Part of the discussion would have to include the fact that better performance from Vilardi and Turcotte would negatively alter the draft slots of more recent drafts and result in no Byfield and Clarke. Slow progress could be a good thing if they all "take off" in the same season.
Prospect Info: 2021-22 Kings Prospects in CHL/College/Europe part 4
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Herby
How could Blake have known?
None of those guys were available when the Kings picked, why would I include them? And am I excusing any of those teams? No, they too received terrible ROI on their picks (I've been calling Middlestadt a bust for years, even included him as my main warning sign for doing the same thing with Turcotte). You seem to (correctly) call these picks from other teams bad picks, but seem to not want to include the Kings pick as a bad one, why?
What is the context I am missing with Vilardi and dismissive of his situation? He already played an entire season in the NHL with some up and down results offensively and struggles to keep up in the defensive zone. A year later he is in the minors at age 22 (not a kid anymore). I wish he were up because I think the need for his skill outweighs the clear deficiencies that coaching and management see in him in other areas, but they don't agree and that is the reality of the situation. Is it possible that maybe just maybe this a modern day Pavel Rosa situation. Alot of similarities, Rosa lost an entire season to injury, Rosa was a dominant star in junior hockey, Rosa scored a lot in the minors, he even scored decently in the NHL when given a chance on a bad team but when the team turned the corner and was trying to compete his skating and defensive deficiencies made it where the coach didn't feel comfortable putting him in the lineup. Aren't the situations pretty similar now?
Vilardi's draft wasn't necessarily that good. Without crunching numbers, Gabe is right about 10th or 11th in total ppg out of his entire draft, which is right at his draft spot. Throw in his crazy rehab and injury and that's actually pretty impressive.
Sometimes a lot of teams appear to have terrible results in a draft just because the draft wasn't that good. Outside of picks 3, 4, and 5 and a couple picks here and there 2017 was pretty shitty. It's impossible to compare different draft years and make blanket statements like "well, we should have a guy that can step right in if he's a top 5 pick" when draft quality varies substantially. All you can do is compare your teams picks to what other teams did in that same draft to gauge success, everything else is apples to oranges.
Sometimes a lot of teams appear to have terrible results in a draft just because the draft wasn't that good. Outside of picks 3, 4, and 5 and a couple picks here and there 2017 was pretty shitty. It's impossible to compare different draft years and make blanket statements like "well, we should have a guy that can step right in if he's a top 5 pick" when draft quality varies substantially. All you can do is compare your teams picks to what other teams did in that same draft to gauge success, everything else is apples to oranges.
Raccoon Jesus
We were right there
It's less about the suggestion that it could turn out a bad pick and more your assertiveness that he's already toast (calling it a 'bad pick'). And people are pretty f***ing tired of that suggestion given the previous writeoffs of him due to injury.
Even YOU acknowledge he could/should be in the NHL right now so I'm not sure why you're being overly-literal and calling him a non-NHL scoring line forward.
Herby
How could Blake have known?
He will never be as good as players we could have realistically taken, same thing as the pick made two years later, and hence my comments while heaping praise on their later picks there is a valid concern about how they evaluate and develop the top of the board. He doesn't look to have a future as a center which he was drafted, the Kings have yet to call him up to the low pressure 3rd line winger spot which in theory should suit him perfectly. He is not a kid, this is his last season he isn't waiver eligible, 1st round picks who are in the AHL in their D+5 have a pretty poor history of being NHL players, don't believe me just look it up. Maybe "bad" is a harsh word that should be reserved for the Colten Teubert's of the world, but if you take a player with a pick that high and in his D+5 he is not on the NHL roster it's just hard to be very positive about the pick.
And I don't hate Vilardi, I realize his severe limitations but he has some skill and yes I do wish he was up, for a couple of reasons.
1. The alternatives are not going to provide the offense that is needed, even if they might be more well rounded players. I think the Kings should try and win this season and the Kings aren't going to win this season with offensive weak links like Kupari, Turcotte and Brown on that line. All of those guys have been tried since Gabe was demoted, they have all failed to provide what was needed and now it should be Gabe's turn, especially if they won't move Kaliyev up.
2. Maximizing value from a declining asset. If he isn't in the Kings future plans (which I suspect is likely) he should be up and being showcased to other teams before this years TDL. Even if it's only to return a Halpern or Modin type veteran player. It's not like he would be taking a spot from a solid player anyways. If he stays in the AHL this year his trade value is going to be anywhere from zero to very low if they move him this summer but he would definitely be claimed for free by someone rolling the dice. I just don't get what an aging former 1st round pick with a seasons worth of NHL experience is gaining from playing at that level.
Raccoon Jesus
We were right there
And see, my beef is with the boldfaced. I don't think we know that yet. Maybe Suzuki is the best of the bunch as he has been consistent with that so far and then more than just the Kings missed on that one, but Necas hasn't been consistent, Norris JUST emerged this year, and Thomas is this year scoring at rate lower than Vilardi's 'bad' season, so maybe just hit pause on that. I think you're underrating what he has done in the NHL with limited development time and not only getting that wrong but extrapolating that wrong evaluation to be permanent.
To everything else, I think most would agree--but you're making the mistake of assigning the Kings' questionable prospect decisions thus the final say on GV's abilities. You and I both know he CAN and SHOULD be in the NHL now; he's NOT and that's not because he CAN'T. That's a Kings decision, not an indictment of his abilities.
With respect I think your two points are contradictory--on one hand you're saying Gabe should be up and the Kings development is questionable, and on the other you're saying he's approaching bust territory.
Herby
How could Blake have known?
Can I ask what you are basing some of your comments off of? I truly have no idea.
Thomas has 32 points in 38 games this season or a 69 point pace over 82 games. Gabe had 23 in 54 last season or a 35 point pace. Thomas has a .57 ppg in 209 NHL games as a 19-20-21-22 year old. Gabe has a .44 ppg in the NHL as a 20, 21 and 22 year old.
Josh Norris just emerged this season, In what world? He played the entire NHL season last year and scored 17 goals and 35 points in the NHL. Over a full 82 that is 25 goals and 51 points. He was 3rd in the entire NHL in rookie scoring.
As with the Stutzle garbage time stuff, can we keep the discussion factual if possible. The Norris comments especially aren't a good look.
I think he can be in the NHL and I think he should be based on the Kings need for an offensively talented 3rd line RW, but I also understand the reasons he isn't, I don't believe you think those are valid reasons. His speed and compete level last year was noticeably poor on a lot of nights and the Kings are worried the offense won't make up for the poor all-around game in a season the Kings are trying to make the playoffs, last season was just a throw away season, this year isn't.
As far as calling him a bust, no, not yet but yes we are getting closer, later this calendar year closer. Again, historically first round picks who are still in the AHL in their D+5 are long-shots to ever be good NHL'ers. I'm not saying something that is factually untrue, feel free to research it yourself. He is waiver eligible next season, if he isn't moved and doesn't make the team in 8 months it's game-set-match and you have to call him a bust.
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Vilardi was an 11th overall pick in the draft.
What are the realistic expectations of a #11 overall pick to start with? I do not expect superstar material.
the draft was not considered strong to start with
the kid suffered a major injury and setback taking away crucial development time.
he was thrown to the wolves last year and floundered. Some of it looked more mental then physical
this year he is learning a new position and he looks like he is doing well.
even if he turns into a productive top 6 winger that’s about right for his draft slot
give him another year before writing him off
What are the realistic expectations of a #11 overall pick to start with? I do not expect superstar material.
the draft was not considered strong to start with
the kid suffered a major injury and setback taking away crucial development time.
he was thrown to the wolves last year and floundered. Some of it looked more mental then physical
this year he is learning a new position and he looks like he is doing well.
even if he turns into a productive top 6 winger that’s about right for his draft slot
give him another year before writing him off
Raccoon Jesus
We were right there
nope you're right, I'm absolutely an idiot and had 2021 as the most recent statlines, rather than 2022. Year is still doing a number on me. My fault.
Regardless with Gabe a year and a half behind due to injury his pacing remains similar to those players and better in some case. i.e. last year's season by Thomas saw him at a 29 point pace rather than the previous years 52, similar to Gabe's 35 point pace falling off 57. And that's with zero insulation vs. Thomas on a much much better team all around. Yet they didn't throw dirt on his casket like some are here re: GV.
Historically you're looking at guys who were there completely healthy, not many that took the path GV did. It makes sense that if a guy can't break through after 5 years of consistent hockey that the clock is ticking but that's not the case with GV who is looking stronger and stronger every game now that he's actually getting to play consistent hockey.
I know we can't just say those years off don't matter because they do, that's valuable development time; but I do also think they buy him a little more freedom. Especially with the team situations, his health, the jerking around of positions as well as NHL to AHL and back. You're just giving him zero leeway and that's your opinion, and getting to hide behind "factual" because he's currently in the AHL is just silly, especially when half of what you're saying is he should be there. It's hollow and dishonest criticism to paint him as a 5 year AHLer when you admit you know better.
Herby
How could Blake have known?
But the waiver rules are the same for him (correct me if I am wrong). If Vilardi isn't moved he has to make the team next season or he ends up going the route of Hickey.
I guess the development think is just tough for me to understand because he already made the NHL and played an entire (shortened) season, and now for whatever reason (and we can debate that), he isn't up in the NHL while the Kings have given chances to other younger players to fill that role. Maybe I am wrong but trying QB, Kupari, Fagemo and Turcotte, three guys who are younger than Gabe and with very little or no NHL experience on that line for a team trying to win just tells me the Kings don't think highly of him playing what should be the perfect role for him.
You know I like skilled players, I have for years argued that we need to bring more into this organization, and I don't hate Gabe, he like many skilled players has deficiencies in his game that teams have to find a way to work around. My feelings are the Kings just don't feel like they can work around them enough to make it work and would like someone else to assume that role and that Gabe's time in LA is quickly running out. 22 is not young for a prospect, that is why the waiver rules are designed the way they are.
Raccoon Jesus
We were right there
I agree with you on all of this, and I think most will. I do think every one of the players you mentioned have flaws in their game that they're being allowed to work thru while Gabe isn't. I'd argue the biggest difference between him and, say, Necas, is look at the opportunity NEcas is getting and on what team, whereas Gabe was thrown in with Lizotte and AA on a basement team and asked to be a savior. If they can't iron out some of that stuff and see past it in such a way that they can keep him in the NHL, then some other team is going to trip onto a 50-point player for free, imo--and our worries about the Kings flushing blue chip talent because they're clueless will have come true.
I've been skeptical as hell all year and I'm simply trying not to be now, especially given Blake's comments about Kaliyev being in the top-six next year--holding out hope that they're just giving Gabe some confidence and seasoning before pulling him up for good at W. But I agree the signs don't point to that.
Scott Wheeler:
4. Gabe Vilardi, C, 22 (Ontario Reign/Los Angeles Kings)
Vilardi’s a player I’ve always had time for and one I’m surprised the Kings haven’t had more for truthfully. He’s 6-foot-3 and 215 pounds, but he’s more than just the puck-protection centre you’d expect at a glance of his listed height and weight. He’s not a power-forward type, preferring instead to calculate his way around the ice. The things that make him effective aren’t the attention-grabbing kind. He’s not an explosive skater. He’s not a natural scoring threat. He’s not the dynamic, creative, puck-on-a-string type. He’s just a well-rounded offensive player who understands how to use spacing to make plays in a variety of ways. He’s got impressive skill, with a threatening hashmarks shot and good hands one-on-one with goalies or in traffic, but he’s also able to take the puck off the wall and make plays to the interior with his puck control skill out wide to his body. He’s the kind of player who doesn’t have a star quality but impacts a game and produces just the same as players his age who do. I enjoy watching him navigate out there and I think he belongs in the NHL (which is supported by his results and his makeup). I wonder if because he’s not what you maybe imagine out of a player who looks like him, whether that has created conflict and frustrations with the coaching staff (which, again, I would likely argue has more to do with archetypes and bias than his merits as a player).
4. Gabe Vilardi, C, 22 (Ontario Reign/Los Angeles Kings)
Vilardi’s a player I’ve always had time for and one I’m surprised the Kings haven’t had more for truthfully. He’s 6-foot-3 and 215 pounds, but he’s more than just the puck-protection centre you’d expect at a glance of his listed height and weight. He’s not a power-forward type, preferring instead to calculate his way around the ice. The things that make him effective aren’t the attention-grabbing kind. He’s not an explosive skater. He’s not a natural scoring threat. He’s not the dynamic, creative, puck-on-a-string type. He’s just a well-rounded offensive player who understands how to use spacing to make plays in a variety of ways. He’s got impressive skill, with a threatening hashmarks shot and good hands one-on-one with goalies or in traffic, but he’s also able to take the puck off the wall and make plays to the interior with his puck control skill out wide to his body. He’s the kind of player who doesn’t have a star quality but impacts a game and produces just the same as players his age who do. I enjoy watching him navigate out there and I think he belongs in the NHL (which is supported by his results and his makeup). I wonder if because he’s not what you maybe imagine out of a player who looks like him, whether that has created conflict and frustrations with the coaching staff (which, again, I would likely argue has more to do with archetypes and bias than his merits as a player).
Trash Panda
Registered User
- May 12, 2021
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Man, Brock Faber has absolutely come to play in this tournament.
Looks very polished for a college player against Canada tonight. He arguably is bringing more to the team than the demigod Jake Sanderson.
Looks very polished for a college player against Canada tonight. He arguably is bringing more to the team than the demigod Jake Sanderson.
cyclones22
Registered User
Trash Panda
Registered User
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Now he is taking the 5 on 3 shifts in the closing minutes of the game.
Kid is a stud.
Kid is a stud.
cyclones22
Registered User
Very solid game by Faber. Always fighting out in front of his net, which I swear our defensemen don't do a ton of. His skating nullifies a lot of attacks and danger chances, but that skating means nothing without the instincts and being able to read the play. It's what separates Faber from those good skating condors the Kings would draft but not actually be good at defense.
Wait, can we take anything away from this game since it wasn't an 8-0 win over China this time?
Wait, can we take anything away from this game since it wasn't an 8-0 win over China this time?
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Raccoon Jesus
We were right there
Joking aside awesome to see the poise of the young USA dmen in Faber and Sanderson, and friggin Power is gonna be a madman as well
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I think the most promising thing about Faber is if he looks this solid now, wait until after we've had him for a while. Right now I don't put him in the untouchable category but he's certainly headed in that direction.
kingsfan28
Its A Kingspiracy !
Lot of people sleeping on Faber.
That RHD pool is stacked at the moment.
That RHD pool is stacked at the moment.
I have a right side of
Doughty
Clarke
Faber
So no sleeping here.. just too optimistic maybe lol
Btw, he’s on my untouchable list(except for a superstar)
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cyclones22
Registered User
Another good game by Faber vs Germany and again leading the team in ice time at over 25 minutes TOI. Sanderson didn't even play today.
cyclones22
Registered User
Both Sean Walker and Matt Roy are going to be off the roster before the end of next season. Roy is a very good shutdown defenseman. But Faber's ceiling is so much higher. And the dude just shuts down people at every level in every competition and is more well-rounded than any of our other shutdown defenseman.
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