2021-2022 S Blues Multi-Purpose Thread Part 3

[Linkens Mastery]

Buch just has 3 years left on his deal. Buch was an RFA when we acquired him, so his 4 year deal started immediately. However, I expect him to be extended at the end of that deal if the team is still competing. He hits UFA the same summer that Schenn, Saad, Faulk, Krug, and Leddy see their full NTCs become modified NTCs. Binner's full NTC will have become a modified NTC the summer before.

We might have to include assets to make it happen and we might have to retain some money for a season if it is Saad and/or Leddy that gets moved. But that is the summer where shedding salary becomes much more likely. If he is interested in an extension, we should be able to make it work.

I don't think we'll see that line a ton this year though. I think we see Kyrou slide into Perron's spot with ROR to see if some speed can add an offensive pop to that line. For as much as we love Perron, he didn't produce much of anything at 5 on 5 last year and that line was too slow to go up and down the ice against other top lines. If I were Berube, this would be my top 6

Saad-ROR-Kyrou
Buch-Thomas-Tarasenko

Let Schenn be the backbone of the 3rd line most of the time, with the exception that he can slide into Saad's slot with ROR and Kyrou when we are chasing a game and need to focus on scoring goals (Saad slides down to the 3rd line with Barby sliding to the center spot on the 3rd line).

I for some reason thought he signed a 5 year deal. Oops

 

[Snubbed4Vezina]

This means at least one of Vlad/ROR is gone next year right? Am I off with that thinking?

I’ve been mentally preparing myself that Vlad is most likely gone regardless

Barring something unforeseen I just don't see any way they can bring back both next offseason. I'm worried that they'll both be gone with O'Reilly getting an overwhelming contract offer from a young, up and coming team looking to get over the hump.

 

[MissouriMook]

I'm interested to see how Perron's departure affects Kyrou's ice time next season. He only had around 16:34 per game last season in all situations while Thomas had 18:47 with most of the difference being PK time. You never automatically expect the increase in ice time to translate to more production, but he did spend quite a bit of time on PP2 early last season, and especially if he's given more ES ice time than he had last season he could struggle with more defensive attention and revert to being a 60 point guy or he could breakout being more in the spotlight and be a 90-95 point guy. He seemed to thrive in the bright lights of the playoffs last season, so my money is on him having a big year in a larger role.

 

[STL fan in MN]

This means at least one of Vlad/ROR is gone next year right? Am I off with that thinking?

I’ve been mentally preparing myself that Vlad is most likely gone regardless

Pretty much, yeah.

Hopefully they’re able to re-sign ROR. But I think Tarasenko is as good as gone. Besides them not being able to afford him, he requested a trade. It appears that’s calmed down a bit but the odds of him even wanting to re-sign here seems small to me.

Bottom line, by next season, they’ll need some cheap contracts (Neighbours & Bolduc most likely) to be fairly key contributors. Perunovich blossoming would certainly help too (but not blossom too much as he’s on a 1-year deal).

Here’s a quick roster I just put together. Capfriendly shows next year’s Cap as $83.5M. Not sure if that’s an estimate or set in stone but I went with it. It allows for the addition of a $4M caliber player to replace Tarasenko.

Thomas - 8.125
Kyrou - 8.125
ROR - 7
Schenn - 6.5
Buch - 5.8
Saad - 4.5
Acciari or similar - 1
Neighbours - .836
Bolduc - .836
Torpo - .775
Walker - .775
13th F - .775
14th F - .775
Tarasenko replacement - $4.25
Forward total: $50.072M

Faulk - 6.5
Parayko - 6.5
Krug - 6.5
Leddy - 4
Perunovich - 1.4
Borts - .95
7th - .775
Defense total: $26.625M

Binny - 6
Hofer - .775
Goalie total: $6.775

Grand total: $83.472M

Hopefully those are reasonable guesses at resigning ROR and Perunovich. I’ll also note that league minimum goes up $25k next season so that makes it a bit harder. This is a team that’ll need lots of guys at league minimum or close to it.

Trade one of Schenn or Krug and that makes it easier but that of course opens up yet another hole. Tough job for Army but it’s not as bad of a situation as I thought before doing this exercise.

 

[TheDizee]

91 and 90 could be brought back if they move a contract like Saad or Scandella out.

 

[ChicagoBlues]

I'm interested to see how Perron's departure affects Kyrou's ice time next season. He only had around 16:34 per game last season in all situations while Thomas had 18:47 with most of the difference being PK time. You never automatically expect the increase in ice time to translate to more production, but he did spend quite a bit of time on PP2 early last season, and especially if he's given more ES ice time than he had last season he could struggle with more defensive attention and revert to being a 60 point guy or he could breakout being more in the spotlight and be a 90-95 point guy. He seemed to thrive in the bright lights of the playoffs last season, so my money is on him having a big year in a larger role.

I think we will see Kyrou on the PP1 in Perron's position (if they run a similar PP), so his TOI should increase.

 

[Zezel’s Pretzels]

Pretty much, yeah.

Hopefully they’re able to re-sign ROR. But I think Tarasenko is as good as gone. Besides them not being able to afford him, he requested a trade. It appears that’s calmed down a bit but the odds of him even wanting to re-sign here seems small to me.

Bottom line, by next season, they’ll need some cheap contracts (Neighbours & Bolduc most likely) to be fairly key contributors. Perunovich blossoming would certainly help too (but not blossom too much as he’s on a 1-year deal).

Here’s a quick roster I just put together. Capfriendly shows next year’s Cap as $83.5M. Not sure if that’s an estimate or set in stone but I went with it. It allows for the addition of a $4M caliber player to replace Tarasenko.

Thomas - 8.125
Kyrou - 8.125
ROR - 7
Schenn - 6.5
Buch - 5.8
Saad - 4.5
Acciari or similar - 1
Neighbours - .836
Bolduc - .836
Torpo - .775
Walker - .775
13th F - .775
14th F - .775
Tarasenko replacement - $4.25
Forward total: $50.072M

Faulk - 6.5
Parayko - 6.5
Krug - 6.5
Leddy - 4
Perunovich - 1.4
Borts - .95
7th - .775
Defense total: $26.625M

Binny - 6
Hofer - .775
Goalie total: $6.775

Grand total: $83.472M

Hopefully those are reasonable guesses at resigning ROR and Perunovich. I’ll also note that league minimum goes up $25k next season so that makes it a bit harder. This is a team that’ll need lots of guys at league minimum or close to it.

Trade one of Schenn or Krug and that makes it easier but that of course opens up yet another hole. Tough job for Army but it’s not as bad of a situation as I thought before doing this exercise.

Good post. Looking at the long-term contract sitch on CapFriendly...thinking Schenn's going to have to go in a couple/few years. I hope he maintains his level of play next season; he's a heart and soul of the team guy. But that's a long time to go for a 31 year old.

 

[PocketNines]

They are hoping/expecting Thomas and Kyrou's games to mature, they are hoping Neighbors and Bolduc offset Perron and Tarasenko, but they have to keep ROR because he is the irreplaceable competitive driver. A leader like ROR drags talent into the fight, and that's a meaningful playoff impact.

 

[542365]

Thrilled with the Kyrou deal. If he gets top PP time I could see him hitting 90+ Points most of his prime. True game breaker offensively.

 

[mk80]

The focus was definitely to keep Kyrou and Thomas together for a similar amount of time. I think for the most parts they are good deals to both players, now we just need the right mix of contracts around them and hopefully the salary cap increases as projected to help out.

 

[Brian39]

I'm interested to see how Perron's departure affects Kyrou's ice time next season. He only had around 16:34 per game last season in all situations while Thomas had 18:47 with most of the difference being PK time. You never automatically expect the increase in ice time to translate to more production, but he did spend quite a bit of time on PP2 early last season, and especially if he's given more ES ice time than he had last season he could struggle with more defensive attention and revert to being a 60 point guy or he could breakout being more in the spotlight and be a 90-95 point guy. He seemed to thrive in the bright lights of the playoffs last season, so my money is on him having a big year in a larger role.

I doubt he gets much more 5 on 5 time this year. He was the RW ice time leader at 5 on 5 last year. He was 4th among forwards in 5 on 5 minutes last year. Berube had a 'roll the top 3 lines' mentality at 5 on 5 and I expect that to continue. Kyrou should get tougher quality of competition and an upgrade to his line mates, but I'm not sure I expect him to start seeing more 5 on 5 minutes at the expense of the 3rd line (unless we can't find anyone to work as the 9th forward and that line becomes a liability). I think we'll come at teams in waves again. 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, repeat.

In terms of boosting minutes, If we're simply trying to replace Perron's role on the existing top unit, he has the clear inside track. Barby, Brown, Buch, Kostin, Neighbours, Schenn, ROR, Saad, Tarasenko, and Bolduc all shoot left. If we're plugging a top 9 forward into Perron's corner on the PP, it needs to be a right hand shot and that leaves Kyrou and Thomas. I know which of those two is a legitimate threat to finish passing plays. In the less likely scenario where we scrap a top 5 PP setup completely and rebuild from scratch, I have to think that the reason would be to run the PP through your two skilled young forwards. He has way too much skill to be left off a group that is being started from scratch.

I think his ice time will be in the mid/high 17s and it will mostly be due to increased usage on the top PP unit. That's plenty for me and I expect him to either repeat last year or potentially see a slight uptick in production.

 

[Bye Bye Blueston]

Pretty much, yeah.

Hopefully they’re able to re-sign ROR. But I think Tarasenko is as good as gone. Besides them not being able to afford him, he requested a trade. It appears that’s calmed down a bit but the odds of him even wanting to re-sign here seems small to me.

Bottom line, by next season, they’ll need some cheap contracts (Neighbours & Bolduc most likely) to be fairly key contributors. Perunovich blossoming would certainly help too (but not blossom too much as he’s on a 1-year deal).

Here’s a quick roster I just put together. Capfriendly shows next year’s Cap as $83.5M. Not sure if that’s an estimate or set in stone but I went with it. It allows for the addition of a $4M caliber player to replace Tarasenko.

Thomas - 8.125
Kyrou - 8.125
ROR - 7
Schenn - 6.5
Buch - 5.8
Saad - 4.5
Acciari or similar - 1
Neighbours - .836
Bolduc - .836
Torpo - .775
Walker - .775
13th F - .775
14th F - .775
Tarasenko replacement - $4.25
Forward total: $50.072M

Faulk - 6.5
Parayko - 6.5
Krug - 6.5
Leddy - 4
Perunovich - 1.4
Borts - .95
7th - .775
Defense total: $26.625M

Binny - 6
Hofer - .775
Goalie total: $6.775

Grand total: $83.472M

Hopefully those are reasonable guesses at resigning ROR and Perunovich. I’ll also note that league minimum goes up $25k next season so that makes it a bit harder. This is a team that’ll need lots of guys at league minimum or close to it.

Trade one of Schenn or Krug and that makes it easier but that of course opens up yet another hole. Tough job for Army but it’s not as bad of a situation as I thought before doing this exercise.

Thank you for putting this together. This proposed roster assumes they move Scandella. If they don't, there is roughly $2.5mm less for the Tarasenko replacement you propose.

 

[STL fan in MN]

Thank you for putting this together. This proposed roster assumes they move Scandella. If they don't, there is roughly $2.5mm less for the Tarasenko replacement you propose.

That’s a fair point. Can you tell I’ve already moved on from Scandella in my mind?

 

[Brian39]

91 and 90 could be brought back if they move a contract like Saad or Scandella out.

Let's say that 90 and 91 take pay cuts to stay and each sign for $7M. The team then also moves Saad and Scandella without retaining any salary or taking back another contract.

That would leave ROR, Tarasenko, Kyrou, Thomas, Schenn, Buch, Faulk, Parayko, Leddy, Krug, Bortz, and Binner on the roster. Assuming no bonus overages and an $83.5M cap (which is what it will be unless we only play a partial season), that leaves the team with $10.5M to fill 11 roster spots. Assume Neighbours, Bolduc, Walker, and Rosen make the roster and you're down to $7.2M to fill 7 spots. Fill 5 more of those guys with league minimum players. That leaves you with about $3.4M to fill the last 2 roster spots (which would probably need to be spent in an effort to round out your 3rd line and improve the 3rd pair from Rosen/Bortz).

We could fit both if they take discounts, we move at roughly $8M in cap hits, and we're willing to decimate the depth by filling the entire bottom half of the roster for about $10M.

It's not happening. At least one of ROR or Tarasenko is going to be wearing a different jersey in 2023/24.

 

[Bye Bye Blueston]

91 and 90 could be brought back if they move a contract like Saad or Scandella out.

You misspelled Krug.

 

[Stupendous Yappi]

Buch just has 3 years left on his deal. Buch was an RFA when we acquired him, so his 4 year deal started immediately. However, I expect him to be extended at the end of that deal if the team is still competing. He hits UFA the same summer that Schenn, Saad, Faulk, Krug, and Leddy see their full NTCs become modified NTCs. Binner's full NTC will have become a modified NTC the summer before.

We might have to include assets to make it happen and we might have to retain some money for a season if it is Saad and/or Leddy that gets moved. But that is the summer where shedding salary becomes much more likely. If he is interested in an extension, we should be able to make it work.

I don't think we'll see that line a ton this year though. I think we see Kyrou slide into Perron's spot with ROR to see if some speed can add an offensive pop to that line. For as much as we love Perron, he didn't produce much of anything at 5 on 5 last year and that line was too slow to go up and down the ice against other top lines. If I were Berube, this would be my top 6

Saad-ROR-Kyrou
Buch-Thomas-Tarasenko

Let Schenn be the backbone of the 3rd line most of the time, with the exception that he can slide into Saad's slot with ROR and Kyrou when we are chasing a game and need to focus on scoring goals (Saad slides down to the 3rd line with Barby sliding to the center spot on the 3rd line).

I like those lines a lot, and I like Schenn to center a rookie on the 3rd line. If Saad can function in that roll, its a big bonus.

Which line is the match-up defensive line?

 

[Daley Tarasenkshow]

They are hoping/expecting Thomas and Kyrou's games to mature, they are hoping Neighbors and Bolduc offset Perron and Tarasenko, but they have to keep ROR because he is the irreplaceable competitive driver. A leader like ROR drags talent into the fight, and that's a meaningful playoff impact.

I'm not trying to target this at you, but I've always found this phrase so overused in discussing hockey. Who are the fans to judge or say if someone is doing this? ROR rarely engages after the whistle, and really doesn't seem to be a very vocal player both during or after play. He's not the type of player I would characterize as someone who 'drags talent into the fight', but because he's a captain and plays a two-way game he gets this title, to me. Competitiveness is too broad to characterize as this.

 

[PocketNines]

I'm not trying to target this at you, but I've always found this phrase so overused in discussing hockey. Who are the fans to judge or say if someone is doing this? ROR rarely engages after the whistle, and really doesn't seem to be a very vocal player both during or after play. He's not the type of player I would characterize as someone who 'drags talent into the fight', but because he's a captain and plays a two-way game he gets this title, to me. Competitiveness is too broad to characterize as this.

Since you're challenging the concept let me restate what I observe out of ROR and what I mean by this. I am absolutely not talking about whether there is pushing and shoving after the whistle. I see him communicate on the ice and on the bench, but that's not what I'm talking about either.

ROR has graduated to a place of total respect among his peers. He clearly operates from a place of inner competition. He is competing against the standards he has for himself. That is how he measures his own performance. He holds himself totally accountable. He competes for pucks relentlessly. When you have your captain doing that all the time, and you see it up close, and you consider yourself an important part of the team, you have a constant model of the relentless mentality it takes to create separation between great and just very very good in the playoffs. His teammates who consider themselves talented and prideful athletes cannot be around that kind of effort and give less effort, because it would be glaring (the way it often has been with Kyrou). That is what is meant by being dragged into the fight. When you are certain the captain and leader holds himself accountable, that is contagious.

If he goes onto the market there are going to be a lot of contenders salivating to add him for the reasons described. Bergeron is six years older and he is still effective.

 

[Daley Tarasenkshow]

Since you're challenging the concept let me restate what I observe out of ROR and what I mean by this. I am absolutely not talking about whether there is pushing and shoving after the whistle. I see him communicate on the ice and on the bench, but that's not what I'm talking about either.

ROR has graduated to a place of total respect among his peers. He clearly operates from a place of inner competition. He is competing against the standards he has for himself. That is how he measures his own performance. He holds himself totally accountable. He competes for pucks relentlessly. When you have your captain doing that all the time, and you see it up close, and you consider yourself an important part of the team, you have a constant model of the relentless mentality it takes to create separation between great and just very very good in the playoffs. His teammates who consider themselves talented and prideful athletes cannot be around that kind of effort and give less effort, because it would be glaring (the way it often has been with Kyrou). That is what is meant by being dragged into the fight. When you are certain the captain and leader holds himself accountable, that is contagious.

If he goes onto the market there are going to be a lot of contenders salivating to add him for the reasons described. Bergeron is six years older and he is still effective.

I appreciate the response. What you outlined makes complete sense to me, especially in regards to ROR. I guess the term ‘fight’ in the phrase in question really isn’t about physicality. Which is where my mind goes when hearing that term.

He’s a true leader by example, and I guess that’s really the way he drags people into the fight.

 

[PocketNines]

I appreciate the response. What you outlined makes complete sense to me, especially in regards to ROR. I guess the term ‘fight’ in the phrase in question really isn’t about physicality. Which is where my mind goes when hearing that term.

He’s a true leader by example, and I guess that’s really the way he drags people into the fight.

Bergeron played 317 games, had 141 goals, 170 assists, 311 points during his five age 32-36 seasons. Still a very effective playoff player with 24 goals, 33 assists in 66 playoff games. That's the gold standard and probably the ceiling on what to hope for from ROR.

With ROR, I'm an optimist. He's a special player and I think he can come close to that performance. It's easy to imagine other GMs also being optimists on this as well. It's priceless to have a player you can simply trust in all situations on the ice.

I understand why other Blues fans want to pay less, and I would too, but IMO 5x8 is not inappropriate when we're being honest about everything this player brings.

 

[BlueDream]

I'm not trying to target this at you, but I've always found this phrase so overused in discussing hockey. Who are the fans to judge or say if someone is doing this? ROR rarely engages after the whistle, and really doesn't seem to be a very vocal player both during or after play. He's not the type of player I would characterize as someone who 'drags talent into the fight', but because he's a captain and plays a two-way game he gets this title, to me. Competitiveness is too broad to characterize as this.

If he wasn’t a vocal player he wouldn’t be the captain of the team.

Yes he primarily leads by example but he’s definitely vocal. You can’t sit there quietly if you have the C on your chest. That doesn’t happen.

 

[Bye Bye Blueston]

If he wasn’t a vocal player he wouldn’t be the captain of the team.

Yes he primarily leads by example but he’s definitely vocal. You can’t sit there quietly if you have the C on your chest. That doesn’t happen.

Not sure I agree. So many teams are giving C to best player, regardless of whether they show traditional leadership traits. Petro, for example. Because if they are top player, the others generally look to them regardless of how much they speak up.

 

[BlueDream]

Not sure I agree. So many teams are giving C to best player, regardless of whether they show traditional leadership traits. Petro, for example. Because if they are top player, the others generally look to them regardless of how much they speak up.

Petro was known for never shutting up on the bench though, he talked a lot.

He was the unanimous pick for captain among fans when Backes left because of the traits he showed. So I don’t agree with that example.

There’s tons of star players in the league who aren’t captain because they don’t have those traits. Calgary didn’t even give Johnny Gaudreau an ‘A’.

 

[Bye Bye Blueston]

Petro was known for never shutting up on the bench though, he talked a lot.

He was the unanimous pick for captain among fans when Backes left because of the traits he showed. So I don’t agree with that example.

There’s tons of star players in the league who aren’t captain because they don’t have those traits. Calgary didn’t even give Johnny Gaudreau an ‘A’.

No. First, many of us thought it should have been Steen since he was soul of the team.

Second, citing examples of players who aren't captains is irrelevant to the point that guys who are stars are often named captain because they are stars. And I'm not even saying that is bad idea. McDavid, Suzuki, Hischier, Stamkos, Crosby, Eichel, etc.. these guys were all captains at young age. Are you saying it's not because they were young stars who team wanted to build around?

 

[Xerloris]

Petro was known for never shutting up on the bench though, he talked a lot.

He was the unanimous pick for captain among fans when Backes left because of the traits he showed. So I don’t agree with that example.

There’s tons of star players in the league who aren’t captain because they don’t have those traits. Calgary didn’t even give Johnny Gaudreau an ‘A’.

Pretty sure most fans that have knowledge of the sport all thought it should be Steen.