Brian39
Registered User
- Apr 24, 2014
- 7,783
- 14,857
What happens if he signs an 8 year extension and then scores 60 goals a year?What happens when he gets his knee shit on like what happened to Fabbri and instead of a nice fat 8 year deal he had that little 4 or 5 year deal?
Fabbri was 2 ACL tears deep at 22 years old. Kyrou is currently 24 and has shown no indication that he is injury prone. He could still undergo several injuries, as could any player. But the odds of injuries derailing his ability to continue earning money into his 30s are much smaller than the odds that he breaks out into a truly elite, $10M player. Fabbri got $4M a year for 3 years without ever demonstrating a fully healthy season with the Wings by the way. Using Fabbri as the barometer, Kyrou would still be able to earn $10-$15M in his early 30s if he was hobbled but still capable of playing top 6 minutes.
There is risk in every contract decision. Taking $38M on a 5 year deal instead of $56M on an 8 year deal is $18M less guaranteed money with the chance to make up that $18M and more if you are still productive at 30. Taking the $56M over the $38M guarantees that extra $18M, but risks your ability to make $30 or $40M more in the future.
There is risk each way, the question is simply how much you want to bet on yourself. it's easier to bet on yourself to maximize future earnings when the "worst case" of a career-ending injury is that you "only" have $40M of career earnings to fall back on.