously improves our team.

 

[Bill Peckerskull]

I'm still sticking to my guns that it's gonna be a huge 3-way deal with Giroux (75% retained) + Chychrun both ending up in Denver.

Philly gets JTC/Jost + Ranta + 2022 2nd + Bowers and eats 50% of Giroux's cap hit

Arizona gets Avs '23 1st + Girard + Helleson/Barron and eats another 50% of Giroux's cap hit.

 

[Richard88]

Just remember though, not everyone can be Rantanen, Mackinnon etc. You need those bargain basement contracts (I'm not talking about ability). They play a role.
So, who are we replacing Jost with, at that nominal salary? Same goes for MacDermid. I suggested he's the perfect role player for us, very cheap, and people are actually seeing that now.
Jost knows our system, our style, our culture. He's rarely injured. He's scored 12 points, in 45 games this season (not bad for a 4th liner) - on track for around 20.

I also think full strength, when the bottom 6 is filled completely, his numbers will improve: Compher, Newhook, NAK, Helm, LOC & Jost are a mighty fine bottom 6.

We already have the Jost replacement if he's moved.

Firstly, adding Giroux would push two of Compher/NAK/LOC down to the 4th line, all of whom are better skaters and fits for the style the north-south Avs play than Jost. We also have Helm returning. It's a numbers game and that 4th line will quickly become crowded if and when we add another top 9 forward.

The best and obvious direct replacement at 4C in particular though would be Maltsev who's metrics are actually great for a 4C:

• 55.60% in Corsi
  
• leads the team in hits/60 at 5v5
  
• leads the team in takeaways/60
  
• 57.89% on faceoffs.

Maltsev is big, can skate, win possession battles, hits, and wins draws. The only two things missing to make him a truly perfect 4C is being trusted on the PK (which is probably just a question of time for him to get accustomed to the system as he's pretty good defensively), and a lack of offense. He's been really snake-bit though, as evidenced by a PDO of 92.5 and on-ice shooting% of 2.60%, both of which are by far the lowest on the team.

In essence, the emergence of Maltsev at less than half of Jost's caphit has quietly made Jost a bit redundant on this team. To a lesser extent so has NAK given how seamlessly he's fit this teams identity to earn a bottom 6 role.

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

I'm still sticking to my guns that it's gonna be a huge 3-way deal with Giroux (75% retained) + Chychrun both ending up in Denver.

Philly gets JTC/Jost + Ranta + 2022 2nd + Bowers and eats 50% of Giroux's cap hit

Arizona gets Avs '23 1st + Girard + Helleson/Barron and eats another 50% of Giroux's cap hit.

Why on Earth are we doing that???

 

[Richard88]

I could see Giroux re-signing here on a 1, maybe 2 year deal then signing a final contract in Philly to retire a Flyer

A one year deal would be ideal. The cap is going to be a bit too tight in 2023 to fit in another $5-6m forward without losing one of Girard/Byram (but if Giroux does well then maybe that's a price you're willing to pay to keep him around longer).

You start throwing essentially 2 x 1st rounders and additional pieces around the summer and you will return a very good player. The prices for the biggest names are inflated this time of the year.

As to trying to win, the team should target players that fill our needs. A scoring forward should not be the top priority for the Avs cup run.

Giroux isn't just a pure scoring forward though, is he?...

• He's an elite playdriver at 5v5 (which helps both offensively and defensively);
  
• he's an excellent PK'er;
  
• he can win RHS face-offs (a clear lack on this team given Compher sucks at them); and
• he's a RHS which is a need on the PP to fill the bumper spot (Bednar prefers a RHS there), or as a RHS in the left-half spot on PP2.

Not to mention he's gone deep in the playoffs before so has some experience, while still being hungry to win a cup, whatever that is worth.

Adding a player like him to Newhook's line would obviously help the offense, but it would by extension also help the defense by helping to carry the play in the opposite direction, i.e. away from Murray/JJ/EJ. That trio are fine on the 3rd pair, they might just need some better insulation from forwards than we currently have on the 3rd line. Adding Giroux to the 3rd line, or bumping Nichuskin down, achieves that.

 

[Richard88]

Sakic also mentioned he's hopeful Byram is going to return.


I'm assuming that's the game plan they're going with right now until Byram says otherwise and with Byram back the need for a Top 4 Dman really doesn't exist.

Personally I dont think the need for a Top 4 guy exists in general. A bottom pairing guy that pushes at least one of Murray/JJ out of the lineup is all that's needed IMO.

I'll keep pounding the table for Luke Schenn. Here's a veteran guy that just won b2b cups with Tampa Bay as a depth Dman for them. Now he's in Vancouver having a really solid season. He's been playing Tanev's role with the Canucks as Hughes' babysitter and has really helped Hughes re-establish his game in the league.

IMO Schenn would do a lot of good things to help Sammy G in the playoffs, take a lot of pressure off of his shortcomings in the playoffs and allow him to do what he does best more effectively. He also shouldn't cost very much at all to acquire. Probably a 3rd round pick or similar sort of prospect. I'd do a 3rd + Kaut to get it done as well.

And the nice thing about Schenn is he's signed through next year for 850k as well, so you get your cheap 2nd/3rd pairing RHD for next year figured out already as well.

Toews - Makar
Girard - Schenn
Byram - EJ

With Murray and JJ as the reserves.

The way Schenn is playing with Quinn, and their obvious need at RHD, what incentive do Vancouver have to trade Schenn this year? They could probably get a similar return at next years deadline as the one(s) you suggested.

I also wonder about how willing Helleson would be to sign this year if he knows he's going to be stuck behind Schenn in the depth chart for the next ~18 months.

 

[Richard88]

The Landeskog and Makar contracts were great, and you're right that I shouldn't knock the off-season too much on that alone.

I actually don't mind the Kuemper move much, or at all. 1st + Timmins was a high price to pay, and Kuemper had a rocky first couple months, but overall it seems to be working out.

However, I still think it was bad. I know Colorado is amazing this season, but that has way more to do with Nazem Kadri scoring at a 120 point pace for 42 games than anything Sakic did in the off-season. Not counting goalies or expansion loses, the Avalanche exchanged Bellemare, Graves, Nemeth, Saad, Timmins --> Helm, Johnson, MacDermid, Maltsev, Murray, none of whom are moving the needle much.

I also think the decision to not buyout Erik Johnson was the wrong move. Johnson has been healthy (so far), but he's slowing down a lot as the season has gone on. If his salary prevents Colorado from making a sizable move at the deadline and/or he gets hurt in the playoffs, I think it's a decision that may come back to haunt the Avalanche. Just my $0.02.

Sakic deserves at least some credit for betting on guys like Nichuskin, Newhook, and Byram being able to step up their game in more prominent roles than they had last season. A more risk-averse GM might have paid futures to upgrade at 2LW/3C/2LW instead of betting on his guys. That goes for betting on Kadri to have a bounce-back year instead of trading him as other GM's may have done in the same situation.

In terms of the guys in bold, Nichuskin has effectively replaced Saad on the 2nd line; Byram was the Graves' replacement in the off-season; and personally I'd take a younger Maltsev over Bellemare given how he slowed down last year. I'd take any of Murray/JJ/MacDermid over Nemeth too, he was so brutal last postseason. MacDermid also brings a presence that clearly has an impact on this teams ability to push back.

Not saying that every move was perfect btw, and getting backed into a corner on the goalie carousel wasn't great, but the roster moves have made sense and seem to be paying off. We'll see how things go in the playoffs though obviously, but it seems that Sakic is preparing to make a key move or two to upgrade the roster further by then.

I liked the sugested trade of JTC straight up for Kessel (50%) just for the fact that it gets rid of JTCs contract next season.

Jost + 1st + prospect for Giroux (75% ret.)
and
Compher+ for Kessel (50%)

Landeskog -- Mackinnon -- Rantanen
Nichuskin ----- Kadri ------ Burakovsky
Giroux ------- Newhook ---- Kessel
NAK/MacD -- Maltsev ----- LOC

No shortage of goals in that lineup, but we might be a bit too reliant on top 6 guys for PK duties.

 

[nammerus]

The Landeskog and Makar contracts were great, and you're right that I shouldn't knock the off-season too much on that alone.

I actually don't mind the Kuemper move much, or at all. 1st + Timmins was a high price to pay, and Kuemper had a rocky first couple months, but overall it seems to be working out.

However, I still think it was bad. I know Colorado is amazing this season, but that has way more to do with Nazem Kadri scoring at a 120 point pace for 42 games than anything Sakic did in the off-season. Not counting goalies or expansion loses, the Avalanche exchanged Bellemare, Graves, Nemeth, Saad, Timmins --> Helm, Johnson, MacDermid, Maltsev, Murray, none of whom are moving the needle much.

I also think the decision to not buyout Erik Johnson was the wrong move. Johnson has been healthy (so far), but he's slowing down a lot as the season has gone on. If his salary prevents Colorado from making a sizable move at the deadline and/or he gets hurt in the playoffs, I think it's a decision that may come back to haunt the Avalanche. Just my $0.02.

Not buying out/trading EJ for the last 2 years…

Barely above replacement level the last 3.5 years at 6 mill a year. What a dog of a contract.

Also, Sakic re-signed Jost to a multi-year deal for some reason and dumped 2 mill in cap for Murray. Add that to JTC, and you have yourself ~13.5 million in cap room wasted. Imagine what could have been done with that money. An awful off-season, and the boys are winning in spite of it.

 

[forsbergavs32]

There’s just way too much smoke right now, I feel like it won’t end up happening. Avs moves usually come out of the blue

 

[Balthazar]

There’s just way too much smoke right now, I feel like it won’t end up happening. Avs moves usually come out of the blue

We're also 5 weeks away from the deadline

five weeks is a long ass time

 

[Avsboy]

There’s just way too much smoke right now, I feel like it won’t end up happening. Avs moves usually come out of the blue

Avs moves are usually minor. Most major moves would not be stealthy. For example you would see a lot of mutual scouting going on, and that's what's happening with the Flyers

 

[niwotsblessing]

He's not trading EJ before the end of this year, IMO. The guy is a huge presence in the room. He's basically the 2nd Captain on the team. Joe's too loyal to trade him, right now, after he stuck around through all the shit years and the injuries, right as the team is in the middle of a Cup run the next 3-4 years. I think the players in the locker room would take that very poorly. This offseason, especially if they win the Cup, or next year's deadline? Maybe, but not this year.

Personally, I think he'll finish his career in an Avs sweater. Finish up this deal, then resign for another year or two at like $1.5M and then retire.

EJ wants to win a Cup with the Avs. Badly.

He will step up his game in the playoffs when whistles disappear, and may literally kill someone (preferably from Vegas or Minny) to win the Cup.

 

[Northern Avs Fan]

Not buying out/trading EJ for the last 2 years…

View attachment 506670

Barely above replacement level the last 3.5 years at 6 mill a year. What a dog of a contract.

Also, Sakic re-signed Jost to a multi-year deal for some reason and dumped 2 mill in cap for Murray. Add that to JTC, and you have yourself ~13.5 million in cap room wasted. Imagine what could have been done with that money. An awful off-season, and the boys are winning in spite of it.

I do think EJ is the warrior type that will be useful in the playoffs. His contract will need to go in the off-season though. The Avs could do a lot of damage with $32M in cap space.

 

[Richard88]

Something Sakic said that I don't think anyone has touched on here yet is the team has been focusing a lot on managing the puck better and making the simple and smart plays to close out games. That approach was on full show in the 3rd period of the Arizona game where I thought we were managing the puck well and playing the clock. Obviously the end result wasn't great, and we probably would have won the game had we gone full-pelt offense at Arizona in the 3rd, but in the long-run it's probably going to serve the team really well to practice playing that style of hockey.

This team has been guilty of only knowing how to play one way in recent years, but seem to be learning to control games better and win with multiple tactical approaches. Reminds me a little bit of the transformation Tampa had after their 60 win season, when they adapted their game to also be able to match the ugly hockey that teams like Columbus and NYI threw at them.

 

[Richard88]

I do think EJ is the warrior type that will be useful in the playoffs. His contract will need to go in the off-season though. The Avs could do a lot of damage with $32M in cap space.

The tricky thing with getting rid of EJ is that it only creates a one year window before that money has to go to Mackinnon. How do you spent that extra $5-6m in the offseason for just one year?

 

[Gruyeriev]

DNVR wishlist for funsies:

1. Giroux
2. Pavelski
3. Klingberg (if Byram remains out)
4. de Haan
5. J.T. Miller
6. Giordano
7. Toffoli
8. L. Schenn
9. Drouin
10. Kessel

HM: DeBrusk

I do not like that list

 

[Avs71]

The tricky thing with getting rid of EJ is that it only creates a one year window before that money has to go to Mackinnon. How do you spent that extra $5-6m in the offseason for just one year?

Re-sign Giroux for a chance at a 2nd Stanley Cup.