2021-2022 S Blues Multi-Purpose Thread Part 3

[STL fan in MN]

Finally only 2 weeks away from camp opening. Ready for hockey season to begin.

Thinking about the roster and I really think Tyler Pitlick will end up making the team. Of course it depends on how he performs in camp but when you look at his skillset, he screams Scottie Upshall to me. He has speed, is reliable defensively, plays the PK, blocks shots and is physical, all while being able to chip in some offense here and there. They are very similar players.

When you look at our other options, Toro is obviously injured, Kostin is a question mark, and guys like Brown, Leivo and Frk aren't really 4th line guys. They can play there in a pinch, but you don't really want them starting there every game. Walker probably falls into that category too as a guy who will be moved around a bit.

I think Pitlick and Acciari give us a veteran duo that we can rely on similar to Upshall/Brodziak and to a lesser extent even Barbashev/Sundqvist. I see those two setting the tone for the identity of the line, and the other winger will probably be a rotation of guys like Walker, Kostin or whoever else.

Just something I’ve been thinking about. The Blues are one of those teams that don’t just give out PTOs for nothing. Our PTOs usually have a legitimate chance to stick: Neal, the aforementioned Upshall, Brouwer the second time around, and even though it was a different situation, Hoffman too.

That’s an interesting take but given what a question mark our 4th line is heading into camp, I think you very well may be right.

As of now, the only guy with an actual contract that actually projects as a 4th line guy is Acciari. As you said, others can fit there but most are ideally 3rd line bubble guys that may not bring the elements Chief would want in an everyday 4th liner.

Camp should be interesting.

I think one of the main things I’ll be looking for in camp is if they’re able to move a d-man (ideally Scandella) to solve two “problems”. Currently, they have 8 NHL caliber d-men and with Scandella, can only have a 22-man roster and be cap compliant. So if Scandella stays, that likely means Perunovich and a forward that would otherwise make the team will start in Springfield.

 

[MissouriMook]

That's how the business works. The fact that Perron only got 750k more from Detroit than we offered shows that he may have overestimated the offers he'd get on the open market. As much as I like Perron, a team with 9 20-goal scorers can probably afford to lose one of them. People complained about the defense all year, so it shouldn't be a surprise he prioritized defense over offense this offseason.

People can talk about Army's hard-line approach, but I bet most GMs would do the same in his situation. At least most successful ones.

Absolutely agree.

The thing about this situation that tends to get lost in our fandom is that the team needed to spend $4M next year on defense more than it did on offense, and we didn't have the cap space to do both. Put another way, we can fill the hole at RW internally far easier than we could fill the hole at LD. Like it or not, and regardless of your feelings about the fact that it was Army's roster management that put us in that situation in the offseason, the GM needs to do what's best for the roster. That's logic.

As fans, we can easily see it as Army valuing Leddy over Perron. That's emotion.

This was not about playing "hard ball" with a player, it was about building the best team he could with the options (cap space and internal replacements) he had available. We can argue about how well or poorly the man is doing his job, but I don't see an argument that this was personal and not professional. Fans have the luxury of having favorite players and seeing transactions through an emotion lens. Managers, at least the good ones, don't see things that way and prioritize winning over keeping fan favorites and guys you like personally. Sometimes you have the opportunity to do both, but logic should always win over emotion when it comes to making these decisions.

 

[Brian39]

think one of the main things I’ll be looking for in camp is if they’re able to move and-man (ideally Scandella) to solve two “problems”. Currently, they have 8 NHL caliber d-men and with Scandella, can only have a 22-man roster and be cap compliant. So if Scandella stays, that likely means Perunovich and a forward that would otherwise make the team will start in Springfield.

I think it is worth noting that we don't need to get Scandella out of the organization in order to run a 23 man roster. We can waive him and get enough cap relief to fit in Perunovich and that other forward even if he is not claimed and is sent to the AHL. Sending him down to the AHL would give the team $1.125M in additional cap space beyond the $625k cap friendly currently shows. That give you $1.75M to fill 2 roster spaces. Perunovich makes $750k, so you're left with $1M for that last forward. Waiving Scandella gives you enough to run this 23 man roster with $20k to spare:

Saad-ROR-Kyrou
Schenn-Thomas-Buch
Neighbours-Barby-Tarasenko
$750k-Acciari-$750k
Bolduc-$750k

Leddy-Parayko
Krug-Faulk
Mikkola-Bortz
Perunovich

Binner
Greiss

I don't think the plan is for Neighbours AND Bolduc to make the opening night roster, but I penciled them into it because they make a bit more money than our wave of league minimum players. I wanted to illustrate that simply parking Scandella in the AHL would allow both of them a legitimate chance to earn a roster spot.

Brown, Kostin, Frk, Walker, Torpo, and Leivo all make $750k. If Pitlick turns his PTO into a contract, you have to expect that it will be league minimum. Assuming Torpo starts on LTIR (to avoid waivers), that's still 6 guys competing for the three "$750k" slots and the two slots I penciled Neighbours and Bolduc into.

I'm not 100% sold that the Blues view Scandella as quite the expendable anchor that the fanbase does. He is a massive contributor to a top tier PK and (cap concerns aside) is genuinely a 3rd pair NHL D man. Contracts aside, he's legitimately a #5 NHL D man. I won't be shocked if the team opts to play cap games for a while to delay/avoid waiving Scandella. However, the fact that they gave Mikkola $1.9M and haven't traded him tells me that they want him playing more often than not. That could be the writing on the wall that the team has moved on from Scandella.

If the team is ready to move on from Scandella, putting him on waivers solves the cap issue. You clear $3.275M if a team claims him and if he clears waivers you still create enough space to make the cap work with a 23 man roster that includes whichever 14 forwards you believe most deserve to be there. I'm starting to see why Army wasn't willing to pay anything of value to shed Scandella over the summer. We built good depth without shedding his cap space and his cap space wasn't enough alone to fit an upgrade into any position of need. Paying to move him only made sense if there was another (larger) deal worked out and that never came true. Maybe the day comes when we have a deal in place that necessitates paying a team to take Scandella. But we haven't needed to yet and the number of league minimum deals we signed allows us to make the cap work with our internal roster simply by burying him in the AHL.

 

[Bye Bye Blueston]

I think it is worth noting that we don't need to get Scandella out of the organization in order to run a 23 man roster. We can waive him and get enough cap relief to fit in Perunovich and that other forward even if he is not claimed and is sent to the AHL. Sending him down to the AHL would give the team $1.125M in additional cap space beyond the $625k cap friendly currently shows. That give you $1.75M to fill 2 roster spaces. Perunovich makes $750k, so you're left with $1M for that last forward. Waiving Scandella gives you enough to run this 23 man roster with $20k to spare:

Saad-ROR-Kyrou
Schenn-Thomas-Buch
Neighbours-Barby-Tarasenko
$750k-Acciari-$750k
Bolduc-$750k

Leddy-Parayko
Krug-Faulk
Mikkola-Bortz
Perunovich

Binner
Greiss

I don't think the plan is for Neighbours AND Bolduc to make the opening night roster, but I penciled them into it because they make a bit more money than our wave of league minimum players. I wanted to illustrate that simply parking Scandella in the AHL would allow both of them a legitimate chance to earn a roster spot.

Brown, Kostin, Frk, Walker, Torpo, and Leivo all make $750k. If Pitlick turns his PTO into a contract, you have to expect that it will be league minimum. Assuming Torpo starts on LTIR (to avoid waivers), that's still 6 guys competing for the three "$750k" slots and the two slots I penciled Neighbours and Bolduc into.

I'm not 100% sold that the Blues view Scandella as quite the expendable anchor that the fanbase does. He is a massive contributor to a top tier PK and (cap concerns aside) is genuinely a 3rd pair NHL D man. Contracts aside, he's legitimately a #5 NHL D man. I won't be shocked if the team opts to play cap games for a while to delay/avoid waiving Scandella. However, the fact that they gave Mikkola $1.9M and haven't traded him tells me that they want him playing more often than not. That could be the writing on the wall that the team has moved on from Scandella.

If the team is ready to move on from Scandella, putting him on waivers solves the cap issue. You clear $3.275M if a team claims him and if he clears waivers you still create enough space to make the cap work with a 23 man roster that includes whichever 14 forwards you believe most deserve to be there. I'm starting to see why Army wasn't willing to pay anything of value to shed Scandella over the summer. We build goo depth without shedding his cap space and his cap space wasn't enough alone to fit an upgrade into any position of need. Paying to move him only made sense if there was another (larger) deal worked out and that never came true. Maybe the day comes when we have a deal in place that necessitates paying a team to take Scandella. But we haven't needed to yet and the number of league minimum deals we signed allows us to make the cap work with our internal roster simply by burying him in the AHL.

I’m not so sure they value Mikkola over Scandella. Sending Miko down accomplishes same thing cap wise.

 

[STL fan in MN]

I think it is worth noting that we don't need to get Scandella out of the organization in order to run a 23 man roster. We can waive him and get enough cap relief to fit in Perunovich and that other forward even if he is not claimed and is sent to the AHL. Sending him down to the AHL would give the team $1.125M in additional cap space beyond the $625k cap friendly currently shows. That give you $1.75M to fill 2 roster spaces. Perunovich makes $750k, so you're left with $1M for that last forward. Waiving Scandella gives you enough to run this 23 man roster with $20k to spare:

Saad-ROR-Kyrou
Schenn-Thomas-Buch
Neighbours-Barby-Tarasenko
$750k-Acciari-$750k
Bolduc-$750k

Leddy-Parayko
Krug-Faulk
Mikkola-Bortz
Perunovich

Binner
Greiss

I don't think the plan is for Neighbours AND Bolduc to make the opening night roster, but I penciled them into it because they make a bit more money than our wave of league minimum players. I wanted to illustrate that simply parking Scandella in the AHL would allow both of them a legitimate chance to earn a roster spot.

Brown, Kostin, Frk, Walker, Torpo, and Leivo all make $750k. If Pitlick turns his PTO into a contract, you have to expect that it will be league minimum. Assuming Torpo starts on LTIR (to avoid waivers), that's still 6 guys competing for the three "$750k" slots and the two slots I penciled Neighbours and Bolduc into.

I'm not 100% sold that the Blues view Scandella as quite the expendable anchor that the fanbase does. He is a massive contributor to a top tier PK and (cap concerns aside) is genuinely a 3rd pair NHL D man. Contracts aside, he's legitimately a #5 NHL D man. I won't be shocked if the team opts to play cap games for a while to delay/avoid waiving Scandella. However, the fact that they gave Mikkola $1.9M and haven't traded him tells me that they want him playing more often than not. That could be the writing on the wall that the team has moved on from Scandella.

If the team is ready to move on from Scandella, putting him on waivers solves the cap issue. You clear $3.275M if a team claims him and if he clears waivers you still create enough space to make the cap work with a 23 man roster that includes whichever 14 forwards you believe most deserve to be there. I'm starting to see why Army wasn't willing to pay anything of value to shed Scandella over the summer. We build goo depth without shedding his cap space and his cap space wasn't enough alone to fit an upgrade into any position of need. Paying to move him only made sense if there was another (larger) deal worked out and that never came true. Maybe the day comes when we have a deal in place that necessitates paying a team to take Scandella. But we haven't needed to yet and the number of league minimum deals we signed allows us to make the cap work with our internal roster simply by burying him in the AHL.

Absolutely an option sending Scandella through waivers to solve the “problem”. And I put “problem” in quotes as generally speaking, you can never have enough quality d-men so Army very likely doesn’t even see it as much of a problem himself. And the “problem” may more or less solve itself if one of the 8 gets injured in camp/preseason (although additional injuries could cause more cap issues).

I simply didn’t consider it as very likely that Army would consider putting Scandella on waivers. As you said, contract aside, Scandella is still very much an NHL caliber d-man. The problem is his contract reflects being Parayko’s partner as the #4 guy. He simply isn’t that caliber of player anymore.

But yes, many ways to solve the “problem” and putting Scandella on waivers is certainly one of them.

 

[Brian39]

I’m not so sure they value Mikkola over Scandella. Sending Miko down accomplishes same thing cap wise.

It accomplishes the same thing cap wise today. However, why qualify him and then give him $1.9M if you view him as your #8 D man? Simply not qualifying him would have created $775k more cap space than extending him and then promptly treating him as the odd man out from the 7 man D unit.

The upside of "he would be our first injury call up if he clears waivers" doesn't seem worth the $775k cap hit of burying him in the minors.

You could absolutely be right and that's part of the reason I'm not sold that Scandella gets waived. I wouldn't be surprised if Mikkola is the odd man out, but the extension made me believe that the Blues want him to be the 3LD this year (and are hoping that Perunovich develops and plays enough NHL time to merit being that guy next season).

 

[Bye Bye Blueston]

It accomplishes the same thing cap wise today. However, why qualify him and then give him $1.9M if you view him as your #8 D man? Simply not qualifying him would have created $775k more cap space than extending him and then promptly treating him as the odd man out from the 7 man D unit.

The upside of "he would be our first injury call up if he clears waivers" doesn't seem worth the $775k cap hit of burying him in the minors.

DA likes to keep his options open. At the time he signed we had filled out rest of roster, so DA was comfortable we could bury someone if Perunovich makes team. Still, I think we deal one of them in camp.

 

[Reality Czech]

Absolutely agree.

The thing about this situation that tends to get lost in our fandom is that the team needed to spend $4M next year on defense more than it did on offense, and we didn't have the cap space to do both. Put another way, we can fill the hole at RW internally far easier than we could fill the hole at LD. Like it or not, and regardless of your feelings about the fact that it was Army's roster management that put us in that situation in the offseason, the GM needs to do what's best for the roster. That's logic.

As fans, we can easily see it as Army valuing Leddy over Perron. That's emotion.

This was not about playing "hard ball" with a player, it was about building the best team he could with the options (cap space and internal replacements) he had available. We can argue about how well or poorly the man is doing his job, but I don't see an argument that this was personal and not professional. Fans have the luxury of having favorite players and seeing transactions through an emotion lens. Managers, at least the good ones, don't see things that way and prioritize winning over keeping fan favorites and guys you like personally. Sometimes you have the opportunity to do both, but logic should always win over emotion when it comes to making these decisions.

Couldn't have said it any better.

Regarding Scandella, I wouldn't say it's wise cap management to simply waive him and if defense is our biggest weakness as many people believe, giving up our 2nd best penalty killer doesn't sound like a wise move.

While I certainly hope we don't have as many injury issues as well had last year, I think the injuries are still fresh in Army's mind. I'd rather go into the season with one extra body than not. If Perunovich starts the year in the ahl, I don't see it as a bad thing. He can work on his defensive game and will be ready when inevitable injuries occur. With Krug and Leddy on the roster, I'd keep Mikkola over Peru at this point.

 

[Brian39]

Couldn't have said it any better.

Regarding Scandella, I wouldn't say it's wise cap management to simply waive him and if defense is our biggest weakness as many people believe, giving up our 2nd best penalty killer doesn't sound like a wise move.

While I certainly hope we don't have as many injury issues as well had last year, I think the injuries are still fresh in Army's mind. I'd rather go into the season with one extra body than not. If Perunovich starts the year in the ahl, I don't see it as a bad thing. He can work on his defensive game and will be ready when inevitable injuries occur. With Krug and Leddy on the roster, I'd keep Mikkola over Peru at this point.

I tend to agree with your opinion that the D is better an opening night if Perunovich is the odd man out. However, Perunovich having to bide his time in the AHL isn't the main issue with going that route. The bigger issue is that keeping Scandella and Mikkola on the roster limits us to a 22 man roster that only has 13 forwards.

That has a cascade of consequences:

It forces you to dress 11 forwards when you have two simultaneous short-term forward injuries. We watched that parade in the middle of last season and it wasn't great. If you're worried about injuries, the added risk of playing short a man up front has to be weighed against the quality of your blue line depth.

It forces you to risk more of your forward depth to waivers. Neighbours and Bolduc are the only waiver exempt forwards we have with any shot at making the roster. Going from 14 to 13 forwards means that no matter how you slice it, another piece of forward depth goes on waivers (or if Bolduc is the casualty it means he has to go to junior for the full year).

It is harder to justify a 9 game trial for Bolduc unless he proves that he is absolutely ready to play in the top 9. it's easier to ease him along to NHL readiness if there is an extra healthy scratch ahead of him on the depth chart.

At the end of the day, choosing both Scandella and Mikkola over Perunovich costs you a forward on your roster with the potential of losing that forward to waivers. That has to be factored in when you think about the risk of weakening your 7th/8th D option by placing one of Scandella/Mikkola on waivers. I don't think it is unreasonable to think that Perunovich could be the odd man out, but that decision impacts the forward group and makes the team less able to react to injuries overall.

 

[Reality Czech]

I tend to agree with your opinion that the D is better an opening night if Perunovich is the odd man out. However, Perunovich having to bide his time in the AHL isn't the main issue with going that route. The bigger issue is that keeping Scandella and Mikkola on the roster limits us to a 22 man roster that only has 13 forwards.

That has a cascade of consequences:

It forces you to dress 11 forwards when you have two simultaneous short-term forward injuries. We watched that parade in the middle of last season and it wasn't great. If you're worried about injuries, the added risk of playing short a man up front has to be weighed against the quality of your blue line depth.

It forces you to risk more of your forward depth to waivers. Neighbours and Bolduc are the only waiver exempt forwards we have with any shot at making the roster. Going from 14 to 13 forwards means that no matter how you slice it, another piece of forward depth goes on waivers (or if Bolduc is the casualty it means he has to go to junior for the full year).

It is harder to justify a 9 game trial for Bolduc unless he proves that he is absolutely ready to play in the top 9. it's easier to ease him along to NHL readiness if there is an extra healthy scratch ahead of him on the depth chart.

At the end of the day, choosing both Scandella and Mikkola over Perunovich costs you a forward on your roster with the potential of losing that forward to waivers. That has to be factored in when you think about the risk of weakening your 7th/8th D option by placing one of Scandella/Mikkola on waivers. I don't think it is unreasonable to think that Perunovich could be the odd man out, but that decision impacts the forward group and makes the team less able to react to injuries overall.

Nothing gets past you, my friend. Good points. Maybe an injury in training camp will make our decision easier, or another team will be in the market for a defenseman after they have an early injury. Mikkola might be able to provide most of what Scandella can, but I wouldn't count on it 100%. The experience he gained last year should benefit him a lot.

 

[Stupendous Yappi]

It accomplishes the same thing cap wise today. However, why qualify him and then give him $1.9M if you view him as your #8 D man? Simply not qualifying him would have created $775k more cap space than extending him and then promptly treating him as the odd man out from the 7 man D unit.

The upside of "he would be our first injury call up if he clears waivers" doesn't seem worth the $775k cap hit of burying him in the minors.

You could absolutely be right and that's part of the reason I'm not sold that Scandella gets waived. I wouldn't be surprised if Mikkola is the odd man out, but the extension made me believe that the Blues want him to be the 3LD this year (and are hoping that Perunovich develops and plays enough NHL time to merit being that guy next season).

Deterrent to someone claiming him off waivers? (Not a huge one, but still...)

 

[Stupendous Yappi]

Finally only 2 weeks away from camp opening. Ready for hockey season to begin.

Thinking about the roster and I really think Tyler Pitlick will end up making the team. Of course it depends on how he performs in camp but when you look at his skillset, he screams Scottie Upshall to me. He has speed, is reliable defensively, plays the PK, blocks shots and is physical, all while being able to chip in some offense here and there. They are very similar players.

When you look at our other options, Toro is obviously injured, Kostin is a question mark, and guys like Brown, Leivo and Frk aren't really 4th line guys. They can play there in a pinch, but you don't really want them starting there every game. Walker probably falls into that category too as a guy who will be moved around a bit.

I think Pitlick and Acciari give us a veteran duo that we can rely on similar to Upshall/Brodziak and to a lesser extent even Barbashev/Sundqvist. I see those two setting the tone for the identity of the line, and the other winger will probably be a rotation of guys like Walker, Kostin or whoever else.

Just something I’ve been thinking about. The Blues are one of those teams that don’t just give out PTOs for nothing. Our PTOs usually have a legitimate chance to stick: Neal, the aforementioned Upshall, Brouwer the second time around, and even though it was a different situation, Hoffman too.

Good post.

Toropchenko is a 4th liner, but he's out for a while. I think any dream Kostin has of making it in the NHL goes through the 4th line. He's going to have to show he's more deserving than Pitlick.

I also think Brown's best chance for success is to mold himself into an effective 4th liner. He has the size and sufficient speed to do it, but hasn't shown the mentality for it. It doesn't mean I view him as a career 4th liner, but I don't see him getting his skill into the NHL unless he can play on the 4th line. It would make him versatile enough to stick on the roster. (I wouldn't put much stock in him being able to make that change to his game. As I've said before, he needs to follow Blais' developmental path.)

I agree Pitlick has a good chance to make the roster, and one of Brown or Kostin are likely to be casualties.

How realistically ready is Bolduc? Could he come to camp and steal a spot?

 

[PocketNines]

Scandella ... is a massive contributor to a top tier PK and (cap concerns aside) is genuinely a 3rd pair NHL D man. Contracts aside, he's legitimately a #5 NHL D man.

This is the core of it. Having a reliably strong PK is part of the recipe for this Blues team winning.

 

[bleedblue1223]

 

[Linkens Mastery]

I suspect a 7.5-8.25m a year for 7-8 years. Could see as low as 7.25.

 

[PocketNines]

Is that a Strick Nasty diarrhea fart?

 

[STL fan in MN]

Assuming it happens, I will guess $7.7M x 8 years.

 

[TheDizee]

think i may get tickets for Nov 17th vs Washington so I can see Chuckie beat the Blues and armstrong.

 

[Stealth JD]

think i may get tickets for Nov 17th vs Washington so I can see Chuckie beat the Blues and armstrong.

Your fandom is inspiring.

There's simply no way Army was going three years on Lindgren; once Charlie got that he'd have been foolish to turn it down. Professionals (good ones, anyway) don't make decisions on emotion, and hence Army's decision to go short term on someone else.

 

[Frenzy31]

So the Strick nasty guarantee. Does that mean he is being traded to Florida?

 

[STL fan in MN]

think i may get tickets for Nov 17th vs Washington so I can see Chuckie beat the Blues and armstrong.

I’d suggest splurging for tickets right behind the Caps bench. As the backup goalie, odds are he’ll be sitting right there all night so you should be able to see him and his glorious sideburns up close.

 

[Brian39]

I'm with Strickland that 35 goals and 85 points is very realistic for Kyrou. He had 27 goals and 75 points in 74 games from the 2nd PP unit. A promotion to the 1st unit would give him an amazing chance to hit those numbers.

I'm not sold that either side is eager to sign an 8 year extension. He'd be 33 by the end of an 8 year extension and his game is built around speed. I very much doubt he's still playing well enough by 33 to get another fat contract in UFA. However, I bet he's still good enough to get a nice 5 or 6 year contract if he were to hit the UFA market at 30. I'd guess that his ideal contract would be a 2-3 year deal that sees him hit UFA at 27 or 28.

The Blues aren't going to give him anything like the AAV he wants on a 2-3 year deal. The only way we're letting him get to market that quickly is if it is on a significant AAV discount that allows us to tangibly upgrade somewhere else on the roster with the savings. So we will want more term, but are we really eager to lock another guy up for 8 years unless it brings down the AAV? Are we confident that he'll still be performing at/near his prime when he's 31-33?

If I'm Kyrou, I'm not selling my age 31-33 years at a discount to bring down the AAV of my 25-30 years. I'd want to get my "mid 20s" value in those final years if I'm giving up the chance to hit UFA while I'm still young enough to get the big bag.

Honestly, if we're talking about an AAV in the 7s, it feels like there is incentive for both sides to make this a 4-6 year extension. Kyrou would want 4, the Blues would want 6 and meet in the middle at 5. That lets Kyrou hit UFA a couple months after turning 30 and it gives the Blues the entirety of his 20s. The cap will have risen by a large margin at that point, so a 70+ season at 29 years old would probably give him a decent chance of a 7 year deal at $10M+ AAV. That's probably $30-40M more than he'd get as a 33 year old hitting UFA. If I were him, I'd think long and hard about giving up $15-$20M of total dollars today to give myself a chance at that kind of cash in.

I could be wrong about Kyrou's desires. Maybe he and his agent don't care about the consequences on the next contract and just want to lock in as much guaranteed money today as possible. Try to lock in a $50M+ bag and let the chips fall where they may when he hits free agency at 33. If that's the case, then I hope Army plays a bit of hardball to drive that AAV down as much as possible.

 

[bleedblue1223]

I'm with Strickland that 35 goals and 85 points is very realistic for Kyrou. He had 27 goals and 75 points in 74 games from the 2nd PP unit. A promotion to the 1st unit would give him an amazing chance to hit those numbers.

Yeah, that's not much of a hot take. It's more or less his production this past season, but over 82 games. 30-35 goals and something around ppg or a tad over. With Perron gone, he should get some more offensive opportunities too.

 

[Xerloris]

I'm with Strickland that 35 goals and 85 points is very realistic for Kyrou. He had 27 goals and 75 points in 74 games from the 2nd PP unit. A promotion to the 1st unit would give him an amazing chance to hit those numbers.

I'm not sold that either side is eager to sign an 8 year extension. He'd be 33 by the end of an 8 year extension and his game is built around speed. I very much doubt he's still playing well enough by 33 to get another fat contract in UFA. However, I bet he's still good enough to get a nice 5 or 6 year contract if he were to hit the UFA market at 30. I'd guess that his ideal contract would be a 2-3 year deal that sees him hit UFA at 27 or 28.

The Blues aren't going to give him anything like the AAV he wants on a 2-3 year deal. The only way we're letting him get to market that quickly is if it is on a significant AAV discount that allows us to tangibly upgrade somewhere else on the roster with the savings. So we will want more term, but are we really eager to lock another guy up for 8 years unless it brings down the AAV? Are we confident that he'll still be performing at/near his prime when he's 31-33?

If I'm Kyrou, I'm not selling my age 31-33 years at a discount to bring down the AAV of my 25-30 years. I'd want to get my "mid 20s" value in those final years if I'm giving up the chance to hit UFA while I'm still young enough to get the big bag.

Honestly, if we're talking about an AAV in the 7s, it feels like there is incentive for both sides to make this a 4-6 year extension. Kyrou would want 4, the Blues would want 6 and meet in the middle at 5. That lets Kyrou hit UFA a couple months after turning 30 and it gives the Blues the entirety of his 20s. The cap will have risen by a large margin at that point, so a 70+ season at 29 years old would probably give him a decent chance of a 7 year deal at $10M+ AAV. That's probably $30-40M more than he'd get as a 33 year old hitting UFA. If I were him, I'd think long and hard about giving up $15-$20M of total dollars today to give myself a chance at that kind of cash in.

I could be wrong about Kyrou's desires. Maybe he and his agent don't care about the consequences on the next contract and just want to lock in as much guaranteed money today as possible. Try to lock in a $50M+ bag and let the chips fall where they may when he hits free agency at 33. If that's the case, then I hope Army plays a bit of hardball to drive that AAV down as much as possible.

What happens when he gets his knee shit on like what happened to Fabbri and instead of a nice fat 8 year deal he had that little 4 or 5 year deal?

 

[ChicagoBlues]

What happens when he gets his knee shit on like what happened to Fabbri and instead of a nice fat 8 year deal he had that little 4 or 5 year deal?

What if the ice suddenly melts and everyone falls over?